LEBills
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On this team, yea he is worth the $15 mil he is asking for. Probably will get 13-15 here or elsewhere in FA.
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Seems like they are weighing Super Bowl wins and appearances heavily. If that is their prerequisite to be at the top, it is what it is. McDermott should probably be 9 on this list then, though I think he is better than Sirianni, Tomlin and the Harbaughs too.
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3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
That's really sad...it is crazy how much of a toll football takes on these athletes as the years go on, even for younger guys like Brees.
He said if he wants to play catch with his kids in the backyard, he has to throw with his left hand because his right arm "no longer works".
Said he didn't want to retire but he was left no other choice and if he could still be out there playing he would be.
Also said the Dolphins medical team was spot on in their assessment of his injuries but that the surgeon gave him a window of time that allowed him to still play with the surgery he did.
https://www.marca.com/en/nfl/new-orleans-saints/2025/06/22/685733f0e2704eeea68b45bf.html
One of my favorite QBs of all time. I was in elementary school and I would watch Purdue games on Saturdays just to see him. Was so bummed when he lost the Rose Bowl.2009 Super Bowl is still probably my favorite, until the Bills finally get there’s. I know they get paid a lot of money, but it’s sad to hear people you think of as iron men have so many complications after their playing days.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Yea Cook is a good back. He isn't an elite back but he is a darn good one. I don't think any of the other backs Beane has drafted - and I include Davis in this - are starter level NFL talents. He has spent too many resources on change of pace type guys.
This is even more reason to pay Cook imo. If we let Cook walk, Beane will likely look to backfill the position early in the draft in 2026 instead of using that future pick on more costly positions. And whoever selected is no guarantee to be better than the proven commodity in Cook.Pay Cook, use the draft picks on expensive second contract positions.
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23 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
Cook is a 2 down back who is terrible in pass pro.
You don't pay big contracts to players that don't perform at the same level or the same roles as 3 down backs like Barkley or McCaffery who are the leaders at the RB position along with Henry who is one of the best backs ever.
In the game James Cook missed, Ray Davis had 150+ all purpose yards.
He is not asking for Barkley or McCaffrey money if he wants 15 mil/year. He is asking for more the second tier range.Jonathan Taylor - 6.2% of cap at signing. Benched for pass blocking problems in games.
Alvin Kamara - 4.8% of cap at signing current extension, 5 years older, a bad pass blocker
Josh Jacobs - 4.7% of the cap at signing after a disastrous 2023. A solid pass blocker.
Cook at 15 mil/year is asking for 5.4% of the cap. Cook will get close to what he is asking for on the open market (between 13 and 15 mil/year I would project) he is a good player even if pass protection is his biggest flaw.The decision will come dow to if Beane really wants to bank on Ray Davis and a rookie (or mid level free agent) in 2026 for a team that now runs at a higher percentage than it throws. Especially after we just had reliable production from Cook both in the regular season and especially in the playoffs where rookies and mid tier guys tend to fade. Since he is our best skill position player for Josh, I think resigning him would be the smart move and it also saves you the cap space or draft capital you would have to spend on a replacement.
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12 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:
Beane's drafted four running backs in the top three rounds since 2018. So it's half of his drafts so far. It's the best way to get value out of a RB as you're likely drafting a first/second round talent a full round later who will usually be more NFL ready than any other position. He's already in his prime years physically and will shortly fall off a cliff after his first contract. Go get your Cook replacement in the 2nd or 3rd round next year and hopefully get a comp pick for him. Use him the same way as Cook and then four years later and then wash, lither repeat. I do agree that Beane should take more shots in both trading for possible #1 WR's and making it more of a priority each draft.
I believe it’s been 3, though Davis was a 4th rounder.Personally I’d rather keep Cook and spend a 2nd or 3rd rounder on a position that gets paid more on their second contract. Especially since I think Cook has been the only really good RB we have hit on in those 3 or 4 picks so far.
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21 hours ago, FireChans said:
I think at this point, the Bills are not going to chase a $30M WR like DK while Josh is here.
I would have less of a problem with an elite WR making elite money, but I think where the rubber meets the road is the "middle class" of WR's, that are also inflated relative to value.
The 32nd highest paid WR is making $11M AAV. That's 4% of the cap.
I can't easily pull the numbers, but in 2018, it was definitely less. John Brown was making like 2%.
Personally, I would rather have Cook + OL and no Palmer. Just draft guys at WRs. FA WRs aren't worth it. See: Samuel, Curtis.
I agree with your OP and this. James Cook should be paid the 15 mil AAV he is looking for by the Bills.
there absolutely is an inefficiency at RB for top running backs, which Cook is one. He accounted for over 20% of our total yards last year and more than 29% of our playoff yardage. At 15 million he would only account for 5.4% of the cap.
In addition to being an exceptional producer, he also was very efficient. He averaged the 6th highest ypc in the league for RBs with the only non-rookie contract players ahead of him being Barkley and Henry. He also is underutilized as a pass catcher, where he ranked 12 overall among running backs in yards per route run (1.86) which was higher than Ty Johnson (1.73). Add to that being very young and having very low use age compared to most of these top backs, I think a second contract for him will be pretty safe and profitable.
The argument that you can easily replace running back production I do think is accurate if you have a low end starter. The other aspect to remember is that getting that replacement does cost either cap space or likely draft capital. Beane has shown a willingness to spend day 2 picks on running backs and we had to spend thirds on Singletary and Moss before finally hitting on a good player in Cook in the second round. Signing cook prevents Beane from likely using another premium pick on a replacement running back who likey won’t be as good.
As this relates to WR, the market is still very strong with 5 of the top 10 non-QB contracts being WRs. This high end has certainly caused the middle class WRs be getting more than they are worth. Shakir is an amazing contract for us that was a great job by Beane. But it is very unlikely Josh Palmer is going to live up to the 12 million/year in the fans eyes imo (the coaching staff may feel different like they did with Gabe). WRs switching teams via FA rarely do better than they did in their first stop in the modern NFL.
I do think we will see (and are starting to see) a running back-ification of the WR position. There are just so many good WRs in each draft with how much passing has taken over college football that the replaceability of mid tier WRs is easier. Teams like the Packers and Chiefs have already started the process of getting rid of their top WRs and just filling the room with highly drafted rookies. I hope we take adding draft picks to the WR room seriously going forward because that is a multi-year project to stay ahead of this curve. Probably need to draft a top 4 round WR each year going forward since I agree that we likely won’t spend a top tier contract on a WR in the foreseeable future.
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I don’t really rewatch any games, but definitely none of the playoff loses.
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It’s not too surprising. The TE position is usually not as talent-laden as other positions. And despite the production not being great, Kincaid’s advanced metrics were improved on from his rookie year and pretty solid against his peers.
Being on the field is the main issue, health is part of it, the offense is part of it, and his blocking is part of it as he was out snapped by Knox. In addition to that, he is much better at creating separation vs zone than vs man, and we faced the highest rate of man coverage in the league last year. If our outside receivers can punish man coverage this year, Kincaid will shine more.
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26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
On 1 it can be learned although there is definitely an instinctual element to it. Some guys just have that natural feel for leverage and pacing more than others. Agree on 2. On 3 and the whole point with that is it doesn't matter until it does. And when it does it matters a lot. Because when you need to win outside then you end up with a guy out there better suited to the slot.
I think Keon is probably our best X at the moment. Though I am not a big fan of Palmer and so am a bit biased. He would definitely be better in the slot I agree, but right now I think he is just going to be a very streaky player for the Bills out wide.
Like a springier Gabe Davis.Maybe one day we will have enough outside talent to let him play inside and off the line more.
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6 hours ago, folz said:
And yes, we are pretty much a split fanbase when it comes to the wide receivers. Some think we still need that true #1 and some are all on board with the "everyone eats" (spread the ball around to multiple above average weapons, rather than run through a stud). I know that is a very simplified way of looking at the two sides (some of the division is also on how good we think the guys we have are), but you know what I mean. Some think it worked last year and there should be at least slight improvement in our weapons this year (FA additions/experience for younger players), so we should be fine running it back. But, believe me, I do understand the argument for having a true #1 when it comes to crunch time in the playoffs particularly. And I agree that if you are comparing WRs only with other teams, our group does look middling. But, again, that is why I look at the weapons as a whole (including the RBs). And some might consider Cook a top-end player. Shakir too (not a #1 Wr, but a top-end slot guy). I mean Josh/Cook/Shakir isn't a bad "Big Three" (even though Shakir isn't an outside receiver or have the stats of a true #1).
Anyhow, I don't think anyone expects Palmer and Moore to take us to another level. We were happy with the level from last year (for the most part) and I think we are at least slightly improved from last year. Subtractions: Mack Hollins (66.72% snap count in 2024) and Amari Cooper (21.97% snap count in 2024). Those two players combined for 675 yards and 7 TDs last year. Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore, on their respective teams last year, combined for 70.5% snap counts (each) and 1,122 yards with 2 TDs (and Moore was working with some shoddy QB play). So, I feel pretty confident that they can at least match the production that was lost.
Overall, I just don't see Amari as a big loss. He played 8 regular season games last year (again less than 22% of the total offensive snaps) and only had more than 3 receptions twice. He had two TDs total on the year. He was injured for part of his time and acclimating to a new team/QB mid-season. In the three playoff games combined, he had 6 receptions for 41 yards and no TDs. And I loved Mack, but Palmer and Moore are both better receivers than he is (more athletically gifted). Other than that, the offense is completely the same as last year (with the addition of a true blocking TE also, albeit a rookie; and experience---Keon going into year two, Kincaid year 3, etc.), so I don't expect to see a drop-off in that area (as far as overall weapons).
As to the mistake-free, yes Josh threw the fewest interceptions of his career last year and the offense as a whole protected the ball well. I think the reasons for that are multi-fold: part of that is Josh growing as a player, part of it is having a good offensive line, part of it is having more sure-handed receivers than we had in the past, but I also think that a big part of it is how they ran the offense last year. Heavier run game (49/51 run/pass split). A lot of short, quick throws (slants, screens, outlets to RBs). Not forcing the ball to anyone. Scheming guys open. Etc. I think we will run the offense similarly, the O-line is still good, Josh is at a point in his career where he isn't going to regress, we still have sure-handed receivers (for the most part). So, again, I don't see where we should regress that much. Josh might have a few more interceptions, but I don't think he'll fall off a cliff or anything. Plus, the defense should be better (so, I don't expect a significant drop-off in number of turnovers created---plus a better defense overall should help the offense in many ways---field position, not playing from behind and having to force things, etc.; not that we had to do that a lot in 2024).
We both obviously like stats (and I'm not ignoring your yprr data), but I kind of look at it like this (obviously these are my opinions, not any type of solid data):
QB: Top 3 (I'd say #1, but...)
RBs: Top-5 unit
O-line: Top 5-7 unit
TEs: Top 10 unit
WRs: ?
I doubt any team is basically top 5/top 10 across the board in all offensive units. So, even if our receivers are middling as a unit, the overall offense is still very strong. Again, I do understand the WR issue from the other side too, and if the Bills were to get a #1 WR type (in the draft/FA/trade), I wouldn't say no thanks we don't need him, but I also think we can successfully run back the offense that we had last year (with slight improvements even). I don't think it is unrepeatable with what we have. Some may not think we got better/stronger on offense, but I don't really think anyone can argue that we got weaker (or less talented).
Obviously, at this point, most people aren't going to change their minds in this debate. And as you said, the team is pretty well set this year (we don't expect Beane to make any big move at the WR position). So, I guess we'll just have to see how the season plays out and then reassess the situation (hoping it hasn't been a big issue/achilles heel, of course).
Yes I think there are two camps. One that thinks we can recreate the same offense as last year and that is good enough, and one that thinks we need EITHER a top end WR1 or a wide receiver room with several good WRs. Beane clearly is in the former group. What gets many people upset is that to build a strong WR room, good draft capital has to be used and so it takes several years to develop a strong stable.I do think Allen/Cook/Shakir is a good enough top 3 to get a Super Bowl. But I’ll also add that anyone who believes that should be banging the table to get a deal done for Cook (I am one of those people).
I look at efficiency metrics when comparing the FAs leaving - Cooper and Hollins to the FAs coming in - Palmer and Moore because circumstance does affect volume numbers. We are taking a big hit on touchdown percentage going from Cooper (9.1%) and Hollins (16.1%) to Palmer (2.6%) and Moore (1.6%). In addition to basically a wash on yprr, Cooper (1.48) and Hollins (1.08) to Palmer (1.71) and Moore (0.93). And just scheme wise, Palmer will be a fine enough replacement for Cooper but Moore is essentially a backup for Shakir in the slot.
Im serious when I say we played mistake free football last year. Yes Josh is great, has matured and the scheme does not need him to make as many risky throws. But we also had only 2 fumbles lost and a historic low sack percentage (again thanks to Josh and the OLine). All together the 2024 Bills had the lowest negative plays (interceptions/fumbles/sacks) in the Super Bowl era. Even with how great Josh is, that simply will regress to the mean.
The Eagles, the team that won the Super Bowl, are stacked across all offensive units. Even Jalen Hurts is probably a top 10 QB when you include the rushing ability. It can be done, but it takes investment in the offense which the Bills have done in many ways, but needed to do more over the past several years at WR imo.
I do think that this team is good enough to win a Super Bowl because Josh is otherworldly. But I can’t say the offense got better over this offseason. My gripe will always be not adding WRs to the pipeline to develop via the draft (Keon is literally the only day 1 or 2 pick of Beane’s career) a truly deep above average WR room and instead filling the holes with mediocre to bad free agents.
Kincaid and Cook are going to be the key. If Kincaid can be a functional blocker, he can hopefully improve his touchdown percentage which sits as 25th in the league. TDs is basically what separates him from Laporta. Similarly, if Cook can improve as a pass blocker he can be used more on third down where he is our most efficient running back pass catcher (yes better than Ty Johnson).
If Kincaid can hit 750 yards and 8 touchdowns and Cook keep his rushing but produce his 2023 receiving stats (basically 500 more receiving yards from the two of them), then that should be enough to make up for our WR room. If Keon can be more consistent, that would help too. We can do it, but the margins are razor thin imo
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16 hours ago, folz said:
Here is where the Bills rank in both passing and rushing attempts and yards over the last 5 years:
PASSING RUSHING
YEAR Atts Yds Atts Yds
2024 26th 9th 9th 9th
2023 16th 8th 5th 7th
2022 14th 8th 20th 9th
2021 5th 9th 13th 6th
2020 11th 3rd 17th 20th
Not quite sure what to make of all of that. You can kind of see the flip in the rushing and passing attempts over the last two years, but the strange thing is that regardless of attempts, our overall ranking in yards has stayed pretty consistent over the last four years (2020 being the only outlier).
Bills passing attempts and yards last 5 years (fyi):
2024: 520 for 3,875
2023: 579 for 4,154
2022: 574 for 4,129
2021: 655 for 4,284
2020: 596 for 4,620
Yeah Elijah Moore, and to a lesser extent Curtis Samuel, are the wild cards. I'm an optimistic fan, so I still think Samuel is a really good player and Moore is probably better than he's been able to show with the circumstances he was in (and he hasn't been a slouch as it is). It's just so hard to find enough balls to go around. Which is why I find it funny when people complain about weapons for Josh. We don't have that All-Pro #1 WR, but I think we have a ton of weapons (of course, I'm probably also higher on Keon, Kincaid, and Samuel in particular than some fans at this point). But...Shakir, Palmer, Coleman, Samuel, Moore, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, Davis, and Johnson. That's 10 guys that are already proven in the league (well not sure if you would call Keon proven yet, but...). I think it's a pretty strong and solid cast overall. With the "everybody eats" mentality, it may come down to the hot hand, whose playing best at any given time (and also designing certain games for certain players based on opponents). So, for instance, if they think speed would work better against a particular defense, then maybe Moore and Samuel get more snaps than Keon and/or Palmer that particular game. And of course, there is a chance that Moore plays well and demands more playing time. But as it is right now, my guess would be that he and Samuel will be used more situationally (so will be 4th and 5th in WR targets). But who knows. It will be fun to see how they try to use everyone this season.
the reason our rushing stats were so good in 21 and 22 was Josh. He had over 760 yards each season and averaged over 6 yards per run.The reason people complain about weapons is because we don’t have a top end player. And even when you look at the efficiency stats, the receiving corp is middling. I’m not here to argue for an upgrade this year because our team is set. But if you look at our current weapons and their yprr (efficiency rather than volume stats). Shakir is by far our best player ranked 16th of all WR (just ahead of ARSB) in 2024.
Keon was 43rd, Palmer was 63rd (compared to Cooper at 67th - and Coopers 1.71 yprr with the Bills were equal to Palmers 1.71 year long yprr with the Chargers in 2024), Samuel was 84th, Moore was 110th (compared to Hollins at 90th)
Kincaid was 12th and Knox 37th out of all tight ends.
So the reason people are down on the group is that we did not really improve the weapons much. Just kinda swapped players that left for similar players. Anyone hoping that Palmer or Moore are going to take the team to a different level are going to be disappointed in my opinion.
The real hope for the offense will be with Shakir, Keon and Kincaid. As well as Keon did for yprr for the season. He was worse than Mack Hollins yprr when he returned from injury. So you hope he can improve but it was a very disappointing end to his rookie season.
Kincaid is our best hope imo as his efficiency actually improved from year one to year two. If he can stay healthy and figure out things with Josh, that is our most likely route to improvement. And the reason people want to see improvement from pass catchers is because despite our historic offense last year, we are skeptical we can be as meticulous and mistake free as 2024 and want better talent for Josh to make up any regression to the mean there.
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Hard Knocks is great, it will be better with it being the Bills. I’m excited!
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7 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
Totally fair. Just saying that his '24 production should be asterisked. Ladd definitely showed he's got legit chops. But Roman has a slanted track record with respect to passing volume/production.
Last year under Roman was Palmers second most efficient season. The year before being his best.
The lower volume role that he took on in 2023 and continued in 2024 let him be more of a down field target so you saw his aDot and YPC increase by like 50% over his first two years. He will be serviceable in the Amari Cooper/MVS role. I don’t think he is going to unlock another gear and be a top 40 receiver in yardage though.
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11 minutes ago, Rich Stadium Original said:
It has been brought up many times how relatively slow Coleman is..and accurately so. But what I do find interesting is that his numbers at the combine were virtually identical to Nacua. In fact, I think Coleman was actually a bit faster in the gauntlet drill.
So what is the difference between their games? Does Nacua have a skill set that Coleman doesn't have?
Maybe with a second more healthy season with Josh Allen will bring out aspects of his game we haven't seen yet.
Two things, Puka is a great route runner. McVay puts Puka in positions to succeed.-
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25 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:
Well, I guess it depends on how you define elite. Is it top 25? Top 50? Top 100? Or some completely different metric.
For what it’s worth, ESPN and NFL each put out a top 100 list. Base on a panel of experts or NFL players.
Mailata wasn’t on either list.
Mailata was second team All pro last year, so top 4 tackle by that standard -
1 hour ago, appoo said:
One of these are DK Metcalf. The other is AJ Brown.
It’s wildly subjective. Also Keon was a very different player pre injury (one of the 3 best rookie WRs and actually a pretty good ranking WR in general) when going by EPA (by far the most accepted and respected advanced stat around) vs post injury.
He acknowledged that, Beane acknowledged that, McDermott did…he’s 21. He’ll be good
We will see, I think he will continue to have good moments but I think he will be a streaky player. Contributor but not a star, which is fine. -
1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:
Does anyone know the criteria of "success" in this chart?
https://receptionperception.com/introduction-to-reception-perception-and-its-new-home/”A success is charted when a receiver “gets open” against the coverage. Creating separation, enough for the quarterback to have a reasonable target, is marked as a success. The only plays that are automatically given as success to the receiver are instances where a receiver is obviously held or interfered with (called or not). These plays make a big difference to an offense, and signify a receiver winning yards for his team by forcing the defensive back to hold him.”
It is subjective. Though using his stuff for a lot of years now I think he is pretty good at making that judgement.
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43 minutes ago, akcash said:
Anybody know what his 2024 reception perception looks like?
I don’t think he has done his RP yet but he probably will as the season gets closer. He discusses the signing a bit here at 19:20:
And a bit more optimistically here (fast forward past the ads to 1:45)This is him talking about Palmer’s career highest yardage 2022 season:
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2 minutes ago, balln said:
chiefs get it. Why can’t Brandon ? Let it go. We don’t need meh rotational backup DL and secondary. MULTIPLES of them
The Chiefs have such a type at WR. All the WRs they have drafted over the past 4 years have run a sub 1.5 10 yard split according to their nfl.com combine results (which is elite explosion for the position). Royals isn’t a finished product yet but as a WR3 he could be very dangerous. Would have preferred a different team to draft him.-
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3 hours ago, Figster said:
If you double the times targeted on Coleman which is almost what you have to do to get a fair comparison. For one the player targeted twice as much is given a much better opportunity to gel with the QB. In turn completion percentage will go up along with better performance route running in the NFL IMO. Big difference in size and Coleman does need to be used properly. Rookies
I also think it's interesting just by doubling the number of times Colemans targeted both players have similar production. Colemans averaging 5 yards more per reception. Mcconkey longest play 60 yards. Colemans, 64 yards
Apples and oranges...
Reception perception looks at each route run by the player and decides when the route is “won” due to separation on all routes ran rather than completion percentage on when a player was targeted. Doubling the routes gives you a greater sample size but isn’t really needed for a comparison. Also, these RPs are from their last year in college when Keon ran 404 routes vs McConkey who only ran 150 due to injury.
It is true that they are different players. McConkey game is geared more towards separation than Keon who is more about physicality. That’s why McConkeys score is much higher in the RP at most routes. McConkey did have an 86 yard touchdown in their playoff game. IMO, unless Coleman can become a better route runner to generate separation he will just be a very streaky player. His biggest plays last year were a slant where he broke a tackle and had a lot of free space to run or some scramble drill work. He has a role in an offense that way and as a weapon in the red zone, but that would be more of a WR3 type role than a leading WR.
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Just now, SoTier said:
This is just me, but I'd rather be "still somewhat deficient in our WR room" than be "somewhat deficent" on the offensive line or in the defensive backfield.
I almost always give rookies and sophomores the benefit of the doubt, especially when they've missed time due to injuries, whether they play for the Bills or another teams. You can check out my posting history if you want. I did think Peterman was trash almost from the get-go, and there are probably a few others.
The jump from college to the NFL is a big ask, and very few young players, even #1 picks, start out playing at a high level.
FTR, my comment was aimed at the continuous whining by some posters about things that cannot be changed. The draft is a crap shoot. Even for first rounders, only a handful are going to become game changers, and some are going to be busts.
In today’s NFL WRs by the end of year two now you know if they are going to be good or not, either by production or efficiency stats. For example, Shakir 2nd year he had a yprr over 2 which is very good. So he was a good player and then year 3 he just got more volume.-
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10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:
By the way, Beane knows he blew the Coleman pick. (40 4.61)
Since he made that pick, all the skill players on both sides of the ball have speed.
At WR were have added Palmer (4.52 @ 6'1 210), Moore (4.35), and Prather (4.46),
AT DB & S: Bishop (4.45), Forest (4.41), Hancock (4.42), Hairston (4.28), Strong (4.50)
Yea I doubt that. But at least we didn’t get a video this year of Beane getting excited after a WR ran a slow 40 like we got for Keon and Gabe. I’ll call that progress.-
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14 minutes ago, balln said:
I just don’t get the pick beane . It’s not gonna end up being right.
Ladd >> Coleman
Coleman will be out of the league in3-5 years
To be fair to Beane, he wanted to draft a player who could be a X Receiver and who could deal with the physicality in the playoffs that seemed to stymie Diggs.McConkey is great and would have been a better pick but he did play almost 65% of his snaps in the slot this past year (where Shakir and Kincaid would normally play).
Funny enough tho, Matt Harmon’s recommendation to get more out of Coleman is to let him line up in the slot more.
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PFF top 10 defensive lines
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
5th is pretty high, did Brandon Beane call and complain to PFF again?