Dont Stop Billeiving

A lot of key contributors for Houston listed here...granted they were playing Jacksonville, but Houston's offense looked their best when Amendola was healthy in Week 1. And Mitchell is a very average player IMO, but they need him back healthy, Houston will be desperate for all the CBs they can get on Sunday. I expect Reid, Britt, and Grugier-Hill to play, but will they be at 100%?

Haha true story, it was a much more painful task this week than usual. Once Tyrod got hurt, their offense really became unbelievably boring. If we can take away Cooks and take advantage of Mills' limited mobility and tendency to hold onto the ball, I don't see a reason why we shouldn't cover.

A dominating and balanced performance against the Washington Football Team. Josh Allen reminded us how elite he can be. Zack Moss was punishing defenders. Aside from a fluky kickoff and a well-executed screen play, the Bills defense completely shut down Taylor Heinicke and the WFT passing offense and through three games, we have an elite run defense (haven't said those words in a very long time!). Daboll/Frazier drew up brilliant game plans and McDermott displayed aggressive in-game mgmt. Three games in and now a game up in the division, that Week 1 loss feels very far away. Looking ahead, the Bills are welcoming the Houston Texans to town coming off their loss on Thursday Night Football against the Carolina Panthers. The Texans are going through a rebuild and are basically a completely new team compared to the one that knocked us out of the playoffs in 2019. Stars like DeAndre Hopkins, JJ Watt, and Deshaun Watson are gone while they brought in about 200 new guys in free agency this past offseason. There was an expectation that Houston could tank and that they would likely be the worst team in the NFL, but to be honest, I think the Texans are a better team than the Jets and the Jaguars as they showed in Week 1. Houston got some decent value on some of their free agent pickups particularly on offense and have a few talented players on both sides of the ball. It's worth noting that Houston will have a rest advantage having played on Thursday Night Football. For the second straight week, the opponent's starting QB/former Bills QB is on the IR and Tyrod Taylor will miss this reunion in Buffalo. Third round rookie WR Nico Collins joins him on the IR as well. Same as the previous weeks/seasons, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into Houston's last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful: ***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics*** https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings ***take these with a grain of salt since it has only been three weeks!*** Sunday September 12th- Week 1 Home Win vs. Jacksonville (the Jaguars (current record: 0-3) have the 29th ranked offense, 27th ranked defense, and 15th ranked special teams) by a score of 37-21: Tyrod Taylor (21/33 for 291 yards, 2 passing TD, and 0 INT with 40 rushing yards)- Tyrod played his usual style of game and played well to open the season. He displayed his ability to escape pressure to extend plays, picking up first downs with his legs or executing accurate throws to open receivers. Taylor evaded multiple would-be sacks and limited mistakes, looking a lot like the player he was with the Bills. Taylor seems to have established great chemistry with his #1 WR Cooks, connecting on a couple deep shots downfield (has to be said that a better secondary would have broken up or picked off both throws though). Taylor led his team on a great TD drive before the half, hitting Amendola on a crossing route for the TD. However, as much as he's easy to root for and has been through a lot of the past few years, he's still a limited QB at this level in terms of his willingness to throw WRs open. The offensive line (which definitely looked stronger on the left side) struggled in the run game, but held up fairly well in pass protection, allowing only 1 sack although Taylor helped them out several times. Texans Running Game- A veteran RB room with Mark Ingram (85 yards, 3.3 YPC, and 1 TD) as the primary back and then a mix of Phillip Lindsay (25 yards, 3.1 YPC, and 1 TD), David Johnson (10 yards and 3.3 YPC as well as 3 catches for 18 yards and 1 TD), and Rex Burkhead getting a few snaps here and there. Ingram never goes down on first contact, but wasn't especially effective on his carries. He rumbled in for Houston's first TD off the left side. Johnson looks a bit faster than he has in the past couple seasons and hauled in a short TD catch, walking in untouched after a well-designed pick play. Lindsay provides the speed and receiving ability for a change of pace and scored Houston's last TD running off the left. It is worth noting that Houston's YPC was poor and they also struggled to convert on several third-and-short plays throughout this contest. Brandin Cooks (5 catches for 132 yards)- Has bounced around the league a ton for a player with his talent (there has something going on with him behind the scenes, right?). Cooks made an incredible forty yard contested catch over Janoris Jenkins to set the Texans up with a first-and-goal opportunity in the first quarter. Then Cooks won another contested catch situation to set up Houston in the red zone for a TD with only 12 seconds left in the second quarter. Jacksonville struggled to contain him and he made a number of chunk plays to set up Houston for scoring opportunities. Chris Conley (2 catch for 27 yards)- The #2 WR in this offense, not a major factor in this one. Danny Amendola (5 catches for 34 yards and 1 TD)- The trouble with Amendola has always been availability, but he's still a steady and reliable chain mover when healthy. Got separation on a crosser to score the Texans' third TD Pharoah Brown (4 catches for 67 yards)- Didn't really know anything about this player before this week. Made an outstanding one-handed catch to set the Texans up for their final TD. Texans Run Defense- Didn't have too much work to do as Jacksonville was multiple scores behind for most of the game and went pass-heavy. Carlos Hyde (44 yards and 4.9 YPC) and James Robinson (25 yards and 5.0 YPC) didn't get many opportunities as a result, but found some room to operate on their touches. Texans Pass Defense- After all the hype before and after the draft, Houston gave Trevor Lawrence (28/51 for 332 yards, 3 passing TD, and 3 INT with -2 rushing yards) a rude welcome in his pro debut. Lawrence found some soft spots in the Texans zone defense and there seemed to be some busted coverages at times for Houston, but he made too many rookie mistakes and two of the TDs came in garbage time. Justin Reid got the first INT of Trevor Lawrence's career as he was in perfect position for a throw that sailed as Lawrence was rolling out to his left. Then Vernon Hargreaves baited Lawrence into an ill-advised INT on his next attempt, setting Houston up in the red zone. Lawrence saved his worst INT for the fourth quarter when he threw over the middle straight to Christian Kirksey, I honestly don't know what he saw as there were four Houston players nearest to the ball before the closest Jacksonville target. These INTs happened even as the Texans pass rush struggled to get home with Whitney Mercilus getting the only sack of Lawrence late in the fourth quarter. Miscellaneous- On a third-and-goal play, Taylor ran and then lateraled the ball to Johnson which went out of bounds (weird given our last game against Houston and how rarely you see that type of play). Houston led 34-7 late in the third quarter before Jacksonville made the score line a bit more respectable. Joey Slye is the current Texans kicker while Ka'imi Fairbairn is on IR. Houston averaged 6.0 yards per play (they went 12/21 on third down and didn't commit a turnover) and committed 5 penalties for 50 yards. Sunday September 19th- Week 2 Away Loss vs. Cleveland (the Browns (current record: 2-1) have the 4th ranked offense, 10th ranked defense, and 6th ranked special teams) by a score of 31-21: Tyrod Taylor (10/11 for 125 yards, 1 passing TD, and 0 INT with 15 rushing yards and 1 TD)- started this game really well, going 6/6 and leading his offense for a TD on their first drive. Has done a great job on RPOs so far, seems to always make the right decision and sells it well. Evaded pressure and walked into the end zone to give Houston a surprise 14-7 lead in the second quarter. Unfortunately, Taylor was injured and then replaced by rookie Davis Mills (8/18 for 102 yards, 1 passing TD, and 1 INT) in the third quarter. Mills was intercepted while throwing over the middle almost immediately which gave Cleveland the ball in the red zone. Mills did lead a nice fourth quarter drive that ended with a TD to Cooks, but didn't feel the pressure and took a bad sack on his second last drop back and then nearly got sacked on his final attempt as well, holding onto the ball too long. The offensive line put together another steady performance, allowing just the one sack of Mills. Texans Running Game- Lindsay showed his elusiveness on a well-blocked screen play to the right and weaved his way for a 22 yard TD. Johnson (25 yards and 4.2 YPC as well as 22 receiving yards) ran hard after catching a short pass on a third-and-13 play and broke three tackles to pick up a key first down. Ingram (41 yards and 2.9 YPC) never really got going despite getting the most carries. Brandin Cooks (9 catches for 78 yards and 1 TD)- Kept quiet for most of the game as Cleveland's DBs made him a priority (Greg Newsome II looks really good so far, wanted him on the Bills). Cooks drew a defensive pass interference to set up first-and-goal for Houston when it looked like the game was getting out of reach and had a big fourth quarter as Houston found ways to scheme him open. Chris Conley (1 catch for 13 yards)- Did a good job using his physicality and body positioning on a slant route, but didn't catch another pass after. Danny Amendola (1 catch for 9 yards)- Not a factor and was injured during this game. Pharoah Brown (0 catches for 0 yards) and Jordan Akins (1 catch for 17 yards)- Cleveland was able to take the tight ends away in this matchup. Texans Run Defense- The Texans had a tough task in this match up and struggled to pass their first true test after the Jaguars gave up on the run early last week. Houston allowed a goal line touchdown on a fullback dive in the first quarter and then was slow to react and allowed Mayfield to scramble in untouched for a game-tying TD before HT. After Houston made it a three point game with only seven minutes remaining, the defense let Nick Chubb (95 yards, 8.6 YPC and 1 TD) score an easy 26 yard TD run off the right side. Kareem Hunt (51 yards and 3.9 YPC) kept the chains moving. Texans Pass Defense- Houston made some key plays and took the ball away early in the game, but outside of those toxic differential plays, the Texans were soft in coverage and didn't get enough pressure on Baker Mayfield (19/21!!!! for 213 yards, 1 passing TD, and 1 INT with 10 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD). Jacob Martin did a great job beating Jack Conklin to the inside on a perfect swim move to sack Baker Mayfield on Cleveland's first drive and Kamu Grugier-Hill got the other Texans sack. Justin Reid also made an outstanding play forcing a Donovan Peoples-Jones fumble that Kirksey recovered to stop a promising Cleveland drive and then picked off Mayfield on their next drive as he threw deep middle. Zach Cunningham made a highlight-worthy tackle on Kareem Hunt in space to force a late punt. With Beckham Jr and Landry out injured, Cleveland's TEs were everywhere and did a good job of finding space against Houston's Cover 2 scheme. The Texans defense play deteriorated in the second half, spectacularly missing several tackles on a 33 yard Demetric Felton screen pass for a TD. Miscellaneous- After an early third down sack that forced a Cleveland punt, Andre Roberts proceeded to muff the punt, giving the ball right back to the Browns in excellent field position. Nico Collins ripped off a big gain on a catch and run over the middle, but got injured later on and will miss the Bills game. Joey Slye missed a routine FG right at the end that ended Houston's hopes for a win. Houston averaged 5.2 yards per play and committed 9 penalties for 78 yards. Thursday September 23rd- Week 3 Home Loss vs. Carolina (the Panthers (current record: 3-0) have the 12th ranked offense, 1st ranked defense, and 31st ranked special teams) by a score of 24-9: Davis Mills (19/28 for 168 yards, 1 passing TD, and 0 INT with 0 rushing yards)- Got his first career start after playing less than a half in Week 2. Mills isn't nearly as mobile as Tyrod and that makes their RPOs and overall offense less dangerous. When he's kept clean and everything stays on schedule, Mills made some nice throws, but he struggled whenever a block was missed or when he had to improvise. After struggling to move the ball for the entire first half, Mills put together an impressive two minute drive, finding Cooks on a nice deep pass and then Antony Miller in the back of the end zone for a TD just before halftime. Houston's offensive line had their worst performance of the season as Mills couldn't bail them out with his limited athleticism, allowing four sacks and letting Mills take some huge hits. The kid is tough to be fair, but this was ultimately a very poor game as the Texans offense only gained 193 yards and went 1/9 on third down. Texans Running Game- No highlight worthy plays to speak of. The three RBs literally combined for 15 carries and 37 rushing yards. Brandin Cooks (9 catches for 112 yards)- This dude is their entire offense. Cooks caught four passes on four straight plays in the fourth quarter. Anthony Miller (4 catches for 20 yards and 1 TD)- Played a role in this game after he wasn't involved in the first two. Beat his man on a quick slant for the Texans' first TD. However, Miller did drop a key pass on third down that killed a promising drive. Chris Conley (0 catch for 0 yards)- Non-factor. Danny Amendola- out injured. Jordan Akins (4 catches for 32 yards)- Made a couple nice grabs on third down and he seems to have replaced Pharoah Brown. Texans Run Defense- Sam Darnold scampered in for Carolina's first TD off an RPO when the DE lost contain and bit on the run fake, broke off a 30+ yard run later on that got called back on a penalty, and scored on a late QB sneak. Christian McCaffery (31 yards and 4.4 YPC) is a stud as we all know, but it didn't look like Houston could even get close to him before he left injured in the second quarter. Houston's interior defensive line did win the LoS and stuff Chuba Hubbard (52 yards and 4.7 YPC) on a huge fourth-and-one play in the red zone. Hubbard also started chewing Houston up after the defense tired late in the game. Texans Pass Defense- I honestly don't know what Lovie Smith was being paid for this week, Houston played so vanilla and gave Carolina's weapons so much space to operate. DJ Moore (8 catches for 126 yards) and the other Panthers receivers were living rent free in the middle of the Texans' soft zone coverage and Sam Darnold (23/34 for 304 yards, 0 passing TD, and 0 INT with 11 rushing yards and 2 TDs) just went up and down the field throwing to wide open targets. The Houston pass rush played their best game of the young season (3 sacks) as Jonathan Greenard flew around the edge and tomahawked Darnold's arm to force a fumble and Ross Blacklock did the same in the second half from the interior, but Carolina recovered both. Miscellaneous- Andre Roberts fumbled a punt for a second straight week. Slye missed his second XP of the season, but then rebounded to hit a 53 yard FG later. Houston averaged 3.9 yards per play and committed 7 penalties for 51 yards. Sunday October 3rd Preview- Week 4 Houston (current record: 1-2, the Texans have the 21st ranked offense, 12th ranked defense, and 28th ranked special teams) vs Buffalo (current record: 2-1, the Bills have the 16th ranked offense, 2nd ranked defense, and 19th ranked special teams): Bills On Offense- Houston's defense actually has an above average DVOA ranking through three games, but this will be the first game in the 2021 season where Josh Allen and the passing offense will get to work against a below average secondary especially at outside corner. I think this is a game that Stefon Diggs can take over. I don't see any CBs on this Texans roster that can hang with him. The front seven has a couple solid players in Mercilus and Cunningham, but no elite difference-makers on paper. Houston also leads the league in missed tackles so we need to get our playmakers in space and maybe even give Matt Breida and Isaiah McKenzie some extra touches this week to force the issue. Eric Murray and Justin Reid form an above average safety tandem, but Reid missed Houston's last game. Lastly, Carolina scored a TD on a TE jet sweep to Tommy Tremble; I'd love to see us call that for Knox one of these days who's even more athletic. This could be a big Knox game either way as Houston has really struggled to cover TEs in 2021. Bills On Defense- Another week, another opponent who runs their offense through their star #1 WR. Brandin Cooks is playing at an elite level in 2021 so far. He's in the top five of the NFL in receiving yards through three games and it's not hard to see why as nearly FORTY percent of Houston's passing attempts have headed in his direction. Despite their below average offense, Houston has been surprisingly effective converting third downs and Cooks is the guy that keeps the chains moving. The biggest key to stopping this offense is to take Cooks away and make their secondary players step up if they can. Beyond that, Davis Mills held onto the ball for a long time last week and isn't mobile so I'm predicting that our defensive line gets back to the form they showed against Miami. Poyer looks like he could miss this game potentially, but I trust our defense against this rookie QB and a popgun offense with the exception of Cooks. On Special Teams- Joey Slye has such an inconsistent track record and has already missed several attempts in 2021. Houston can't get Fairbairn back fast enough. Cameron Johnston is a fairly average punter, but allows a high percentage of returns on his punts as per Joe Marino of Locked On Bills. Andre Roberts was the one that got away this past offseason, but he's had a rough start as the Texans' returner with a couple of fumbles. Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Can't wait for Sunday! All the best and Go Bills!

Thanks man! Interested to see Houston's injury report throughout this week...specifically the status of Justin Reid and then Kamu Grugier-Hill and Ka'imi Fairbairn to a certain extent. Reid might be Houston's best player these days.

JM has mentioned this on Locked On Bills a few times recently as I'm sure you know, but this 2021 Bills team is way more balanced than the 2020 version based on the eye test and the stats. If last season's team didn't have peak Josh Allen and 300 passing yards, we were in trouble. This season, the rushing offense and the defense have been picking up the slack even when we can't throw our way to a win. Bodes well for our chances to stack wins and maybe even get to the Super Bowl.

Agreed, Sterling Shepard ATE last week and Beasley/Knox should have advantageous matchups tomorrow. Middle of the field is a free pass from what I saw.

Didn't know that, good shout man...that Wyoming team had a sneaky amount of guys drafted. Roullier is an above average center in the league and their overall line as others have said is the best one we'll have faced so far in 2021.

Well, it's always a much more enjoyable week after a win and especially a shutout/blowout win over a division rival! Week 1 was a gut punch and beating the Dolphins didn't prove that all our faults are fixed, but it was a great start. This defense, especially the young guys on the defensive line, looks to be for real and are getting much more pressure on the opposing QBs this season than we were used to in 2020. On top of that, Matt Milano and Taron Johnson might be our two best performers in 2021 so far, plenty of splash plays from that duo. The offense and Josh Allen still looked off and both Daboll and the players have some things to clean up. However, it was a much needed bounce back game from the offensive line, Singletary and Moss looked effective, and we scored points/built the lead on sustained drives at the start of both halves which was significant in securing the win. There's still a lot of questions, but the offense did enough to get the win and it's wild to think that a 35-0 win over a team that won ten games last season has elicited a somewhat 'Meh' reaction from the fanbase...goes to show how far the team has come and how our expectations have changed with it. Looking ahead, we're back at home to take on the Washington Football Team coming off their one-point win against the New York Giants. It's worth noting that this will be the WFT's first road game of the season and also that they will have a rest advantage having played on Thursday Night Football. In general, their offense has overachieved despite some key injuries and their vaunted defense (which ranked #2 in total defense in 2020) has underwhelmed. Our old friend Ryan Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel are both on the IR and will miss this match up. Same as the previous weeks/seasons, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the WFT's last two games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful: ***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics*** https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings ***take these with a huge grain of salt since it has only been two weeks!*** Just a quick note that this post for our Week 3 opponent will be a bit different/shorter than the usual format given that we only have the opening two games to go on so far (as the season progresses, I will continue to look at the opponent's three previous games as usual). Sunday September 12th- Week 1 Home Loss vs. the Los Angeles Chargers (the Chargers (current record: 1-1) have the 20th ranked offense, 20th ranked defense, and 27th ranked special teams) by a score of 20-16: Taylor Heinicke (11/15 for 122 yards, 1 passing TD, and 0 INT with 17 rushing yards)- Heinicke entered the game just before halftime after a hip injury sidelined starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Right away, he showed off the mobility and athleticism that gave Tampa Bay fits in the 2020 playoffs, throwing accurately on the move and leading a drive for a FG as time expired in the first half. In the second half, Heinicke showed off his improvisation skills as he escaped pressure and hit McLaurin on a shovel pass for a 17 yard gain. The numbers don't jump off the page, but he limited mistakes and was a steady replacement. The offensive line kept Heinicke upright for the most part (only 1 sack allowed). WFT Running Game- I always knew Antonio Gibson (90 yards and 4.5 YPC as well as 3 catches for 18 yards) was fast and was a great receiving back, but I never realized how big and physical he actually is. Gibson is skilled at bouncing off would-be tacklers and maintaining his balance to keep moving forward and is very dangerous once he reaches the second level. He proved to be a mismatch for LAC's linebackers on swing passes as well. However, it's fair to argue that Gibson cost Washington this game as he fumbled inside his own five yard line in the fourth quarter, leading to a Chargers TD and a lead they wouldn't relinquish. JD McKissic is a talented and versatile back up for the WFT, but only got one carry for eight yards. WFT drafted Jaret Patterson out of UB in this past draft and he received two carries for nine yards. Terry McLaurin (4 catches for 62 yards)- One of the most underrated playmakers and route runners in the NFL. Was kept quiet during the first half, but brought in an acrobatic catch on a contested deep ball to set up Washington for their first TD. Dyami Brown (1 catch for -2 yards)- Rookie speedster from UNC who a lot of draft experts had targeted to the Bills. Drew a defensive pass interference call on a deep ball in the second quarter that netted 30+ yards. Brown definitely looks to be a threat down the field if the QB can get it to him, but wasn't a factor in this game otherwise. Adam Humphries (2 catches for 10 yards)- not heavily involved, but continues to be an underrated slot WR IMO. Logan Thomas (3 catches for 30 yards and 1 TD)- Former college QB and Buffalo Bill who has really developed into a solid NFL TE and played his way to a nice contract. Out-jumped his man in the end zone for a big TD that gave Washington its first lead in the third quarter. WFT Run Defense- Austin Ekeler (57 yards, 3.8 YPC and 1 TD) and Larry Rountree III (27 yards and 3.4 YPC) gashed the WFT defense on the ground early on especially running off the left tackle. There were a fair share of missed tackles as well. However, it seemed like after the first quarter the Chargers favored a pass heavy approach and the WFT adjusted to stuff the run more effectively. Overall, the Chargers were 14 of 19 on third down as the WFT defense just couldn't get off the field. WFT Pass Defense- Made a couple splash plays throughout the game, but looked beatable and struggled to cover the Chargers wide receivers and tight ends. Justin Herbert (31/47 for 337 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT) looked very comfortable early on as the WFT pass rush failed to get home on most snaps (only 2 sacks and I didn't notice many pressures on tape). Washington had no answer for Keenan Allen (9 catches for 100 yards) and Jared Cook (5 catches for 56 yards), particularly on crossing and seam routes so I'm hoping Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox will be able to take advantage of this in a similar way with their size and speed. On the positive side, Jonathan Allen was able to sack Herbert on a key 2nd-and-goal play late in the first half that helped to force a FG and Montez Sweat was able to get around the edge and hit Herbert's arm during his throwing motion to force a pivotal incompletion...or at least it should have been. The refs ruled it a fumble that went out of the back of the end zone for a touchback which was a truly awful call IMO given that his arm was clearly moving forward before contact. On the Chargers next possession, LAC was driving deep into Washington territory when Herbert sailed a throw and William Jackson broke on the route and was in perfect position to intercept. However, with about seven minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Chargers received the ball inside their own ten yard line and they proceeded to run out the clock mostly on chunk passing plays between the hashes. WFT couldn't get a stop when it mattered the most. Miscellaneous- Hopkins missed a key 51 yard field goal attempt wide left in the fourth quarter. WFT averaged 5.3 yards per play (they ran 29 less plays on offense compared to LAC and were outgained 424-259 in this contest) and committed 8 penalties for 57 yards. Thursday September 16th- Week 2 Home Win vs. the New York Giants (the Giants (current record: 0-2) have the 12th ranked offense, 27th ranked defense, and 5th ranked special teams) by a score of 30-29: Taylor Heinicke (34/46 for 336 yards, 2 passing TDs, and 1 INT)- after a full week of preparation as the starter, Heinicke and the Washington offense started slowly, but went on to have a much better and efficient game. Heinicke took an ugly sixteen yard sack that killed an early drive and was pressured and forced to throw the ball away in the first quarter, but began to adjust and did a good job of taking what the Giants defense gave him and evading pressure. He threw a killer fourth quarter INT which could have cost them the game, but made up for it by engineering a two minute drive for the winning FG. The offensive line put together another stellar performance, allowing just the one early sack. WFT Running Game- McKissic (10 rushing yards and 1 TD along with 5 catches for 83 yards) scored untouched on a nicely blocked zone run on third-and-goal and later beat an NYG linebacker on a wheel route for 50+ yards in the fourth quarter. McKissic also made some hugely significant plays on the WFT's winning FG drive, a massive fourth down conversion on a inside run being the standout play. Gibson (69 yards and 5.3 YPC) broke off one big run between the RG and RT to set up a field goal at the end of the third quarter and otherwise helped to pace the offense. Terry McLaurin (11 catches for 107 yards and 1 TD)- Washington's offense only really got going once they started to target McLaurin and they kept going back to that well often. He beat his man on a post route for the first WFT TD (the Giants corners gave him way too much cushion on the TD and then on several other catches throughout the contest which confused me as I would have thought you'd want to affect his release and timing). The way he breaks off his comeback routes is almost unmatched and he is just so clean and reliable in all aspects of the position. The Giants don't have anyone close to Tre White's level on their roster, but it should still be one of the toughest match ups White will face all season. Dyami Brown (3 catches for 34 yards )- Played much better in his second career game. Went up and high-pointed a ball to help out his QB on their first scoring drive. Adam Humphries (7 catches for 44 yards)- Helped keep the chains moving and played a part on the winning drive. Logan Thomas (5 catches for 45 yards) - Nothing spectacular, but a steady presence and safety valve who got open over the middle. Ricky Seals-Jones also made a crucial TD catch in the back of the end zone with only minutes left to put Washington ahead for the first time. WFT Run Defense- Were susceptible to draw plays including a 45 yard Saquon Barkley (57 yards and 4.4 YPC) run as the pass rush left a large gap in the middle. The defensive line also failed to play with the proper contain technique and got burned by Jones on RPOs and designed QB sweeps several times (especially Montez Sweat who kept crashing down over and over). Jones actually had a 56 yard TD run (!!!) called back on a pretty bogus holding penalty and he still had 9 other carries for 95 yards and 1 rushing TD that counted. I didn't really see the Giants utilize the screen game and it's not a big part of our usual scheme either, but the Washington front seems to play with reckless abandon so mixing in some screens could be beneficial. WFT Pass Defense- Another game where this defense underachieved compared to its play in 2020 and its blue-chip talent on paper this season. Even in third-and-long situations, it failed to stop Daniel Jones (22/32 for 249 yards and 1 TD) and the Giants offense too often. The middle of the field was just wide open constantly. Sterling Shepard was the engine of the NYG offense with 9 catches for 94 yards. Darius Slayton got behind Jackson one-on-one down the sideline for a 33 yard TD in the second quarter. Landon Collins is always looking for the big hit at the expense of most other things and he looks very vulnerable the further he is from the LoS. Benjamin St-Juste (who was a long, athletic CB prospect I liked in this year's draft) looks a bit raw right now and could be had for some big plays as well. It should be noted that the Giants have one of the worst offensive line groups in the NFL, but the pass rush did make itself known in this game (4 total sacks) and they also did a good job of forcing the Giants to settle for three points rather than seven. Jonathan Allen was dominant on the interior, getting two more sacks and rarely allowed Jones to step up in the pocket. Miscellaneous- The Giants led for nearly the entire game, but never managed to put the WFT away. Slayton actually dropped a wide open 45 yard TD pass on a busted coverage in the fourth quarter that could have put them up by two scores with 5 minutes remaining. Then as Dustin Hopkins missed the go-ahead field goal as time expired, Dexter Lawrence was called for Offside and Hopkins made his second attempt, giving Washington their first win. WFT averaged 5.9 yards per play and committed 9 penalties for 80 yards. Sunday September 26th Preview- Week 3 Washington Football Team (current record: 1-1, have the 9th ranked offense, 18th ranked defense, and 2nd ranked special teams) vs the Buffalo Bills (current record: 1-1, have the 26th ranked offense, 2nd ranked defense, and 25th ranked special teams): Bills On Offense- The strength and elite level of talent of the WFT defense lies in the defensive line and their pair of outside corners. We have to have a plan for Chase Young/Montez Sweat on the outside and Jonathan Allen on the inside and not allow them to wreck the game. Getting the ball out quickly, utilizing Singletary/Moss as well as some extra TEs/OLs in pass pro, and allowing Josh Allen to use his legs more effectively than we have seen this year all seem like advantages. Mix in some play-action, RPOs, jet sweeps to freeze the defense for that half second...all elements of the scheme that were successful last season that Daboll hasn't used as much in 2021. The WFT defense have been vulnerable in the middle of the field as their LBs and safeties have struggled to hold up in coverage. This is a defense with several new players and it's important that we test their communication and chemistry with our route combinations. Washington as a team have one of the most penalized in the NFL through two weeks and their defense in particular have committed several costly penalties. This WFT defense is in poor form so far so we just need to take the easy yards, limit turnovers, and hammer the middle of the field with crossing and seam routes. Bills On Defense- First off, Taylor Heinicke is no scrub, he has definitely impressed me on tape for a guy with his resume. He's athletic, accurate, and steady-handed in leading this offense and he's proven that this league isn't too big for him so far. The number one key to success IMO is to take McLaurin away by all means necessary and force their other skill players to beat you. I don't know if that means White shadowing him which isn't typical for our defense, but I don't think Dyami Brown, Adam Humphries, and Logan Thomas can make enough plays and carry this offense if we eliminate McLaurin. Next, we need to blitz Heinicke (who struggles more than most when blitzed) and get creative like we did against Miami so he doesn't know where the pressure is coming from (and yes that means that occasionally Groot, Epenesa, and the other DEs will drop into coverage). Heinicke is pretty athletic and mobile, but he only has 23 combined rushing yards thus far so we should get after him in the pocket without having to worry too much about him taking off. Also, for all their relative success on offense so far, the WFT have been woeful on third downs through the first two games (7/23), ranking last in the NFL. We need to continue to create negative plays on defense, get them behind the chains, and force them into third-and-long situations. On Special Teams- Dustin Hopkins (former Bills draft pick) has made 84% of his career field goal attempts and is an average NFL kicker. Tress Way is an excellent punter who helps flip the field for the WFT effectively while DeAndre Carter has bounced around a bit and is an average but steady returner both on kicks and punts. Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Can't wait for Sunday! All the best and Go Bills!

100% right, that's my bad haha...hopefully it just means that the start-of-the-art training and wellness facilities the Bills invested in are keeping everyone in the best possible shape.

Great post as always man! I highlighted two things you wrote above that jumped out the most to me: Epenesa/Groot/Youth on the Defensive Line- aside from Josh and the passing offense maintaining or exceeding its success in 2020, the pass rush and development of the younger defensive line players is the number one driver to the Bills beating the Chiefs and potentially winning a Super Bowl in my opinion. Early days, but it's been awesome to watch these guys and I'd add Ed Oliver here too...he's been outstanding. Becoming the Miami Dolphins' White Whale- unreal to be on the other side of this type of equation after so many years of losing to the Patriots. It would have been hard to believe just a few years ago that we could be so dominant over a division rival like this...we truly seem to have their number despite their attempts to reconstruct their roster to beat us. Go Bills!

Yeah this is massive...two games in, we might be healthier now than when the season began whereas it seems like there have been a ton of brutal long-term injuries around the league.

Happy we don't have to face Fitzmagic (and more significantly, Curtis Samuel)...Gibson and McLaurin are very underrated playmakers though (and YAC threats) and Heineke hasn't looked out of his depth so far. As others have said though and having watched his games so far, he seems like the kind of QB McDermott and the defense usually dominate. I'm glad we have 1.5 games of tape on him now too. On offense, let's help out Darryl Williams with a TE or RB and mix in some max protect for the deeper passes. I think Washington's LBs and DBs are the weak link of their entire team...if we can mitigate their defensive line's impact and keep Josh clean, I think we see the offense get back to 2020 form.

Healthy scratch as far as I can tell...did a quick Google search earlier as I had the same question and there's already plenty of Dolphins articles asking whether he's a bust or it's time to panic. He was a raw player coming out of college so his rookie year was predictably not great, but then he was given a lot of first team reps in training camp this year with their injuries and got roasted apparently. Early days and they deserve another couple years to develop, but Miami's return on the massive draft capital they had in 2020 is looking shaky. Raekwon Davis looks like he'll be a stud, but the jury is out on Tua, Austin Jackson, Igbinoghene, Brandon Jones, Robert Hunt, and the others.

Thanks man! A lot of good points here...I think the expected demise of the Steelers may not happen this year. Their offense (despite having some solid skill players) will likely be average, but that's enough to win them a lot of games if their defense can stay healthy and play at the level we saw. I wouldn't go as far as saying the Dolphins lucked out against the Pats, but I know what you mean...the Pats were the better team for long stretches of the game and the stats back that up, but they were hurt by costly turnovers and inefficient offense in the red zone. The Dolphins just played a solid, risk-averse type of game where they took the easy yards on offense and didn't give up the big play on defense. While they didn't really impress me on tape, they probably did deserve to win. Getting back to the Bills, I completely agree on our defense...thought the first half in particular was reminiscent of the stellar 2019 defense. Of all the players we have on that side of the ball, having Ed Oliver and Tremaine Edmunds take that next step in their development is the most important factor to the defense's improvement and they both played excellent against Pittsburgh. I also agree that we need to see their endurance improve a bit and for the defense to maintain that level for a full sixty minutes. The offensive line was my biggest concern from that game and I'm anxious to see their performance against a solid but not elite Miami defensive line. I am much more confident in Josh playing better and getting back to that near MVP level we saw in 2020. Great discussion points, it's always a bit therapeutic for me to hash these things out with everyone here after a loss. Hopefully we can clean up the mistakes that cost us last week and get the win this weekend! Tomorrow afternoon can't get here soon enough, Go Bills!

Just announced that Will Fuller is out for Sunday's game due to a personal issue. Big break for the Bills, one less speed guy to worry about. Hopefully means we can give more attention to Waddle.

Wanted to share one of the observations that Joe Marino made on the Locked On Bills podcast this week... He made the point that it was easy to watch Josh Allen's play against Pittsburgh in Week 1 and feel disappointed and start to panic. However, if you go back and look at the box score of our 2020 matchup with the Steelers, that game and Josh's performance were nearly identical. The difference was that we got the defensive/ST TD in that game with the Taron Johnson pick six rather than the other way around this time (blocked punt TD). The 2020 game was just one game in the middle of an otherwise near MVP season whereas the opening game of a new season after the big contract and the MVP hype just hit us all different. I'd also argue that our line figured out how to deal with Heyward and Watt in the second half of that 2020 contest which didn't happen on Sunday, but that's another story. Marino's point was that Josh is the same player and we shouldn't change our expectations or worry too much about Josh's game this past week...fully expecting him to go out and squish the fish like he always does!

No worries man, appreciate it! Fingers crossed for us all on Sunday, big game!

Yeah the Miami YPC stat from Week 1 is pretty wild if we can take away anything from just one game. On one hand, it shows how elusive their weapons are and how much speed Miami has added over the past few years. On the other, it means Tua completed less than 100 passing yards in the air before the catch which is really underwhelming especially since Miami didn't lean on the run game vs the Pats. I agree with you that our CBs generally do well at attacking the catch point and limiting YAC, but I am slightly cautious given that we struggled to match Devante Parker and Preston Williams' physicality in some previous match ups and we haven't seen Waddle yet who brings Tyreek Hill level speed. And to answer your offense rankings question, I typically use the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings as I think they are the most comprehensive and accurate method for grading how well a team is playing. I always copy the link near the top of my OP if you want to have a look at the whole league. According to their site, this is how they calculate their DVOA rankings: "Our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. Only the regular season is included. OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season."

Agreed, typo from my last post. Fixed now, thanks!

Well, not the start we were hoping for to say the least. I didn't think we would blow out the Steelers, but I was confident in a win. I think Sunday's game was a bit of a perfect storm for the Bills and it shows in the box score. Our offensive line looked like a huge concern and Josh never looked comfortable and was chasing the big play. However, I do take away a few positives...I thought the defense tired late, but put in a very strong effort. I was especially impressed with the run defense and thought our tackling was improved compared to 2020. Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox had solid games in what I'm hoping could be their breakout seasons. I also loved hearing that crowd noise again and I'm relieved that we didn't suffer any injuries on what was a brutal weekend for several teams. Looking ahead, we're on the road to face the Miami Dolphins in their home opener coming off their one-point win against the Pats. That was another weird box score kind of game in that New England dominated when you look at the stats, but they beat themselves with fumbles and penalties, especially in the red zone. Miami did a good job of limiting their own mistakes and allowing the Pats to implode. The Dolphins get Will Fuller back this week, but lost starting DT Raekwon Davis to the IR which should affect their run defense. Same as the previous weeks/seasons, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Dolphins' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful: ***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics*** https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings ***take these with a huge grain of salt since it has only been one week!*** Just a quick note that this post for our Week 2 opponent will be a bit different/shorter than the usual format given that we only have the opening game to go on so far (as the season progresses, I will continue to look at the opponent's three previous games as usual). September 12th- Week 1 Win Away to the New England Patriots (the Pats (current record: 0-1) have the 18th ranked offense, 16th ranked defense, and 22nd ranked special teams) by a score of 17-16: Tua Tagovailoa- 16/27 for 202 yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, and 1 INT. An up-and-down performance from the second year signal caller. Tua brought the Dolphins right down the field on their first drive and executed an RPO to perfection, scoring easily from three yards out after the LBs bit down on the RB. Tua mostly took what the defense gave him throughout the contest and threw to his WRs and RBs underneath, but he did launch a nice looking deep ball to Waddle to set up a FG late in the first half and another to Parker later on with excellent ball placement. Interestingly, more than half of his passing yards were gained by his receivers after the catch (TACKLING!!!). However, Tagovailoa threw running to his right on one play and the ball went straight to Devin McCourty who dropped a sure INT. More crucially, he made a really ill-advised decision throwing the ball up for grabs into a crowd and was picked off by Jonathan Jones in the fourth quarter. Miami were lucky that this gaffe did not come back to cost them the game and Tua's decision-making is still poor at times. His arsenal of offensive weapons is night and day compared to last year with the additions of Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller replacing the below average options that played last season such as Malcolm Perry and Lynn Bowden Jr. The catch is that their offensive line remains a bottom half of the league group that might be the largest in the NFL, but lacks much experience or talent. Tua was only sacked twice, but was under pressure on a significant number of snaps, forced to backpedal or move sideways as the Pats defensive line was winning the LoS battle. He just isn't as mobile as I think you want a modern day QB to be (4 carries for 1 yard). Rookie LT Liam Eichenburg was absolutely run over by Josh Uche on a first half sack and the guy he replaced Austin Jackson is coming off a bout with COVID. It sounds obvious, but Tua is most successful when he is kept clean and gets the ball out in 2.5 seconds or less (like most NFL QBs). The main difference is how far his performance declines when he is pressured and/or forced off of his first read. Miami's co-offensive coordinators ran more play action in this game than I remembered from their scheme in 2020. Dolphins Running Game- Myles Gaskin (49 yards and 5.4 YPC as well as 5 catches for 27 yards) isn't the biggest or fastest back you'll see on tape, but he's a solid RB in most facets of the game (pass blocking may not be his strong suit). Gaskin does a good job of making the first man miss and broke a big gainer between the LT and LG on Miami's first drive. Gaskin is also a capable receiving back and seems like the safety valve for Tua. Malcolm Brown (16 yards and 3.2 YPC) came in to play QB in their goal line Wildcat formation and converted the first down, but was otherwise ineffective. Devante Parker (4 catches for 81 yards)- Had success separating from the Pats DBs on crossing routes and Miami kept going back to that play whenever they really needed a first down (something to watch for!). Used his big frame and long arms well to bring in a 30 yard catch over JC Jackson as well. Jaylen Waddle (4 catches for 61 yards and 1 TD)- Dropped his first target on a key third down play. He rebounded with a 35 yard catch over the top of Jonathan Jones which led to a Miami FG before HT and then scored a TD beating Kyle Dugger to the edge with his speed on a simple pre-snap flat route. He didn't have the biggest game stat-wise, but I think he will be a star sooner rather than later. Albert Wilson (finally healthy!) and Jakeem Grant- both players finished without a catch. I'm anxious about the speed that they provide in addition to Waddle and Fuller, but they didn't appear to be a big part of what Miami wanted to do on offense. Mike Gesicki (2 targets, 0 receptions for 0 yards)- Possibly the most shocking stat line even in a weird box score overall. NE clearly made an effort to take him out of the game, but I didn't even really see Tua look his way. Miami has 5 TEs rostered currently and Durham Smythe had the only reception from the group. Dolphins Run Defense- NE seemed to have their most success running between the guards in this game, especially after Davis was injured. Damien Harris got the vast majority of the carries (100 yards and 4.3 YPC) and helped take some of the pressure off of Jones and the passing game. Jerome Baker was very active leading the team with nine tackles. With the game on the line and the Pats inside the ten yard line, Xavien Howard was able to force a second Rhamondre Stevenson fumble to ice the game. Huge play from a player with some notorious contract negotiations this offseason. Dolphins Pass Defense- A surprising rollercoaster performance from this usually strong unit. On one hand, they were stingy in the red zone and only gave up 16 points on the road. But for most of the day, Mac Jones (29/39 for 281 yards and 1 TD) looked pretty comfortable in the pocket in his NFL debut and they didn't have a sack or INT. They did force four fumbles though, clearly something they focus on in practice. Van Ginkel and Christian Wilkins forced a Mac Jones fumble on New England's first drive that Jonnu Smith somehow recovered (he was only in that position because he whiffed so badly on his block) and Eric Rowe forced a fumble on an earlier Rhamondre Stevenson catch that the Dolphins recovered at midfield. Jacobi Meyers seemed to be a major focus of the NE offense despite all the FA weapons they brought in and he was open underneath a lot. Emmanuel Ogbah executed a great bull rush and batted down a third down pass from Mac Jones to kill a first half drive. Byron Jones allowed Nelson Agholor's TD catch in his zone before halftime. As the game went on, it seemed like the Miami defense tired and the Patriots passing game was more effective as their TEs got involved. Van Ginkel missed a tackle and Jonnu Smith was able to take a short pass down the sideline for 25+ yards. It's notable that NE was able to move the ball and sustain drives (11/16 on third down), but the Dolphins defense made enough splash plays in this game and limited their points allowed. The Dolphins do a great job most weeks of confusing the opposing QB and forcing turnovers with their amoeba-type defense so you never know who is rushing and who is dropping into coverage. However, Miami sacked Jones zero times and failed to get consistent pressure. Rooke 1st rounder Jaelin Phillips was pretty invisible so hopefully that continues. Miscellaneous- The Patriots lost Trent Brown in the first quarter which could have made their offensive game plan less effective. The Dolphins used Jacoby Brissett on certain short yardage packages and QB sneaks. Miami averaged 5.0 yards per play which underlines the lack of many explosive plays from Tua and the offense. Miami committed 5 penalties for 28 yards. Sunday September 19th Preview- Week 2 Miami Dolphins (current record: 1-0, have the 14th ranked offense, 10th ranked defense, and 8th ranked special teams) vs the Buffalo Bills (current record: 0-1, have the 27th ranked offense, 8th ranked defense, and 28th ranked special teams) Bills On Offense- It's important for Josh (and Daboll!) to get back to what made him great in 2020 and not try to play hero ball. We have an outstanding record against what is a tricky amoeba style defense for most other opponents. Miami will switch between three and four man fronts as well as alternating man and zone coverages on the back end. Miami have some good players like Christian Wilkins and Emmanuel Ogbah in their front seven, but there's no one on the level of Cam Heyward and TJ Watt in that group and I expect the offensive line to have a bounce back performance (if they don't, I will be officially concerned). The strength of the Miami defense is their secondary especially Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the outside. Then they have intelligent, steady veteran safeties in Eric Rowe and Jason McCourty (an upgrade over Brice McCain in 2020) with rookie 2nd rounder Jevon Holland getting snaps in some three safety looks as well. It will be important for the Bills to sustain drives and keep our defense rested in the Florida heat, maybe we can even tire their defense out if we play the way we're supposed to. Miami's defense thrives on TFLs and playing the down-and-distance game so staying on schedule and taking the easy completions/yards is big this week. Miami isn't especially quick on defense and I think they can be vulnerable in the wider areas of the field. And as we have seen in past matchups, I like our WRs against their DBs in man coverage if our offensive line can keep Josh clean. Bills On Defense- If the Bills can get pressure with four rushers and/or force Tua to go through his progressions and hang onto the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, Miami should be in for a long day on offense. Our secondary needs to play physical against the likes of Parker and Williams who are powerful threats at the catch point which we have struggled with in the past (Levi Wallace is a concern here). Miami also have added the elite speed of Waddle and Fuller, we don't have anyone that can match them one-on-one so we likely need to bracket them over the top where possible. If Miami wants to get the ball out quickly, we need to get interior pressure and get hands up to disrupt passing lanes. Lastly, the Bills need to take the football away and tackle well to prevent YAC. One of the Bills strengths is not giving up the big play and forcing teams to dink-and-dunk and I think that will force this Dolphins offense to become rather predictable if we execute well on Sunday. On Special Teams- Jason Sanders is probably the second best kicker in the NFL behind Justin Tucker, he's pretty automatic. Michael Palardy is an average punter that the Panthers moved on from. Jakeem Grant is a weapon we need to handle with care on returns, but he can be a liability with his ball security at times. Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Can't wait for Sunday! All the best and Go Bills!

Congrats on the birth of your son! In addition to the Bills, the Packers, Titans, Colts, Ravens, and Browns all won 11+ games last year and then lost in Week 1 of 2021. Important to remember that there are a lot of other fanbases feeling the same way as us (or worse if you're a Titans fan!).

I'd be thrilled no matter where the games were played! Just get the trophy back to Buffalo for the parade (picturing that scene in Bruce Almighty when the Sabres won the Stanley Cup lol)!

I like our track record against Miami and think we kind of ran into the perfect storm yesterday. Give me the Bills to win by 10 on Sunday! Another sliver of hope for anyone that's looking for some: as far as we know, we escaped Week 1 without any notable injuries. Seems like it was an absolutely brutal week injury-wise for a lot of teams. Jason Verrett, Raheem Mostert, Braden Smith, Mekhi Becton, Jerry Jeudy, Lamarcus Joyner, Trent Brown, Marcus Davenport, Jeff Okudah, Marshon Lattimore...mostly longer-term injuries as well. For Week 3, Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel are already on IR...that defense is scary, but their offense will be really short-handed without those guys.

Great write-up as always @Virgil, always look forward to these after the game win or lose. Kyle Brandt on GMF likes to say, 'Week 1 is a liar' and I tend to agree. It was really disappointing to lose yesterday, but it was great to see the defense look more like the 2019 version (Oliver was everywhere, Addison looked rejuvenated, Groot had a solid start to his career, Edmunds/Milano/Taron Johnson with really strong games) and between the two sides of the ball, I'm more optimistic that our offense can figure it out with all the talent we have. If we had lost this game and the offense was above-average, but the defense struggled to stop Pittsburgh on the ground and couldn't affect Roethlisberger at all, I think I'd feel a lot worse today. If our defense can play that way all season, we should win a lot of games and be a genuine contender this season. A lot to clean up, but I trust Josh and the coaching staff to put an uncharacteristically poor game behind them and play like we know they can going forward.

Cheers! Yeah Freiermuth looked like a stud against the Lions a few weeks ago. I'd trust our guys to cover him better than Detroit did, but still I like his physicality and athleticism a lot. On the bolded part above, I think we meant the same thing on Terrell Edmunds. I don't rate him highly at all, I just felt he's gotten an overrated reputation as he's made the occasional highlight-worthy play which has covered up a lot of sub-par performances. Edmunds is at his best the closer he is to the LoS and can help in the run game, but he can't hold up in coverage. So again think we agree there, my wording made him sound better than I meant it to! I think you can go right down the list and feel pretty good that our WRs #1-7 are better than every CB on the Steelers that would be lining up across from them.