SoTier

All teams factor in their needs when they draft players. When teams draft "for need", however, they rank their needs and decide what position they need most. They aren't willing to take advantage of a better player falling into their laps. If they decide that they need an edge rusher more than anything else, they draft Aaron Maybin, a lesser prospect than numerous other players available, in the first round so they're sure they have him. In that 2009 draft, if the Bills had drafted BPA rather than for need, they could have had Orakpo (66 sacks in a 10 year career including 3 Pro Bowl appearanaces) or one of the OTs (another position they needed desperately) and still picked up a decent DE in the second round as Connor Barwin who had a 10 year career and 56.5 sacks wasn't taken until almost the middle of that round. Maybin had a grand total of 6 sacks in a 4 year career. When teams have a BPA draft strategy, they are flexible in how they view their needs. Beane said as much when discussing why he took Jake Fromm in the fifth. If the Bills had drafted for need, they probably would have taken a DB or LB rather than a backup QB -- and maybe not drafted a kicker at all. If a team has what they consider an "immediate" need, they move before the draft to fill that through FA or trade -- as the Bills did by trading for Diggs which not only enabled them to be more flexible in the draft itself but also gave them a much better player for 2020 than they had any real hope of acquiring through the draft.

I think the Bills pretty much went BPA which I believe in. Having a decent roster means that the team doesn't have to "reach" to fill desperate needs on either side of the ball, consequently no 'WTF picks". Now, if the Bills can re-sign their top performers from recent drafts, they'll be on their way to doing what teams that consistently make the playoffs do -- grab talented players regardless of position rather than trying to fill holescreated by continually letting their top young starters leave in FA.

I'm not saying McDermott and company are something nasty you don't want to step in. I'm saying they aren't as good as Reid and Harbaugh and their staffs, who are among the very best in the entire NFL.

First round QBs who fail with their original teams -- and Winston not being re-signed by TB is certainly a failure no matter how many yards he racked up -- don't get a chance at a second gig as a starter elsewhere unless they're willing to swallow their pride and settle for being a backup at first. This is a smart move by both Winston and the Saints. If Payton and his staff can improve Winston's decision making, they may have found their successor to Brees -- and Winston may get to be the kind of QB he was drafted to be. I'm very concerned that Cam might land in NE, especially since the Pats didn't draft a QB. He doesn't seem to be Belichick's "type" but Belichick's only had 1 QB for the last 2 decades, so who's to say that he won't/can't adapt to a more mobile QB? Don't underestimate how much Belichick wants to win games. Moreover, maybe Cam could do better in an offense in which he's asked to sacrifice his body less.

Likely having more losses than last year's 2 doesn't lessen the Ravens' dominance in the AFC. The NFL is simply too competitive for any team to repeatedly lose only 2 games a season. The Ravens and Chiefs are the class of the AFC by a significant margin. They retained most of their outstanding talent from 2019 and have two of the best coaching staffs in the entire NFL. Barring catastrophic injuries, those two teams are making the playing offs. The Bills are in the second tier -- teams likely to make the playoffs -- along with the Patriots, Steelers, Browns, Titans, Colts and Texans. I'm not writing off the Pats at this point because there are still veteran QBs like Cam Newton -- and possibly Andy Dalton -- to be had and Belichick is easily the GOAT of NFL HCs. I think the Bronocs, Chargers, Raiders, and Dolphins are the third tier -- teams that could conceivably make the playoffs if things go right and one or more of the better teams falter for some reason. The Bengals, Jets, and Jaguars are the bottom feeders. The Jets probably have the talent to be in the third tier, especially if Darnold comes into his own, but I think that their coaching is suspect. Even if Josh Allen has a MVP worthy season in 2020, the Bills as a team aren't good enough to be included with the Chiefs and Ravens. Especially on offense, the Bills simply don't have the depth of talent that the top two teams have. They also don't have a coaching staff good enough to match wits with Reid and Harbaugh and their assistants. That doesn't mean that they can't take the AFCE and make a real playoff run, but I think they have a ways to go to run with the big dogs in the AFC even if Allen develops into a real stud QB in 2020.

Mahomes started 1 game in which he went 22 for 35 (62.9%) for 284 yards for 0 TDs and 1 INT. His long pass was 51 yards. His Y/A was 8.1.

I agree that upgrading from Barkley would be a good idea. My biggest issue with the team -- especially the offense --- going into the draft: once past the starters, the quality of the skill players drops off a cliff. The Bills so lucked out in not suffering many long term injuries to key starters that it obscures how thin the team is beyond the starters. On offense, they have Allen, Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and Singletary but nobody else who's good enough to even pretend to take their places. They are pinning their hopes for TE on Knox who was ok as a rookie but beyond him, there's an abyss. The OL has better depth but the starters aren't necessarily all that good. More troubling is that they don't have a lot of young guys on offense to develop because they created holes in previous seasons and filled them with UDFAs. Realistically, the Bills don't have good enough depth to make a serious Super Bowl run this season unless by some miracle they once again stay almost injury free at key offensive and defensive positions. The last thing they need to do is draft a backup QB with an eye for trading him for a better pick at some point in the future.

I'm an advocate for the Bills using this draft to improve depth but in my mind that means drafting players on Day 2 who have at least enough talent to become starters in a year or two. On Day 3, they should be looking for guys who can at least be good role players. IMO RB, WR, and OL are all needs on offense, but I hope that they go BPA rather than reach because of need. Drafting a Day 3 or UDFA QB to be the backup to an established starter also enables a team to stretch their cap space. Veteran backup QBs can be very expensive, so QBs on rookie contracts are bargains as long as your QB stays healthy -- as the Steelers found out last season. I think at this point in their building stage, the Bills would be better served putting their draft resources into players who might develop enough to be contributors in the next year or two rather than in a backup QB. If they want to upgrade from Barkley, then they should look at other FA veterans. Back in the early Favre days, the salary cap wasn't the limiting issue it became toward the end of the 90s and since. There were also fewer teams and more rounds in the draft. Furthermore, the point that's being missed by the OP and some other posters is any semblance of "flipping QBs" can only happen if the team already has an established top tier QB who's playing well -- and is lucky enough to draft late round QBs who do shine when they get the opportunity. No team has ever figured out how to pick QB talent that well.

I think Slater is full of bull manure. It's Russ Brandon's "money ball" on steroids that's guaranteed to keep a team perpetually mired in mediocrity unless a fortuitous set of circumstances turn a 6th round pick into the GOAT. The point of playing NFL football is to win the Super Bowl, not amass "draft assets" or to increase team profits at the expense of the product on the field. The "theory" is not supported by the facts, especially in the case of the Packers. Brett Favre was going into his fifteenth NFL season when the Packers drafted Aaron Rodgers who unexpectedly dropped down to #24. Rodgers is going into his fifteenth NFL season. The last QB the Packers drafted was 5th rounder Brent Hundley in 2015. Since they drafted Rodgers, the only QB they drafted on Day 2 was Brian Brohm in Round 2 in 2008. How, exactly, is that "QB flipping"? The Patriots' supposed "QB flipping" is largely a myth. The Patriots under Belichick drafted QBs on Day 3 to be backups, including Tom Brady. Most of them were non-factors as most Day 3 QBs are. The myth is based on Brady's success and Matt Cassel's 2008 season when Brady was injured in the season opener, and Cassel led the Pats to 11-5. The Pats originally drafted Bledsoe to be their starter, which he was. It was Brady's success that made Bledsoe expendable. I believe that the Pats got a second round pick for Cassel. They may have also traded Brian Hoyer who was originally an UDFA. Brady was in his 11th NFL season when the Patriots started to draft QBs before Day 3: Ryan Mallett in Round 3 in 2011, Jimmy Garoppolo in Round 2 in 2014, Jacoby Brissett in Round 3 in 2016. All three were eventually traded, but they weren't drafted to be "flipped" but rather in hope of finding a successor to Brady. There were rumors at the time that Garoppolo was traded that Kraft interceded to placate Brady so the Patriots either had to trade him, sign him to starter money or let him walk. Moreover, the trades of Garoppolo and Brissett look like they may come back and bite the Pats in their collective arse. Brady's in Tampa, Garoppolo is the Niners starter, Brissett has proven to be a competent if unspectacular QB --- and the Pats have Brian Hoyer and some second year QB who's never played a regular season down as their QB tandem. That's why Slater didn't use the Patriots as an example of "QB flipping". It left them with bare cupboard and no cap space to acquire a better QB. The Bills need to give Josh Allen at least the upcoming season to prove himself. If he doesn't progress or regresses, then they should consider bringing in somebody with the potential to replace him just as Chicago has done by bringing in Foles when they have Trubisky. The team has legitimate needs to fill early in every draft, and maybe next year one of them will be a replacement for Allen, but not in this draft.

I believe you did, and I think I contributed to it. Anyhoo, I'm expanding my veggie garden this season because I want to keep all my veggies together for better pollination. Last season I had my zucchini in a separate space because I didn't have room for them and I had a hard time getting zucchini until late in the season. I generally grow tomatoes, bell peppers, sweet banana peppers, eggplant, and zucchini. I also have a small row of currants and am starting some blueberries.

I think 11-15 is fair for Beane. He was hired after the 2017 draft, so he can't be credited with White, Dawkins, and Milano but he also can't be penalized for trading up for Zay Jones. His 2018 draft will be judged by Josh Allen's success or failure, but Edmunds improved significantly in his sophomore year. Phillips also looks like a keeper from Beane's first draft. Oliver and Singletary from 2019 seem likely to make outstanding pros. Maybe Ford and Knox, too, but it's too early to really judge the 2019 class. Beane's moves with veterans is much less impressive, especially in 2017 and 2018. I'm willing to give him a mulligan for those two seasons because I think he didn't have full control of the roster until after Russ Brandon was fired. I think his role under Brandon was much like Doug Whaley's -- operating under severe budgetary limits and subservient to McDermott. I think 2019 showed him to be a very promising GM, not just with player personnel but also coaching and maybe scouting personnel also. The Bills replaced most of the offensive coaching staff, which many people don't remember. I think that maybe he upgraded scouting, too, as the 2019 veterans who were brought in tended to be significantly more productive than any of the vets that Beane had brought in previously. I think the trade for Diggs this year gives the Bills offense a much bigger shot in the arm than they were likely to get in 2020 from any rookie WR they could have drafted. Beane still needs to build a team with a good enough offense to win in the playoffs, which the 2020 team might be.

I don't get your and some other fans' blatant hatred -- and it is hatred -- for Taylor. Tyrod Taylor is what he is -- a modestly talented QB who simply reached his plateau as an NFL QB which is competent backup -- and that hardly makes him not "a bum". He was always a good team mate, even in trying circumstances. He never criticized the Bills for how they handled his situation even after he left the team (which wasn't his decison BTW). If you feel the need to be angry at somebody over the Bills poor QB situation in recent years, I suggest you consider the individuals who put Taylor in the position to fail miserably as a Bills starting QB through their personnel and coaching decisions in 2017 and 2018: Russ Brandon, Doug Whaley, Brandon Beane, Rex Ryan, and Sean McDermott. Taylor did not name himself the starter. He did not have a say in what offensives players the Bills did or did not draft or did or didn't re-sign any more than Josh Allen has.

I'll echo CBiscuit ... great post. It's not "hate" to to compare Allen to the QBs who should be his peers -- the QBs acknowledged to currently be "franchise QBs" -- and find him not on their level yet. He needs to play significantly better this season if he's going to lay claim to being a "franchise QB" -- and his cheerleaders need to stop making excuses for him if he doesn't. No Bills fan is wishing failure on Josh Allen. It's just that for some of us, wearing Bills-colored glasses and drinking Kool-Aid isn't part of our fandom, especially given the teams that the Bills have fielded for most of the past quarter century.

Numbers don't tell the full story. The QBs I mentioned, except for Lamar Jackson, all were/are considered top NFL QBs over their careers. They all had significant accomplishments either personally or team-wise as rookies/sophomores. While Josh Allen made significant improvement as a sophomore, neither his personal performance nor the team's performance qualify him to join the group I listed. More than anything else, I think he needs to improve his decision making. Great QBs consistently make the right decision, especially when the game is on the line. I think that Allen has proven himself to be a competent NFL QB, but he needs to step up significantly in order to be considered a "franchise QB". I think that Allen's ability to understand and process what he sees quickly and accurately is the real key to his success. I generally agree with this but it's simply untrue that the Bills "lost" Woods, Hogan, Gilmore, and Goodwin. "Lost" implies that the Bills were constrained by something -- like the salary cap -- that prevented them from re-signing these players. The Bills chose to not re-sign these players after their rookie contracts, primarily because not re-signing top DBs, WRs, and RBs and replacing them with cheaper rookie contract players was a Bills policy under Ralph Wilson and Russ Brandon. It's why the Bills frequently drafted these same positions high in the draft so frequently, and it was a big reason why the Bills simply spun their wheels for almost two decades. Pushing for the backup QB to replace the starter is a universal response of any fan base to crappy QB play on the part of the starter. If Bills fans seem more prone to it than other fan bases, it's because the Bills have had pretty crappy QB play for most of their history -- and especially since Jim Kelly retired.

Sorry to rain on your parade with facts, dude, but the Bills were NOT "moribund" before Allen became the starter since they went 9-7 in 2014, 8-8 in 2015, 7-9 in 2016, and 9-7 in 2017, including making the playoffs despite McDermott and Beane industriously dismantling the offense beginning in 2017. The Bills offense under Allen in 2019 was only marginally improved over the offenses the Bills fielded under Fitzpatrick, Orton and Taylor -- and the Bills have still not won a playoff game since 1995.

Excuse me but you'll notice I didn't include Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Robert Griffin or Andy Dalton, all QBs who took their teams to the playoffs as rookies. The QBs I mentioned were/are among the best QBs in the NFL and they all demonstrated that their quality early on. My point is that it's not "unrealistic" to expect outstanding QBs to show their stuff early on as several posters on this thread keep using as an excuse for Bills fans to not expect Allen to play better this season.

I think that your agenda in this thread is and has been to deflect any and all criticism of Allen or the Bills by continually accusing posters who raise issues with Allen or the Bills of essentially not being good Bills fans. It's getting to be as old as you claim you are. I rest my case about your agenda. You persist in blaming fans daring to criticize the Bills no matter how deep into the manure pile you have to dive to do it. FTR, Jack Kemp's career was entirely in the AFL when it was clearly a lesser league than the NFL. While Kemp was a three time AFL all star/pro bowl player, Daryl Lamonica, who sat behind Kemp for 4 seasons before he was traded to Oakland in 1967, became a 2 time AFL all star/pro bowler and All Pro, including in his very first year in Oakland. Lamonica then went on to be a 2 time NFL Pro Bowler. He was the Raiders' starting QB for 6 seasons and led them to 6 playoff seasons, including a Super Bowl appearance in 1967. It seems to me that maybe those fans that wanted Lamonica over Kemp were smarter than Ralph Wilson. Exactly this. I didn't like the Bills drafting Allen because IMO he wasn't a good enough prospect coming out of college to be worth what they gave up to get him. However, what really, really fries me is that after giving up a fortune to get Allen, the geniuses running the Bills -- that would be Beane and McDermott under Russ Brandon's -- and maybe Terry Pegula's -- "money ball" philosophy -- failed to support him. He was set up for failure in 2018 since the Bills didn't even bother to hire a bonafide QB coach for him, something for which there was absolutely no excuse. I think the firing of Russ Brandon in May 2018 resulted in Beane being freed from having to conform to strict "money ball" limits, and that was why he was able to successfully rebuild much of the offense in 2019 -- including replacing most of the offensive coaching staff and adding a real QB coach -- and at least give Allen a fighting chance to become a franchise QB rather than another failed QB. This season it's on Allen to prove himself.

What exactly makes a FO type inherently more reliable/trustworthy/truthful than a media type? Honesty and integrity depends upon the individual's personal values not the kind of job he/she holds -- or what level that job is.

The Bills' FO and HC's actions in 2018 are hardly "ancient history" that have no bearing on their evaluations going forward, especially if Allen and/or the team don't take their next steps this season or next. . Beane and McDermott have managed to make the playoffs twice in 3 seasons and they've actually won 10 games in a single season for the first time in this century, but they only have two poor losses in the wild card round to show for that. When -- if -- the Bills become a perennial playoff team and bonafide SB contender under Beane and McDermott with Allen as their QB then their repeated errors in 2018 will cease to matter. It's hardly "unrealistic expectations" for QBs who are something special to show that talent early. The Allen cheerleaders on this thread like to pretend that great QBs putting in outstanding performances very early in their careers is a recent phenomenon, but it's not. 1999 - Peyton Manning took the Colts to the AFCE division title as a sophomore. 2001 -Tom Brady took the Pats to a Lombardi in his first year as a starter. 2005 - Ben Roethlisberger took the Steelers to a Super Bowl win in his second season. 2008 - Matt Ryan took the Falcons to the playoffs as a rookie. 2012 -Andrew Luck led the Colts to the playoffs as a rookie and just about every year that he was healthy afterward. 2013 - Russell Wilson led the Seahawks to a Super Bowl win as a sophomore after taking them to the NFC title game as a rookie. 2017 - Carson Wentz was the leading candidate for MVP in his sophomore season before injury sidelined him. 2018 - Mahomes was the league MVP in his first year as a starter and took the Chiefs to the AFC Championship and Deshaun Watson led the Texans to the playoffs as a sophomore after playing in only 7 games as rookie because of injury. 2019 - Lamar Jackson, from the same class as Allen and taken 22 spots later at the very end of the first round, was an almost unanimous choice for MVP. Not all great/elite QBs find success in their first or second years in the league -- Brees and Rodgers are two that come to mind immediately -- but by the time they've had two or three years as starters, if they aren't top NFL QBs, they aren't likely to become so. Bortles, Winston, and Mariota are prime examples. We're seeing more young QBs excellent (or fail) earlier now simply because teams are more willing to play their young QBs rather than have them sit behind a starter for a season or two.

Totally agree. GMs and NFL personnel units don't have time to keep track of entire future draft classes, primarily because they have to take care of their immediate business -- which college players are likely to be available in the current draft -- and not worry about kids who may or may not be available -- or even be desirable when they're eligible -- in a future draft. Scouts may follow individual players and supply leads to personnel departments on promising freshmen and sophomores but GMs aren't going to plan their current draft boards based on who may or may not be in next year's draft.

I think the biggest problem with Cam right now is his health -- and the inability of teams to actually assess that -- rather than any personality issues.

That sort of makes Trent Edwards a Bills Drought Era "Pro Bowler". ?

Seriously? McGahee didn't suck when he was in Buffalo. Once again, you are confusing the fact that the Bills made a short-sighted personnel move in the 2003 draft with how the player actually performed. McGahee didn't play in 2003 because of injury, but he ran for 1128 yards in 2004, for 1247 in 2005, and 990 in 2006 in only 14 games. He then went on to run for 1207 yards in 2007 for the Ravens and 1199 yards in 2011 for the Broncos. He made the Pro Bowl in 2007 and 2011. I think that the Bills decided that they weren't going to re-sign Travis Henry, possibly because of his off-field issues, but more than likely because the Bills simply didn't re-sign their starting RBs after Polian left. I think that Thurman Thomas, Fred Jackson, and Sean McCoy may have been the only ones to get a second contract/extension from the Bills in the last 25 years or so. McGahee (2003) and Spiller (2010) were allowed to leave in FA. Lynch (2007) was traded for a fourth round pick. They were all first round picks, and McGahee and Lynch were top RBs in their day. IIRC that draft was pretty bad all around. I think that it may be rated as the worst or one of the very worst drafts since the merger -- by pundits who rate those things. I totally agree. Trading away Lynch, along with the trade that sent Jason Peters to the Eagles, have to be among the stupidest moves ever made by the Bills, and were symptomatic of the mismanagement of the team under Russ Brandon. Both Lynch and Peters went on to have All Pro careers with their new teams -- and likely will eventually end up in Canton. McDermott ran the 2017 draft with Whaley as the figurehead GM until he was fired the day after the draft.

Spiller was drafted much too high. He simply wasn't the kind of workhorse RB that should be drafted in the top ten picks. That makes him a "bad pick" but I wouldn't call him a bust.

McCargo had an injury (knee?) that he never recovered from. Why in the world would any team trade up to take a player coming off a serious injury? However, taking players with injury histories seems to have been a common thread during the years when Russ Brandon ran the show: Troupe and Koujandijo also had injury histories which likely compromised their NFL careers even before they were drafted.