Richard Noggin
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Posts posted by Richard Noggin
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3 minutes ago, Draconator said:
With my meteorology class I'm finishing up, Penn State recommended Pivotal Weather. I just signed up for a subscription, and I can actually read the maps they give. It's really an amazing website. All the word forecast models are available to you. I agree with Simon. About 2.2 inches will fall between 1pm and 4pm. Just enough to make Burrow cry.
This is the kind of insider information I come here for the night before a home game. Nothing like a snow globe game. So much fun.
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1 hour ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:
This defense has played excellent for the last 6 quarters. The year we finally do this, is the year our defense takes the big step. This team has made us look very bad in the past. If we can stop Cincinnati, I think the sky is the limit. Im very excited to see how our defense holds up this week.
Love to see the hope here. Of course, I don't actually share it this week, against an opponent who just proves to be a bad matchup. Cinci runs it better lately than they get credit for, and we know of course how they throw it with Burrow back in the fold. Two-dimensional offenses like theirs have the ability to exploit McD's defense (and NFL defenses in general). Without a talented pass rush, it's really difficult to stop such teams.
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18 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:
Yes they are 8 and 4 but with how inconsistent I see them going 2-3 to finish the season. With losses to the Bengals, Pata and Eagles. At that point for the Bills to make it depends on how other games go. The 2 teams that matter the most for the Bills to make it is the Chargers and the Texans.
I don't see a McD team with a healthy Josh Allen and James Cook going 2-3 to close out the season, but as you've noted, their inconsistency does not slam the door on that possibility. And the matchups against Cinci, New England, and Philly are all potentially dicey.
We've been worse off at this point in previous years ('21 and '23) and still closed out the regular seasons strong (a McD team trait), one time fielding (in '21) the best consecutive passing offense performances in playoff history, I think? That 2021 team was offensive shite at this point in the season, and then lost again but at least woke up in the 2nd half of that 6th and final loss to Tampa. So there is precedent for the Bills and Allen to lock in from here out.
In 2025, however, unrelenting, impactful injuries, and critical coaching and execution errors could be mitigating factors that finally disrupt the Bills' history of late season excellence.
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5 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:
I said this last week and I will say it again. If you are Josh Allen and you play through every injury you have and always find a way well when he walks into this locker room he must just roll his eyes when he hears the news about kincaid, palmer and samuel. He will never admit it publicly but as comepetitive as he is and as much of a trash talker as he is....can you imagine what he thinks about these guys who are always hurt with some new aliment that keeps them out of practice all week and then somehow keep missing all these games.
Whatever it is in their scouting that keeps landing them these guys with constant injuries they need to figure out and correct immediately when the season is over.
50% agree. Yes, Allen is a horse who has always played through basically everything. However, lower body injuries especially are MUCH more impactful for skill players (compared to QBs) who need maximum movement ability to do their jobs well enough to actually help the team. A pulled hammy hurts a receiving target in ways that don't critically impact a tough QB's ability to be effective.
2 hours ago, Gilberto said:How did he get caught?
Taste was off?
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10 hours ago, MDH said:
This is what my (likely bad) predictions came up with. I’d take this in a heartbeat. The AFC WCs could all conceivably win and the Bills could potentially host both the division round and AFFCG
There are definitely chances this year of road teams logging wins.
10 hours ago, US Egg said:Yeah, the ole “I got to be honest” qualifier to validate a point. So sometimes they’re not?
Honestly?
8 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:I am by no means committed to any of this but my first and quick clicking without thinking has me at
1. Denver 14-3
2. New England 13-4
3. Indianapolis 11-6
4. Pittsburgh 9-8
5. Buffalo 13-4
6. Kansas City 10-7
7. Houston 10-7
Jacksonville misses at 10-7
NFC
1. LA Rams 13-4
2. Green Bay 12-4-1
3. Philadelphia 12-5
4. Tampa Bay 11-6
5. Seattle 13-4
6. San Francisco 12-5
7. Detroit 11-6
Chicago misses at 11-6
I think the bolded is what I meant by "honest" for this exercise: just pick em on feel without regard for end result (bracket).
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Using dumb ESPN's playoff simulator, I ran through the last five weeks of the season without thinking too much, just picking each game as objectively as I could. Here was the result (only took me a couple minutes):
I hate it a lot, tbh. So many bad matchups for the Bills.
In my simulation, for what it's worth, the Bills lose the next two and then win the last three. I really hope that isn't what actually transpires, but going 3-2 the rest of the way IS reasonable. Could also see arguments for going 4-1, which would have interesting ramifications. for the rest of the AFC.
What bracket do YOU come up with after picking the last five weeks of the season? (I tried not to think about any future implications when picking. And I tried to apply an ugly level of objectivity.)
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So no one (especially the OP) has worked out even one simulation of how the AFC bracket would progress for Buffalo's "playoff run" beginning with a road win against the Ravens? What are the other 2 matchups during the WC round? Any other road warrior upsets? (Which would mean Buffalo does NOT travel to the top seed for Divisional round.) Could all three WC teams win on the road, given the leaguewide parity? (Which would mean Buffalo hosts #6 AND THEN either travels to #1 or hosts #7 for the AFCCG.) How does the AFC seeding shake out after week 18?
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4 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Totally understand the way contact, and moreover cheap shots, bring out the apex competitor in Allen (and wish Brady embraced it the way Daboll seemed to, calling QB runs often enough to keep his QB on the hunt).
HOWEVER, I have serious concerns about any team that doesn't come out and play every game, start to finish, with a focused urgency and/or rage. I know they're human beings, and mostly very rich and usually very sore/injured human beings at that, but WTF?! Players only have 17 (regular season, if they're lucky) opportunities each year to perform and prove their value to the team/league/posterity.
4 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:Sal pointed out on the radio broadcast that Buffalo was kind of sleep walking through the game, and then came the late hit on Josh that wasn't called. After that, Buffalo had a nasty edge. To quote Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto:
"I fear that all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve".
Been a lot of sleepy first halves (especially on offense) this season innit
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13 minutes ago, ganesh said:
We had an equally good player who is continuing to elevate the level of play in New England. We simply missed the mark on keeping him part of this offense. That is on Brady.
It would be silly to ignore the growing rift between Diggs and the coaching staff dating as far back as Dorsey, at least. And then of course the rift grew to freeze out Josh Allen as well. (Might even have been reciprocated, privately, at that point.)
But yes, the Brady-led offense has had major issues consistently getting the ball to WRs who run routes past the line of scrimmage. Diggs, to his discredit, also failed to come through in the playoffs the last couple seasons he was in Buffalo, on an individual level. Moving on simply had to happen, unfortunately.
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2 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
if this is true, don’t the bills have to report it on he injury report?Only if it limits him in practice, I think?
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Anyone else impressed with Bills players mostly keeping cool in the 1st half as Steelers were being dirty C U Next Tuesdays and the refs were pretending to be blind? Spencer Brown would have maybe been ejected lol. Epenesa got his dumb flag, but didn't Metcalf get his own on the next play or two? Bills players stayed pretty focused. Good on them.
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2 hours ago, WideNine said:
A re-think at DT and LB may help too when they are looking for roster additions via the draft and FA. Getting some bigger bodies up front and LBs that have the attitude needed to play the run may also help keep our smaller DBs and safeties from taking on so many guys coming at them with a full head of steam and getting injured. There is a lesson to be taken away from being near the bottom of rush defence and having so many of your defenders getting injured.
SUPER curious if this hypothesis actually has merit. Is bad rushing defense correlated with increased games missed by defenders? Difficult to parse directly, seeing as decimated defensive units would likely have difficulty stopping the run (and/or the pass). Which came first kind of conundrum. But I'd still like to look into what the numbers say about your claim here...
2 hours ago, UKBillFan said:Why not, if it works? It feels like coordinators often overthink play calls even if they're working. They just assume the opponents will work it out so move on. Sometimes sticking with something until proven the question's been answered is the way to go.
Why not stick with it repeatedly, for me, is illustrated each time Brady intentionally sticks with it enough times in a row that the Bills get stuffed for a no gain or negative result. Brady CHOOSES to inevitably squander a valuable 1st or 2nd down rather than leveraging the increased likelihood that the defense will be over-playing the run and hitting them with some kind of play-action pass or other such aggressive change of pace play call. You have Josh freaking Allen. Convert that running success into passing success, or at least try. Keep the mfers guessing.
1 hour ago, finn said:Not so solid when he did an ole-tackle on Washington in the fourth quarter. I don't blame him in a way; Washington outweighs him by 75 pounds and he was running full speed. Still, you can't pass up tackles.
Washington outweighs Tre White by 119 pounds, actually. Washington's listed weight is laughable; he's even admitted recently what his actual weight is (311, right?).
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1 hour ago, transient said:
Can we PLEASE just trade for someone we already KNOW can play WR? Pegula isn’t moving on from Beane and McDermott (despite the fact that he should) and Beane can’t accurately evaluate FA or college WR talent, so we need someone who’s already been vetted.
The veteran #1 WR trade route is extremely expensive in both draft assets and cap space allotment, and somewhat rare/difficult to pull off. And they usually come with baggage. Think AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill...who else?
Remember that Allen was still on a rookie deal when Beane traded for Diggs, making it easier to fit him in immediately and long term.
Of course, Diggs then had a career year playing with Allen, and the Bills went to the AFCCG for the first time in like 25 years. So the expense was darn near justified in year one alone. AJ Brown was a VERY similar situation for the Eagles, except they got to the SB (and then won it two years later).
What are other examples of WR1s getting traded?
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23 hours ago, That's No Moon said:
And those teams underachieved too and Reids refusal to run the ball and God awful clock management were frequently the problem in big games. He needed to be fired by the end and he fixed some of his issues when he came back. It also helped that Mahomes is better than McNabb. Coincidentally his Eagle teams also grossly underinvested at WR for most of his tenure, then went and got TO and actually made the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for them, TO got hurt and Donovan was barfing on the field.
And though this isn't directed at you, I will also point out the Eagles have won 2 Super Bowls since firing Reid, with two different coaches. The constants have been Howie Roseman and Jeffrey Lurie. Has Beane been able to construct the teams that Roseman has? The Eagles are playing like crap right now and their roster is still better than the Bills. Sirianni was under fire early last year and obviously got it together but they are back off the rails again and people are pissed. He could 100 percent be fired and Roseman wouldnt think twice about it because he's already fired a SB winning coach and replaced him with another SB winner. The change will be made if it needs to be. Meanwhile, in Buffalo, McBeane will go on forever whether they ever win anything important or not.
Pegula lacks the personal savvy AND the organizational structure/objectivity to have identified the obvious need to fire McD after 13 seconds or in each of the last two off-seasons when Ben Johnson was ostensibly available. To not hire someone with serious pedigree to oversee football operations in an executive capacity above McD and Beane is the height of Busch League incompetence. Instead, Pegula is the only person evaluating McBeane, which is insane if you've ever listened to anything Pegula has ever said about football. He's an impressionable imbecile about sports. He NEEDS C-Suite layers above his coaches and front office personnel, but lacks the wisdom or humility to admit it. He accepts mediocrity.
17 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:You misunderstood my point. Hes been a great owner for the Bills. Look at all the success the team has had including a new stadium which likely keeps the team here even longer.
Meanwhile you seem to hate the guy because despite his success with the football team, youre big mad because they haven't won the Superbowl and the hockey team stinks. You seem like you'd be happier if they were both sold and moved. That was my point.
Pegula has given the Bills everything they need to be great. Thats the extent of what owners can do to win championships. Not winning a Super Bowl is fully on McDermott, Beane and the players on the field, including Josh Allen.
Again, if you think Pegula is a bad owner, it can only be about the Sabres because hes been great for the Bills.
A lot of guys in Buffalo mad at Terry for not doing more with a hockey team when hockey simply doesnt make him money. Not sure why its so hard to have an opinion of the guy strictly on the football team?
People want to come on here and call him an idiot. Who is the bigger idiot the billionaire businessman who wont sink more money into a failing league that has less fans than AEW Wrestling...or the old white guys in the Northeast who still care about the league?
Pegula's refusal to bring in football and hockey execs to oversee each operation and provide needed expertise independent of (and critical of) coaching and management is absolutely idiotic. Maybe Kim could have grown into that role (her interpersonal aptitude and general savvy is very underrated to this day), but failing to bring in pedigreed people at the top is just such a huge ongoing nightmare.
16 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:Shocking that a businessman wants to make money. I apologize that Sabre fans live in this fantasy world where hockey is still a "big 4" sport in the United States. How can you still think that when its routinely outdrawn and outrated by Nascar, and Wrestling?
The NHL is a crap league on the popularity level of the WNBA and College Basketball. Its a sport relegated to rich white kids and Europeans. If I were Terry I wouldn't sink my time or money into it either. Its not worth his time.
Owners dont win championships and businessmen arent looking to lose money.
Owners definitely have HUGE impacts on organizational success across the major sports leagues. Teams can have fleeting success without great ownership, but sustained success starts at the top. The Bills drought was deeply and obviously tied to ownership issues and the downstream impacts of those issues, and you can see the Sabres suffering now from that same condition.
12 hours ago, GoBills808 said:I would guess that quite a few of them are actually checked into
That would still be the result of the pre-snap solutions Allen is provided by his coaches. I think defenses know how to sometimes force Allen to check into disadvantageous or predictable audibles. It's not like he has the time at the line or the license to pick from ANY play in their arsenal. He isn't running Peyton Manning's Marchibroda offense, unfortunately.
11 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:God I hope not.
I think it's mostly true. But not completely Allen's fault. He's put in bad positions.
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On 11/29/2025 at 12:20 AM, GoBills808 said:
😂😂Trust me if I was putting words in your mouth I'd make sure they made sense
I'm saying without Mahomes all the Hunts would have hired was a good HC w a history of choking in big games
Sounds like McD tbh
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21 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:
You're right but a variety of people who know more about football (Cosell, Romo, Orlovsky, etc.) than I do have mentioned that our passing concepts are rather simple and/or unimaginative.
Andre Reed said their passing concepts back in the 90s were "vanilla" because they had the talent to make simple concepts work. Brady doesn't have the luxury of talented wideouts. So he should be working overtime to figure out how to scheme guys open.
And doesn't it strike you as odd that pretty much every receiver sees their production go down when they start playing for Brady (Diggs, Palmer, Samuel, Moore, etc.)?
When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. But not Brady, he made durian juice.
Also, the repetitive/pared-down playbook of the Kelly Bills offense was much more vertical and aggressive in nature, so it put more strain on defenders. Like, even if Brady's mesh routes actually work and Allen has the time to wait for them, they're still semi-horizontal routes that don't exactly put safeties in conflict. Allen's arm should be firing lasers downfield on seam and boundary 9s and posts and flags and skinnies and the like...not just crossers and swings and screens and contested fades. Threaten defenses through the air while also slashing them on the ground. Add in mucho motion and play action and let's effing go.
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24 minutes ago, Governor said:
This is what watching Terrel Bernard all season does to a person.
Bernard had been playing through injuries (plural) this season prior to his obvious arm injury last game...and while that builds upon his growing history of unavailability, it also explains some of his lack of production when on the field. He's still making a bunch of solid reads, but seems to be having trouble turning most of those into impact plays. He obviously can't hold up physically to the rigors of an NFL season at MLB.
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2 hours ago, Roundybout said:
Props to Brown for playing through a mountain of pain. Respect that.
He was actually hurting the team by not tapping out sooner. At least one or two drives where he was obviously unable to use his right arm, as a RIGHT TACKLE, and Van Demark was available to step in, right? Pretty sure Dawkins was on the field.
Not to mention how coaches didn't get him out of there after the first drive when he was hurt (unless RVD was being used and I'm misremembering?). How is that allowed to go on for so long?
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16 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:
It depends. How does one do against the other? That was the point of my post. If the line can't open holes and Josh is under a lot of pressure against a really good front then that probably means our line isn't of the same caliber. This is the sort of game that if you actually have a top notch line you need them to show it.
They didn't run well last week but they pass blocked pretty well after the first two series. Against Miami they didn't have great success running and Allen was sacked 3 times and hit 7 more times. Against Atlanta Cook ran for 4, 2, 2, 0, 2, 6, 14, 2, 8, 7, 3, 12, 7, 9, 1, 6, 0, 4 and Allen was sacked 4 times and hit 6 more times. Lots of failed runs with a couple long ones to make the average look better but they struggled to move the ball that night. They also struggled to move the ball against New England with a lot of short runs and a bunch of hits on Allen.
The way people talk about the line sometimes you'd think they were the mid 90's Cowboys. Sure, they've dominated some teams and ran over Carolina, etc. but they've not been very good several other times this season. Maybe I'm a strict grader but for me to consider a line to be that top notch level they are more consistent than that. If they can't open holes or block for Allen this week I don't really want hear "Gee whiz, Beav. Houston has a really strong defense." it just give more evidence to them being overrated.
To the bolded: you do realize that in 17 rushes (according to PFR it's 17 for 87...you have an extra 2 yard run listed), Cook gained 4 or more yards 10 times and more than 5 yards 8 times? And of the 7 unsuccessful runs, 4 went for 2 or 3 yards? So it wasn't really that bad AT ALL. 5.1 Y/A. It was more about not running Cook often enough in that game, if I'm recalling the postgame critiques accurately. Atlanta's pass rush/pressure packages is what was working most against the Bills, who should have run more often and/or simply better diagnosed and attacked some of the blitzes (tougher to do on the road and in a dome).
The Patriots did effectively shut down Cook for 3.3 Y/A. No doubt. When that happens and the Bills fail to counter, I think play-calling and Allen's inconsistencies in diagnosing pre-snap looks (shared blame here with his coaches and what they're expecting and preparing for) are more to blame than the quality of the Bills OL personnel. Even above average blockers can look bad when repeatedly put in bad positions by predictable play calls, a lack of self-scouting, poor game planning, etc. And maybe Vrabel's boys up front just bullied our guys more than I'd like to admit...
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32 minutes ago, Lionel Hutz said:
Benching what was basically your first round pick for 2 straight games in his second season when he is healthy is a bad look for this organization. Either he is being benched as punishment for behavior or because they don’t think he’s good enough.
I hear all the time when he is criticized for poor coaching that McD is a great leader of men. Well how come he can’t handle Coleman? This coming after how Elam was handled by McD. McD doesn’t want to win at any cost, he wants to win on his terms.
Beane also deserves blame for picking these guys and not admitting he made mistakes.
Benching a 2nd round pick for repeatedly exhibiting bad football character does NOT reflect poorly on anyone but Keon Coleman. Sure, the very high day two pick appears to have been spent on an immature player who isn't taking his job seriously enough. But the draft is in the past. This is the present, and the kid needs a wakeup call and/or to simply step aside for guys who ARE putting in the work and seeing the results. Simple as that. I commend McD for holding Coleman accountable.
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11 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:
I wouldn't be surprised if we turn the ball over a time or two. Texans are 6th in takeaways. Bucs are 5th in takeaways btw.Might be a matchup where it's wiser for Allen to take the early/easy throws if they're available, especially in the first couple drives. He's been passing those up at times and then getting a little sped up and out of sync. Kinda in-between bailing out and holding out for that arrogant throw. He was successful in the first 4 games with stepping up in the pocket early and often (usually to the left). Then it seems like he made more of an effort to stick in there, but in so doing lost his interior escape gap as the pockets collapsed. Feet got a little happy.
Dude like Allen needs to impose. He needs to be decisive and vertical in his pocket movement whenever possible, placing defenders into conflict and giving his targets more opportunities to get open. I'll take 3 step laser beams on slants and seams and curls and swings if those are there for the taking, of course. While the rules protect QBs within the tackle box, I think Allen can protect himself better when he's proactive.
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8 hours ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:
OT here.
There was not many Bucs fans at the game. Correct?
I ask because there was alot of red in the stands. You rarely see opposing fans at Bills home games. Maybe it was fans wearing the Bills red jerseys.
There were SOME in attendance, no doubt. But I wouldn't say "many." No more than most home games, and less than others.
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On 11/17/2025 at 1:39 PM, Allen2Moulds said:
On the coaching thing, I couldn't help but think to myself, who is calling this defense? I know they showed McD with a playsheet, but Bobby is still in the booth, and I'm thinking that at the moment, both are involved. I would love to see Bobby on the sideline and erase all doubt. To me, the defensive calls felt a lot more like the 1st half against Atlanta. Specifically remember a 3rd and 12, where we chose to sit back and play soft coverage, and allow the conversion. It was a very vanilla look, no disguise, no pressure. I thought to myself, was that McD? McD is typically more aggressive in those situations.
I don't think we'll ever truly know. They'll likely continue to say that it's a collaborate effort between the 2.
I would love to see a lot more of Shaq and Dorian. If Bernard could get fully Healthy, Ideally, I would like to see Shaq and Bernard, assuming Shaq is able to play Milano's WLB role.
Question about first sentence quoted: can you think to anyone else?
Comment about second paragraph quoted: 100% agree. Dorian had a few disruptive snaps at the end of the game, rushing on the interior, mostly in conjunction with Solomon (who is filling the Hoecht role of attacking laterally and with very violent hands, to occupy someone else's rusher and to press the pocket and flash in the QB's field of vision).
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2 hours ago, DJB said:
It’s both but man to have a guy like Johnson . He gets it
I was wearing out friends and family with my desire to replace McDermott with Johnson for the last two offseasons, to be honest. Crushes me that we haven't paired a HOF QB unicorn with a young, aggressive, PROgressive offensive mind like Ben Johnson. Someone from the McVay/Shanahan/Kubiak trees and/or college ranks, which is Johnson's exact pedigree. Someone to redirect organization focus onto forward thinking approaches to everything, with a specific emphasis on QB success.
**Especially love Johnson's response here when thinking of Allen's particular passing skillset: he is not a guy who naturally excels at the jump ball or back shoulder throws. He's a guy who really likes to see the separation. (I'm sure he and Diggs had a bunch of pitches and catches that disprove all this, but then again, that would also speak to most fans' frustrations over not stacking the WR room with dynamic playmakers who could be scary working with Allen.) So many midround WRs in the last few years (Franklin, Horton, Tez Johnson, Metcalf LOL etc...man that Justin Shorter pick wtf) who seemed like no brainers could have helped, but of course replacing Coleman with almost any other pick (Worthy, Pearsall, McConkey or a diff position all together) would also be impactful. Shakir was a solid pick. Anywho...
Beane has always been a big WR guy by nature. Allen's first WR room was bonkers, in retrospect.
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Potential weather for the Bengals game
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Was also there. Supremely disconcerting to see the road team come in better prepared for on-field conditions, among other things. That game was an inevitable reckoning...the obvious conclusion to such an oddly frustrating, exhausting season for the team collectively and individually, almost as if the specter of 13 seconds had caused a hangover typically felt by SB losers.
And they still won 13 games. But Allen had 14 interceptions and 13 fumbles (of which HE recovered 5...not sure how many were in fact turnovers). Something changed right before halftime of that GB Halloween game. Most likely a concussion for Allen, on top of whatever else was going on for him off the field. The vibe was way off that season. Cinci was just the better team.