Last Guy on the Bench

"Average in college?" As in middle of the pack out of 120 FBS schools? Really? You don't have to think he will be a great pro to acknowledge that EJ was at least above average. If he was average (i.e., somewhere between, say, the 40th and 80th best FBS QB in the country) then the Bills just made the worst draft pick in the history of the the NFL.

Yeah, it's the same on Game Pass, which I have, living abroad. I imagine it's the same for Rewind. They just show the plays themselves, and it comes in under 30 minutes a game. You do miss some of the drama and the build-up, and if you lose your concentration for a second, you forget what down it is. But it's pretty great. I like it to quickly catch up on games that I've read about as being good. I can plow through the best games of the weekend on Tuesday and Wednesday in a couple of hours total. But if it's a game I actually care about, it's still worth watching live, or at least the full-length archived version (fast forwarding through commercials). I, of course, always watch the Bills live. If they play well, I'll watch the 30 minute archive a couple more times during the week and then again during the off-season. It's a drug.

My point was that if EJ rocked it against Florida, he might not even have been there at 8.

Again, I just think it's tone. If your opinion is that EJ isn't Brady, Manning, or Wilson, you offer a good (though not certain) argument. But asserting that he will never win a game by himself based on a very small number of games feels like a stretch. You just don't really seem that interested in discussion about this. If your mind is mind up, well OK. I'm just not sure why anyone's mind should be made up at this point. I do appreciate your insight, though.

It's not the opinion, it's the tone of certainty. You pick out a few games, each involving dozens of players and coaches, specific conditions, specific systems, etc. and then offer your prediction of the future of a still-developing young player as a fact. Not saying your opinion is not educated. And of course, you might be right. But lots of people with very educated opinions get their player prognostications wrong all the time, either because they didn't account for all the different variables at work (nor could they have), or because players change over time. This is a forum for discussing opinions, but when people present opinions as stone-cold facts, and do it over and over and over again, well, they provoke an understandable reaction. I'd say the same thing to anyone who says repeatedly that EJ will definitely be an all-pro. I posted that vid link, because I was really interested in hearing different takes on EJ's play during that game beyond the obvious stats and end-result. As for me, I have no idea what he will turn into. I'm optimistic, but wouldn't bet a penny on my opinion either way.

Agreed. I never understand people who are so sure about the future of still-developing younger guys. It's a complete fantasy, masquerading as critical thinking, to imagine you can see players' futures clearly. The guys who spend their lives evaluating this stuff for a living are geniuses if they get it approximately sorta kinda right even 50% of the time.

OK, so two per year.

I recently watched all FSU's offensive possessions in the infamous 2012 Florida game. Full game is here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NCdvC9LSlg It wasn't fun, but it didn't bum me out as much as I thought it would. EJ made some bad decisions, but it felt like one of those games that just didn't go well and kind of snowballed on him. Used to happen to Kelly at least once a season. Happens to almost every QB. Also, I think I read somewhere that he had hurt himself the week before, so wasn't playing at 100%. On the plus side, he hung in there mentally. The team came back. EJ's late fumble that killed their chances was not actually careless IMO. He got his clock cleaned. Looked to me like he had the ball pretty securely, but when he got hit his body went limp and he just let go of it. He lay on the ground without moving for a little bit. It was a KO or something close. On another board, a poster mentioned running into Bill Polian at a golf tournament on Friday. The poster said he chatted with Polian for a while about the Bills' draft, and Polian apparently said he had EJ at the top of his rankings until he watched the Florida tape. That seems like a lot of weight to give one game, especially when the guy has played well against some other good teams and in bowl games. If other NFL teams over-weighted that Florida game, and if, as I suspect, it was just one of those days and not indicative or EJ's overall ability or mental toughness, it might have been the best thing that's happened to the Bills in a long time. If EJ plays lights out in that game and they beat the number 4 team in the country, maybe he would have been wearing a KC, Oakland, Jax, or Philly jersey right now. Just a thought.

You can also download full episodes on iTunes. I'm just discovering the show and really enjoying it. Murph is smooth.

Fair enough. I guess, though, I'm a little more anxious to see EJ develop than to eke out an extra win or two this year. If Kolb is a lot better, and we are actually a good team with him, so be it. But if he is just a little better, due to veteran savvy, I'd rather see EJ. Basically I'd rather go 6-10 with EJ than 7-9 or 8-8 with Kolb. If Kolb is so much better that we have a shot at the playoffs, that's another story. No way to really quantify it in practice like that, of course, so it's really up to Marone's gut feeling about the best long-term direction to take the team.

I love watching Ray Lewis play, and I think he is the 2nd best player (all positions) of the last 10+ years, behind only (gag) Tom Brady. (Not looking for a Brady fight here, but I just think he's owned the league in a way no one else has this century, and I hate that I think that.) That being said, LT is miles above Lewis in my mind. That dude owned the field. I can't think of another defensive player in my lifetime (watching since the 70s) who could mentally and physically dominate the game like him, and the ones who were close like Bruce and Reggie, weren't linebackers. IMO, LT is the best overall NFL player of the last 40 years. Never saw Butkus really, so I can't comment on him. I know he was tough and crazy, but so was LT, and I can't imagine Butkus was nearly as much of an athletic freak as LT.

This. Well said. It's really not about how ready he is (no one is ready coming out of college) but about how mentally resilient he is. If he is resilient, let him get ready on the field. If he is less so, let him get ready off the field, which will be slower and less fun for the fans, but still OK. I think you are right, though. He sure seems like the kind of guy who can handle the inevitable lumps.

Anyone heard if any of our rookies have that late exam/can't participate until June thing going on? I forget the exact rule, but it has to do with when a draft pick's college actually finishes the semester. I hope they are all eligible to come in next week.

Good post. The glee with which people instantly pile on is disturbing, let alone the racist tone of some. I'm taking lots of joy in the EJ pick, and no doubt Geno isn't coming off too well right now. But there is no reason to wish him ill. And as many have pointed out, this could all be so much froth. Maybe Geno turns into a HOFer and EJ ends up as just a very likable bust. I don't think so - I couldn't be more excited about EJ. But anyone who claims to know how things will turn out is crazy.

Loved that. Loved the receptionist too. And loved Werner and EJ jawing about the first preseason game (Indy Buffalo). Second preseason game is Vikes so EJ will get to face Rhodes right after facing Werner.

Good listen. Thanks. A few things were interesting to me: -EJ started hanging out with the high school team informally when he was in 8th grade and Coach Moore said he would have started him that year if it were legal. -Coach Moore took a very long-term, developmental approach with EJ from the start. Said he thought he was NFL material right away (14 years old) and used to talk to EJ about "the big picture" and what he needed to do to get there. -In line with that developmental approach, Coach Moore refused to let him run the option his freshman and sophomore years (he started all four years), because he wanted him to solidify his pocket mechanics and didn't want him racially stereotyped as just an "athletic" running QB. Took some heat for this decision from people who said he kept the reins too tight on EJ's play those first two years. Anyway, thoughtful guy, and intriguing to hear some deep background on EJ.

That might be in EJ's favor over Kolb and Jackson. He put up with a rookie riddled o-line his junior year at FSU and managed to keep himself together. No one is at their best when getting pummeled, but I think he is a guy that can handle it better than most.

Thanks. I think he comes off very well in this interview, at any rate. He was smart to sign here. New staff with no preconceptions about the team. Really only Stevie as an established vet, with TJ semi-established, and Woods and Goodwin obvious shoe-ins for roster spots. That's only four though. He can fight it out with Easley, Smith, other UDFAs, etc. for the 5th and maybe 6th slots. If he has his head on straight and works hard, athletically he's got to be the favorite, I would think.

That's my worry. I don't think you can hedge your bets with a young QB the same way you can with other positions. A few bad games and the fans and even teammates can romanticize the backup (especially if he's prominent and young) and get inside the starter's head/divide the team, etc. Once a QB is established, it's fine to bring in some competition, but not when he is a highly drafted rookie. If Kolb beats Manuel out, fine. But if Manuel wins the job, you ride him for at least one unquestioned year, and for two or three if he shows anything at all. If it doesn't work out after that, you cut bait and move on. Just my opinion.

Thanks for the tip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IecoH4QZog

Interesting report from Senior Bowl practices: http://www.burntorangenation.com/football/2013/1/24/3912530/marquise-goodwin-senior-bowl-2013-nfl-draft-projections-texas-longhorns-football

You're a poet. That's exactly what it was like, except draft day is more fun than Christmas.

I think they will try to trade down and even take less than is standard to do so. But either way, whether at 8 or mid-round or even down at the end with San Fran's pick, I think they will take: EJ Manuel And I would be ecstatic about it. He's the only guy that really gets me excited about the future of the team. I've heard all the arguments for Nassib, and many of them make sense (not including the "familiarity" argument, which makes no sense to me - this is a 10 year project if it works - who cares if one guy takes a little longer to learn the offense?), but I'm just not feeling him. I'd be OK with Barkley too, but I don't think they are going that way.

Didn't they take Mike Williams at 4 and Dareus at 3?

Nice short write-up on him by Klosterman: http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/58506/in-memoriam-pat-summerall-1930-2013