Logic

I'm hoping Wilkins falls to the Chargers, for whom I'm picking, a bit later in the draft. The Chargers are weird because they could go about five different directions with the pick, including drafting an heir apparent for Philip Rivers. Picks seem to be moving faster today. Looking forward to my turn!

Not a fan. The only pick I like is the punter in the 7th.

Indeed. But it's fun when a wrench gets thrown into the works like this, because that's what often happens during the draft! I mean, how often to the top 10 picks all go exactly how we think they will? Almost never! This surprise scenario made me realize that in a situation where Ed Oliver and Quinnen Williams are both off the board when the Bills pick (as are Bosa, Allen, and Gary)...I'd pick Hockenson over, say Montez Sweat. I've been so locked in on Oliver lately that I haven't considered what I would do if he were gone and if I couldn't trade back. Turns out the answer is Hockenson.

I second this. Would love some explanation as to the thought process that went into the pick, or to hear what other guys you considered, or whatever.

Thanks for the post. I would be thrilled if the Bills selected Hockenson, but I doubt they will. Most Bills fans, including myself, think it's going to be a DT or Edge rusher. Beane and McDermott's draft histories, as well as those of other men in the draft room, seem to indicate a defensive lineman. An OFFENSIVE lineman might have been the pick at 9, but with the Bills signing 6 of them in free agency, the need is lessened to the point where the Bills needn't reach. Put simply: the 3T position is critical to the success of McDermott's defense, and there is a glaring hole at that position after Kyle Williams' retirement. At the same time, the Bills were bottom 6 in sacks last season defensively, and the contracts of Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson are up after this season, so they direly need to re-stock the edges. For these reasons, DT or Edge seem to be the likely picks. It will not shock me if the Bills take Hockenson, but I sincerely doubt they will. I think Irv Smith in round 2 is a lot more likely.

Here's the really interesting thing: Think of how much Allen benefitted from that six weeks. It was the first time since his last game at Wyoming that he just got to concentrate on learning and getting better. Prior to that, it was combine preparation, pro day preparation, getting drafted, moving to a new town and meeting new teammates, engaging in a three-way battle for starting QB in which he received mainly third string reps in camp, and then being thrust into the lineup before he was expecting it and learning on the fly with very little preparation. Once he FINALLY got to just sit down and learn and watch and process, his game improved leaps and bounds. Seeing how much he was able to improve in six weeks of dedicated learning and observing, I can't help but be really excited for his development this offseason. He's settled in Orchard Park, is secure in his starting spot, is already clearly comfortable demonstrating leadership, is going into his second year under Daboll, and will be getting ALL the starters reps in training camp. That is absolutely HUGE! It can't be overstated how beneficial to his game it will be to not have all the ancillary stuff to worry about, to not have to be a rookie learning on the fly, to have all the live game reps he does under his belt. And none of this even MENTIONS the improved supporting cast around him! I mean...could the Bills actually have a RUNNING game against next season? Could Allen be kept upright and have open targets to throw to? The mind races at the possibilities. Exciting time to be a Bills fan.

Right. I get that. But what I'm asking is what if a corner or safety or other "non-need" position is the clear cut best player left on THEIR BOARD SPECIFICALLY? Do they take said player, or do they not? Several folks have replied mentioning a tiered grading system, the stacking of players with similar grades based on positional value and need, etc...So, going with that, let's suppose in my original scenario that the Bills have all the offensive players ("need" players) I listed in tier 2 of their board. The corner or safety is in tier 1. They've gotta take the corner or safety, right? Are you okay with it if they do? That's what this thread is about.

Thanks for pointing that out. Fixed it!

This is a great example, too, because of how the next few years played out. At the time that Williams was selected, he was viewed as a luxury pick. What happened in the years to come? Richardson turned into a turd and didn't stick around. Wilkerson couldn't reach a long term deal with the Jets. Only Williams remains on their roster. This is the perfect example of the logic of picking BPA, and how it can work out very well for the team.

I like this answer. Specifically, to not draft what the staff views as a premium cornerback just because they have, what...EJ Gaines and Kevin Johnson on the roster? Or undrafted (but awesome) Levi Wallace? You're going to let THOSE guys keep you from drafting a premium player at a premium position?! On the other hand...

I hear you. Many people say "it's a mixture of both. You take the best player available at a position of need". And maybe that's the way to go. But that's not what pure "best player available" actually means. And again I say: A team may have a player who is not a "need" ranked unquestionably higher on their board than a player who DOES fill a "need". Should they ignore the difference in ranking and take the "need" guy? That's the big philosophical question here. And like I said, and like @HOUSE mentioned. To some extent, teams are full of *****. Many teams will talk until they're blue in the face about "BPA no matter what", and then invariably, their premium picks will be spent on need positions. Happens every year. It's a complex and nuanced discussion. In the end, I'm just wondering how our most ardent "BPA no matter what!" people would feel if that became a reality in the form of a non-need in this draft in an early round.

But BPA and what you're describing are two different things, to an extent. I'm asking for those pure defenders of BPA, those people who will tell you "what is not a need today may become a need tomorrow". The dyed-in-the-wool, "BPA is the way!" people. So the corner, in this scenario, is ranked higher on the Bills board than the remaining WRs, TE, and O-linemen I mentioned. Should they take a player they feel is inferior because he is more of a need? Or should they take the player that is, clear and away, the highest rated player still remaining on the board? In this case, a cornerback. What should they do? And if they opt for the cornerback, how do you feel about it?

I was thinking about this the other day. There are many fans on this board who say they're totally fine with the BPA strategy, i.e. drafting the best player available no matter what.. Many will go to great lengths to defend it or remind everyone daily that it's the way to go. I get it. I really do. I'm not here to argue against taking the best player available in each round. It's fine with me. I think every team does a little bit of lip service to it every year while also making draft picks that make it clear that "need" is at least a LITTLE BIT of a factor, but I digress. The point of this post is this: You say you're all for taking the best player available in each round, but if that idea is put to the test, how will you react? Here's the scenario -- The Bills have selected, let's say, Ed Oliver with pick 9. Now, after anxiously waiting for the Bills to be on the clock in the second round, it's finally time. Still available on the board are N'Keal Harry, Hakeem Butler, Irv Smith Jr, Chris Lindstrom, and Dalton Risner. The Bills turn in their card. We all wait with great anticipation as it is announced...."With the 40th pick in the 2019 NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills select....Rock Ya-Sin, cornerback, Temple". Or "The Buffalo Bills select Jonathan Abram, safety, Mississippi State". Well? What's your reaction? Are you thrilled that the Bills got the highest rated player on their board? Are you not at all bothered that they didn't fill their offensive "needs"? What say you? When the tires hit the pavement, are you truly on board with drafting the BPA?

Appreciate the post. I see the following to be more likely: Bills take impact defender at 9 (Oliver?). Bills package 2nd and 3rd round pick to move up to make sure they don't miss out on one of the "big three" tight ends (Hock, Fant, Irv). Bills wind up drafting 6 or 7 players when it's all said and done, not 10.

Liked this one, from Draftnetwork.com's draft machine (the copy and paste comes out all weird, but here it is): TJ Hockenson TE Jeffery Simmons DT Kaleb McGary OT DeMarkus Lodge WR David Montgomery RB Devin Singletary RB Jalen Jelks Edge Derrek Thomas CB Jalen Hurd WR Ryan Finley QB

Just in general, I'd bet there's at least a reasonable chance the Bills could take a defensive back in rounds 2 or 3. If so, expect an epic meltdown on this forum and Twitter and such.

Good post. Overdorf seems to be the one guy who has survived everyone else and stuck around. Pegula empowered Beane to completely re-shape the front office, and Beane opted to stick with Overdorf, even after jettisoning virtually every other member of the front office staff. I get the feeling that while Overdorf takes care of the nuts and bolts of the contracts, he still gets his directive from the GM as far as how much to be willing to spend, how aggressive to be, etc. I don't think he just has carte blanche to do what he wants. I truly don't know, though.

Your post is well thought out and makes logical sense. I can't help but wonder if you're in the right church, but the wrong pew. In other words, I wonder if McBeane are thinking along the exact same lines as you, but they plan to select a different tight end in, say, round 2 or 3. Perhaps they like an Irv Smith or a Dawson Knox or a Kahale Warring. I think a lot of it will come down to whether or not Ed Oliver is on the board at 9. If he is, I think he's the slam dunk pick. If he's NOT, I could absolutely see Buffalo trading back or even just standing pat and taking their tight end of choice. The key to this whole draft, to me, is Beane's recent comment that "if a position is particularly deep in a draft, it allows you to wait a round or two on your need". That statement could apply to the defensive line OR tight end in this year's draft, as both positions are unusually deep. Do they take a defensive lineman early, knowing that they can still get a talented tight end in round 2 or 3? Or do they take one of the "big three" (Hock, Fant, Smith), knowing that they can still get quality lineman into the 3rd and 4th rounds. The last thing I'll say is this: if they select Hockenson, I'll be thrilled. Aside from Oliver, Hock is the one player likely to be available at 9 that I think will be an All Pro level talent for the next decade. This early in a rebuild, that's what the Bills should be after with their top 10 pick: an All Pro level talent. I think Hockenson would be an excellent choice.

The Fate or Ray Ray McCloud? I mean...all things being even, I'm taking The Fate every time.

Hah! But seriously, I love that dude. He's the one redeeming quality the Jets have. I wish he was a Bill.

Bills should spend one of their 7ths on punter Mitch Wishnowsky from Utah. He is being compared to Michael Dickson, Seattle's phenom rookie punter from last year. You've usually got your 2 or 3 best punters in the game and your 2 or 3 worst. The 26 or so guys In between are all pretty interchangeable. So either try to find a top 3 guy or accept that you're one of the middle 26 or so. But whatever you do, make sure you don't have one of the 2 or 3 worst. Arguably, Darr and Schmidt are in that "worst in the league" tier. As such, Bojorquez and a late draftee or UDFA should battle for the starting spot.

That's all inference on your part. And I'd be willing to bet that Beane has spent just as much time on the road as Whaley ever did. Go find me a recent interview or article with Beane where he's not either on the road, just back from the road, or just about to set out on the road.

Using DraftNetwork.com's mock draft machine, here's one I did today: 9) Ed Oliver, DT 40) Kelvin Harmon, WR 74) Kahale Warring, TE 112) Devin Singletary, RB 131) Bobbt Evans, OT 147) Anthony Johnson, WR 158) Jalen Jelks, EDGE 181) Bryce Love, RB 225) Terril Hanks, LB 228) Jordan Miller, CB

Your post completely ignores two critical points. 1.) The culture/locker room when McDermott walked through the door was awful. How many articles did we read from that time about how dysfunctional the ENTIRE Bills organization was from top to bottom? How many shouting matches between head coaches and Whaley took place in public view? Whaley built a collection of talent, but he did not build a team. I don't care that Greg Roman smoke and mirrored the Bills offense to 7th place or that they had a nice collection of names written on paper. The actual team, the team itself, in terms of functioning AS A TEAM, was not built for sustained success. There were some nice coats of paint thrown onto what was ultimately a rotting foundation. 2.) The way that Whaley handed out and structured contracts DID get the Bills into salary cap trouble. The largest cap hits on the team belonged to guys who either underperformed (Dareus), were often injured (Glenn, Clay), or had questionable character (Dareus again). Sammy Watkins was next on the list of guys who were due a second contract. And guess what? He belonged to group 1 (under-performers) AND group 2 (the often injured). Should they have just extended his deal any way? It is certainly fair to say that McDermott and Beane CHOSE to tear down and rebuild the Bills. However, it is important to look at WHY they felt the need to do so. The Bills long term salary cap situation was a mess due to bad contracts. The players who WERE getting big paydays were NOT the type of guys you want to be taking up such large portions of your cap. The culture sucked from top to bottom. The Bills, as constructed, were just good enough to sneak into the playoffs every other year, but didn't have the culture, character, or talent to make it further than that. Even WITH the decision to tear down, jettison bad contracts, and rebuild from scratch, McDermott/Beane's Bills made the playoffs in year 1. Yes, they had a down year 2, but it was a year that featured lots of live reps for their franchise QB (who was obtained largely thanks to their shrewd trading away of the Watkinses and Dareuses of the world for draft capital, thank you), as well as live reps for lots of other crucial youngsters. Now, in just year 3, they have one of the best cap situations in the league and a roster full of promising young players. They are building a team to go BEYOND the occasional wild card weekend, and they are building the right way, with an emphasis on culture and the importance of a sustainable model for success. Kudos to Beane and McDermott, and pshaw to anyone who pretends like they walked into a rosy situation that didn't need A TON of work.