Shaw66

This is well said. As I've said, I want to see Mahomes and Watson continue. I'll give Flacco as an example. He wasn't a star like Mahomes, but he looked like a long time winning starting QB when he was young. He nevergrew, the league changed, and he became a castoff. I just don't trust short bodies of work as absolute evidence of greatness. Continual arc of improvement was what I was talking about. That's what you need to see. And I agree that if the guy hasn't shown consistent improvement and isn't looking like a keeper by the end of three seasons, hardas it is, you probably have to move on. Problem is when you have a coaching change in the middle. That's what complicates the Mariota decision.

I hadn't seen this for a couple of days. This is excellent. What you sort of say is if you don't have a dominant group of linemen, adding another to the jumbo package doesn't make your running blocking any better - you've just added one more guy who isn't dominant. Then, by bunching them, you allow the defense to bunch, too, which means that your already not dominant line now has to block the entire defense. I think what you say is correct - when you're not dominant you have to spread out and make the defense defend the entire field. Yes, that's a bit risky, but it plays into the Bills' offensive strength - the crossing routes, Josh rolling out, etc. Thanks for posting.

That's really interesting. Thanks.

Thanks. I love FItz, and that's a great story. Still, I believe he succeeded that day because he was doing what he knew how to do, and what he knew how to do worked well against Houston's defense. Houston plays a different defense, Fitz doesn't have the legendary day. If Fitz had a better arm, he'd have been an absolute star, because as Gailey first identified about him and we've seen repeatedly, he has great football smarts. His body just can't deliver the throws that the his brain, and the NFL, demands. Why do I love Fitz? Well, two examples. Press conference early in his stay in Buffalo. Asked what he was going to do if the NFL hadn't called. I would have gone to Wall Street and been an investment banker. Are you going to Wall Street when you retire? Hell, no. I'm going to Arizona and drink beer. Second example: His performance at that roast for Fred Jackson or Eric Wood. Hysterical.

Right. And one more thing. Like Fitzpatrick's first game, doing once is a function of facing a defense he understands. To be an success he has to learn to recognize and understand all defenses, and that is very difficult and takes time.

Well, I marvel at Watson and Mahomes, BUT ... I'll stick by what I said. Wentz was GREAT his first year. Goff was INCREDIBLE. Now we're scratching our heads a bit. I think the league catches up with guys who flash early, and it's only the great ones who keep doing it year after year. Look at all the flash-in-the-pan DEs. They all look like Bruce Smith for a year or two, and then, not so much. Playing QB in the NFL is incredibly difficult, and the fact that Watson and Mahomes are having success against 2019 defenses doesn't mean they will have what it takes against 2024 defenses. Yes, some of the great ones are great from the beginning and have sustained success, but a lot of guys are great for a year or two or three and then come back to the pack. I'll wait.

That doesn't make sense. You have to build an offense that defenses can't stop. I think, for example, it doesn't make sense for the Browns to structure their offense to what Mayfirld does well. Arizona and Baltimore? Check back in two years and tell me that Murtay is winning and Jackson is still doing it. Quarterbacks succeed by beating what defenses do, not by being themselves.

I read the article and found some of it interesting and insightful. However, I don't think it answered the question - how do teams actually make the judgment. I think I have some sense of how teams, or at least McD and Beane, are doing it. I think teams define the behaviors they want to see in a franchise QB. They are behaviors like pocket presence, scrambling ability, accuracy, decision making, reading defenses, leadership, adjusting in game, depth of understanding of defenses. There are a whole lot of things like that. McD has a list of them, I'm sure. What McBeane do is evaluate these things continually, evaluate them to see if their QB is getting better at them regularly. That's the mantra - continuous improvement. When you're a coach or a GM you know you have a problem with your young QB when he stops getting better at something, and where he's stopped isn't good enough. So you had a Jay Cutler who clearly stopped getting better at his decision making before he was a quality field general. It was obvious after two or three years in the league. When you see that, you have to give up and move on. In Trubisky's case, I'd be worried, because he doesn't seem to be continuing to improve. In Allen's case, I"m happy. I think he's getting better in many phases, but I admit I don't see and evaluate all the things McD sees and evaluates. I've thought from the beginning that people were getting sucked in by Goff and Mayfield and even Mahomes and Watson. I do not believe that ANY rookie, second or third year QB knows enough to have demonstrated that he will be a long-term success in the NFL. Any of Goff, Mayfield, Mahomes and Watson could be a Hall of Famer, but ANY of them could still turn out to just okay. It's a long process, and they're all on the path with Allen. Whether any of them stays on the path is, as far as I'm concerned, still an open question. So how do teams know what to do about Trubisky or Goff or whomever? I think they ask themselves whether he's continuing to improve at the many aspects of quarterbacking. If the answer is yes, keep him. If the answer is clearly no, move on. If it's yes with respect to some aspects and no with respect to others, you think very hard about those skills where his development seems to have stalled and decide whether you can live with it or get him going again.

The Bills didn't want to throw it a lot, either. The Bills were run heavy, but it's hard to argue with running a lot when Singletary is getting nearly 5 yards a pop. Gore really wasn't used all that much except on the goal line, which was a modest disaster. The call I didn't like was McKenzie down on the goal line. Go up the field, not horizontally. I don't worry about play calling. I think it's an overrated concept. If you're in a play that doesn't work against a defense, the QB is supposed to check out of it. If it looks okay, then you run it and execute it.

The Bills adjusted, the Redskins didn't answer, good move. It was pretty clear in the first half the Redskins didn't want to put the game in that wind in Haskins' hands, especially because the Bills D is so hard to read. The Bills went 8 in the box and the Redskins still didn't want Haskins flinging it.

Well they should be on the same level so far as the caliber of their defense. The Bills and Pats have played the same teams and put up the same defensive numbers; Belichick is praised as a genius and no one even mentions the Bills. I can make the arguments against the Bills as well as you, but when the stats are so compelling, the Bills should at least be in the conversation among rational people. The sports media want to be respected as journalists, but they're just a big hype machine.

Fair questions. I don't get any info from the national media. I get it here, and follow links. And I don't really care about the coverage all that much. What is most important is that it tells me not to believe what they tell us about the teams they DO talk about. For example, I mentioned this earlier in the thread and no one has talked about it. There have been stories in recent weeks (not after the Ravens game) about the Patriots having the best defense of all time. People in the national media were actually saying that. The Patriots have played the same teams the Bills have, the Bills defense has done as well against those teams as the Pats have, so logic would say that the Bills have one of the best defenses of all time, too. No one believes that about the Bills (I don't either), but the national media was actually selling it about the Patriots. Simply put, the quality of the crap the national media give us about pro football is crappy. Crappy crap. It's just talk, and it has very little to do with reality. They talk about Brady like he's God, and his passer rating 1s 18th in the league, one ahead of Gardiner Minshew. There's simply no objectivity at all in the reporting, and yet people watch it and believe it.

Nice comments. Thanks. From what McD said and what I saw, I think that Edmunds is doing what he's told, and that plays into his weakness instead of his strengths. He's attacking gaps aggressively, and once he's engaged, he's largely neutralize. He needs to move freely, so he can flow to the point of attack. Can't do that all the time, of course, or he's just another safety, but aggressively attacking the line really limits his effectiveness. Allen's making a LOT of plays. He knows the progressions, he sees the openings, and he is delivering the ball pretty accurately. The wind really didn't seem to bother him much. That one run by Singletary was astounding. Hit the hole, stopped and stepped left to avoid a tackler, burst forward and left a second tackler grabbing at air. Ten or 11 yards that he simply created. And he bounced the touchdown run outside very nicely. Lots to like, lots to get better.

The Patriots pass defense has a 48 passer rating. Allen had a 24 rating against them. Take away that game, against the best pass defense in the league, and Allen's passer rating is 92. That is definitely starter caliber. Unless Tom Brady (93) isn't starter quality.

Six of the Patriots 9 games have been against the same teams the Bills have played. The Bills put up the same numbers defensively against those teams as the Pats did, the Bills shut down the high flying Pats offense, and the Pats were being hailed, until last night, as perhaps the best defense in the history of football. How can the Bills get the same results as the Pats against the same teams and not even be mentioned?

That's really amazing. I heard today that beginning with Andy Dalton in 2011, the Browns are 0-5 in games against QBs starting their first NFL game.

Of course they favor the large markets. They get more viewers out of large markets than small markets, they sell more jerseys and caps and beer in large markets. So they cover the large markets. Earlier today I was looking at ESPN.com's football home page. Big Saquon Barkley story. Really? Jets on there. It's obvious. I agree with others who say it's okay if we keep sneaking up on people. The Bills are learning how to play well in the NFL. Learning week by week. If they learn fast enough, they'll make noise soon.

I just took a look at the stats. Bills are 6-2, as we all know. Bills are 3rd best in yards per game defense, behind the Pats and 49ers, and 3rd best in points per game defense, behind the 49ers and Pats, and NO ONE is talking about the Bills. Small market team, no sex appeal, no big-name stars, nothing that makes the Bills interesting except that their defense is great and they're winning. That's not enough to make them worth covering, I guess. If they beat the Browns, they're a game behind the Pats in the division, and no one is interested

I can't say I'm optimistic. 9-7 still looks like a realistic outcome. Not what we're hoping for, but 9-7 is borderline playoffs, and borderline playoffs is about as good as the Bills have looked.

Good point about Jones. The two Brown plays, the one he missed and the nice catch on the sideline, were right in front of me, looking down from the upper deck. The one he missed was placed perfectly. I mean, EXACTLY where the receiver wants the ball to be. I saw the throw and was amazed how flat it was - there was no loft on it at all. I don't recall ever seeing a QB throw a pass that far that flat. I think some of it was adrenalin - he had just escaped, he saw Brown and he wanted to get it out of his hands. Brown got his hands up, but there was something about it that looked like he needed a split second more to get ready for it. It just looked like the ball arrived before he expected it. He got his hands up, but his fingers weren't quite ready, and then the ball was gone. It wasn't one of those plays where he looked away, or was afraid he'd get hit, or anything. It just looked like it surprised him. Then, a few minutes later, there was the play on the sideline. You know Brown was thinking "I'm NOT going to miss this one." The second one didn't have the same velocity, but it was a tougher catch. Brown's a pro.

Nice stuff, Virgil. I was at the game. That punt definitely was a shank. The moment it came off his foot/leg it was a disaster. My view of Bojo is that he has a big leg and no technique. He doesn't have any of the finer skills that Moorman had and that many current punters have. For example, I didn't see a replay, but I wouldn't be surprised if he shanked that punt because the ball was windblown as he dropped it. That is, he was taking his usual big swing at the ball with his usual drop, and with that big swing he couldn't adjust as the ball moved. That's completely a guess. But if that's what happened, it shouldn't. He needs a shorter drop and a shorter leg swing. And he needs to keep the kick low - get it up into the wind and it's going to come back to you. And the punt coverage has to adjust to the fact that there will be less hang time but probably more roll. Bojo seems like he just wails away each time and hopes for the best. Allen was really good. He just didn't throw a lot. He managed pretty well in the wind.

Yup, Brown will tell you he has to make that catch, and he does, but I learned a long time ago, listening to receivers in their first year playing with Elway, that it was real adjustment. The ball arrives faster than any ball you've ever seen, so you aren't quite ready when it arrives, and it goes through your hands faster, so you have less time to react to it. Receivers said that it often took most of a season to adjust to it. On that play, it was remarkable how fast the ball got to Brown. Allen didn't really get set, he was hurried and he wanted to unload it. The pass flew practically on a straight line, and it looked to me like Brown was ready for it. You can say Brown's a #1 NFL receiver, but there are practically no NFL #1 receivers who have fastballs coming in like that. Allen has whistled some past Beasley too. Beasley talked about it earlier this year, trying to get Allen to take a little off balls that didn't need to be shot out of a cannon. We saw it on the TD pass to Beasley on Sunday. I could almost hear Allen saying to himself "no need for mustard, just float it in there."

The Bills had another grind-it-out win against an underperforming team Sunday, stopping the Redskins at New Era Field, 24-9. There was what’s become the typical collection of encouraging plays and puzzling shortcomings, but in the end the Bills had enough to win comfortably. In these wins, the Bills are more in control of the game than the score indicates, which is little comfort to fans. A one-score game in the third quarter is still a one-score game, even if, in retrospect, it seems clear that the Bills were in charge. No one is comfortable waiting for Tre’Davious White to make his play of the game and seal the victory. Put another way, week after week it becomes clearer that the Bills are not a dominant team. They’re a team that goes about its business seriously, works hard, comes ready to play and beats teams that can’t or don’t bring the same level of commitment to the field. They understand well that it’s a long game and in the course of the game some things are going to go badly. They work hard to keep those bad things from happening, but their real strength is in how they respond to adversity. And so it was on Sunday, when Adrian Peterson was being Adrian Peterson, putting up a Hall of Fame afternoon, at least for a half. The Bills were in charge on the scoreboard, 17-6, but the fans were restless. The Bills were ugly in short yardage in the red zone, settling for a long field goal after being first and goal from the two and barely sneaking into the end zone on fourth down after failing three times from the one. In fact, the Bills were in charge. At the half, Washington hadn’t found the end zone and wouldn’t for the rest of the day. It was classic bend-don’t-break defense. Statistically, many of Washington’s numbers were similar to the Bills, but the Bills wouldn’t let Washington finish. The Bills got the critical third-down conversions and Washington didn’t (6 of 12 for the Bills, 2 for 11 for the Redskins). Buffalo finished in the red zone and Washington didn’t (3 for 4 vs. 0 for 2). Wins or not, these games show off the those areas where the Bills just aren’t good enough yet to be a premier team. The offensive line, for one. In the off-season, the Bills signed a collection of marginal NFL linemen, hoping to put together a line that would outperform the 2018 version. That’s what the Bills got – some journeymen who were better than a pretty bad 2018 starting line, but who are still journeymen. Cody Ford hasn’t stepped up, Dion Dawkins isn’t dominant, and so the Bills struggle on the line. Sunday they failed miserably in short yardage. When asked about it after the game, Sean McDermott essentially said “well, I’ll have to look at the film, but I don’t have to look at the film to know that no one was moving his man off the ball.” Wide receiver, for another. After last week’s game, I said the Bills need better playmakers on offense, including more speed. This week, Duke Williams went to the sidelines and the Bills inserted their speed into the lineup, with McKenzie, Foster and Roberts getting much more playing time. It didn’t help much. Brown, Singletary, Knox and Beasley still were the pass catchers; the speed boys didn’t contribute much. And the pass rush, for another. The Bills recorded four sacks against the Redskins and got occasional good pressure, but the pass rush wasn’t enough to make the rookie uncomfortable in his first start . He was able to stand in the pocket and complete plenty of passes. One of the sacks was White’s. It was a crucial play emotionally for the Bills. They continued to nurse their one-score lead, unable to manage a lot of offense for themselves. Washington had the ball deep in their own end, and Bills could use a stop for field position and a chance to put up a field goal to create some breathing room on the scoreboard. On third and ten, White came off the corner, stayed under control as Haskins tried to escape, and made the tackle, forcing the punt. Energized, the Bills offense drove for the touchdown that essentially ended the game. White’s sack was a good example of why the Bills’ defense is so good. Their defensive style isn’t what I’d call aggressive, but they aren’t afraid to change things up. The safeties are in the offensive backfield often, and the Bills will rush a corner off the slot occasionally, but I don’t recall a true corner blitz all season. The Redskins had no reason to have prepared for that rush, and the surprise element is what made it so effective, along with White’s flawless execution of the play. Devin Singletary sparkled once again. Having been elevated to the starting role, he gave the Bills exactly what they’d hoped for: a big play threat who repeatedly sparked drives with his elusiveness and quickness. The screen pass was perfectly executed and caught Washington off guard. Singletary has what Gore lacks – the ability to create something when it appears there’s nothing there. It was surprising that the Bills had the lead with the half that Adrian Peterson had. He was unstoppable, plowing into the line and staying upright until something opened up for him. It wasn’t classic Peterson from earlier in his career, but his strength was always underrated. It was on display Sunday, play after play. Once Levi Wallace had Peterson in his sights for a big loss. They were both upright, face-to-face, with Wallace wrapping his arms around Peterson. Peterson broke free for a short gain. A fan behind me yelled “HE’S GOTTA MAKE THAT TACKLE!!!” Well, yes but that’s not just any running back. That’s Adrian Peterson, and he’s been doing exactly that for a long time. There’s no shame in being beaten by Adrian Peterson. Tremaine Edmunds was nowhere to be seen on many of Peterson’s first-half runs. He was either trapped in the wrong gap or unable to get off one-on-one blocks, left to try to chase down Peterson from behind. McDermott said after the game that the Bills needed to adjust their run fits to respond to Washington’s running game, and it worked. Edmunds seemed to become more of a factor in the second half, and Peterson was shut down. Edmund’s problems in the run game notwithstanding, it’s a thing of beauty to watch him close on running backs and receivers. His combination of size and speed is awesome, and although his isn’t a big hitter, he’s become a solid tackler. Impressive dude. Jordan Phillips was promoted to the starting lineup Sunday, and he didn’t disappoint. Besides being cheerleader No. 1, Phillips was a disruptive force on multiple plays. In an injury-conscious league, big hits don’t happen too often any more. His ferocious sack of Haskins electrified the crowd. And there was Josh Allen. I’ve said Allen will be a star in the NFL, and I continue to believe it. The big name draft choices from 2018 are struggling, and Lamar Jackson is outplaying them all, but of the top four, Allen is the only one who seems to be steadily improving and showing signs that he will be elite. Allen keeps getting better in the pocket, hanging in until he has to move, then moving enough to give him the time to make a quality throw. His escape and throw through Brown’s hands was almost magical; the ball got on Brown so quickly that he couldn’t handle it. Brown made amends with a great catch on the sideline a few minutes later on another superb Allen throw. The touchdown to Beasley was beautifully executed, with Allen in complete control. The back shoulder throw to Brown up the left sideline was a gem, too. Allen didn’t throw a lot, but when given the opportunity, he looked like a winner. Ball security obviously is a concern with Allen, as are a half dozen other issues that his coaches see but aren’t obvious to me. Allen is working and learning, and we continue to see the improvement. It was a solid win against a struggling team. Now the schedule gets tougher, and we will see just how well the Bills can play. The Browns won’t be easy, and the Ravens, Cowboys, Steelers, and Patriots are waiting down the road. It’s been fun so far, and we’ll see what the next month brings. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Great story. Love ot.

I have a lot of confidence in the DVOA. If it says 25, then the Bills might be 20, but not 15 or 10. It's a well done stat, generally. Early in the season it is largely driven by their subjective view of teams, so it's less useful then. I think at this time it still has some of that subjectivity to it, but it's based largely on this year's performance. Bills are improving, but they have plenty more to work on.