LEBills
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Posts posted by LEBills
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9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
ML Football isn't always the most reliable source, just throwing that out there.
If true we've brought him and Benson in for a visit. Sounds like we will target a power RB on day three which I'm fine with.
Let’s go! Don’t let the 4.7 40 fool ya-
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1 hour ago, DCOrange said:
Jermaine Burton is next up for Matt Harmon...looks like his profile will be posted today or tomorrow. The data is pretty good though. 3rd best success rate against man in the draft class, though he is tied with Nabers for 3rd worst against zone. 3rd best against press coverage as well and I know his hands are considered to be very good. Says based purely on film and his data, Burton would be a 1st round pick. Maybe bumped down to early 2nd round based on his off-field issues.
The bolded is so interesting to me because Nabers crushed zone in YPRR (4.5) and Burton was at 3.2 YPRR vs Zone. Both were markedly worse in yprr vs man.
Is it just that the QBs are throw them better balls in zone coverage, and struggling to get them balls in good position for bigger plays against tighter man coverages? And do big plays vs zone mask some of the down by down poor separation vs zone for Nabers and Burton?
Thanks again for posting
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Just now, gonzo1105 said:
Yup also a good call on Devonshire have to assume Pitt is since PSU was a couple years agoYea I believe it’s Pitt, SU and PSU that are our local schools but I can’t find anything to verify that
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2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:
Does he technically count because he’s a FA not a draft prospect?
He isn’t a FA, he is draft eligible this year.Devonshire may not count as I believe Pitt is considered a local school for the Bills
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3 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:
So running down the list:
1. Marshawn Kneeland DT WMU
2. Khristian Boyd DT UNI
3. MJ Devonshire CB Pitt
4. Tez Walker WR UNC
5. Trey Benson RB FSU
6. Brian Thomas Jr. WR LSU
7. Troy Franklin WR Oregon
8. Ryan Flournoy WR SEMU
9. Jordan Morgan OT Arizona
10. Xavier Worthy WR Texas
11. Maason Smith DT LSU
12. Andru Phillips CB Kentucky
13. Keon Coleman WR FSU
14. Laiatu Latu DE UCLA
15. Cooper DeJean CB/S Iowa
16. Ruke Orhorhoro DT Clemson
Is there anyone I’ve missed for top 30s? Looks like we know about half of our visits so far so 14 more guys to go.
Quantez Stiggers was a 30 too-
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Private workout with McMillan
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Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State - Cardinals
Rome Odunze, Washington - Giants
Ladd McConkey, Georgia - Chargers
Brian Thomas Jr., LSU - Saints
Xavier Worthy Texas-Dolphins
Bonus Bills pick - Troy Franklin
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41 minutes ago, DCOrange said:
I believe Harmon will be publishing Troy Franklin's profile tomorrow. He just posted his metrics in his Discord chat. Basic gist of it:
- Average against man coverage (slightly ahead of Brian Thomas)
- Very good against zone coverage (slightly ahead of Ricky Pearsall)
- Bad against press coverage (a little better than Keon Coleman but a little worse than Xavier Worthy)
- His success rates on different route types suggest he's essentially only successful running vertical routes and curls
- One of the people in the Discord chat compared him to Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma, to which Harmon said it's not a bad comparison, but Franklin is a better route runner than Mims was.
- Going purely off of the data, my guess would be he lands around Xavier Worthy in the "Priority Round 2" tier (somewhere in the WR7-9 range).
Thanks for this, interesting how what he sees varies a lot from what the analytic based scouting sees where Franklin grades out pretty well in all these categories. I don’t know the methodologies, but I’m guessing Franklins big plays against all the coverage types may boost his analytics profile and may mask some of the route to route deficiencies Harmon sees. -
2 minutes ago, Virgil said:
Do we even know if the Bills are interested in McConkey? I'm pretty sure Leggette was a top 30 visit.
McConkey said he has met with the Bills several times. Bills met with Legette at the Senior Bowl and combine but no top 30 reported for either yet4 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:
To me the two reasons that people were upset is that Leggette and McConkey were gone at 41 and that the board was not great at 58 (which was not affected by the trade down at all.)
Yea this is it. There are some big time Legette and McConkey fans on the board for them to be gone. Franklin has his fans (me, Logic) but he is not nearly as popular. As for round 2, when you have 31 other Bills fans picking 56 players ahead of our pick, the guys bills fandom tend to like go earlier. In real life, the board will likely look much more favorable to us when 60 rolls around.-
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2 minutes ago, Roundybout said:
A first round receiver to me NEEDS to be a WR1. I don’t want a Skyy Moore or a Laquon Treadwell. That’s why I’m low on Troy Franklin, I simply don’t see him as an elite WR1 prospect.
What about him makes you think he can’t be a WR1, or at least a lesser chance than the other receivers that may be available when we are there at 28? -
18 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
WR4 in this class. People sleeping on him because of his combine. Just turned 21, improved every year in college and still has room to get better and bigger. I would be so pumped if this turns out true-
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30 minutes ago, section122 said:
Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy?
Worthy has the production and speed. Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well. Does it really just come down to height and weight?
I do have Mitchell a little higher because I think his floor is a good possession receiver as he is a good route runner. If he can tap into his athleticism his ceiling is pretty high though watching him run after the catch is painful and something I think is instinctual and may be hard for him to improve.Worthy is pretty inconsistent with his hands and routes but his highs are very high. Though I like him overall, I think he has a higher chance of being a straight bust.
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3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:
He has some similar production red flags as guys like Mitchell and Coleman while also having the age red flags of Legette (though Pearsall was at least a solid contributor prior to this season). When I broke down Coleman, I mentioned how one of the things I like about Coleman is I feel like he has a couple calling cards where he should have success right away whereas most of this draft class are more in the mold of all-around players that are pretty good in a bunch of areas; Pearsall is one of those.
- Alignment Versatility: He's lined up, and been successful, all across offensive formations. Probably projects as a flanker/slot hybrid like McConkey, but he had a lot more success against press coverage than McConkey, so there's some X receiver ability in there as well.
- Skillset Versatility: In terms of Matt Harmon's success rates vs. coverage types, Pearsall ranks in the 87th percentile against man coverage and the 69th percentile against zone. That man coverage success rate is slightly behind Rome Odunze for #1 in the class. The zone success rate is 1% behind Odunze for #1 in the class (but McConkey and MHJ are both in between them).
- Hands + Separation: He has arguably the best hands in the class and is one of the best separators in the class.
- Acing the Draft Process: Lastly, he's killed it in the lead up to the draft, and there's always a few guys like that that rise up draft boards as a result. He was one of the standouts at the Senior Bowl and was arguably the most surprisingly great Combine performer (though I'd personally go with AD Mitchell there). While his film is littered with examples of him getting in and out of breaks without having to slow down and also examples of him elevating to grab passes that a lot of other receivers could not reach, people questioned his athleticism some, and then he tested as one of the best athletes in the class.
For me personally, he ended up as my #10 WR in the class. I'd take him in the 2nd round but he's not a real consideration at #28 for me.
Wondering if you are seeing data I haven’t found yet on this part? For both Pearsall and McConkey, what I have found is they didn’t face press man very much and both were not good at it in the small sample. I didn’t really see anyone get up on Pearsall in the games I watched due a lot to him being off the line and/or the D playing off coverage
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Just now, Virgil said:
What type of DT is Hall and how does he fit into this defense?
3 tech, Oliver’s backup -
16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Out of this list I'm taking Kingsley Suamataia. This draft is strong at OT so we should try to spend a top 100 pick on one if possible. He also jumps out as someone that probably could have gone 20 picks higher and no one would have batted an eye. He is raw but has great physical traits (9.35 RAS score) and doesn't have to be rushed into a starting role. Ideally he would take over for Spencer Brown in 2025, meaning we would get a comp pick back for Brown and spend his cap space on more meaningful positions. Theoretically it's a good pick for value and long term team building.
This is exactly the right idea. Him or Christian Hayes would be my choice as both help JA. Haynes has a more direct path to playing time this year but OT is a more valuable position than Guard and I’m still skeptical Brown will play well consistently going forward. Insurance for 2024 and beyond would be a good idea.-
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33 minutes ago, DCOrange said:
Matt Harmon's tiered rankings so far:
- MHJ - #1 out of 61 WRs he's graded since 2021 - Top 10 Pick
- Rome Odunze - #3 - Top 10 pick
- Malik Nabers - #8 - Top 10 pick
- Brian Thomas Jr. - #12 - Clear 1st rounder
- Ricky Pearsall - #17 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
- Ladd McConkey - #18 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
- Adonai Mitchell - #20 - Late 1st/Very Early 2nd
- Xavier Worthy - #27 - Priority Round 2
- Keon Coleman - #32 - Good Day 2 Option
- Roman Wilson - #48 - Late 3rd/Early 4th
https://receptionperception.com/matt-harmons-nfl-draft-prospect-wr-rankings-2021-2023-stacked/
I said earlier in this thread that I think Harmon is an excellent WR talent evaluator, and many other guys I respect think veryyy highly of Pearsall.
But I think it’s just way too high. In a class of a lot of skinny wide receivers, I thought Pearsall was the worst when there was contact at any point. Getting pushed on his routes, not surviving the catch through contacting the ground, getting pushed backwards on every hit, breaking very few tackles and getting the ball ripped right out of his hands after the catch. He does have some elusiveness and nice route running to be a possession/slot receiver. But I think that’s too low a ceiling to be the 5th ranked player in this awesome class. For a nearly 24 year old player, I think he is one the draft YouTubers are too high on.-
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With the 56th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Dallas Cowboys select Trey Benson, RB, FSU
Rico Dowdle is our top RB right now. Enough said. The Cowboys have their pick of the RB crop and go with the explosive, well rounded Benson. Though he runs a bit upright, we think Benson will bring a toughness our running game lacked last year without sacrificing the explosive plays in the run and pass game.
@Logic and the Bucs are now on the clock
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33 minutes ago, Brand J said:
Interesting that he’s played for 2 leagues, yet isn’t seen as an UFA, free to sign with anyone. What’s the difference between his situation and someone like Cam Wake?
Cam Wake went undrafted out of college in 2005 before playing in the CFL.Stiggers just became draft eligible (3 years out of HS).
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Gonna be in Buffalo on Monday. Was the CFLs most outstanding rookie last year. Never played college ball but had a great year in the CFL and a good week of practice at the Shrine Bowl.-
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17 minutes ago, Virgil said:
Poll will close at 2p. Still one of our fastest polls
Have any of the boards picks ever been picked by the Bills? -
1 minute ago, JerseyBills said:
Haven't the Bills took a few 1st rders they didn't have much contact with in previous years under BBB?
Pretty sure there was a couple
only one really was Kincaid last year. They had a late zoom meeting with him. My head canon is they didn’t expect him to be available at first until hearing he may slide to their range and so did that zoom with him at the last minute-
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Trade down and Franklin falling into our laps is the perfect scenario
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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:
With the 35th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Arizona "Draft Crushing" Cardinals select: Darius Robinson, DT, Maryland
We are excited to bring in someone with the kind of versatility as Darius who can play inside and out on the Edge for us. He brings a power at the point of attack and an ability to engage and shed blockers which we believe will bring immediate value to his ability to come in and compete early for us. With his stout ability against the run and his continued growth in diversifying his pass rush moves, we believe he can be an anchor upfront for us for along time and thrilled to steal him here at the top of 2nd round.
Having already added Odunze, Wiggins, and now Robinson we feel we have really added to the future of both sides of the ball. And because of our small trade downs, we still have 5 picks in the third round and 2 more in the 4th to use to really set an immediate foundation for the future of Cardinals football.
Draft Recap: TRADES
#4 - Trade 4, 138, 162 for 6, 70, 107
#27 - Trade 27 for 32 and 95
Cardinals still have a 2nd at pick 35 and now have 5 picks in the 3rd plus 2 more in the 4th to go with a couple late picks.
#6 - ROME ODUNZE, WR, WASHINGTON
#32 - NATE WIGGINS, CB, CLEMSON
#35 - DARIUS ROBINSON, DT, MARYLAND
If we were done here, this would be an A+++...but still most a 2nd round to go and we are sitting on 7 picks through rounds 3 and 4. So maybe we see each other again soon
@H2oand the Washington NoSnyders are on the clock!
Missouri not Maryland tho
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14 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
Maason is massive. A consideration with a 3rd rounder if we trade down? Or 4th if he’s there
I thought Maason would be an awesome day 3 add but with all the recent buzz I’m not sure he makes it that long.-
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Draft sleepers/red flag fallers
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Good find. Starts about 35:25 into the podcast