Royale with Cheese

More data.... https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-playoffs-how-much-does-home-field-advantage-help-postseason "Over the past four years, half of the No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Super Bowl, but only one — the 2022 Chiefs — has actually won, so there's an expectation of the unexpected. The last four Super Bowl champions included three teams not expected to make it past the divisional round based on seeding. Last year's Chiefs were a 3 seed, the 2021 Rams were a 4 seed, and the 2020 Bucs won as a 5 seed, winning three road games to get to the Super Bowl. How big an advantage is home field in general? Less than you might expect. This past season, over 272 games, home teams went 145-127, which works out to a .533 winning percentage, about the same as a 9-8 team over the course of a full season. That advantage was down slightly from 2023, when NFL home teams went 151-121, good for a .555 win percentage, much like a 5-4 record. In 2023, all eight NFL divisions had at least a .500 record at home, but this season, the AFC South went 14-18 at home, the NFC South went 15-21, and three other divisions were .500 at home. So in the 2024 NFL season, only three of eight divisions collectively had winning records at home."

Come on. Everyone stacks the box against Henry and you're criticizing the Bills for it.

Here are Derrick Henry's games vs the Bills. We have had success stopping him. He's had two monster games and 4 sub par games. Playoff game was 16 for 84 which is a decent game but not a monster game. The pass defense is the concern in this game.

Guess who is taking Knox's place next year. I wonder if he takes away snaps from Kincaid in short yardage and goaline situations? I would bet he would have pushed Allen with ease on the tush push in the AFCCG.

I wasn't there.

It's almost 50/50 now and has been getting closer in the last 6 seasons. How often does the home team win in the NFL? On average, NFL home teams win just over half their games, but the advantage isn’t as strong as it used to be. Historically, from the 1970s through the early 2010s, home teams won close to 57–60% of the time. Over the past few seasons, however, that edge has diminished, and since 2019 the win rate for home teams has hovered around 52–53%. That’s only a slight edge above random chance, meaning that while playing at home still provides some benefit, it’s no longer the near-automatic bump that bettors could count on in past decades. For handicapping, this decline matters. Oddsmakers once routinely gave home teams a standard three-point edge in the spread, but in today’s market that figure has been cut in half, closer to 1.5 points. Across the league the numbers show that betting purely on the home team is no longer profitable. Successful bettors now weigh matchup-specific factors like travel distance, rest days, injuries, and team quality far more heavily than the simple fact of where the game is played. https://www.covers.com/nfl/home-field-advantage#:~:text=On average%2C NFL home teams,where the game is played.

I think he feels the pressure which is why we brought on two more defensive assistants who have run different types of defenses. He understands the defense under him has been well underperforming several times. He needs new minds to help put together better game plans.

Chevy Chase's best movie is Hot Tub Time Machine.

So potentially our starting CB’s against one of the elite offenses in the NFL will be Dorian Strong, a rookie and Jamarcus Ingram?

Mice job Police! I wonder how big his rat sheet is? He's cheesing too while being handcuffed lol.

So you're saying we should extend him another 3 years?

I can see Knox doing a major restructuring or big cut to stay. That would be the only way. Jordan Poyer next?

For the Vikings.

Lower leg sounds like a general ankle sprain.

It's very close to what he did in KC. The year they won the AFCW, Cassel threw 27 TD/7 INT's. That was his best TD/INT ratio of his career. Most TD's of his career in one season. Highest QB rating of his career.

The UFC was the first one I believe to really start cracking down on this. It's a good move.

Yeah but you can expect that type of production from a rookie and missed multiple games with a wrist fracture. If Coleman doesn't increase production, then he's not at the production you want from a 2nd year WR.

Todd Haley won the AFCW with Matt Cassel as his starting QB. Belicheck avoided a blowout because Tom Brady. The final 4 drives on the Falcons game, Brady led them to 4 straight scoring drives. Belicheck is 84-104 without Brady. I don't think Pete Carroll is a top 5 coach anymore but he's still effective. Belicheck isn't.

Ed Oliver next?

I think we actually agree. I think Davis has value as a #4 or #5 WR. I thought the 2022 Divisional game was his breakout too. But he was basically phased out of the offense in his last season and my belief is the coaching staff didn't trust him on a regular basis anymore....which is why I don't believe they made an attempt to sign him.

That is something we would look to improve right? Davis is a 6 year vet on a practice squad signed a week before the start of the season….he isn’t as high valued in the league that some members on this board think he is.

Fair point on the others. However, Im not going to look at Jameson’s and Tee’s game logs but I don’t think its anywhere near as inconsistent as Gabe. In the last 3 seasons, Gabe has 20 games with 2 catches or less. 7 of those he had zero. He is unproductive way too many times.

I don’t believe I said he is a scrub. I think he has value but at the #4 spot. Jameson missed majority of his rookie year due to injury and then was suspended in the early part of his second year. The issue with Davis is he is a non factor way too many times….look at his game logs. Like you said, its spread inconsistently throughout the season….but its very top heavy loaded. A few really, really good games to skew his overall numbers.

In 7 playoff games, Gabe Davis averages 55 yards and 3 catches. Just under 50% of his offensive production was in one game. 2 out of his last 3 playoff games….zero burger.

A lot of #4 WR have unreliable hands, average about 35 receptions a year on average and that’s what Gabe is…. Someone broke down Gabes 2022 “monster” season of 800+ yards….roughly 50% of his yardage came in 4 games. FYI, he had more games with under 20 yards than he had over 100 yards receiving. 7 games under 40 yards receiving. He was a non factor the majority of the season.