Richard Noggin
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Posts posted by Richard Noggin
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10 hours ago, Mat68 said:
I would rather flip edge and safety. Go edge at 60 and safety at 163. I do not see much difference in the safety prospects as a whole to draft one at 60. Im not depending on Von to bounce back at his age. I think you need to add guy ready for snaps immediately. Edwards and Rapp is an ok pairing. Im not sure there is a safety in the class better than either. Not looking for elite traits for the position the need to invest a day 2 pick seems unnecessary.
Mostly agree with this thinking, with one adjustment: the Bills NEED a 3rd S who can play meaningful snaps in 2024. Need. How many S saw the field last season? Must have at least a solid 3rd guy and would be ideal if he was someone who could take over a starting role in 2025. (Maybe Cam Lewis is the 3rd S, but he's probably also the 2nd slot CB as well and maybe also 5th boundary CB. I'd like someone ahead of him at S please.)
8 hours ago, BeastMaster said:Just an awful move if the Bills trade up for not just a kid that isn't ready to be a major contributor next season, but also a player that could very well last up until their pick.
There's absolutely no need to go up to 17 for this kid. He's not worth the trade up.
If you are gonna do a trade up for BTJ, then you might as well go all in and trade up for one of the top three.
I would stand pat and draft Worthy at 28 and hope for a trade back up in the second for Legette or Coleman to pair with Worthy
The draft noise machine gets a bunch of guys wrong each year, but where is the evidence that BTJ could be one of those guys this year? I haven't seen/heard it yet. Open to the idea, though. (I personally think Worthy could go surprisingly early, maybe ahead of Thomas?)
6 hours ago, julian said:I’ve seen plenty of people agreeing with your idea of Baker eventually becoming a #1, lots of respected talent evaluators, yet I always see him late 2nd,3rd rnd and in some cases a day 3 pick.
Why the disconnect ?
Is that really a disconnect? If he's generally a 2/3 projection with upside, and goes in the 4th, then isn't that a steal? Maybe not a monumental steal, exactly, but good value nonetheless?
3 hours ago, BeastMaster said:He was able to utilize his athletic skills to beat defenses. He also had maybe the best QB coming out of college and Nabers opposite him to leave him one on one against the weaker DB.
He has no route tree and suspect hands. He also hasn't shown much in terms of toughness either.
NFL defenses will lock him up if he doesn't learn how to be a wideout.
I'm not opposed to drafting him at 28, but he does not provide much help this upcoming season IMO unless he takes some major steps in development.
I'll hope I'm wrong if the Bills select him because it would be criminal to waste another year of Allen's prime
Some legitimate reasons here to dig deeper on the prospect's tape and habits and general makeup. However, LSU has historically fielded multiple future starting NFL WRs several times. The last time LSU was stacked at QB+WR, two of those WRs ended up being LEGIT NFL dudes. The time before that, there were also two NFL starting WRs on the same team. Maybe that's why people aren't being more critical of BTJ. Or maybe he's got serious talent paired with explosive SEC production.
Again I'm wondering who else is putting this kind of criticism out there? Would love to read it. I lack the expertise and hubris to judge these prospects beyond identifying the guys I'd like to see on the Bills. I'm meh on Thomas tbh. Would prefer Worthy or Legette or even Coleman (which goes against my better judgment) if he falls.
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8 hours ago, teef said:
this thread is tearing us apart.
Part of why Bills social media "team" is kinda awesome. They get Gen-Z. They get Josh Allen.
At first, I actually heard my inner voice begin to wonder why Allen wasn't mentioning any offseason "football work"...right as the satire became evident. I'm not proud of my boomer-y tendencies to judge others (I'm Gen-X, but we're definitely a generation straddling the new world of too much information and the old world of too much belief).
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8 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:
Kneeland is a late first/early 2nd guy?
He seems to have the physical traits of a 1/2, but the college production of something closer to a 3/4.
Alas, the gap between is why the draft is as much "art" as it is "science."
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17 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:
Traded back to 29 then back again to 42. Jumped up to take the Yale kid at 126. All in all, 7 players selected, 6 of which are in the top 150. Still got the double dip at WR too. Would have liked a DT but McCormick was too enticing at that spot I was looking for one.
Interested if you prefer your draft or mine? Not competitively. Just which haul do you think will be more impactful short and long term?
Also, you could consider this one I just ran with where I let it fall more organically (whereas above I forced the issue and spent future assets. Possibly a better haul, depending on your perspective. Doubling up on the Washington WRs is kind of cool, not to mention the overall roster depth and competition added. Guess I prefer the draft below to the one I posted moments ago lol.
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4 picks in top 88. Light. Lean. Mean.
(Don't love the limited haul, but do love the talent added. Those 4 picks in first two days should be difference makers.)
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6 hours ago, DCOrange said:
Matt Harmon's tiered rankings so far:
- MHJ - #1 out of 61 WRs he's graded since 2021 - Top 10 Pick
- Rome Odunze - #3 - Top 10 pick
- Malik Nabers - #8 - Top 10 pick
- Brian Thomas Jr. - #12 - Clear 1st rounder
- Ricky Pearsall - #17 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
- Ladd McConkey - #18 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
- Adonai Mitchell - #20 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
- Xavier Worthy - #27 - Priority Round 2
- Keon Coleman - #32 - Good Day 2 Option
- Roman Wilson - #48 - Late 3rd/Early 4th
https://receptionperception.com/matt-harmons-nfl-draft-prospect-wr-rankings-2021-2023-stacked/
Paywall content? AND no Franklin or Legette in top-10? Fascinatingly contrarian/cynical view of two prospects with otherwise strong advanced numbers and notable (but opposite) physical profiles and historic production.
6 hours ago, DCOrange said:I think I'm high on Coleman relative to most here. Similar to @HappyDays, I'm not sure he's really a 1st round grade to me. Pre-Combine, I had a late 1st round grade on him and Franklin as my #4 and #5 WR in the class. If they had done what they had to do at the Combine, I probably would have felt pretty good about potentially taking them at #28, but either way, they were always more fringe 1st round types. To me, it's the big 3 and Brian Thomas as clear 1st rounders and then nobody after that is clear.
I readily admit Coleman has a lot of red flags; probably more red flags than any other WRs that are being considered in the first two days of the draft. The main things I like/the reasons I'm willing to look past a lot of the red flags:
- Athleticism - Altogether, Coleman is a good, borderline great athlete for the position. The 4.6 forty really hurts, but as has been said ad nauseum, while he's certainly not a burner, he does seem to play faster than the 4.6 time would suggest.
- Age/Breakout Age - Coleman is the 2nd youngest WR in the class and tied for the 5th youngest breakout age in the class. While he's obviously fairly raw, he's at the age where being relatively raw is okay, and he at least has the physical tools you want (minus the mediocre speed) and has been fairly productive despite being relatively raw.
- Motor - He's a high-effort player on the field. Tenacious run blocker to the point that Michigan State would motion him across the formation to be the lead blocker on run plays as if he was a blocking tight end. It sounds like he's a very hard worker behind the scenes/a player that keeps his teammates energized.
- Short-Term Upside - Despite being a stacked WR class, I think a lot of these highly touted WRs are guys where you're not entirely sure if they have something they can immediately hang their hat on to bring immediate value. A lot of well-rounded types that could be really good players, but not a ton of guys that feel like they can do something that's relatively unguardable the second they enter the league. Coleman has that IMO with his ability to box out DBs for back-shoulder throws, make contested catches, and elevate to get to passes that nobody else can.
- Long-Term Upside - As I've kinda laid out already, he has the physical tools, he has youth on his side, and he's been fairly productive despite being pretty raw skill-wise. A lot of areas where he can further develop his skills to take his game to another level and seemingly has the motor you look for to max out that potential.
I love Matt Harmon as a WR analyst and he makes a pretty strong case for the transition to big slot WR. He very well may be right, and if he is, Coleman doesn't make a lot of sense for Buffalo. I tend to think of Coleman similarly to how I thought about Josh Allen when he was coming out of Wyoming. I totally acknowledge all the metrics and stuff that suggest he will be a bust and should not warrant any serious consideration. I just tend to think he has the mental makeup and physical tools to be the outlier. It's admittedly a pretty high-risk play.
I think I'd probably lean towards taking a different position at #28 or trading down rather than reaching on Coleman or Franklin, but those two remain at the top of my list after the big 3 and Thomas as far as WRs go.
I admit to thinking Coleman could be a rare guy, like Josh Allen, who defeats the analytics community's "math" at the next level. For WR testing considerations, why shouldn't scouts/analysts be devaluing the 40 in favor of the gauntlet? The gauntlet drill might be emerging as an increasingly valued "game speed" indicator, and has a notable champion for its validity, in Puka Nacua. Turns out, Coleman's combine profile/testing overlaps with and actually outperforms Nacua. If Coleman ends up producing at a level equal to or above the 2024 WRs drafted before him, then we'll undoubtedly see an immediate, system-wide elevation of the combine gauntlet drill.
The major red flag that persists for Coleman is Yards per Route Run: he and AD Mitchell both have brutal YPRR, and Coleman can't fall back on Mitchell's 4.3 testing. But I'd argue that Coleman is a stronger, more determined athlete overall who is more likely to continue to improve his game.
2 hours ago, section122 said:Analytics really seem to love franklin this year. Pff has him very highly rated as well.
Franklin's bad combine has him way down on the general WR prospect sexy scale, but his college numbers are forever way UP at the top of the class.
Kind of unrelated: check out Khalil Shakir's top-5ish explosivity (depth/target x YAC) comps last season
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3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:
Do you think he falls outside of round one because of medical concerns?
Potentially, he does. Or at least into the very back end of the 1st round. Some teams won't even consider him. Jaelen Philips is a fascinating comp. Went early-ish in 1st and hasn't been healthy enough to justify the investment (despite obvious flashes when he HAS been healthy).
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Effectively traded UP in next year's first round (Tenn) by trading BACK into this year's 2nd and then UP higher into both 2nd and 3rd this year. Got a LOT of offensive prospects (at STRONG values) while still adding much needed defensive depth/contributors. This draft emphasizes what most fans want it to: OFFENSE. What would we think of adding JPJ and Worthy and Pearsall in first two days (when we only had 2 picks to begin with)? And then a bunch of early day three depth dudes on both sides of the ball.
Trading back always ends up being the most rewarding total haul, even though it involves voluntarily surrendering a pool of awesome prospects to other teams and then painfully watching those players get selected one-by-one ahead of our later pick.
Edit: 1st rd trade-back
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20 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Great post. The more I think about it, beane saw Hill terrorize us for a few years. Hill is only 195, Worthy 165. So maybe he feels worthy can put on a few pounds and be fine?
10 hours ago, Dr. Who said:I dunno, 30 lbs seems significant to me. I think Worthy is a talent. I'm worried about his size. If you get Worthy, you better find a way to get Legette, too, imo. (There are others, like Walker and Polk, that one could consider.)
Hill was a bit of a RB in college, wasn't he? Definitely short, but not small. Well-built dude.
Worthy is slighter for sure, but won't play in the NFL at that reduced, record-breaking (by design) weight of 165lbs. I'd guess he's closer to 175/180 his rookie season.
Also agree that Polk is intriguing. Heck, so is McMillan for that matter.
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10 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
I don't know much about the WR's in this drafts blocking skills. But for the other attributes I have AD Mitchell, and Thomas JR as guys who can do that. I presume they think Franklin and Tez might be able to do that as well. Or... they aren't sure and did extra work on both to see if they could.
I think Beane wants Thomas Jr, but realistically will get Franklin or AD.
Agree on Thomas Jr as high ceiling trade-up target. AD Mitchell, on the other hand, is all blue-chip traits but Busch League process. Would think Legette's upside, resilience, and physicality make him a much better fit for what Brady wants to do. But based on what's been said about needing to add explosive plays to the offense, which we can pretty much all agree with, my money is on Worthy or Franklin.
Problem is, the Bills need BOTH a big boundary specimen AND an explosive deep threat. Trading up for Odunze or Thomas could fill both holes at a premium cost, whereas what's left after them (omitting Mitchell due to his lack of football character) is an assortment of more specialized prospects. I think Worthy or Franklin make sense as downfield threats, and Legette, McConkey, and Polk make sense as more well-rounded prospects. Coleman is an outlier in that his analytics are AWFUL, but for some reason (including his best-ever combine gauntlet) he seems like a sleeper. Walker is a talented enigma who might not be a good football player at the next level. Pearsall has flashed serious ability, but his analytics don't project well outside at the next level.
That still leaves, Corley, Cowing, Baker, Wilson, Wilson, McMillan, Rice, etc.
In a potentially historic WR draft pool, the Bills NEED at least one top-3 depth chart prospect, if not two top-4 guys.
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8 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
There's no set rule on the valuation of picks the following year. I think the concept of taking the estimated area of pick and doing a full 32 pick depreciation there is a little steeper than reality and how they've been valued in recent years.
I'd say, at most, you'd say each 2nd is valued as the last two picks in the 2nd - as it's guaranteed to be at least that and almost *definitely* will be worth a lot more (especially since one of them is Minnesota's pick).
If we were to do that, the tally would be 406 from Atlanta to 399 from Buffalo. Maybe up the 160 to 144 (keeping the 160) and throwing in 163. That would be 412 from Buffalo and 406 from Atlanta (if we're working on the idea of next year's 2nd's being worth 63 and 64).
With 28, 128, 143, 163, and both 2nd's (or next year's 1st, if they preferred that) next year going to Atlanta for Pick 8.
Either way, it doesn't "HEAVILY" favor Buffalo. There's a MAJOR difference between trading to 4 and trading to 8. While i'd agree that Sim's often allow trades that are not based in reality, this one isn't unrealistic based on chart values and recent trades.
You're consistently making rational points. Very happy to read your rebuttals.
I just don't think 2 FUTURE 2nds and a current 4th and 5th/6th comes even close to enticing a team at 8 to fall back to 28. It's gonna cost a 1st next year in addition to one of those 2nds, and/or a 2nd this year in addition to those 2nds. (You've even allowed for that 1st next year already, if necessary, so we're not really disagreeing much.)
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25 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:
In spirit of the thread, I think this is where many folks get hung up. We like to discuss players as if the suit a particular position a la “he can play the X”…I’m just not so sure that labeling it as such nearly describes WHY people are making that comparison.
I think the traditional roles of an X or Z or slot are often over cast onto specific skill sets (quickness, size, etc). As you said, idc what you call them, but can they win and win now?
A guy like worthy isn’t on the table at 28 for the Bills IMO not because he “can’t play the X” but because he likely will not offer skills that they value such as blocking, winning of LOS etc
Love the first two paragraphs calling for more fluidity/flexibility in how we label WR traits, ESPECIALLY in light of how E-P passing concepts specifically seek to muddy up all that static, pedantic defining of individual roles. Each guy needs to be able to execute each route/responsibility in order for the offense to really hum.
As for the bolded, I'm of two minds. On one hand, yes the Bills had fallen in love with WR pre-snap motion where Gabe Davis (or sometimes Sherfield) very obviously motions/reduces down into box with the intent to run block...and they need a guy who can still do that effectively.
On the other hand, that was insanely predictable (think Davis' motion timing on own-goal-line backed up QB sneak against Vikings, or basically every other time he motioned to condense the formation -- minus that early TD play against Rams in 2022 NFL opener on the road at LA). There is a role for a run-blocking WR in this offense, FOR SURE. Might be part of why moving on from Diggs was palatable: he lacked that flexibility and physicality? I'd like to see what Brady's offense looks like with truly interchangeable WRs. WRs who can run after catch and put in an honest blocking effort while also being able to separate downfield. That's the E-P dream scenario.
Ignoring all that, Xavier Worthy represents a skillset and downfield threat that our current WR room lacks. McD and Beane have both mentioned a need for "explosive" passing plays. He's better all around that many casual fans realize, and in my opinion, offers blue-chip traits (long speed and explosivity) with enough else (hands and separation skills) to attract a GM like Beane. Allen can benefit greatly from a downfield threat like Brown, younger Diggs, younger Sanders, sometimes Davis, and whoever is next. We're missing that piece just as much, if not more, than we're missing a WR who can block.
Maybe Xavier Legette does both?
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19 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
For a Top 5 pick? Yes, that's not nearly enough. To 8 though? It's a fairly solid deal.
8 is worth 406. 28, 128, and 160 are worth 238. Let's say next year, Minnesota's 2nd is Pick 43 and ours is Pick 60 (which is a fair estimate) - that's 230 points. Bringing the total to 468 - 406.
We'll call the 62 point differential a depreciation based on them being picks next year. But both those 2nd's are worth a 1st next year. If they wanted our 1st instead of the 2 2's, I'd definitely do that too - knowing I could probably move them to get back into the 1st if I wanted to.
https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp
That's a fair retort. To be even MORE fair you could automatically downgrade each future year's pick by a full round (30ish picks). That would make 2025 2nd rounders actually worth ~90 pts (#72+#90). That would leave a value deficit of roughly 80 pts...
...But now I realize I've been referencing Hill's 2022 updated value chart. Yours is from 2024. Damn. The chart below tells a slightly different story. But no matter which chart you use, the trade you made HEAVILY favors the Bills.
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On 4/12/2024 at 4:14 PM, mrags said:
I don’t believe it was in a blizzard. It was extremely cold from what I remember. But was also in my teens so I don’t remember exactly.
but I think the lister had worn off after we lost in the previous 2 SBs and we just lost to the Oilers a week before.
And Kelly was hurt. Belief was low. We often forget how small/stretched the local ticket market really is for Buffalo, compared to other NFL cities, and especially with respect to affluence. Also, I'm not sure traveling NFL tourism was much of a thing yet.
Green Bay's small market solidarity is a solid counter to this line of thinking (they would never have an un-sold-out home playoff game), but there is an old school, generational loyalty and exclusivity to those seats in that community that I'm sure limits how many opposing fans sneak into Lambeau for a given game.
FATIGUE/FRUSTRATION was a real thing in this 90s example, as it has become again the last two seasons in Orchard Park. 2022 was STRESSFUL in that stadium, and the weather was hilariously bad when compared to every other effing day during each week. From Halloween weekend on the vibe was WAY off. Which was partially influenced by Vikings, Steelers, Packers, and Bengals fans being loud enough to make a difference. That never happened in the 90s run, that I recall.
I'd guess that continued price hikes have something to do with the increase in out-of-town fans. Eventually one has to orchestrate a time-share or sublet arrangement to make the financials work. I'm sure the majority of lower bowl seats behind the visiting bench at this point are renewed primarily for profit. Just wish more fans would look for ways to geographically limit WHO buys their seats on the secondary markets and/or seek buyers more privately/locally.
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To paraphrase a Louis CK bit:
OF COURSE...season ticket holders are allowed to sell their tickets. Of course. It's become over-priced corporate sports entertainment, a luxury commodity, and subject to the market.
BUT MAYBE...selling tickets for games that end up being overrun with visiting team fans (Pitts, Dal, KC...any NFC North or AFC East team tbh) is a little traitorous or at least disadvantageous to the fanatic cause.
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6 minutes ago, iccrewman112 said:
Allen has never really produced with a big YAC guy. Is that because of the Bills offensive scheme with almost no effective WR screens, very few slant routes and I can’t remember I have ever seen shallow drag routes thrown under LB coverage.i wouldn’t want to pay Aiyuk big money and then not take advantage of one of his best attributes.
True that YAC hasn't been a big part of Buffalo's offense since E-P was installed by Daboll and run by Allen. BUT, if we zoom in on Brady's offense since taking over last season, and especially down the stretch, I think we see an increase in screens and NOW routes to the boundary, and almost definitely an increase in YAC as a % of overall passing yards.
(I like posting analyses/claims based solely on my recollections of the past season, without doing any research first. Not because I'm lazy (I am lazy, of course), but because I like seeing if my contemporaneous observations (half the games observed live--which means mostly cut-off from replay and informed commentary) hold up under scrutiny. You know: growth mindset, process-based humiliation.)
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11 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Lol at the idea of Harrison lasting until 8. But happily traded a 1st, 4th, and 5th this year and both our 2nd's next year to take him.
That's a really cheap trade-up into the top-10, isn't it?
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LFG
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2 hours ago, ScorpionZero said:
PFN
You managed to grab BOTH the big-time analytics red flag WRs in first 33 picks!!! Cheers to that kind of conviction.
(I actually think Coleman could be a dude with a decent QB.)
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Traded back one pick in the 1st and still got crazy DE value. Then used late 2nd I'd acquired in trade-back with next year's 3rd to get back in at 50 to grab Legette before he's gone. Plus Jenkins at 60? Those are all difference makers, ideally. The RB, at least one of the S picks, and the IOL all should provide immediate rotational depth. I'd have preferred to grab a 2nd WR prospect, but alas.
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7 hours ago, Process said:
I am warming up to this as well. Either a huge move to get one of the top 3, or trade back. There are so many good WRs in this draft, really good prospects are going to end up falling to early-mid second round.
Love this as SOP for the draft on a continuing basis. Once you've got a franchise QB in place you need to maximize the draft return each year to ensure ongoing cap health and position group pipelines.
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Here's a trade-back draft mock-up that seeks to still acquire elite talent while leveraging 2024's 1st rounder...
Fans would have to wrestle some demons here, but overall, everyone should be pleased with the multitude of picks.
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4 minutes ago, ScorpionZero said:
Skeeda
Is a prospect like Nubin worthy of that late 3rd rd compensatory value?
Not to mention, is Troy Franklin worthy of that late 1st rd value? Most analysts say NO! I guess if Franklin works out to be a dude, then no one will care that he was taken at the end of the 1st instead of the 2nd rd...but, then again: maximizing draft value is in fact super essential to long term roster building in the NFL.
Love the above draft but with minor concern over how #28 is spent. (Kinda think OBD is somewhat-aligned with this valuation of Franklin tbh.)
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36 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:
Another trade-back draft
It's super dangerous to trade back out of the 1st with the intent to then pick a WR who might get nabbed in the 9-pick vacuum created by the move back...
It's a weird spot to be in right now. Wish they weren't so transparent with their early draft needs.
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Alphamock Draft - v1.0 for first round
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Agreed on Daniels being QB#2, and moreover, if WAS goes with Maye instead (can't see it, but what do I know), then how could New England possibly NOT draft Daniels at 3? They aren't going to draft a generational WR to play with Zappe and Brissett. Waste a year of his rookie WR deal like that? Guy who basically enters the league as a turnkey WR1? That's bad drafting tbh. Unless they're trading up behind him with urgency to also grab a QB.
Hill + Waddle + Worthy = WTF (or WWH: World War Hill)
Agree though that Worthy could get drafted much earlier than most boards have him ranked. Darrius Heyward-Bey, anyone? Ruggs? (Raiders lol.) John Ross?
Yes to Worthy for sure, although I'm doubting he's there at 28. Remember Allen with Foster? With Brown? With Diggs and Davis at times? With Sanders even for flashes? Josh Allen flourishes with deep threat WRs, clearly. Possibly where the reported Troy Franklin interest comes in. He can run all the routes but excels getting downfield, and won't be off the board at 28 for sure.
The last two years the Bills haven't really had that speed element, and we've watched Allen scuffle more and get impatient at times. There is more to to the dysfunction than a lack of WR speed, but I think we can all agree that Allen looks great with a burner on the boundary. (Allen also had prime Beasley moving the chains when he had reborn John Brown stretching coverages, so he did both things well. I really just think Allen needs targets who excel at different levels, like any QB. And when he has that, he can be legendary. The Bills have recently lacked that ability to threaten defenses at every level.)