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HappyDays

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Posts posted by HappyDays

  1. 7 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

    Jones is still a top 3 WR on this team of misfit toys.  

     

    You haven't been paying attention. McDermott is noticeably frustrated with the offseason he's had and Jones was overwhelmed all of last season. This isn't the Rex/Whaley regime. Beane and McDermott are always looking to improve every position and no one is safe because of where they were drafted.

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  2. 7 minutes ago, MiltonWaddams said:

    I've called Foster as a roster guy since minicamp. Not backing off that now.

     

    I keep saying Zay Jones is not a lock to make the team. Benjamin and Kerley are locks. The other 4 spots are between Jones, Reilly, Dupre, Proehl, McCloud, Streater, Holmes and Foster. If I had to guess Proehl and McCloud will go go the practice squad but that's still 6 receivers competing for 4 spots.

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  3. 3 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

    QBASE gave Wentz a 61.9% chance of being a bust? How well did that work out?

     

    You would have to look at every QB they've given a 62% bust probability to, and see if around 62% of them busted. If 100% of those QBs busted, that would actually mean the model was broken. This is the biggest misconception about QBASE and other analytics tools. QBASE also gives Allen a 62% chance of busting. That really isn't that high. In Derek Jeter's career he struck out about 69% of the time. So according to QBASE Josh Allen has a better chance of being at least an adequate starter than Jeter had of getting a hit. Just to make a comparison.

     

    And to be fair a lot of these misconceptions happen because the Football Outsider writers overstate their case. I don't know why they're laughing off the possibility that Allen could succeed. Their own model says he has a 38% chance of being a starting level QB. That isn't a particularly low probability.

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