transplantbillsfan
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Posts posted by transplantbillsfan
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Passes that aren't likely to be intercepted are Tyrods specialty...mainly because he doesn't make tough throws in traffic or anticipate his receivers. It's get open, and I'll throw it to you.
I'm glad that you are still trying here, but everyone knows that Tyrods low INT's are due to his penchant for not attempting the tougher throws. It has hurt this team as much as it's helped IMO.
He needs to do better...plain and simple.
First of all, why do you say "I'm glad that you are still trying" ...?
I'm just relaying Fahey's findings.
And yeah, I think you're right to a degree; consistently making those tough throws in traffic and the anticipation throws are things that Taylor needs to work to do more consistently. Fahey acknowledges this, himself.
But regarding Taylor's 2016 season, while Fahey says there was certainly bad with Taylor, "the good severely overshadowed the bad."
But I think his last words in Taylor's chapter ultimately sum up his feelings:
"You could ignore all the context. You could just point to the missed throws. It'd be about as rational as throwing out a four-course meal because your fork was bent. A four-course meal that you ordered for a fast food price."
I wish someone other than Fahey would go through the film independently and come up with their own numbers. It would make the analysis stronger as a whole if 2 separate people posted what they found. As it stands it's good data to have though. It won't convince anyone because of its subjectivity but it is good data.
I agree. I wish more than just Fahey did this. I think this is why PFF can be so invaluable.
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What do all the ACCURACY categories mean? How is he evaluating "accuracy." Many fans complain that Tyrod doesn't throw the ball into tight windows, doesn't lead receivers well, etc. I've never been sure they're right, but there certainly are plenty of replays supporting the claim. I also don't trust fan analysis on a category like that. So how is Fahey measuring accuracy?
Is he third best or third worst in interceptable passes?
Finally, avoidable sacks isn't a useful number on its own. Taylor has a lot of sacks because he scrambles and he tries to keep pass plays alive. If he stays behind the line of scrimmage and gets sacked instead of giving up on the play and gaining 1 yard, yes it's an avoidable sack, but it might have been the right decision, because keeping the play alive may result, on average, in gains instead of losses. Plus, some of his avoidable sacks are plays where Taylor was trying to escape and got caught when he could have thrown the ball away. I want Taylor to try to escape in those situations, because when he does escape he often runs for a first down or more. In other words, the important stat is net yards in sack situations. That is, look at all the plays where the QB should be sacked and net all the yards lost to sacks, yards gained because the QB escaped and completed a pass and yards gain because the QB ran. If my QB has a high net, I don't care that he took more sacks than some guy who threw the ball away every time. I'd bet that if someone generated THAT stat, Taylor would be way up in the rankings. And, by the way, in doing that ranking, you have to determine avoidability objectively. That is, when the tackler is running at x miles an hour, he's 4 yards from the QB and the QB has Y room to maneuver, how many times does he avoid the sack? I guarantee you Taylor is way up on that list. That is, what's avoidable can't vary because the nature of the QB. In one sense, Eli has more or less no avoidable sacks, because he just isn't able to avoid any.
Shaw, Fahey explains everything in good detail, but he categorizes accuracy % along with failed receptions and created receptions.
So, essentially, passes by Taylor that fall in the "failed receptions" category qualify positively towards accuracy % while "created receptions" qualify negatively towards accuracy %.
In other words, accuracy % is very simply how accurate the pass is. An accurate pass by a QB that results in an incompletion because a defender makes an exceptional play on the ball would qualify positively towards accuracy %.
Taylor is the 3rd best in the NFL in interceptable pass %, according to Fahey.
He also breaks avoidable sacks into 3 categories : missed read, ran into sack, and process in the pocket
He breaks unavoidable sacks into 4 categories: beaten blocker, blown assignment, coverage, botched snap
According to Fahey, 4 of Taylor's 7 avoidable sacks were "missed reads" and 3 were "ran into sack."
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Interesting data, but I'm not sure I trust it. Taylor holds the ball longer than any other QB in the league.
As for the other QB's, I'm sure they do have an issue with either progression speed or pocket awareness. They have other strengths that make up for it - just like Taylor does.
If you don't trust the data, why don't you just go through and rewatch the 39 sacks as objectively as you can and categorize them yourself?
I understand skepticism of subjectivity. But if you can use the same subjective criteria to evaluate QBs across the NFL comparatively and come up with numbers using a generally consistent evaluation criteria, it'd be pretty valuable, albeit not absolutely perfect. Considering Fahey's reputation and the fact that he makes his living doing this, I think it's fair to give him the benefit of the doubt that he's doing this.
And by the way, I feel like some folks think Fahey is a Taylor homer, but this catalogue is almost 200 pages and outside of Taylor's own chapter and the actual data itself, he doesn't even mention Taylor in the introductory chapters.
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Are you referring to the Pro Bowl? Is that really your measuring stick? How many people had to decline going for him to make the Pro Bowl? A game that has turned into a complete joke and waste of time.
Like I have said in the past, Tyrod making the Pro Bowl is the equivalent of him being names prom king at an all girls school.
This just sidesteps the point he was making that saying Taylor isn't an NFL level QB is profoundly stupid, which is true...
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You know Jim Kelly had a lot more interceptions than TT, I would take JK all day every day over TT. That interceptable stat means nothing to me.
Completely different era.
Probably "reasonable" or "smart."
If he was that good, he wouldn't have had to take a major contract cut. Which is the reason he's still in Buffalo.
Not so much. Completeness doesn't by any means automatically imply better analysis. It means more data. It doesn't mean what's done with the data makes any sense whatsoever or reflects reality well.
A chimp who watches every play won't produce better analysis than an NFL coach who watches a small selection, for instance.
You love to pretend that other QBs need to be compared. They don't. You can easily make judgments about Tyrod just by watching his game.
The ninja strikes again!
I'd respond... but why bother considering you're just going to disappear when any reasonable counter-claim is presented as you always do.
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So then why the low amount of YAC for him - oh yeah - the decisions TT makes and where he throws the ball.
I agree he is not negating YAC with his throws - he refuses to throw passes in locations consistently to get YAC.
His bread and butter throws have consistently been the comeback routes that he is late on and the WR gets tackled immediately and the out breaking routes that lead the WR to the sideline.
He has great completion percentage and that makes his stats look great for a guy like Fahey to compile, but the question is he doing what he needed to do to win. Is he making the plays or not. He does not make mistakes and he does not throw into coverage or into areas where the WR can make a big play, but there is risk.
Fahey's numbers are not absolutely wrong, but they provide almost no context because all he is doing is making subjective numbers out of the result of the play. This makes TT numbers look better than a guy like Rodgers (or many other top line QBs) because Rodgers takes some risks and has more interceptable balls and more incompletions, but part of that is the big plays that come from the risk - especially late in games and late in the half.
Look TT is still the exact same QB you saw the last 2 years - nothing has changed - he is above average in some limited games, but in too many games he does not do enough when the ball is in his hand. He does not lose games for the team - the defense did enough of that, but he does not win games either. If he wants to become a winner - unfortunately I believe you are going to have to see a major shift in those numbers - he is going to have to take a few more risks and throw to some guys that are covered and throw them open. If not the numbers are just that numbers and are meaningless.
I think he has a chance with the new offense, but we will know shortly will he make the plays or will he be replaced and someone else - Peterman/2018 Draft pick will get a shot.
Boy you make a lot of assumptions. How do you know Taylor's numbers look better than Rodgers? Or Brady? Or whoever you want to throw in there? Did you buy the catalogue and look? I never said who was above or below Taylor in any category. If not, what you're doing is just sad.
And why the WRs don't get YAC you claim is Taylor's fault for where he chooses to throw the football...? How do you know how much choice the offensive system gave him in where he threw the football?
I truly doubt it's just me.
Do you truly believe it's everyone who's credible?
Or do they lose credibility if they disagree?
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I like Taylor but his biggest flaws are progression speed and pocket awareness. This is why he led the league in sacks last year. And those are not correctable - they're God-given.
According to Fahey, 7 of Taylor's 39 sacks were avoidable.
Of the leftover 32 sacks, 22 were because of a beaten blocker, 2 were because of a blown assignment, and 8 were coverage sacks.
8 QBs had more avoidable sacks than Taylor, including Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Alex Smith.
Would you say that those QBs also have poor progression speed and pocket awareness?
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Those same plays that had WR and TE running free all over the field week in and week out? Those plays?
Fahey talks about this idea that Taylor had WRs running constantly wide open all over the field that he should have thrown to as a common misconception.
He has his own explanations. I'm not going to copy and paste because that'd be a disservice.
What I'd ask is this: How many of those plays where you saw a WR and TE running free all over the field did you also look at the factors impacting Taylor getting rid of the football?
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I disagree.
And Fahey basically watches every catch and says "that one was the QB's/WR's fault." Which is the eye test. Not sure why that makes his subjective analysis better than mine.
Have you gone through every snap of not just Taylor but those 32 other NFL QBs and charted them using the same "eye test" you used to chart Taylor?
If you have, I'd love to read your numbers. If you haven't, that's why his subjective analysis is better than yours.
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He did not. He gave no criteria for determing how "by the WR" stats are even recorded. Furthermore, Fahey is clearly using his own version of the "eye test" to make his determinants. It's not like he has hard numbers. He's making his own interpretation by watching the plays, the same as me.
The YAC average for the Bills in 2015 was 31st. It was 30th in 2016. Unless our WR's got better in 2016, I'd say Fahey is full of it.
Yeah, but at least he's using his own version of the "eye test" across 32 other NFL QBs.
One of my biggest issues with all the anti-Taylor posters is that they talk about Taylor in a vacuum as though the bar he needs to meet is arbitrarily set up in our minds when that bar should really be what all those other guys playing the position on 31 other NFL teams are doing comparatively.
So, while you might not like Fahey's methodology, at least he does it across the board with all the other QBs in order to give some sort of point of comparison to see where Taylor falls in the hierarchy of certain aspects of the position rather than someone just saying "my eyes tell me he's not good enough."
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Do you agree with Fahey's assessment that Taylor is better than Cousins?
I think they're about the same level of QB. Cousins has really benefitted from 2 pretty exceptional OCs and more continuity from a healthy WR corps.
I take it you think that Cousins is levels above Taylor?
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The numbers? How does Fahey get his "numbers?"
What was our team YAC in 2015? With a Sammy who played almost the entire season?
The evidence is in the game. Not only does TT throw balls that are usually inaccurate enough that WR/TE's can't turn up field, his deficits on using the middle of the field and relying too much on comebacks and outs (sideline throws) virtually ensure poor YAC numbers.
You're right, the evidence is in the game. And if you watched the games, you would know it has everything to do with the types of routes the WRs were running. They were routes overwhelmingly not designed for YAC. "Relying on those comebacks and outs"...?
Dude, he's playing in an offensive system and the plays are called by an Offensive Coordinator, not by Taylor.
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TT's accuracy gives them no chance at YAC, on the whole.
This is incredibly untrue.
Without referring to the fact that Fahey's accuracy % is about how accurate passes are, not whether they are completions or not, I can say this pretty confidently myself because I actually spent time going through a good number of TT's games myself to find how many of his passes negated YAC. That number was very, very low.
This is just one of those blanket statements that lacks insight and is simply "torch and pitchfork" material.
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Another transplant about Tyrod. This should be an exciting rollercoaster.
I still say he's nothing more than a decent stop gap.
It's the 2nd thread I've started in 2 months as a member here.
Yes, both have been about Taylor. Sorry about that. Not likely to start another thread for a while.
Pretty sure this brings in new, different stuff. And it's just me pulling stuff from a source not everyone will have access to for discussion.
Sorry that offends you so much...
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Some questions I have below in bold
Interceptable Pass % was 3rd best
Interceptable Passes caught by Defense was 6th most... in other words, the defenders didn't drop INTs very much for Taylor in comparison to his peers.
For explanations of Accuracy % buy the catalogue because he spends a chapter explaining how he assesses each thing. Like for example, he discards batted passes at the line and obvious throwaways in the passes he charts. Like I said, there's subjectivity and his numbers aren't absolutely perfect because of that subjectivity, but the same criteria was used for all 33 QBs, according to him.
Accuracy % behind LOS means accuracy on passes to WRs behind the LOS, not where he threw the football.
I think you're insight into the % of throws up to 10 yards being so low beyond the LOS is really interesting.
Failed Reception % is 4th highest, meaning Taylor's WRs were at fault for the 4th most incompletions by % of total throws the QB throws in 2016.
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Confirmation bias. Seeking evidence that supports your current belief.
That's the one. Thanks!
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Nothing to discuss, he isn't the QB to get us where we want to go. Our long term solution is either Petterman or a 1st round pick next year.
Look at the new shiny object we just drafted with our 2nd pick in the 5th round!
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Hahahaha, damage control because they drafted a very accurate passer in Peterman. Nervous I see!
Are you joking?
Yes, I'm sure Taylor's shaking in his boots because McDermott clearly plans to replace him with a guy he drafted with a 2nd 5th round pick...
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Thank you for putting this out there OP, and I appreciate another person / professional is does their best to comb through stats and digest them to some degree for us casual readers or observers. However, while the stats are basic math regarding percentages - and I trust the man to have a calculator to do the percentage for him and that he's not "lying" - I disagree with the other statement or conclusion of this information that leads to believing Tyrod is a "good" QB.
To me, finding a good QB is much like what the Supreme Court referred to pornography, "I can't define it, but I know it when I see it"....a really good to great QB is similar. I don't necessarily that works counter toward a poor QB, for that I think only time and experience truly show, unless they were really bad in college, which makes me think they didn't even get a look to come to the NFL. Bottom line for me: Tyrod doesn't pass the eye test. I don't watch the All-22 and from what people say, Tyrod does a fine job, but I watch the games and I watch many, many other NFL and college games, and Tyrod routinely throws the ball high, low, wide or behind a receiver. He misses open receivers in the middle of the field and he gets antsy feet in the pocket. To me, he is not Russ Wilson 2.0, he is just an incredible athlete with a penchant for the deep ball.
IMHO, a true NFL QB stands in the pocket, takes the hits and delivers, commands the Offense with precision and accuracy, and has the ability to take what the Defense gives him bit by bit and chew up the yardage as well as making good audible calls at the line, not just making plays after the snap with his running or elusive ability, which to Tyrod's credit he does as well as anyone in the league. Tyrod was probably the best option for this year, but he is NOT a good NFL QB, he's just better than what we've had for so very long. Sometimes, desperation makes it hard to tell the difference.
Completely fair opinion and well stated, even if I disagree, though not strongly
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Cian Fahey makes for a good follow on twitter
I don't agree with many of his QB assessments, though.
I will take note that he liked Mitch Tribusky quite a bit this year, and really didn't Mahomes. Time will tell.
The fact that he seems to genuinely think Tyrod Taylor is a pretty good QB gives me reason enough to not trust his QB analysis, quite honestly.
There's an actual name for this kind of logical fallacy.
I can't think of the name right now, though.
Anyone...?
Besides, did I post an actual assessment by him of Taylor? Do you believe he skews his data because he's enamored with Taylor?
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The first is how accurate he is overall on ALL of his passes compared to his peers.Taylor is an above average QB...and I cannot wait to see what does in this offense.
But what exactly is:
ACCURACY % - 9th
ACCURACY % behind LOS - 19th
How can he be accurate past the LOS? He can't throw then! So how does the first stat differ from the 2nd?
The 2nd is how accurate he is to passes solely behind the LOS compared to his peers.
He breaks down accuracy % to different levels of the field.
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So first of all, I'd recommend forking out the less than $20 to get this PDF QB catalogue emailed to you. It's obvious he put tons of work and time into this. Last year when someone first mentioned him to me on reference to this catalogue, my reaction was: "who the hell is Cian Fahey?!"
Well, in short, he's good at what he does... having worked at Footballoutsiders for a while before going out on his own. But no matter what you think of his knowledge, what the catalogue primarily accomplishes (at least for me) is a good deal of comparative data that goes beyond the typical charted data the league tracks.
The focus is on the actual level of play of a QB on the field by attributing credit and/or blame for individual things the QB almost always gets credit (i.e.:completion %) or blame (i.e.:interceptions, sacks) for.
Fahey acknowledges the inevitable subjectivity involved, but uses the same subjective criteria to chart 33 NFL QBs and every single one of their snaps. So it's pretty evenly subjective, at least.
There are chapters that discuss in detail all 33 QBs more anecdotally, but I don't want to post too much simply because of the amount of work he put into it. If you're a football fan and specifically a fan of QBs, it's easily worth $20.
But here are a few pieces of comparative data some that seem to counter some preconceived notions.
I think people can figure out what these terms mean themselves, but again, Fahey explains in detail what each category means and what he includes.
All I'm doing is including the rankings among his 32 peers for each category:
INTERCEPTABLE PASS % - 3rd
CAUGHT (by the defense) INTERCEPTABLE PASS % - Tied for 6th highest
ACCURACY % - 9th
ACCURACY % behind LOS - 19th
ACCURACY % passes 11-15 yards - 8th
ACCURACY % passes 11-20 yards - 10th
ACCURACY % passes 5 or more yards - 7th
% of total attempts up to 10 yards beyond LOS - 24th
% of total attempts beyond 10 yards beyond LOS - 10th
FAILED RECEPTION (by the WR) %.- 4th highest
CREATED RECEPTION (by the WR) % - 20th highest
CREATED YARDS (by the WR) % - 26th
ADJUSTED COMPLETION % - 5th
ADJUSTED YPA - 3rd
SCREENS, SCREEN TDs, & SCREEN % - 33rd
AVOIDABLE SACK % - 18th
Anyway... there's a LOT more in the catalogue but I don't know if everyone remembers McDermott's PC about why the Bills decided to keep Taylor and one of the things he mentioned was that in watching Taylor on film last year he was really good (the actual word might have been fantastic, but now I'm too lazy to look it up) and all everyone could call it was "coachspeak?" Maybe that's true, to some degree... but maybe he was also being truthful...
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I'm in for $100. Burn and turn, dealer.
K. Don't know how you wanna put this together, but I'll give you those odds if you're really going to put money down that a healthy Tyrod Taylor is on the bench Week 1 because he lost his job to Yates, Jones or Peterman.
I'm a little amazed how out of your minds some of you folks are.
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Saying a top draft pick will be the QB next year is 100% reasonable and I think that's clearly the plan if Tyrod and the team aren't more productive in 2017 than 2016.I just do not see it - they will let Taylor play out the contract - I just do not see anyway TT gets a longer better contract.
The better shot is a top draft pick next year will be the QB.
That's not something I'd remotely argue against.
It's those saying that Peterman is suddenly "The Guy" that I think are just grasping at straws at this point.
I love the way people keep coming back to this.On Twitter let me get it. Was looking for UDFA signings
Jay Skurski (@JaySkurski)
4/29/17, 2:47 PM
Sean McDermott says every quarterback on the roster will compete for the starting job -- it won't be handed to Tyrod Taylor. #Bills
Someone even used the words "open competition."
Let's see how they split the reps in TC.
Is there anyone willing to bet Taylor isn't the starter Week 1 against the Jets barring injury? I'll give you 3 to 1 odds...
God Thurm. It's clear I annoy you, but try reading posts and conversations you're responding to, please. What are you pulling 3 years from? I responded to Foxx who said he was 95% sure Taylor would be benched by the last game THIS YEAR.Next three years? Yup, you'll get some intelligent takers. Maybe even two years.
And we aren't excited by drafting a QB. We're excited by drafting Nathan Peterman. He's an anticipatory thrower, a guy who uses the whole field and has an NFL brain. Does that mean he'll be a franchise QB? Nobody knows, same as all the other draftees. But it's exciting to see and smart this late in the draft.
You're embarrassing yourself...
QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Fine by me. Seems like a really narrow-minded way to go through life, though.