[1st vs 2nd Round WR Hit Rate]

11 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

This is a good point and a large part of how successful a player is or isn't comes down to how they are used, the scheme they play in and the opportunities they are given.  I mean would Puka Nacua have gotten such a prominent role in the offense if Cooper Kupp hadn't been injured?  Probably not. Also, a WR drafted in the 3rd round on a bad team might get a lot more snaps as a top 3 WR than a 1st round pick drafted on a good team. Or at least a similar number of reps, and might be targeted more often than a rookie on a good team simply due to too many players and not enough balls to go around where the same player on a bad team doesn't have this issue.

 

 

Obviously McVay's offense WILL feature SOMEone in that ultra-productive Z/move-WR role, year after year. He's especially good at designing production. Give him a healthy Atwell and Cupp to go with Nacua, and you'll see fireworks. 

 

17 minutes ago, julian said:

Yeah then I’m out on that, Brown is progressing nicely.

 

He IS entering the final year of his rookie deal, right? Will they pay BOTH OTs big money in 2025? After 2023, Brown isn't on a bargain FA RT trajectory (if he continues to develop or even if he just plateaus where he's at). Of course you'd prefer to see the org re-sign the guy they saw the value in and worked to develop. But you can't keep them all. 

[Odd mock draft]

8 hours ago, nosejob said:

  A guy on OBL made a really cool what if scenario....

 

What if BB traded 2025 1st/2nd and 3rd to get to 4 with AZ. (we keep 28) AZ. would still have a 1st rd. pick later.

 

What if BB then traded back ... probably twice, ( to 8-12 then maybe 12 to 20)) getting an extra 2nd and 3rd for this year and next.

 

Gives us 2 1sts 2 2nds and a 3rd.  not to mention regaining 2 for 25.  

 

Can you elaborate on/clarify the initial trade up to 4 that does NOT include 28? Is the cost only 2025 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rd picks? To get to #4? The future picks value doesn't even come close. Maybe I'm missing info. 

 

 

4 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

Ladd McConkey will be a bust,  hard pass

 

Love to hear an outlier opinion like this -- can you say more?

[Diggs traded to Texans for picks]

5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Maddy Glab told us. We didn’t have her back.

 

5 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I never doubted her, that’s for sure. I have been pretty clear about that. 

 

Whether Glab's hot mic take was accurate or not was never really the issue for me, as much as "Team reporter gets caught absolutely blasting #1 WR's character and does NOT get fired for it." 

[Mock draft simulators.]

Moved up for Thomas Jr using only a future 2nd and 4th. Gained back a 3rd and 4th later. Got 7 real dudes who "should" all make the roster and contribute year one. (Only wish IOL had made more sense when I was picking; major regret.)

 

[Mock draft simulators.]

If a defensive stud falls to 28 (like Chop Robinson below), we have to be open to the Bills letting the draft fall to them and maximizing value while adding great prospects at premier positions (DE, WR, etc). Ja'Lynn Polk at 60 is outstanding value for an unheralded guy who might be an awesome #2 type WR. This draft would benefit the org long term with a new favorite at LG, real rotational pieces at CB and DT and S and RB, and late round flyers on talented WR and OT. Could be eight guys who contribute meaningfully in first two years. LFG.

 

[Diggs traded to Texans for picks]

46 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I have this memory from the Thanksgiving game in 2022 vs Detroit … Allen to diggs  to set up the winning FG. It is one of many that sticks In my mind. And the NE game where he had like 5 TDs. But  players come and go I guess 

 

 

Was there for that one. Special moment, for sure. That game was stressful. The better team that day did not necessarily win. 

 

Actually reminded me a lot of that Sammy Watkins post-route snag (in Detroit against the Jets) many years prior. I happened to be at both games (family in Detroit area). 

[Need maybe two things in this draft]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Safety, corner, sledgehammer RB, IOL, pass rush. 

 

WR also.

 

Plus depth.

 

The text in red is probably going to inspire disagreement. WR should not be an "also" level need. It should be a primary need. Our most pressing need. Samuel and Shakir are fine pieces, but the Bills badly need an infusion of dangerous talent. In the draft, Thomas and Worthy and Legette best meet that criterium: dudes who can potentially make defenses adjust or pay. I think only 1 or 2 of them will be available at 28. But are Worthy and/or Legette good value at 28? Is a Newton or Robinson or DeJean too tempting? Will they then rely on a 2nd rd trade-UP to secure their X receiver of the present and future? 

 

"WR also" implies a kind of "we'll take whoever is still available at 60" kind of vibe that basically no one appreciates.

[Need maybe two things in this draft]

On 4/5/2024 at 12:21 PM, MrEpsYtown said:

What annoys me is the this notion of a #1 receiver. The Chiefs won the last two championships without much at receiver but a TE who was a threat. The Niners have a #1 receiver who is a slot guy and is hurt a-lot. The Patriots won all those years without a real #1 and the time that they had one in Randy Moss they lost to the Giants. The Eagles won one with a backup QB and Zach Ertz. 
 

I think it is just an overrated notion that we need a big X or whatever. Erhardt-perkins doesn’t even really have these traditional receiver positions built in. It’s about concepts and you have an outside guy and an inside guy. In trips you have an outside guy, and inside guy and a middle guy and they run different routes depending on the concept called and the coverage. 

 

We just need good players who can run routes and be where they are supposed to be. If you can get a game breaker who the defense has to double, thats amazing. 
 

How many true #1s are there in the league anyway? Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase…CeeDee Lamb and Amon Ra St. Brown probably but they are really slot players. Davante Adams probably, but he is slowing down as is Cooper Kupp and I need to see Nacua repeat this year before I annoint him. Deebo, but he is a slot/gadget guy. This notion that you need a true number 1 is a myth. There are like 5-6 teams in the league with true #1 receivers imo. 
 

Just give your all world QB weapons that are reliable, catch the football, and play within the system. 

 

Your first bolded (by me) section is fascinating stuff that we rarely discuss. I think E-P (as installed by Daboll and then Dorsey) has actually been a detriment to this offense the past two seasons--its noted density and complexity and pre- and post-snap checks and options remind me of why Rex Ryan's defense was difficult for his Bills players to execute as the league evolved: it made players think and adjust and read and react more and more as opposing schemes disguised more and more...to the point that players who weren't many years deep in the system had difficulty playing fast and communicating well, leading to breakdowns. Gabe Davis, very notably, had continued issues reading coverages and altering his routes IN REAL TIME, IN SYNC WITH HIS QUARTERBACK. The fault could have been with his QB at times, for sure, and likely was. But it only seemed to happen often between those two (and consistently over the span of four years). Sanders was the other guy who came in and seemed to have some difficulty getting on the same page as Allen. 

 

So, good on you for even typing "Erhardt-Perkins." My most pressing reaction is that I think Brady will continue moving the Bills offense AWAY from what Daboll installed, and also then what Dorsey seemed to be unable to bend to his own vision (that 21 personnel some of us saw coming, and any kind of marriage between run and pass). Brady, we hope, continues to emphasize attacking all quadrants of the field with a mix of run and pass, of power and zone, of max protect and play-action and screens and vertical shots. The back half of last season hinted at a brand of balance and multiplicity that increases the Bills' chances of solving defensive riddles against top flight competition.

 

But also, you CAN'T OVERLOOK Cooper in Cleveland (even though I don't care for the player), Allen in Chicago, Evans still in Tampa, Brown in Philly, Kelce in KC, etc. Your definition of "true #1" is probably too narrow. You're maybe defining a somewhat outdated, alignment-specific set of WR X or Z parameters, rather than a production-specific set of parameters. 

[Mock draft simulators.]

18 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Hey wtf is this trade offer? 

 

 

I'm flabbergasted. Man I hate the Chiefs 

 

Just wanna bump this absolute bull s#!t the Chiefs and PFN conspired to toss my way. I mean, it's amazing that this was offered at all. Just remarkable.

[Are we really going to miss any of the departed players?]

13 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

Floyd fell off a cliff, not sure it hurts as much as you think. What did he bring the the second half if the season?

 

Like everyone else on the defense, he was hurt. But yeah he did fail to bounce back from that hurt and produce again.

[Diggs traded to Texans for picks]

13 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I’m sad bc I have a big canvas photo of  Allen and diggs doing their handshake  on my basement wall and I guess I need to replace it now but I love it. 

 

Nah, leave it. Their love affair for the first two seasons was awesome to root for. The disappointment/failures of 13 seconds seems to be the inflection point; both guys were changed, as were fans. Maybe ALL for the worse. Diggs started Diggsing on the socials. Allen started introduced some serious disruptions in his personal affairs, which coincided with some on-field disruptions as well. This might have made Diggs get even Diggsier. And the fans did not take any of these disruptions in stride. The Allen-to-Davis fireworks leading up to the Billsy collapse had everyone's offensive expectations all out of whack. (Still so fascinating that Diggs was most notable in his absolute absence from that game.) Lots of blame to go around. But it was FUN while it lasted. Celebrate it.  

[Mock draft simulators.]

4 minutes ago, ScorpionZero said:

That's why I constantly select Pritchett, perfect for for our D.

Buffalo Fambase BB on fanspeak. 

 

28: R1 P28 WR Ladd McConkey - Georgia

60: R2 P28 S Tyler Nubin - Minnesota

128: R4 P28 CB Nehemiah Pritchett - Auburn

133: R4 P33 WR Luke McCaffrey - Rice

144: R5 P9 WR Jamari Thrash - Louisville

160: R5 P25 RB Will Shipley - Clemson

163: R5 P28 EDGE Jalyx Hunt - Houston Christian

196: R6 P20 C Andrew Raym - Oklahoma

200: R6 P24 LB Nathaniel Watson - Mississippi State

248: R7 P28 DL Evan Anderson - FAU

 

Pro Football Network has Pritchett being a much later pick on average. His rankings have improved throughout the season, but he's still often available later on day three (usually right around where Cornelius Johnson is going, somewhere in the 190s). Insane value (so somewhat unrealistic) as I see it. 

 

I find many of the other mock draft sites way too trashed up with ads and popups and/or limited functionality for non-members. 

[Are we really going to miss any of the departed players?]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 

Offensive line

Out with Bates and Morse.  Considering Bates played all of 35 snaps, I don't think he'll be missed.  Morse on the other hand has been the Bills center for the last 5 years and has done a very good job, but at 32 it is a reasonable question to ask how much he has left in the tank.  Beane solution is moving McGovern to center and creating a competition for the guard spot to returnee David Edwards (148 snaps last season - the most by a Bills backup OL) and presumably veteran La'el Collins. Collins has started 86 of 89 career games as a rt, but missed last season with injuries.  

 

 

Hadn't thought of Collins as a candidate to compete for the LG spot. Still don't tbh. That dude's an average starting RT (not an insult in this context), and so presumably an above average swing tackle. I know tackles bump inside easier than guards move outside, but of course not all OTs make good OGs. Dawkins, Brown, Collins, and Van Demark is a nice OT room. I say leave it at that and find the new starting LG among a pool of Edwards, Anderson, and a day two or three draftee. 

 

(Admittedly, I do quietly still think Dawkins would be an ELITE LG. But he's a pretty dang good LT, and now he's also really well paid for a while, so that's silly talk.)

[Mock draft simulators.]

1 minute ago, ScorpionZero said:

I like it, especially when guerendo is involved. But more so that, taking Hart and Smith offer multiple position possibilities. Hart offers superior length and thrives in zone, but could pay safety as well, I believe. And Smith can play safety but also move in to play nickel. It's like covering multiple zones with 2 people.

 

I think doubling up at WR is just smart in a potentially elite WR pool when the team has such a need there. 

 

The S pool is not similarly stacked, but there are some guys and the Bills coaching staff seems to be better than average in developing secondary players. 

 

I say go heavy at both WR and DB and turn perceived weaknesses into strengths. 

[Mock draft simulators.]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

14. WR Brian Thomas Jr  LSU

(Saints rumored to trade down)

(28, 128, 2025 2nd via MIN/HOU) 

 

40. WR Xavier Legette SC 

(Commanders have two 2nds)

(60, 5th, 2025 2nd) 

 

133.  S  James Williams Miami 

144.  RB  Braelon Allen  Wisconsin

 

160.  DT  Justin Jefferson  LSU 

 

163.  OT  Frank Crum  Wyoming

 

3 minutes ago, ScorpionZero said:

Good use of next year's 2, 2nds. I'm a little surprised at Williams at safety considering what McDermott asks of them. And I must see who this Crum fellow is.

 

Nobody hates James Williams as much as FSU fans, from what I've seen online. Seems like a rocked up guy who just isn't great at football. Lack of instincts and athleticism seem like major red flags this high in the draft. As a sub-package LB the player MIGHT have value down the line, is my read. 

 

As evidenced by latest mock (above), I LOVE Thomas and Legette in first two rounds. Take a look at my mock above for how I'd prefer the Bills approach the rest of this "type" of draft. 

[Mock draft simulators.]

My favorite mock draft to date. Only giving next year's 2nd and 3rd to move up to 20 and grab Thomas Jr in front of the Dolphins. WR room is now STACKED with Legette as well in rd 2. Love the way needs get filled with value throughout remainder of draft. I grade this one an A+ lol

 

[Mock draft simulators.]

Hey wtf is this trade offer? 

 

 

I'm flabbergasted. Man I hate the Chiefs 

[[POLL] Should The Bills Trade Up For A WR?]

8 hours ago, CountDorkula said:

Better Idea

 

trade 28 for Higgins or Aiyuk

trade a 2nd this year and a 25 1st for a 24 1st and grab Thomas Jr from LSU. 
 

 

profit. 

 

The time for spending both draft assets AND cap assets on an established WR is long gone...

 

The Bills need to be focused on adding elite WR talent at a cost-controlled cap hit via the draft. The QB is mature enough to help raise youngins now. New plan.

[Beane Press Conference 4pm]

2 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

This says it all about Diggs:

 

👀

[Mock draft simulators.]

At the risk of being a total joiner...

 

Traded up to Saints #14 = Bills #28 + Bills 2025 1st and Min 2025 2nd -- to grab Rome Odunze, among other moves.

 

How we feeling about Odunze and Cornelius Johnson at WR plus value at DT, RB, OG, S (former Miami secondary coach is with Bills now) and CB?

 

[Diggs traded to Texans for picks]

50 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

As to the bolded, I'm pretty sure it's NOT true that Diggs' decline in production was the result of double-teams. Defenses definitely shaded his way with a safety at times, but what I recall neutralizing him the most was the physical, press-man attention he got from #1 corners.

 

Whereas he used to often win against aggressive, press-man coverage, he has had more difficulty doing so in the past two years (and the past two post-seasons against KC in particular). Then last year we also saw some misses when Diggs DID defeat his coverage. Some of those misfires were on Allen at times, no doubt, but down the stretch and in the playoffs we were watching a diminished Diggs drop balls and lose contested catch situations. Those misfires were season-altering.

 

Can anyone verify that defenses back in 2020-2022 used to actually put their #1 CBs on Davis and/or Brown/Sanders and then double Diggs with their #2 CB and a safety? I might remember that being a thing for a minute. 

 

Spagnuolo has been successful, especially in the playoffs, challenging his young corners to matchup physically and aggressively with our guys. Obviously Gabe Davis won that matchup a handful of times that one game (especially against his former UCF teammate, Mike Hughes). But otherwise, how many SBs has Spags' scheme pulled off? 

[Diggs traded to Texans for picks]

15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Not sure if it was posted already and not reading this entire thread to find out

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

The timing makes no sense for the Bills unless we’re accumulating trade capital.  On its own, we’re getting a 2025 2nd rounder and have to take the full Diggs cap hit this year.  Might as well wait to trade him after June 1st if you’re only getting a 2025 pick anyway.  

 

We all understand that Diggs' 2024 cap hit is only $3M more now than it would have been with him here, right? I fear when fans read "dead cap hit" they imagine some additional cap penalty for moving him. It's basically the same as him being here, but now the Bills will save mucho cap space in 2025 and beyond. 

 

I'm excited to see Joe Brady calling plays, and Josh Allen distributing the football, COMPLETELY FREE of selfish egos in the huddle and on the sideline. The Diggs+Allen political marriage had obviously fractured over the years. Time to let Josh lead the ticket in this election cycle. I like Kincaid as a potential WR1a, with Samuel as WR1b, and some weekly blend of a 1st rd rookie WR, Shakir, and Cook as WR3s, depending on the matchups and tendencies. 

 

KC has won b2b championships with Kelce as WR1 and a mix of WRs and RBs filling roles behind him. I like the Bills going for something similar but with a more consistent and dangerous and multiple run game to boot. Gotta have multiple solutions to every problem NFL defensive coordinators throw out you in a given season. 

[Diggs traded to Texans for picks]

18 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I will say that the Texans on paper have quite an offense. I will also say they’re playing a dangerous game imo. 
 

They have a clearly ascending player in CJ Stroud going into his second year and looks like a future star. The dangerous game is they added two players who are known as malcontents in Diggs and Mixon surrounding him who can wear and take a toll on a young QB and team of things aren’t going their way. 

 

Neither Diggs nor Mixon has EVER been a "malcontent" in their first years with a given team. Let's not be sloppy and wrong with how to look at Mixon's deplorable off-field violence (makes him a doosh but hasn't impacted his ability to be a pro on a winning team) and Diggs' regrettable sideline and social media insider trading/signaling (didn't even exist in Buffalo in first two seasons--until 13 seconds and his first playoff disappearing act). 

 

Mixon was a major part of the offensive equation that allowed Burrow to ascend in Cincinnati, and Diggs was a MAJOR part of the offensive AND PERSONAL equation that allowed Allen to ascend in Buffalo. Both equations have changed over the years, and both teams have chosen to move on. 

[Diggs traded to Texans for picks]

19 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

2nd round pick

 

In a future year that is a 3rd round value. Which is why I characterized BOTH picks the Bills gave up as 6th round values. Ya dig?

[Diggs traded to Texans for picks]

16 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

I don't know how much this hurts us as a team this season, but I do know those that are now ripping Diggs performance in the last half of the season and in the playoffs since he's no longer a Bill are probably not thinking about the attention he was getting which allowed guys like Shakir to make plays. That stuff matters, and now those players will have more attention coming their way. Just putting things in perspective a bit 

 

Another thing I want to comment on is that Beane has really done something very unlike him...which is to paint himself into a corner in the draft. Now the Bills have made it blatantly obvious that we need to draft wideouts, and early at that. What I'd like to see is for him to stand pat and draft a Legette, Mitchell, or Keon Coleman if he feels they are worthy of the spot they would be selected.

 

If Beane does decide to move up, then he better be absolutely positive he's getting a star because it's going to cost us alot this year and probably next as well

 

Beane also better hope the Texans don't beat us and advance further in the playoffs. That will make things even more embarrassing for a franchise that doesn't need anymore of that

 

As to the bolded, I'm pretty sure it's NOT true that Diggs' decline in production was the result of double-teams. Defenses definitely shaded his way with a safety at times, but what I recall neutralizing him the most was the physical, press-man attention he got from #1 corners.

 

Whereas he used to often win against aggressive, press-man coverage, he has had more difficulty doing so in the past two years (and the past two post-seasons against KC in particular). Then last year we also saw some misses when Diggs DID defeat his coverage. Some of those misfires were on Allen at times, no doubt, but down the stretch and in the playoffs we were watching a diminished Diggs drop balls and lose contested catch situations. Those misfires were season-altering.