Richard Noggin
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Posts posted by Richard Noggin
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5 hours ago, sven233 said:
But regardless, I think they are really hoping to win by having Josh play point guard this year and just get it to the open guy no matter who it is or what position it is. It's a bold strategy that could pay off if it works, but if it doesn't, it's yet another season of not fully committing to building around Allen and just forcing him to make everyone around him better rather than getting Allen the most weapons possible to unlock even another level for Allen in his career.
How is having an elite QB tasked with simply finding the open given guy on any given play, rather than looking to force it to a specific guy the defense is very aware of, some kind of "bold strategy?" Especially when force-feeding specific players, instead of just taking the open reads, was the offense's undoing at times the last two seasons. How does that work?
I get that adding an elite outside, man-beating, separator would have pleased more people, but do we all realize that the 2024 guys who actually fit that mold aren't who you think? Admittedly, Coleman's advanced metrics are generally awful. But there isn't just one mold. Look at the top guys on the attached table. Teams are making all kinds of projections when they're not drafting the TOP dudes. And by most metrics, there is some serious disparity between the stats, and the film, and then the ultimate WR draft values. Troy Franklin had really strong advanced metrics overall (not as much on this chart). Odunze and Nabers, not so much. Worthy actually looks like a stud beyond his straight-line speed. It will therefore be REALLY interesting to see how this WR class acclimates.
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6 hours ago, billsfan89 said:
Here's my breakdown
Offense
QB- Allen/Mitch (2 total)
RB- Cook/Davis/Ty Johnson (3 total)
FB- Gilliam (1)
TE- Kincaid/Knox/Morris (3 total)
WR- Shakir/Coleman/Samuel/MVS/Hollins/Shorter (6 total)
OL- Dawkins/McGovern/SVPG/Torrence/Brown/Edwards/Van Denmark/Collins/Anderson (9 total)
Offense- 23 total
Defense
DT- Ed Oliver/Daquon/Carter/Johnson/D.Williams (5 total)
DE- Groot/AJE/Von/Solomon/Smoot/Jonathan (6 total)
LB- Milano/Bernard/Dorian Williams/Ulofoshio/Morrow/Deion Jones (6 total)
CB- Douglas/Taron/Benford/Elam/Ingram/Hardy (6 total)
S- Edwards/Bishop/Rapp/Cam Lewis (4 total)
Defense total- 27
Specialist
Bass/Martin/Ferguson
Specialist Total- 3
Red Shirt on IR (I know you can't just put a player on IR but I think they will find a way like they did with Shorter) - Grabel
On the bubble - Hamlin, Claypool, Spector, and Toohill
I agree with every position group listed here EXCEPT...LB.
Can't see Spector getting exposed to waivers so the Bills can keep TWO OLD BACKUPS instead. I'd argue Morrow and Jones are competing against each other for one vet spot.
Otherwise, I align with your roster projection.
*Love the whisper in this thread that SVPG is actually an elite long snapper prospect?!? What a beautiful way to potentially open up some roster flexibility. Is that real?
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26 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Fair enough, but imo that means it’s bad strategy to take them before the 6th.
Why waste a solid draft pick on a player you are effectively guaranteeing a maximum 4 year career with your team?
If a rd 2-4 draft pick has RB2 production for a couple years and RB1 production for another couple years, then leaves (and possibly assists a little with comp formula), how is that not a SOLID investment? Lots of rd 2-4 picks just bust.
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3 hours ago, FireChans said:
The guy who said, “I bet you won’t say that when you watch him play.”
I think when you draft a 25 year old running back, he better be contributing week 1, because his career countdown begins.
Only need 4 years out of any drafted RB tbh. Doesn't matter what they do on their 2nd contracts because those deals will come from different teams.
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1 minute ago, buffblue said:
Isn't it kind of a short week for them too? I mean, we both play Sunday. Plus it's Week 2 so we shouldn't be too tired yet lol
I'd argue that a short week after the first game of the season will be especially painful for the players, given how much the preseason has been abbreviated for many of the presumed starters. Not a lot of collisions in TC and PS, so that first game will have dudes sore AF. Not necessarily limited or hurt or anything, just really feeling it. Thankfully it goes this way for both teams.
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12 hours ago, Sweats said:
I have zero concern over the Jets.......they'll implode again this year, like every season before.
Agreed wrt Rodgers and all that, but my fear is that this year they've got a competent backup (Tyrod) who's practically lab-designed to get the Jets run-heavy, strong defensive roster to the playoffs. Then lose in the WC round.
12 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:That team has a ton of talent but the staff and Rodgers running the show will be their downfall.
Why I kinda hope Floyd doesn't end Rodgers' season in week one AGAIN on MNF. Taylor, limited as he is, might be the perfect game manager to capitalize on what the Jets actually do well.
11 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:I’m not sure they even make the playoffs. Bills and Dolphins should at least split with the Jets if not sweep them.
AFC is loaded too
Bills
Bengals
Chiefs
Texans
Ravens
Browns
Steelers
Colts
Jags
All these teams are legit playoff contenders. Colts nearly made it with Gardner Minshew last year.
The Jets coaching is awful. Hackett is horrible and Salah hasn’t proven anything besides he can coach a good defense that has also been absolutely shredded at times. I see the Jets as a fringe playoff team and coaching is their biggest hurdle. Can Hackett be out of the way enough to not be an issue? Is Rodgers going to be good at 40 when he is mulling his next career?
The jets have more hype than they should
Love all the continued Jets hype. So unearned (organizationally) and so market-based and marketing-based. Makes it sweeter when their ridiculous antics (Rodgers hitting the field with the flag streaming, only to be reminded of his mortality 4 plays in, for example). It's kind of heart-warming.
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5 minutes ago, DrMaxPower said:
This place has been miserable AF since the draft. The worst it's been since 'Wrong Josh'.
Good thing I, and everyone thinking like me, was wrong about the "Wrong Josh" thing. (Granted I didn't whine on a message board because what self-respecting adult would do that amiright?!)
5 minutes ago, DrMaxPower said:Everyone wanted a Playstation for Christmas but when they came downstairs, there was a bike with socks and underwear. Instead of realizing that there's nothing wrong with a bike and we really needed new socks and gotch, it's tantrum time.
Are we going to have to endure this endless whining for the next 6 months? Sounds like a fun way to be a fan...
We all know the answer here. Obviously (remember when that was a fun Bills joke, obviously?!)
5 minutes ago, DrMaxPower said:Last off-season people were losing their minds because they intended to run Spencer Brown back out there and they didn't sign a MLB. They said their guys were in house and they believed in their development. Seems to have worked out OK. That's what good teams do.
Bernard and Brown definitely outperformed all external expectations. Love to see it from drafted talent entering years two and three. That's REALLY important.
5 minutes ago, DrMaxPower said:Can we not take a breath and wait and see? 2nd best record in the league over the last 5 years says they deserve at least a bit of confidence. They aren't the morons people want to make them out to be.
But but but what about our Dunning-Kruger Effects?!
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3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:
Humble brag. Lol. They stopped giving the Wonderlic at the combine after 2021. I'm not sure if teams can give it to a prospect on a pre draft visit though.
Good news. That test is total bulls#!t
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I just took a Wonderlic test with no prep and beaucoup mitigating factors and still scored a 41. It's a bogus, ethnocentric standardized test. If you score well you're probably smart, but if you don't score well, that does NOT mean you're not smart. It's more about cultural fluency. It's actually REALLY flawed and problematic, and not at all relevant to football.
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7 hours ago, <bills4life> said:
Here are the last nine receivers drafted in the first round who haven’t reached 600 yards in a season:
John Ross (9th overall pick in 2017)
N’Keal Harry (32nd overall pick in 2019)
Henry Ruggs (12th overall pick in 2020)
Jalen Reagor (21st overall pick in 2020)
Kadarius Toney (20th overall pick in 2021)
Rashod Bateman (27th overall pick in 2021)
Jameson Williams (12th overall pick in 2022)
Jahan Dotson (16th overall pick in 2022)
Treylon Burks (18th overall pick in 2022)
After crunching the numbers, all the wide receivers listed above fall into one of two groups. Except for John Ross.
Way too early to make a proclamation one way or the other. Scouts get it wrong every bit as much as the best draftniks.
Bateman just got a two year extension, that goes into effect after his upcoming 4th season with Baltimore (instead of a pricey, fully guaranteed 5th year option...seems smart AF even if the player hasn't fully stepped up yet).
Williams in DET and Dotson in WAS both seem like guys who will be counted on this season to take another step forward. They are VERY likely to leave this list as long as they stay healthy.
5 hours ago, Mr. Wonderful said:Don't think his Wonderlic score was off the chart but good looking kid who seems grounded and fun to be around. Hope he can play!
Difficult to tell for certain what you're driving at here, but I'd argue that Coleman easily comes off as a LOT savvier than most 20 year-old WR prospects. There are a number of icky biases inherent in your assumption about Keon Coleman's aptitude. The Wonderlic is being phased out already and with good reason.
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6 hours ago, Warcodered said:
mmm hands catches galore!
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26 minutes ago, Ghost_002! said:
Ha ha and yet he partook in a roast where people sat and crack jokes about him all night long....
Please make this post make sense.
WUT? He laughed at a joke about his billionaire money launderer (funneled money to his TB12 enterprise to avoid salary cap restrictions), Robert Kraft, then awkwardly and unprecedently leaned in and told a comedian "don't say that s#!t again." Okay. Yeah, that's confident energy at a roast when a 100% true topic is raised. Defending him is a funny bit.
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Just now, Mango said:
St Joes hired an additional full time communications/marketing head whose sole job was to manage Chad Kelly.
I poop you not.
I know a dozen or so St Joe's grads who were all 2 years ahead of Kelly and so were around for all the nonsense at that level. Chad Kelly has been overwhelmingly despised at every step along his journey, it seems. What a terrible nepo bro.
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3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:
3 QBs? It seems like we could use another camp arm.
Beane has said very recently that with current summer practice rules, there aren't enough snaps to go around for 4 QBs. FWIW
And tbh, looking at this roster, I very easily compiled a 53 without really any sacrifices:
Josh Allen #17
Mitch Trubisky #11James Cook #4
Ray Davis #22
Ty Johnson #26Reggie Gilliam #41
Keon Coleman #0
Curtis Samuel #1
Khalil Shakir #10
Mack Hollins #13
Justin Shorter #18+ 1 more (isabella and hamler seem like candidates)
Dalton Kincaid #86
Dawson Knox #88
Quintin Morris #85Dion Dawkins #73
David Edwards #76
Connor McGovern #66
O'Cyrus Torrence #64
Spencer Brown #79
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La'el Collins #71
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger #62
Ryan Van Demark #74
Alec Anderson #70Von Miller #40
Greg Rousseau #50
AJ Epenesa #57
Javon Solomon #56
Casey Toohill #95 or Kingsley Jonathan #59Ed Oliver #91
Daquan Jones #92
DeWayne Carter #90
Austin Johnson #98
DeShawn Williams #99Matt Milano #58
Terrel Bernard #43
Dorian Williams #42
Edefuan Ulofoshio #48
Baylon Spector #54Deion Jones #45 or Nicholas Morrow #52
Rasul Douglas #31
Christian Benford #47
Taron Johnson #7
Kaiir Elam #5
Daequan Hardy #25
Ja'Marcus Ingram #46
Cole Bishop #24
Mike Edwards #21
Taylor Rapp #9
Cam Lewis #33
Tyler Bass #2
Sam Martin #8 or Matt Haack #15
Reid Ferguson #69-
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41 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
With all due respect to you and the guy on WGR - I agree to disagree.
If Coleman takes to things like a fish in water in Training Camp and the Pre-Season with Josh, maybe McDermott changes his spots a little bit. But he's frustratingly conservative bringing along Rookies out of the gate. We didn't start utilizing Kincaid on a regular basis until the end of the year, even after he was showing signs early. And Beane himself also said Coleman's probably not stating the year.
As for Shakir, again, I don't know who this guy is who said this - but from the sounds of it, it sounds like a national guy who was hypothesizing. I've yet to hear this from more connected local guys.
And from a logical standpoint, it doesn't make much sense. You've got a guy who was looked at in league circles as a Slot only guy at the next level. He's shown growth year to year there and was playing at a very high level last season. Working the middle of the field, finding gaps in short yardage, and intermediately against Nickel CB's and LB's. We're now going to take him from where he was great and growing and then tell him to do something completely differently?
And I don't know how they could think that. They didn't ask him to do it very often last season. Only when we were in a pinch late in the year with Davis down. And when we did, he didn't produce from that spot, as opposed to how he was producing in the Slot.
Can't disagree with the McD + (slow-playing) rookies sentiments, but...
...there have been significant challenges to our widely accepted view of McD's conservative rookie development approach. These include: O'Cyrus Torrence, Tremaine Edmunds, Tre White, Spencer Brown, Christian Benford, Groot and Ed Oliver. Roughly 1 rookie per year gets starting traction from the jump, on average. And usually another rookie or two begins to contribute with increasing frequency/impact as the season progresses. Bunch more really solid examples there: with Allen and Milano leading that accelerated year-one progression charge.
Sounds to my Bills ears like Coleman will have EVERY chance to see the field a LOT early on, and like Bishop will definitely rotate in and play Teams, and Carter will absolutely be the #3 or #4 DT in the rotation there. I think Solomon will actually get a bunch of pass rush reps by mid-year if game scripts allow for it.
(I hope Shorter and/or Shavers take a legitimate step forward this season. We all should, of course, but I am actually optimistic one of them will earn an outside spot.)
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20 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:
So many (rhetorical) questions:
- Will polite friends even bring this up in conversation?
- To what degree will Jimbo get asked about this in his daily conversations?
- Will some friends and acquaintances actually go so far as to give him "flack" for this?
Then separately:
- Does Jimbo feel any responsibility for the person his nephew has become?
- Should Jimbo feel any responsibility for the person his nephew has become?
- How many of you are uncles or significant elders to a younger person?
- How much responsibility do you feel for how that younger person has turned out?
I also try not rushing to judgement but my first reaction is not that there's been "wrongful accusations in the past."
My first reaction is that "Chad Kelly has a terrible track record and it's really hard to give him any benefit of the doubt."
BTW I see now that the Argos have suspended him for the preseason and half the regular season.
Jim Kelly, at this point, would just hope for his nephew finally getting "saved" or some such BS.
Kelly was a notorious terrible dude until his unfortunate family wake-up call. Chad has ALWAYS been known as a privileged d-ooo-sh since way back. They're a-holes. Just the way it is.
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For a 6'5" guy who was married to the world's richest supermodel, Tom Brady exudes small D energy. Amazing how petty and petulant he is. What an angry little loser. Sure, he won a lot of football games, but he is a humorless weirdo. Eff him.
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On 5/7/2024 at 5:06 PM, BillsFanForever19 said:
Coleman won't start the year, as McDermott is notoriously slow bringing Rookies along and Beane has already said he'll "have a hard time starting at the beginning of the year". Samuel is not an Outside WR. He has flexibility to play there occasionally in certain packages and matchups. But he's 75% from the Inside or coming out of the Backfield. When asked about Samuel, he's referred to him as simply as a "weapon" and not strictly in one spot. He'll be used all over the field. Shakir is a pure slot. Regardless of how good of a Slot you are, that doesn't mean you move to the Outside. It's a completely different game and style of play. One that Shakir is not made for physically or stylistically, which is why he fell to the 5th Round for us, and also didn't produce there when given minimal reps in the Playoffs when we were hurting on the Outside.
On 5/7/2024 at 6:00 PM, Rampant Buffalo said:First off, I agree with you on Shakir. He is strictly a slot WR, and I don't see him as a contributor on the outside. That said, I like Shakir as a slot. He may not have Cole Beasley's route running ability, but at least his catch percentage is refreshingly high. If you have someone like Shakir in the slot, you don't need to spend big bucks on some other slot receiver.
But, the Bills spent some decent cash on Curtis Samuel. If, like Shakir, Samuel is also strictly a slot, then signing him was a mistake. Giving Samuel the contract he got makes sense only if he can be productive as a Z receiver. With the Bills' cap situation, they simply don't have the luxury of giving out Curtis Samuel type contracts for the purpose of having a redundancy of slot receivers.
I don't think Beane is going to automatically write off the Curtis Samuel signing as a failure, before he's taken a single snap in a Bills uniform. Instead, I expect him to be given the opportunity to show what he can do, as a Z receiver. If he doesn't achieve much in that role, then maybe Beane picks up the phone and asks about what it would take to acquire Hopkins.
As for Coleman: my understanding is that he only has two years of football experience. I expect him to improve upon his biggest weakness (route running and gaining separation). That improvement might not happen right away, and I expect him to be a better player in week 17 than he is in week 1. If you need a guy to carry you through the first half of the season while Coleman learns, I'd be fine using some resources on that. Some. But not necessarily the type of resources you'd need to acquire and keep Hopkins.
Some football guy was on WGR today or yesterday sharing what he's heard about the Bills (SUPER vague, apologies) and he claims the Bills see Shakir as much more than just a strictly slot guy. They allegedly think he can play outside just as well.
Didn't say the same about Samuel, mind you, who most think will be their pre-snap move monster in a way they had hoped Harty might shine early on last season (they def tried in the first few games).
So that leaves Coleman as the Gabe Davis X role on the depth chart, obviously. I think McD is FULLY willing to let that happen early and often if Coleman can get on Josh's page. (Shouldn't be difficult to get synced up with Allen as well as Davis was OR WASN'T.) Then I'd see Shakir and Samuel flexing between Z and Y a bunch with Kincaid also effectively being a Y guy.
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10 hours ago, The Jokeman said:
I have reservations, I mean Corey Moore lead the NCAA in sacks when we drafted him and like Solomon he was undersized and busted. It doesn't mean Solovan will but there is a reason he fell in the draft and pretty sure it wasn't based on production/attitude or off the field issues....
Corey Moore was 2 inches shorter, even, about 20 lbs lighter, and definitely didn't have NEARLY the length of Solomon (who might not be TALL, but he is long af). Corey Moore was a bad NFL projection. Javon Solomon, imho, is not. A team will need to play with a lead to really employ him in his first couple years as a pass rush specialist, but I have a sense he can excel in that defined role.
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19 minutes ago, wppete said:
I think the only knock on him is his height. 6’1 and half. Other then that he is a great player.NOT a great player against the run right away, or maybe ever, is the other major concern. Still a component of the historically low percentile height/weight. A story in charts (curious why shuttle/3-cone aren't included here but are for others...who picks which numbers rate?):
(for the record, but don't tell anyone in case I'm wrong, I think Solomon might be SPECIAL)
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2 hours ago, nosejob said:
BTW, the guy I'm hanging my hat on is Solomon. This team needs what only other teams seem to get on the DL.
2 hours ago, wppete said:It was a great video! Great draft class. I think Javon Solomon is going to be the steal of the draft class.
Agree with both of you. I think people are snoozing on this guy. Even that embedded video was brief on him (although McD DID really seem authentically high on the guy).
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8 minutes ago, Turk71 said:
Unfortunately Coleman was not very good vs press man and single coverage.
Being bigger doesn't necessarily make you better at getting off the line, Troy Franklin at 180 lbs was top 2 yprr vs press man and top 3 vs single. Footwork and hands are what beat the press.
I really thought Franklin was a fit. So curious why popular opinion (and my own) was mostly wrong about his draft value?
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10 hours ago, Slippery Rubber Mats said:
Worthy should have gone top 15 with all the praise he's getting all of a sudden. Great player
His combine 40 kinda broke a lot of brains. He's a decent prospect even if he didn't run that record-(and brain)-breaking time. I thought he might go a bit earlier.
7 hours ago, blacklabel said:These takes about Beane leaving Josh hanging in terms of the players around him are...something, I guess. Two straight drafts now they've spent their first pick in the guy Josh wanted. He wanted Kincaid last year, they jump up a couple spots and give him Kincaid. He wanted Coleman this year, they give him Coleman while being able to gain more draft capital in the process.
Some of y'all are hung up on the speed thing. John Brown, Isaiah McKenzie, Deonte Harty, even tried to get a guy like Tavon Austin going again, now they have KJ Hamler to see if he can bounce back. Aside from Brown, the speedster guy hasn't really had much impact for this team.
Some of y'all said they didn't give him a #1 WR. They went out and got Diggs for him.
Oh, they don't have a decent enough run game to take pressure off him. They've drafted Singletary, Moss, Cook, and now Davis. Singletary was fine, Moss didn't quite work out, Cook really came on last season and if you can't get behind a guy like Ray Davis then I don't know what to tell you.
It's clear that some of you are locked into your stance on this regime and no matter what they do, they're always gonna fall short of your ever changing expectations.
I dunno, man, but for me, in the grand scheme of things this is still just a game. A highly entertaining game that can be a lot of fun and I know a lot of people are very passionate about their teams. Maybe I'm just an old fart but these days it's much easier for me to sit back with the wait and see approach and not get worked up about this draft pick or this trade or which guy KC got and blah blah blah. I'm guessing some of you didn't live through the drought years where there was real, actual incompetence running the show. That is not the case with this front office.
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17 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:
3 out of the 5 made it to a SB... So....
That's for sure relevant. Losing Super Bowls, however, tends to be a setback that carries over into the following season, doesn't it? Not a lot of runners-up are remembered fondly as excellent teams.
Micah Hyde and safety depth discussion
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Probably isn't going to dorm at St John Fisher for a couple weeks, no matter if he's leaning towards one more run or not. He seems SUPER open to running it back in 2024, but this current uncertainty is all an understandable part of NOT attending training camp. Hyde isn't going to half-arse anything, so best he doesn't sign up before they get back to Orchard Park and into the regular season practice groove.
There is obviously a cool little league-wide list of end-of-career, celebrated UFAs (often D-linemen or WRs) who haven't signed until the end of summer, or even later, into the season.