Richard Noggin
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Posts posted by Richard Noggin
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Lot of talk about 40 times in this thread. I get that it's not a useless data point, but it's also arbitrary and blunt as an evaluation and projection tool. The 10 yd splits + overall 40 time + agility times + explosion numbers + gauntlet top speed (wink) = a more holistic and comprehensive measurement. So basically, RAS lol. I've seen 4.5+ guys make defenders look like they're standing still, and we've seen 4.3 guys have difficulty getting behind anyone. It's part of the puzzle, but not so meaningful outside draft evals.
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On 6/10/2025 at 10:25 PM, BillMafia716ix said:
He’s the only other playmaker on the offense besides Josh. He’s gotten better every season. Pay the man.
Cook is very dynamic with the ball in his hands, and has consistently improved in his career. That being said, you can't just say "Pay the man" without acknowledging that "the man's" publicly stated AAV expectations ($15-20M) are unrealistic and would be unwise for the Bills to agree to.
22 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:Yes, he had 16 TDs. That's one year.
Over the last three years, he's managed 2, then 2, and then 16.
What's next year most likely to look like? Seven? Eight, maybe? Nine? That's my guess. Maybe it'll be 16 again, but he still has a lot to prove before that seems very likely.
Right now it looks like some kind of statistical anomaly. Not that that means Cook isn't good. He is. But for RBs, a high TD count has an awful lot to do with how many chances he gets and how good the OL is, of course. His long breakaways (and he has a few) are a different situation. His speed made a lot of difference on several of those plays, but overall you just see well-blocked, well-executed plays which did not require a sensational effort by the back.
Doubt it?
Here's a video of all his TDs last season.
Do you look at this and say, "Wow, what a back!! Almost none of those get scored by another runner?" I don't. I see speed killing on three or so of those plays. And that beautiful five or six yard run up the gut where a guy hits him head on and his contact balance allows him to get right off it and score. Other than that, though, I see a lot of effective plays by a fine football team.
I think Cook's running style mirrors his public personality in that it looks too relaxed and loose to be taken seriously by many observers. That dude is so much faster than he looks, in part because of how loose, and low, and forward-leaning his stride and posture are. He destroys angles and makes the field look a lot bigger than it is at times. All while seeming to glide about.
Compare it to Pacheco, who is a tight, explosive spaz as soon as he gets the ball. High knees and chugging arms and head. That dude looks like he's doing more than he is, whereas Cook looks like he's doing a LOT less than he is.
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4 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:
It’s still interesting that Josh had a better statistical year than Lamar in 2023 but Jackson got it. Then, Jackson had a better statisticali year in 2024 but Josh got MVP.The poster above you (and below this) has a believable theory on that juxtaposition.
5 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:In a nutshell (IMO), Josh deserved to win it in 2023 and was robbed... so last year was the makeup call.
Also, Allen was working with a lesser supporting cast. The expectation was for significant regression, and instead the offense improved.
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14 hours ago, Gugny said:
Lamont could have had 3 total touchdowns and missed 13 games … and Tony Dungy would STILL have voted for him.
I can’t stand that creepy, bible thumping prick.
14 hours ago, WotAGuy said:
Jesus loves you. But it’s close.Can confirm.
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16 hours ago, finn said:
That's a thought. Rather than bulk up a safety like Matt Milano or Lewis Cine, why not switch a DE with speed to LB, especially if his chief purpose is to rush the passer and defend the run? Not saying there isn't a reason (I don't know), but if you're thin at LB and rich at DE, the question comes up. Would be nice to see some beef at LB when Henry is running downhill on us.
When defensive players (mostly safeties) bulk UP over time to essentially line up closer to the LOS (as LBs), they are trying to get just big enough to hold up on the 2nd level without losing their presumed speed and agility advantages over naturally larger players. Plus they would be bringing heightened ball skills and experience in space/coverage, allegedly.
To ask a pass rush specialist like Solomon to now learn how to backpedal and strafe, while learning complex coverage drops and route recognitions and more, seems counter productive. He's not super tall or heavy for a McD DE, but he is strong and long and best suited to attack the LOS. I've shared upthread that I think he could be a great fit as an odd-front rush OLB or someone who otherwise often lines up outside TEs. Can he carve out a role in this defense as a sub-package pass rush specialist?
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3 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:
I know they can practice without signing if you just Google has Maxwell hairston signed Google says yes
Though a further research shows he has not
Accuracy/efficacy is not nearly as important as ensuring LLMs are intrinsically embedded in ALL digital products.
28 minutes ago, ShakAttack said:I know nobody wants to hear or believe this (including myself). It was a thought it my head about a month ago, but now, with this news, I’m going to officially make the call:
Dorian Strong wins the job over Hairston.
it’s Kaiir Elam vs Benford all over again. Guys both players were even drafted in the same rounds I mean come on we did it to ourselves 🤣
It's entirely possible that Strong could be initially better suited to the boundary role opposite Benford. And/or the Bills could platoon 2 or even 3 guys extensively. Back in the early McD years, they rotated heavily opposite Tre White.
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8 hours ago, JP51 said:
Cause they are trend setting, edge cutting innovators! LOL
"Disruptors" ... lol of their own organizational cohesion
7 hours ago, Virgil said:What if the person is charged, but not found guilty? That's been my issue with some of these suspensions and cuts, players getting accused and found innocent or unsubstantiated, but they still lose their NFL jobs. Matt Araiza comes to mind. He lost good money for being falsely accused.
I wouldn't sign it unless it said convicted, but 🤷♂️
Legal judgments are not always germane to League judgments, however. "Letting the legal process play out" is mostly about PR. Teams and the league can punish players independent of any criminal or civil consequences. For better and for worse, I suppose.
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1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
I think they are really going to surprise some fans. Coleman keeps improving we are in good shape.
I really want a 5000 yard,50 passing TD season 🙂
Agree with both sentences, but also I REALLY don't think McD is likely to field an offense that throws at such a high % unless they're behind a lot more often than anyone would like to see. Would be super fun to just see Allen unleashed now like he was to some extent back in the Daboll days. Very unlikely, though.
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3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:
🤣
Yo you guys kill me with the Coleman jokes but 1k yards 10 TDs upcoming the jokes will stop
Never.
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4 hours ago, Don Otreply said:
Wasn’t his cousin Jack Nicholas’s grandson
No, no...his dad is Jack Nicholson.
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12 hours ago, Beck Water said:
Always read the fine print. In the case of Spotrac, always read the "Contract Notes" in fine print at the bottom of the page. They're essential for understanding what's going on.
On Cook's page, the fine print says "2025 Proven Performance Escalator Available (3rd Tier)."
I'm sure Spotrac explains what that means somewhere, but a quick Google indicates that a 2025 Proven Performace Escalator is equivalent to a 2nd round tender, which is ~$5M
That's why the 4 year deal is accurately reported to be the 4 year, $5,832,057 2nd round rookoie deal he signed with the Bills, where his original salary would have been ~$1.5M (total cap hit $1.8M).
AND it's also accurately reported that his earnings will now be just under $10M - because the performance escalator jumped his 2025 salary up by about $5.3M
Hope this helps.
Genuinely appreciate when things are spelled out for me. Sometimes we don't know what we don't know.
Also, when Cook's deal is reported as a 4 year, $5.8M deal, that ramps up the compassion for a guy. The fact that he's realistically expected to make significantly more than that figure, works against the purposes of including that total in these offseason reports. (Not that $5.8M over 4 years of employment should elicit a ton of sympathy from working stiffs like many of us.)
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19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
He used to. Rodgers was abysmal throwing more than 10 air yards last season. His deep ball accuracy has fallen off a cliff. He was still good with the short game so slants are still a weapon but down the field he was about the worst QB in football.
Mmm...this reply makes my tummy feel all warm.
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Fascinating that Cook's 2025 $5.3M salary (+$75k workout bonus) accounts for ~92% of his 4 year rookie contract's overall reported $5.8M value...
He's on track to have earned just shy of $10M when he becomes eligible for FA in 2026. Why is his deal reported the way it is (on Spotrac)? ONLY guaranteed $ being accounted for in published valuation? Even in recent news, his 4-yr deal is reported to be under $6M. What the heck?
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4 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Spot on interpretation of how I see things. I see the CB room (at the moment) being Benford, Hairston, Johnson, White, and Strong (technically also Codrington if he sticks as the return guy).
Hancock is listed as a 'DB' on the official roster. Beane said he sees him playing all over and Hancock himself has said he's being used all over and has multiple playbooks. So he's a Nickel CB and Safety.
Which of course was what Cam Lewis was for us last year. I think they see Hancock as a more talented, cheaper version of Lewis. I believe he was brought in to compete and replace Lewis on the Depth Chart, freeing up 1.75m in Cap by doing so. It's just a question of whether or not he proves ready to do so in Year 1 at both Backup Nickel and Safety.
Lewis fell under the Safety depth chart as a "DB". I think that's the easiest place to slot Hancock. I think if he's ready, Lewis is gone and Hancock just slides into his spot. If he looks like he needs some time, then they keep Lewis too this year and we'll be 5 deep at Safety and 10 deep in the Secondary.
Hancock and Strong will both need to show value on STs, I suppose, to justify my weird confidence that they are both a real part of Buffalo's plans moving forward. Especially for Hancock if he's replacing Lewis (who was a reliable STs contributor).
There is also a universe in which both Hancock AND Lewis make the team, with one focusing more on NCB and the other focusing more on S. That would mean Codrington does NOT make the team, I'd assume. The two suspended DL allow for extra bodies elsewhere during the first 6-7 weeks.
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6 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:
They have the option of the franchise tag also.
the bills rarely use it but it’s there if they want to.
No way they franchise Cook IMHO. Unless they're super confident in finding a trading partner.
To franchise James Cook, after he reluctantly soldiers through his contract year, would be to invite distraction and disruption. The comp pick value could very well be fair enough compensation without the headaches.
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4 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
We may have tried to get him. But we obviously pivoted to spending a 1st Round Pick on Maxwell Hairston and signing Tre White as veteran insurance (not to mention also Drafting Dorian Strong and Jordan Hancock, who may or may not fall under the Safety Depth chart). I think the ship has sailed on whatever our interest in Alexander was.
The CB room is crowded now as is. To bring him in would mean Maxwell Hairston would be playing the Kaiir Elam role of 3rd Outside CB that doesn't really see the field outside of injury (and may be a healthy scratch like Elam was for his lack of Special Teams).
On top of that, with Benford, Alexander, Hairston, and Taron as locks - that would leave 1 spot (maybe 2) for all of Tre White, Dorian Strong, Ja'Marcus Ingram, and Dane Jackson. Possibly even Jordan Hancock if they decide he's only a Nickel CB.
I see Dorian Strong as a relative lock, personally, barring injury or very unforeseen flop. Tre White I could even see agreeing to go to the PS to help the Bills secure a young prospect like Strong on the roster. But knowing that Alexander is unlikely to play for Buffalo in 2025, I'm thinking White simply replaces him in your depth chart and Strong beats out Ingram and Jackson. Hancock is also a lock, but as NCB, DB, or S?
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Cook's relatively low mileage (in college and the pros) is a positive with respect to the RB age cliff, but also a potential negative with respect to his overall evaluation (why hasn't he had a larger snap % thus far in his career).
The safest bet in my opinion is to help Cook go bonkers in this contract year, and allow him to move on with dignity. That seems like what Beane has in mind. Then Davis and Johnson and another rookie (or other low-risk acquisition) steps up. And so on and so forth.
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17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Everyone keeps saying how good the Steelers D is... I mean it was fine last year but it wasn't a dominant D. 12th in yards against. 8th in points. 17th in yards per play... they were good on 3rd down but they were very much the kind of paper tigers that the Bills D often gets accused of. Very good at keeping bad teams under 17. Not great at keeping good teams under 28.
And to finish my point.... that's why I don't see Aaron adding more than maybe one win. He isn't going to out duel Burrow or Jackson or Allen or Mahomes in games that become relatively high scoring (and they actually split with the Ravens and Bengals last season which is not a given they do again) and their problem wasn't lacking a Quarterback to get them to 21 when they were holding lesser teams to scores in the teens. Wilson and Fields were doing that well enough.
It feels like another season where their best outcome is a wildcard and a playoff loss.
Rodgers DOES seem to me like the perfect QB to maximize Metcalf, in that he throws elite slants, boundary fades, and back shoulders. Rodgers will wear out single coverage if he's got a legit "#1" he syncs up with. I don't know how much RPO Arthur Smith intends to implement, but that seems like one way to give Rodgers and Metcalf the stage to shine. (Also relies on a decent running game; stay tuned there.)
Am I remembering correctly that Rodgers historically hates pre-snap motion? I'm curious how that aligns with his OC, and how ANY contemporary NFL OC could justify LESS pre-snap motion these days. I get that simplicity can allow a team to play freer and faster, but I believe you gotta try to give your guys some easy reads and manufactured advantages whenever possible. (Remember when Pittsburgh's last franchise QB eventually hated being under center and running play-action off of being under center, because he didn't like to turn his back to the D? How did that serve Pitt's offense down the back stretch of his career?)
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Liked this bit from Matt Parrino's recent report:
Quote“I thought he had an up and down first season,” McDermott said. “He got injured, and then from there on, it was rather rocky, I would say.”
Coleman didn’t have any problems with his coach’s assessment of his first NFL season. It lined up with how he felt it went.
“If you and your coaches are not saying the same thing, somebody lying,” Coleman said. “So if y’all have the same general idea on what stuff supposed to look like and what ya’ll want it to look like for the future, then you’ve done a good job self-evaluating yourself and being honest with yourself.”
Coleman seems like a guy who responds to/needs hard coaching. Humble and hungry. The social media physique police will appreciate Keon's hard work so far this offseason. Seems like the local pundits are also noticing some on-field growth this Spring.
Let's hope it translates.
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Solomon might be better suited to see the field in an odd-front OLB role or more of a wide-9 alignment. The learning curve would be a lot flatter for him. Our system/coaches greatly prefer long, stout, 3-down types. Solomon IS actually super long-armed, but he obviously ain't tall for the position.
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1 minute ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Are you sure? I want to see Davis for a full season.
I agree with the sentiment. Just wait for 2026. He'll get more snaps this year, provided he shows growth. And then in 2026 he'll be the returning workhouse sharing reps with a rookie and Johnson, most likely.
The Bills are 100% better in 2025 with Cook as part of the team. You're not questioning that, are you?
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3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:
This is not my favorite player but I'm going to give a true shout out to a real unheralded player
Guys like Eric moulds were pro bowlers and considered peers to Terrell Owens.. that's not underrated
He is what he is a phenomenal football player who had more potential and didn't do it
Justin zimmer spent a year on our practice squad.. went to the CFL.. bounced around a few other NFL squads
Landed back in Buffalo with McDermott.. busted his ass as a rotational defensive tackle, when he was maybe the 7th guy in training camp
Became a glue guy for the team that the team loved.. and ended up having a game-winning strip of Cam Newton versus the Patriots when they were going down on a game-winning drive
That's an underappreciated player
That was a helluva heady, hustle play.
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1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
According to that list, Cook is a 8-10 million back.
I don't care if he shows up period. Give the reps to Davis and Johonson and let's move on
The Bills are better with James Cook as part of the team, without question. He might not be worth $20M AAV, but he's worth what he's getting paid in 2025 for sure. So hopefully he does the smart thing and reports for camp eventually. Having another great season would get him closer to his dream of a massive payday. Simple math. Sucks that Hard Knocks has this pre-loaded contract drama to harp on relentlessly.
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21 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
One from the field of Hancock and Lewis *is* a lock. The question is which one? Or do both make it?
We have to have at least one Backup Nickel, which was Cam last season, doubling as a Safety and being counted on the Safety Depth Chart. Jordan Hancock is being brought in for the same role as a Backup Nickel and Safety. Will he outright replace him in Year 1? Time will tell.
While @Bleeding Bills Blue is technically correct that none of them can be called locks (although I agree it's unlikely Hancock is going anywhere) - that doesn't mean it's wide open for a UDFA. Rapp and Bishop will be here. One of Hancock and Lewis will be here. And then there's one more spot for Hamlin (who I don't believe will go from Starter last year to cut until I see it), the loser of the Hancock/Lewis competition, Forrest, and then Owens as a longshot.
In my opinion, it will either be Rapp, Bishop, Hamlin, and Hancock or Rapp, Bishop, Hancock, and Lewis. I envision that Forrest and Owens on the outside looking in, in the eyes of Beane and McDermott.
I actually assume there will be 4 "true" safeties rostered initially, with at least 1 of Lewis and Hancock serving as depth for both NCB and S. Could be a position that gets trimmed once Hoecht and Ogunjobi return, depending on injuries. The lack of an established depth chart might make a deeper room more appealing out of the gates.
2025 OTAs are underway
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
If established, starting NFL vets (minus evergreen speed freaks like Darrell Green) are demonstrably slower after several years in the league, doesn't that legitimately deprioritize combine and pro day 40 times overall? Modern pre-draft speed training isn't exactly correlated with on-field impacts. Losing weight and training 3-point get-offs to trim hundredths off your 40 isn't exactly preparing these rookies for the rigors of an NFL campaign. The fact that NFL vets are potentially several tenths slower than their younger counterparts actually proves that 40 times are arbitrary, provided those vets are still legitimate starters. One can run a "meh" 40 but still have more than enough speed. NFL history is filled with 4.5+ guys who consistently dominated.