SoTier

Name a QB in the last twenty years who has been a mediocre starter for three seasons and then morphed into a franchise QB. There isn't anybody. A team doesn't pay $18-20 million a year for a QB who's merely competent. Moreover, if a team has built a good team, they aren't going to waste it by hoping that some QB "falls to them". They go out and try to secure one. As the Eagles did when they traded up to get Wentz. As the Vikings did when they signed Kirk Cousins. As the Chiefs did when they traded up to get Mahomes even though they had a good QB worth $18-20 million already on the roster.

Actually, I think it says a lot more about changes taking place in the NFL than specifically those four teams since there were numerous other teams that also didn't extend their 2017 first rounders. Teams want to see their first rounders get up to speed quickly even if they're supposed to be "projects". If they can't produce as well as their teams think they should in their first three seasons, they aren't getting a big fifth year pay day. I think the Bears not extending Trubisky not only underscores how skeptical the team is of his ability to be a good NFL QB but is likely based on the recent past experience: young QBs who haven't shown themselves to be top QBs after three years of starting aren't likely to have an epiphany and become good/great QBs in their fourth or fifth years. It just doesn't happen. I can't think of a single mediocre three year starter who suddenly "saw the light" and became a top QB in his fourth or fifth season as a starter. In recent years, teams that extended fifth year options to mediocre first round QB wasted both time and money: Jax with Bortles (2014), TB with Winston (2015), and Tennessee with Mariota (2015). A decade ago it was common for teams to not only pick up fifth year options on first round QBs but also to extend them even if their performance wasn't all that good. Both Mark Sanchez and Ryan Tannehill benefited from that policy. I'm sure there were others. That's now morphed into only the outstanding young QBs getting paid big bucks early (Goff, Wentz, likely Mahomes and Watson soon) and the lesser one getting kicked to the curb. Teams have also become quicker to cut their losses with first round QBs who are easily identifiable busts and move on. Paxton Lynch and Josh Rosen are the quintessential examples of this. I think this trend narrows the window Josh Allen has to become a top NFL QB. Lots of Allen fans were willing to give Allen the full five years, but I don't think he gets that unless he absolutely improves this year so that he's among the top dozen or so QBs in the NFL.. Beane has taken away all of Allen's excuses by providing him with a good WR corps, decent protection, and now a pair of young RBs. Beane also drafted a potential replacement/bridge QB if Allen doesn't progress well enough and leaves after 2021.

I agree. Taylor wasn't a very good QB, but in 2017 he had nobody to throw to except for McCoy. The personnel moves in 2017 really soured me on McDermott and Beane, but I think that Beane, at least, has shown himself to be a good GM. I wrote in the thread from last week or the week before about where Beane ranked as a GM that I don't think Beane really had true GM power until some time after Russ Brandon was fired. I think that at least through the 2018 draft, Beane was functioning much as Doug Whaley did: a talent scout/manager subservient to the bean counters in the FO and the HC. The personnel moves made by the Bills in 2017-2018 -- with players and with coaches -- were reminiscent of personnel moves made by the Bills since Brandon took over the team in 2006. That changed in 2019 as the Bills brought in almost an entirely new offensive coaching staff for Daboll, including a well respected and experienced QB coach. They also brought in an entirely new OL and WR corps. This year is much more like 2019 than 2017 or 2018. The Bills traded for their first proven play maker on offense in forever, they made solid if unspectacular FA signings, and they had a solid draft that looks like they have an eye on the future with Day 3 picks like Fromm and Bass. That all suggests an upgraded scouting department along with upgraded coaches and players. For the first time since John Butler and AJ Smith departed for the West Coast, it seems like the Bills FO is focused on winning football games rather than just filling the stadium.

Well said. Some Bills fans forget that he was an All Pro for the Bills. Most NFL players are driven to excel, so I find the idea of a player simply turning off that drive just because he's gotten a big contract the least likely reason for a player's performance to slack off. What frequently happens is that players change teams to get bigger contracts and the new situations aren't as good for them as the ones they left. Sometimes coaching changes impact players' performance adversely, too. They bring in new systems that don't fit the players or their personalities don't mesh well with some incumbent players. Dareus blossomed under Marrone, but then along came Ryan who tried to remake the excellent defense that he inherited, followed shortly by McDermott who brought in his own style of D. We, as fans, assume that McDermott and Dareus didn't get along. Maybe that's true -- or maybe the Bills brass under the money-ball philosophy of Russ Brandon decided he wasn't playing well enough to justify his salary. For myself, I think that Dareus suffered (possibly still does) some emotional/mental issue that impacted his play. When somebody -- anybody not just a pro athlete -- goes from being really great at something for a long time -- since high school at least in the case of NFL players -- and then suddenly starts just "going through the motions", it suggests something's wrong, Personal tragedy -- which Dareus suffered in spades -- as well as bad domestic or employment situations can all wreak havoc on individuals' job performance.

Unfortunately, the Bills have given us so many frustrating years, it's hard to pick just one. The mid 1980s, 1990, and 2004 are all worthy. For me, though, 2009 represented the nadir of Bills existence because it was a season that was doomed back in October 2008 when Ralph Wilson verbally promised Dick Jauron an extension after the Bills started 5-1. The team went 2-8 the rest of the way but Wilson wouldn't reconsider. Before the 2009 season, Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters, angry over the Bills refusal to renegotiate his grossly unfair contract, decided to play it out and leave, was traded away to Philadelphia for a late first round pick (despite the fact that the Eagles had a much earlier pick in the first round). In the draft, the Bills then wasted their own first round pick, #9, on Aaron Maybin . Brandon and Jauron never replaced Peters. RT Langston Walker rebelled when Jauron tried to move him to LT and "retired". Aside from rookie C Eric Wood, the Bills had no NFL caliber OLers but Brandon's signing of FA Terrell Owens convinced naive Bills fans that the team was going to be "good" -- and the Bills sold 55-60k season tix for 2009. During the actual season, Trent Edwards led an offensive offense. Marshawn Lynch was sent to Jauron's "dog house" probably because of his own frustration -- like the time he made a 50 yard run to the 2 yard line and the team failed to score a TD. This was the year that featured a 3-6 loss to the crappy Browns team in which the Cleveland QB Derek Anderson threw for all of 23 yards. It took a drubbing by the Titans to finally get Wilson to fire Jauron.

I haven't read this entire thread so I don't if I'm echoing somebody else, but after reading the column, it seems like it's a parody of what many Pats' fans are telling themselves, especially on sports talk radio. This is The Onion-worthy.

The Bills simply weren't good enough on offense last season. They've taken steps to address that for 2020 but the only proven play maker they added was Diggs. Their new rookies are going to have a learning curve made steeper by the the lack of off season mini camps and practices, so they may not contribute as much as they might have in previous seasons. The real determinant of the 2020 Bills' success rests on how much Josh Allen improves. Beane went out and got him some additional OLers, RBs, and WRs, so he's surrounded with significantly more talent -- and depth -- than any Bills QB in this century. Now, he has to do his part if he can.

You are very naive. Nepotism in/among NFL ownership/FO staff/coaching staffs is almost the norm rather than the exception. The Packers are probably the only NFL franchise that doesn't have at least 1 of the owner's relatives on their payroll -- primarily because they're owned by stockholders. It's very common for HC's to hire family members. In fact, after Beane was hired, somebody posted a news article about how unusual it was that both McDermott and Beane didn't have "roots" -- ie, relatives -- in the NFL. Even among players, where one would think talent alone would count most, we're seeing more and more second and even third generation NFLers not to mention siblings and cousins, being drafted and finding success. This was especially notable in the recent draft.

Last season, with a healthy Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger, both the Colts and Steelers would have been playoff teams -- they were that good last season. Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl with the Broncos when he could barely throw because the team around him, especially the defense, was so good Don't assume that Rivers and Roethlisberger couldn't at least get their teams to the playoffs. I totally agree. The Bills won 1 game against a team with a winning record last season: their 14-7 win against the pre-Tannehill Titans. Of their 10 wins, 4 were by a TD or less. Of their 6 losses, 5 were by a TD or less with their single drubbing coming from the NFCE champion Eagles. If you look back at some of the previous Bills teams, they frequently managed to lose close games to better teams. They are certainly capable of winning 9-10 games a year and even winning the AFCE if the Pats dynasty is truly done. I'm not sure that they're good enough to win many playoff games. It seems to me that they are only incrementally better than some of the teams fielded by previous Bills regimes because they simply don't have enough game changing playmakers, especially on offense. Allen really needs to make a big step up this season.

Rumor also has it that Bob Kraft stepped in to stop Belichick trading Brady to keep Garoppolo. There's nothing wrong with my reading comprehension. The Bills' rise in the AFCE had no influence on Brady's decision. Since 2000 the Bills have only been, at best, a blip on the Pats' radar screen. The last time the Bills beat the Pats, Jacoby Brissett a rookie QB in his first NFL start when Brady was under suspension in 2016.

Y'know, it's great that the Bills are improved and are likely the favorite to take the AFCE in 2020 but so far they haven't won anything. They haven't played a down yet. Right now, they're sitting sort of where the Brownies were last year at this time: a team that made impressive moves the preceding season and followed it up with adding more talent for the coming season. It didn't work out for the Browns for a number of reasons in 2019, and the Bills could just as easily crap the bed in 2020 if something goes wrong -- like suffering a spate of serious injuries to key players. Agree. I think that the last time the Biils beat Brady and the Pats -- really drubbed them actually -- when the game actually mattered was in the season opener in 2003 when they won 31-0 in the Ralph. They sacked Brady twice and intercepted him 4 times, including a pick six by good ol' DLer Sam Adams. That was 16 seasons ago -- rumor had it that Lawyer Milloy, whom the Pats cut just before the start of the regular season, gave the Bills key info about their offense -- and the Bills have been the Pats' perennial whipping boys since.

I have been saying this about Allen vs Jackson since early last season when Jackson caught fire. Both Allen and Jackson improved significantly from how they played as rookies but Jackson improved far more, especially in the passing game, not just versus his own rookie season but versus the norm for NFL QBs. QBs that make the kind of improvement that Jackson made between their rookie and sophomore years don't suddenly collapse but rather continue to be top tier QBs. IMO, Jackson is the first 2018 first round QB who's solidly moved into the top tier of NFL QBs. The only QB from the group who's a bonafide bust at this time is Rosen. Whether he would have done better if he'd been drafted by a team other than the Cards doesn't matter at this point as he also failed in Miami. Mayfield, Darnold, and Allen are still at the point where they could go either way. Mayfield was disappointing last season but that may very well have been a coaching issue as with the entire team. As others have said, Darnold and Allen are about at the same level in their development. I think that Allen is in a better situation than Darnold -- because he now has better talent and better coaching -- however, so I have to see him step up to become a top tier NFL QB this season. The Pats still have Belichick, however, and as far as the Bills are concerned, he's had their number since his days as the Giants DC. The Bills' first SB loss -- Wide Right -- was orchestrated by Belichick when the much less talented Giants stymied the mighty Bills in a defensive battle. The last two decades have just been one horror story after another with Belichick in Foxborough. The Jets and the Fins have had significantly more success against Belichick than any of the Bills regimes have had, including the current one. I'm not trumpeting the death of the Pats under Belichick as a force in the AFCE until I actually see their corpse.

I don't get the hate for the Fromm pick. He was available, they liked him, and they certainly need an upgrade over Barkley. What's not to like? It's not like they traded up to get him when they have a future HOFer already.

From what I read about Fromm, he probably doesn't have much starting QB potential, but that's okay. Good backup QBs are valuable commodities in themselves, and Fromm would likely make a better bridge QB in the event that Allen failed than Barkley. I think it was a good move by the Bills to have an eye on the future ... "just in case". Moreover, having little chance of becoming a starter doesn't mean that it's impossible. The Seahawks took Wilson in the third round, the Cowboys found Romo among the UDFAs, and the Pats plucked Brady out of the sixth round. Kurt Warner also was an UDFA who got a break, so sometimes lighting does strike.

I think Gase is more of a problem for the Jets than their talent level. My feeling exactly. Keep in mind that in 2001, the Pats lost their franchise QB at the time, Drew Bledsoe, in the first game of the season. Belichick brought in an unknown 6th round QB from Michigan and won the Super Bowl with him at the end of that season ... and won 5 more SBs over the next two decades. In 2008, Brady was knocked out in the season opener but Belichick took the Pats to an 11-5 record with Matt Cassel. I would not be shocked if Belichick makes Stidham/Hoyer work.

This is a valid point, especially since there have been several first round QBs -- Bortles, Winston, and Mariota -- from recent drafts who haven't proven out. There's also the example of Trubisky regressing in his third season. The Bills also definitely need a backup QB who can come in and "hold down the fort" if Allen gets hurt as the Chiefs and Saints demonstrated -- and Barkley isn't that guy.

All teams factor in their needs when they draft players. When teams draft "for need", however, they rank their needs and decide what position they need most. They aren't willing to take advantage of a better player falling into their laps. If they decide that they need an edge rusher more than anything else, they draft Aaron Maybin, a lesser prospect than numerous other players available, in the first round so they're sure they have him. In that 2009 draft, if the Bills had drafted BPA rather than for need, they could have had Orakpo (66 sacks in a 10 year career including 3 Pro Bowl appearanaces) or one of the OTs (another position they needed desperately) and still picked up a decent DE in the second round as Connor Barwin who had a 10 year career and 56.5 sacks wasn't taken until almost the middle of that round. Maybin had a grand total of 6 sacks in a 4 year career. When teams have a BPA draft strategy, they are flexible in how they view their needs. Beane said as much when discussing why he took Jake Fromm in the fifth. If the Bills had drafted for need, they probably would have taken a DB or LB rather than a backup QB -- and maybe not drafted a kicker at all. If a team has what they consider an "immediate" need, they move before the draft to fill that through FA or trade -- as the Bills did by trading for Diggs which not only enabled them to be more flexible in the draft itself but also gave them a much better player for 2020 than they had any real hope of acquiring through the draft.

I think the Bills pretty much went BPA which I believe in. Having a decent roster means that the team doesn't have to "reach" to fill desperate needs on either side of the ball, consequently no 'WTF picks". Now, if the Bills can re-sign their top performers from recent drafts, they'll be on their way to doing what teams that consistently make the playoffs do -- grab talented players regardless of position rather than trying to fill holescreated by continually letting their top young starters leave in FA.

I'm not saying McDermott and company are something nasty you don't want to step in. I'm saying they aren't as good as Reid and Harbaugh and their staffs, who are among the very best in the entire NFL.

First round QBs who fail with their original teams -- and Winston not being re-signed by TB is certainly a failure no matter how many yards he racked up -- don't get a chance at a second gig as a starter elsewhere unless they're willing to swallow their pride and settle for being a backup at first. This is a smart move by both Winston and the Saints. If Payton and his staff can improve Winston's decision making, they may have found their successor to Brees -- and Winston may get to be the kind of QB he was drafted to be. I'm very concerned that Cam might land in NE, especially since the Pats didn't draft a QB. He doesn't seem to be Belichick's "type" but Belichick's only had 1 QB for the last 2 decades, so who's to say that he won't/can't adapt to a more mobile QB? Don't underestimate how much Belichick wants to win games. Moreover, maybe Cam could do better in an offense in which he's asked to sacrifice his body less.

Likely having more losses than last year's 2 doesn't lessen the Ravens' dominance in the AFC. The NFL is simply too competitive for any team to repeatedly lose only 2 games a season. The Ravens and Chiefs are the class of the AFC by a significant margin. They retained most of their outstanding talent from 2019 and have two of the best coaching staffs in the entire NFL. Barring catastrophic injuries, those two teams are making the playing offs. The Bills are in the second tier -- teams likely to make the playoffs -- along with the Patriots, Steelers, Browns, Titans, Colts and Texans. I'm not writing off the Pats at this point because there are still veteran QBs like Cam Newton -- and possibly Andy Dalton -- to be had and Belichick is easily the GOAT of NFL HCs. I think the Bronocs, Chargers, Raiders, and Dolphins are the third tier -- teams that could conceivably make the playoffs if things go right and one or more of the better teams falter for some reason. The Bengals, Jets, and Jaguars are the bottom feeders. The Jets probably have the talent to be in the third tier, especially if Darnold comes into his own, but I think that their coaching is suspect. Even if Josh Allen has a MVP worthy season in 2020, the Bills as a team aren't good enough to be included with the Chiefs and Ravens. Especially on offense, the Bills simply don't have the depth of talent that the top two teams have. They also don't have a coaching staff good enough to match wits with Reid and Harbaugh and their assistants. That doesn't mean that they can't take the AFCE and make a real playoff run, but I think they have a ways to go to run with the big dogs in the AFC even if Allen develops into a real stud QB in 2020.

Mahomes started 1 game in which he went 22 for 35 (62.9%) for 284 yards for 0 TDs and 1 INT. His long pass was 51 yards. His Y/A was 8.1.

I agree that upgrading from Barkley would be a good idea. My biggest issue with the team -- especially the offense --- going into the draft: once past the starters, the quality of the skill players drops off a cliff. The Bills so lucked out in not suffering many long term injuries to key starters that it obscures how thin the team is beyond the starters. On offense, they have Allen, Diggs, Brown, Beasley, and Singletary but nobody else who's good enough to even pretend to take their places. They are pinning their hopes for TE on Knox who was ok as a rookie but beyond him, there's an abyss. The OL has better depth but the starters aren't necessarily all that good. More troubling is that they don't have a lot of young guys on offense to develop because they created holes in previous seasons and filled them with UDFAs. Realistically, the Bills don't have good enough depth to make a serious Super Bowl run this season unless by some miracle they once again stay almost injury free at key offensive and defensive positions. The last thing they need to do is draft a backup QB with an eye for trading him for a better pick at some point in the future.

I'm an advocate for the Bills using this draft to improve depth but in my mind that means drafting players on Day 2 who have at least enough talent to become starters in a year or two. On Day 3, they should be looking for guys who can at least be good role players. IMO RB, WR, and OL are all needs on offense, but I hope that they go BPA rather than reach because of need. Drafting a Day 3 or UDFA QB to be the backup to an established starter also enables a team to stretch their cap space. Veteran backup QBs can be very expensive, so QBs on rookie contracts are bargains as long as your QB stays healthy -- as the Steelers found out last season. I think at this point in their building stage, the Bills would be better served putting their draft resources into players who might develop enough to be contributors in the next year or two rather than in a backup QB. If they want to upgrade from Barkley, then they should look at other FA veterans. Back in the early Favre days, the salary cap wasn't the limiting issue it became toward the end of the 90s and since. There were also fewer teams and more rounds in the draft. Furthermore, the point that's being missed by the OP and some other posters is any semblance of "flipping QBs" can only happen if the team already has an established top tier QB who's playing well -- and is lucky enough to draft late round QBs who do shine when they get the opportunity. No team has ever figured out how to pick QB talent that well.

I think Slater is full of bull manure. It's Russ Brandon's "money ball" on steroids that's guaranteed to keep a team perpetually mired in mediocrity unless a fortuitous set of circumstances turn a 6th round pick into the GOAT. The point of playing NFL football is to win the Super Bowl, not amass "draft assets" or to increase team profits at the expense of the product on the field. The "theory" is not supported by the facts, especially in the case of the Packers. Brett Favre was going into his fifteenth NFL season when the Packers drafted Aaron Rodgers who unexpectedly dropped down to #24. Rodgers is going into his fifteenth NFL season. The last QB the Packers drafted was 5th rounder Brent Hundley in 2015. Since they drafted Rodgers, the only QB they drafted on Day 2 was Brian Brohm in Round 2 in 2008. How, exactly, is that "QB flipping"? The Patriots' supposed "QB flipping" is largely a myth. The Patriots under Belichick drafted QBs on Day 3 to be backups, including Tom Brady. Most of them were non-factors as most Day 3 QBs are. The myth is based on Brady's success and Matt Cassel's 2008 season when Brady was injured in the season opener, and Cassel led the Pats to 11-5. The Pats originally drafted Bledsoe to be their starter, which he was. It was Brady's success that made Bledsoe expendable. I believe that the Pats got a second round pick for Cassel. They may have also traded Brian Hoyer who was originally an UDFA. Brady was in his 11th NFL season when the Patriots started to draft QBs before Day 3: Ryan Mallett in Round 3 in 2011, Jimmy Garoppolo in Round 2 in 2014, Jacoby Brissett in Round 3 in 2016. All three were eventually traded, but they weren't drafted to be "flipped" but rather in hope of finding a successor to Brady. There were rumors at the time that Garoppolo was traded that Kraft interceded to placate Brady so the Patriots either had to trade him, sign him to starter money or let him walk. Moreover, the trades of Garoppolo and Brissett look like they may come back and bite the Pats in their collective arse. Brady's in Tampa, Garoppolo is the Niners starter, Brissett has proven to be a competent if unspectacular QB --- and the Pats have Brian Hoyer and some second year QB who's never played a regular season down as their QB tandem. That's why Slater didn't use the Patriots as an example of "QB flipping". It left them with bare cupboard and no cap space to acquire a better QB. The Bills need to give Josh Allen at least the upcoming season to prove himself. If he doesn't progress or regresses, then they should consider bringing in somebody with the potential to replace him just as Chicago has done by bringing in Foles when they have Trubisky. The team has legitimate needs to fill early in every draft, and maybe next year one of them will be a replacement for Allen, but not in this draft.