Billsflyer12
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Posts posted by Billsflyer12
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As a guy whose mind is wired for data and numbers, I certainly appreciate that not all minds think the same way. There are times I wish my mind didn't.
Maybe the best example I can think of is buying a house. You find a house you love, most people then look at price, comps, Sq Ft, school rankings and many others pieces of data that paints a picture. At end of the day some use that data to form a risk analysis that tells them weather it is a smart investment. Others will just look at the house they love and say who cares, we can fix the house up and help fix up the neighborhood, we can make it better.
I guess neither is right and wrong. I prefer to use data, to form a picture that increases my probability of success. It is not 100%, like any data there are outliers, I hope Josh Allen is one of them.
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6 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:
What is “adjusted completion percentage”?
You can put numbers around anything. Whether they mean anything or not is another matter.
Adjusted Completion Percentage = (Completions + Drops) / (Pass Attempts – Spikes – Throwaways – Batted Balls – Balls disrupted by a QB hit)
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46 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:
Allen threw the ball 373 times in 2016 and 270 times in 2017. Wyoming lost a lot of talented offensive players after the 2016 season.
Yet, he ranked 101st out of 133 qualifiers in adjusted completion percentage in 2016.
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19 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:
The analytical writers know the what, but have no idea how to explain the why.
It looks to me as if they're making predictions based on numbers but completely ignoring context. They're comparing the completion percentage of a guy at Wyoming to a guy at Oklahoma, which is absolutely absurd.
College stats are more about the offensive system than the quarterback.
Is this Context? Good news is there are a couple of comparable that say it may work. Almost all say it won't.
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30 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
SBNation had a write-up here: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons
I have posted this and a couple of other write-ups, not sure a single person has actually opened and read them. Was wondering the percentage of posters here like or believe in data and stats, looks like most don't care.
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6 minutes ago, cba fan said:
Analytics does not to my knowledge factor in the fact Josh Allen throws the ball much further in the air and it effects his accuracy.
Can't find it back but a link showed Allen throws the ball further than others in the air before it hits a receiver.
He sounds like a downfield thrower and we have wanted that for years.
If true, he is terrible at it.
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30 minutes ago, Like A Mofo said:
Question: I hard one draft expert on WGR a few days ago state 'The analytics suggest that Josh Allen will not become a franchise QB'
What analytics is he referring to? Anyone know where they are available?
Thanks in advance
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons
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With Beane and McD, one now must ask if potential draftee or signee fits into their “faith, family, football,” and unfortunately it may be in that order.
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I am equaled annoyed that if you at all question your teams decisions, you are not a real fan. Fandom is not blind loyality and shouldn’t be.
I am not huge fan of Beane or McD, and I hate the Allen pick. I vented for a couple of days and explained why I hated it so much. Yet, I am moving on. I don’t have the energy or desire to keep fighting something I can’t change.
The Bills have been my team for 45 years. It never has benn, or will never a be unconditional. I will not like hires, picks and game plans, and that is ok. I will voice my concerns when I feel they are really a true concern.
My excitement for the future took a big hit Thursday, but at end of day I will still be watching Sundays from here in Colorado.
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8 minutes ago, Need4speed12000 said:
Even the best qbs need time in the nfl to learn defensive schemes, new playbooks.........this is not a very valid or accurate article to judge a qb lol
But 1st round QB draft picks don't get time to learn.
4 minutes ago, Need4speed12000 said:Well I guess when Allen is inducted into the HOF, you can put your doubts to rest lol
I hope Im wrong, but almost every data point says otherwise.
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2 minutes ago, Need4speed12000 said:
Carson Wentz proves this theory wrong.......in his 2nd year of pro although only playing 13 games he exceeded his numbers of yards, tds, and less into then his best year in college.....
Wentz has yet to get to 4 years, they did mention Goff, as one who has recovered in NFL from one year to the next. Even if 1 or 2 outliers do come about, doesn't prove theory wrong. The chance that all of these QB have generally reached their statistical ceiling in college is overwhelmingly high.
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1 minute ago, Need4speed12000 said:
Read your article again, it’s says first 4 years of pro........not many qbs are instant stars in their first few years......
The article specifically states why they use the first 4 years as a benchmark along with other details in the paragraphs that follow.
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4 minutes ago, Need4speed12000 said:
From what they do on the field in the nfl. Your just seeing their mechanics, leadership, drive to win, situational plays, etc from college. We all know the nfl is another level and it’s taught by the coaches and veterans. You don’t become a race car driver just because you got your license, you learn to drive. Throw him at the helm, and you will see what Allen can really do for the Bills.....
But the data out there says your theory is not true. Of the 38 QB drafted between 2010-2017 that have thrown at least 300 NFL passes, NONE of them have exceeded their college success rate in their 1st 4 years in the pros. (1ST 4 years used as that is their rookie contract length). In other words their college numbers are their ceiling.
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8 minutes ago, SWATeam said:
I do it with my eyeballs
Your eyeballs told you that Allen was a better QB then Rosen or even Jackson?
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4 minutes ago, slaphappy said:
If you were done with dink and dunk QB's you now have the opposite of a dink and dunk QB... rejoice and be glad.
Another myth.
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2 minutes ago, Need4speed12000 said:
No silly is saying a qb is garbage because of college stats period.......both Favre and Brady both had mediocre at best in yards, percentage, and tds.........doesn’t mean they are gonna be crap, which is my point here......
So how then are we suppose to judge college QBs?
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On 4/27/2018 at 11:23 AM, jeremy2020 said:
What analytics are being ignored? Could you post the stats that indicate QB success in the NFL that Rosen/Allen have/don't have?
Just about ALL of them.
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons
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25 minutes ago, No Cease Fires said:
I hated this pick as much as anyone. But I suggest that people just watch a random game of Allen's and see what they think. Because he is not the guy I was expecting based on all the inaccuracy talk. Yes, he misses some easy throws. But he's mostly money on intermediate to long throws. And they're not all fastballs! That's the other thing that was drilled into my head about this guy: no touch or arc to any of his throws. Again, not true. At times he throws it too hard, yes, but not all the time. I guess I was expecting a guy who can't hit the broadside of the barn on tape but misses with great velocity. And again that's just not true.
I don't know, I got so worked up over his inaccuracy that I was expecting his tape to be an absolute disaster. I'm sure there are others here like me who have the same perception. So all I can say is: watch some random games. Might help you chill out a bit. I know it did me. I saw a guy who was running for his life and throwing seeds on the move, and who, when he had time, was pretty accurate. I know, I'm shocked too.
To me the best sign is that 2017 was his off year but to my eyes his mechanics improved from the year prior. Better timing, fewer late throws. Yes, there's always a couple throws per game that really make me facepalm, but then he'll hit on a couple throws that I see very few other QBs completing. I still have my doubts, the bust potential is there, but he was hardly a trainwreck, and with his smarts I could see him learning to be a pretty good QB.
I'll say it, damn it: I'm excited to see what Josh Allen can do.
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28 minutes ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:
Your all on the list. you know the big list. You know the one they check to see if your naughty to our new QB Allen or nice. We’re waching you
Signed the drunk ? table breakers.
Add me to your list. Allen will go down as one of worst QB picks ever.
1. Josh Allen - F
1. Tremaine Edmunds - B
3. Phillip Harrison - C
4. Taron Johnson - F
5. Siran Neal - D
5. Wyatt Teller - C+
6. Ray Ray McCloud - F
7. Austin Proehl - C
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History and data show that of the 38 QB drafted between 2010-2017 that have thrown at least 300 NFL passes, NONE of them have exceeded their college success rate in their 1st 4 years in the pros. (1ST 4 years used as that is their rookie contract length). In other words their college numbers are their ceiling.
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1 hour ago, metzelaars_lives said:
As far as the numbers, if you think that Rosen or Darnold would’ve put up even better numbers in Wyoming’s 2017 offense than they did in the flag football PAC 12 and that Allen would’ve put up even worse numbers with, say, Oklahoma State, then I suppose I can’t factually prove you wrong but we can agree to disagree. As far as his 2016 numbers, again, this was a team that went 2-10 the year before and it was his first year as a D1 QB. I would also direct you to his rushing stats from that year. Something to consider if you’re comparing them apples to apples. I can’t overstate what a big part of his game it is.
Not interested in dragging this out, as I am pretty sure we are not going to change each other minds, and that it ok. Appreciate the civil discussion. 2 questions.
Do you think Josh Allen is a better QB then Josh Rosen?
Do you think Josh Allen is better then Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes? Bills could have picked any of them.
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8 minutes ago, JinxedBill1 said:
Those of you looking to show how wrong of a pick it was are bothersome at best. He's our highest QB picked ever. Get on board, support him.
Pains me how much people knock the kid, for what? Just so you can say told ya so a few years from now? How pathetic of a life some of you have needing that kind of vindication. We all are apprehensive about the pick but we all believe and should support him.
Enough is enough. Allen is our QB now. Nothing can change that. Cry me a river.
Not yet, if ever.
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12 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said:
So you are, of course, aware that Josh Allen went 2-0 against CSU the last two years (I was at the game in Laramie in the snow this past season). Look dude. He was really good in 2016. Good enough to take a team that went 2-10 the year before to a MWC Championship game and a fairly prestigious bowl game. Good enough to be named the 2nd team all-MWC QB and the MWC preseason player of the year going into 2017. Good enough to be projected as the #1 or #2 overall pick and going into 2017. I realize the numbers don't necessarily pop off the page but if you watched him play, it was uncanny the impact he had in turning the program around. Again, being a sheep fan, you have seen this firsthand twice.
As far as the tweets go, give me a break, he was freaking 15. Not to mention, he was quoting rap songs and TV shows. It is a nothing burger if there ever was one. My God, Incognito said some of the most vile, racist and homophobic s**t you can possibly say- as an adult, mind you- and he was able to quell that in the locker room somehow. The stupid tweets will be swept under the rug soon enough, as they should be. 15 dude. He was 15.
Am aware of the CSU stuff. I am not a Ram fan, just send the checks to them.?
Allen has 2 300+ yard games in his career in the Mountain West, 1 was a 3OT game and the other against Gardner Webb. He as more sub 100 yd games then 300+ Yd games in his career. Rosen had 12 300+ yd games and 5 400+ yd games in a power 5 conference.
This is not close, read that article, compare stats to Rosen. Taking Allen was not a football decision, it just wasn’t.
As far as the tweets, it is far from a “nothing burger.” I have raised 5 kids, 3 boys and my 13 year boy was like, “why would he use those words”? I don’t care if he was quoting anything, he can’t use those words. Does that mean he shouldn’t get a second chance, no. But does that mean I want him on the Bills, no, as I hated and called out the Incognito signing. I put my $ where my mouth was also, haven’t bought any gear, haven’t flown home to watch any games and I haven’t purchased Sunday Ticket since.
Taking Allen over Rosen was not a football decision. No reasonable, objective look at the records, stats and data can say otherwise. Hey, the Bills can choose who they want for whatever reasons they want, but so can I with my choices and $.
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9 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said:
Biff from Tonawanda, Gus from Lockport, Ralph from Blasdell... I’m so sick of hearing people weigh in on Josh Allen who have no idea what they’re talking about. Again, the idea that he “wasn’t even good in college” is laughable. He was REALLY good in 2016. Particularly for a first year starter. Four of the six guys on cbssports.com had him as the #1 overall pick in their final mocks. But Skip from Lewiston thinks he sucks. Just wait til training camp- he will win everybody over when he is a man amongst boys (McCarron and Peterman). And I still think they should shelve him for a year. But just wait and see how quickly the sentiment will change amongst the fan base...
I too now live here in Denver area from WNY. I also have 2 boys attending Colorado State, so am pretty familiar with Mountain West football.
I respectfully disagree with your about Allen. I don’t think he was ever good in his college career. There is not a number out there from his career that says he will be a good NFL QB. It felt so much worse that they selected Allen with Rosen on the board. Comparing the two QBs football wise is really a joke and they played almost the same amount of games in their college careers. The article I am including in this post was really good and eye opening with its depth of analysis.
All of this was BEFORE the tweets came out which I find inexcusable. So taking Allen over Rosen was not a football decision, because the choice football wise is not close. But yeah, at least the Bills still have their “process” and their “football, faith, and family” right?
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons
Josh Allen's twitter account
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I didn’t like the tweets, but get he was young. I wanted nothing to do with him because he was a bad college QB. Hope he proves me wrong on both accounts.