Governor

No. Many states like Nevada, Illinois, Wyoming, Iowa, Wisconsin, etc. don’t do a lot of polling so you’re going off of an outdated poll. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/upshot/why-this-is-the-iowa-poll-that-everyones-waiting-for.html

What was new in 2020 was this: Lots of new fly by night pollsters starting releasing polls late showing the race tightening or Trump winning. They were hoping that their polls would get added to the RCP averages to make the race appear closer. It didn’t really work. The race never got close.

You’re confusing national polling with state polling. Some state polling was bad in 2016 and it improved in 2020. Some states are notoriously hard to poll or only poll a few times per cycle. Every state has its own quirks. Florida hasn’t mattered since Obama/McCain. They’ve become irrelevant to the process.

Gallup has it at 9 right now. I don’t trust gallop but we can get a general idea. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/04/07/gallup-survey-shows-largest-increase-democratic-party-affiliation-decade/7114860002/ Now remember, that doesn’t mean that all of those voters regularly vote. You look to “likely voter” polls for that.

If you use Voter ID from 2008, Dems should have between 6-7 point advantage. What is that number right now today? Dunno. You’d have to ask Nate Cohn. https://newrepublic.com/article/107813/no-the-polls-arent-oversampling-democrats

Basically, the problem pollsters have is that there’s a huge number of traditionally reliable Republican voters now calling themselves Independents because they’re embarrassed to call themselves Republicans. Trying to figure out exactly how many there are at any given time and how many are your normal “lean” Republicans you would normally see, how many lean Dem, isn’t easy at all. When you see the recent polls with huge over- sampling favoring Dems, that’s why it’s happening. It isn’t some pollster conspiracy to make Donald sad.

I don’t think you’re following our conversation. Kamala isn’t going to be the nomination so you guys should get that out of your heads.

You’re supposed to oversample based on Dem registration and likely voter advantages. This is a tracking poll. It tracks movement. Have you ever had 4 to a flush with 2 cards to come and hit that flush? We’ll, that’s what Trump did in 2016.

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-clinton-in-dead-heat-as-race-hits-final-two-week-stretch-ibdtipp-poll/ The difference in 2016 was that there was movement late in Trump’s direction after the Comey announcement. Polling couldn’t catch up with that movement before Election Day. Ed Rendell and others were sounding alarm bells in Pa. They saw what was happening. There wasn’t enough time to poll those states again. There was no movement in Trump’s direction vs. Biden other than the normal race tightening that occurs a week out.

Hillary had a 1 point lead nationally heading into Election Day. Team Trump knew this one was over by 10am on Election Day. They saw that turnout wasn’t high enough in Pennsylvania.

I’m not sure why anyone thought he would win. He was down 6 percentage for the entire year leading up to the election and lost by 5 points. Why did anyone think he would hit an inside straight twice? Who were these outlets/pollsters saying he could win? There were none. You guys understand how hard it was to win the first time correct? The chance of that happening again were probably 1 percent. He had to win every single state he won in 2016. Was it just blind faith that he’d pull a rabbit out of a hat a second time? There were no surprises other than Georgia. The election went exactly how everyone knew it would.

I think we just did that. Doesn’t the county do their’s first? LMAO.

We’ll, we really can’t take anything away from this since they aren’t a real company. We’re just pretending that it was a real audit to play along.

I was never a fan of Ron Klein but he ran a perfect campaign and has been great at messaging. It was an easy, textbook campaign to run, but they ran it to perfection. I’ve never liked Kamala Harris but she would never win the nomination anyway. It really depends on the political landscape. If the country is looking for a cool, steady hand, but slightly boring guy, then Governor Roy Cooper from NC should jump in. If the country gets bored with Biden and wants someone a little more flashy, it will probably be Gavin Newsom. If Trump runs, then Biden will obviously run.

He definitely knows how to speak to Independents. https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-approval-rating-soaring-independents-1610378

The Ghost of John McCain. I have some friends near you and they said the state overall never really liked Trump all that much in the first place. Attacking their first born certainly didn’t help.

200 votes in a state that supposedly has a large population of undocumented and old people is really good. Half of those people likely voted for Trump. Certainly not a problem that needs to be addressed with new election laws. We already knew that tho. EDIT: it’s only 182 questionable votes whatever that means.

So nothing then.

1 in 5 cases of COVID-19 are now happening in Florida alone. https://www.businessinsider.com/1-in-5-covid-19-cases-happening-in-florida-alone-2021-7?utm_source=notification&utm_medium=referral

I was good enough to hit every one of your buttons in 1 post and cause you to lash out.

Now I have to go to the Jets game, all because you’re terrified of an itty bitty shot. My 6 year old niece isn’t afraid of the shot.

Matt Gaetz hired Epstein’s and El Chapo’s lawyers to defend him. That’s not a good sign. Looks like it’s illegal also. https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/07/15/matt-gaetz-hired-legal-firm-used-by-jeffrey-epstein-and-el-chapo-campaign-report-shows/

Yup. Red governors already knew this months ago but they’re stuck now. This is going to get very ugly. DeSantis and others are about to take a brutal beating politically. Even if they did a 180 tomorrow, their cult members wouldn’t listen to them. For the exception of California, this really will strictly be a red state problem as far as deaths. Blue states are ready to take appropriate measures. Yes, that means your mask is going back on or staying on. I’d be SHOCKED if there’s unvaccinated fans in the stands for this upcoming NFL season other than the usual culprit states. I cancelled my plans for the Tampa game a few days ago. Sorry Mom. It isn’t just about vaccination percentages , it’s about behavior.