Sammy Watkins' Rib
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Posts posted by Sammy Watkins' Rib
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That 92% for Patriots to win the divsion is disgusting but accurate.
14% chance for making the playoffs for us also seems about right.
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Nice fortune cookie title OP.
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Surprised to see how many people are terrified to deal a player that can't stay on the playing field. No one is saying to give him away. A team has to be willing to trade anyone if they think they will get the better of it.
Unless we trade him to the Browns, Jets or a similar team he's automatically going to a better situation in terms of a QB and team that will throw the ball to him consistently. Factoring that in, it's not likely that it will appear that we will get the better of it. And worse case we really get shafted if he ends up playing to his top 5 draft status.
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Pretty sure it was Stevie Johnson with Fitz (82, 76 and 79 catches with over 1000 yards in 2010-2012) and the two of them just appeared to have good chemistry and Fitz seemed to understand where Stevie would find space, It is amazing that when a WR manages to stay healthy,even he does not work that hard on it during offseason, he is able to get a lot of catches and yards.
Really Sammy should hit those numbers even if he misses 3 or 4 games.
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Except that we actually saw proof with Gilmore. We saw him perform at a top 10 CB level for two seasons. With Watkins it's purely based on flashes. The qualifier with Gilmore is simply putting him in the proper defense. There are multiple qualifiers with Sammy:
- needs to be in the right offense
- needs to have a quality QB
- needs to stay healthy
The first two I won't argue as they're very reasonable. But the last one is a big problem. Watkins hasn't stayed healthy even with a lesser workload so I'm not banking on him staying healthy with more targets every game. I'm not saying that it's not possible - especially if his foot is finally fixed (I don't have that info) - and I'm not saying I wouldn't have picked up his option (I would have unless his foot is still in bad shape), but I am saying that his health in your scenario is a huge "if" and that any predictions about how good he can be are dependent on that.
There have been some horrible misuses of players over the years. Mostly overpaying guys who don't fit an offense or defense or are underutilized. Mike Wallace in Miami. Great one trick pony - going deep - got paid large to be put in a timing offense with a short to intermediate range QB. Fail. Albert Haynesworth proves his worth as a penetrating 1-gap DL and gets paid a ton by Washington to eat up space as a 2-gap NT. WTF? Rex Ryan gets hired to improve an attacking top 5 defense that plays press zone and proceeds to make them a passive read and react squad with CBs on islands. The list goes on and on. Many situations have been worse than Sammy's, including Gilmore's. Heck, almost everyone on the defense the last two seasons had it worse than Sammy.
Agree with some of your points regarding Gilmore and the defenses failures. But I think with regards to Watkins you are greatly under estimating how important the offensive philosophy and QB are for a WR. Is there a greater example in NFL history than Randy Moss in Oakland?
And I think we have seen a bit more than just flashes from Watkins. His final six games of the 2015 season he played at a top 10 level if not top 5 for his position. No coincidence, he saw double digit targets in four out of those final six games. Zero double digit targets in the previous games he played in that season. (He was at 5 targets when he left at the half of the Bengals game and only two targets in the Miami game).
Yes health is a big concern but I'm actually more worried about his supporting cast.
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The trade tracker says #27 and a 2018 first. Weird.
And what did we start that day off with? The #10 right? So how many 1st round picks did we net? Only one. This is pretty standard. I am not mad at all that we only netted one first round pick in the deal.
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When Gilmore was being properly utilized he produced at a top 10 CB level - and he did so consistently. That's pretty damn good. Watson has shown flashes of being a dominant WR, but he has not done so consistently and he sure hasn't PRODUCED at the level of a top WR. Injuries have obviously been a factor. But that's the rub with Watson. His production has not matched his talent. Gilmore's did before Rex put him on an island.
Watkins wins the properly utilized argument every time. Is there any player over the last three years that even comes close to not being utilized properly as much as Watkins?
1. Run oriented team
2. Flawed QBs throwing him the ball (EJ, Orton and Taylor).
I can't believe we only got 1 first for pick 10 this year. Fire McDermott.
Why would you expect more than 1?
You swap first and you receive an extra one the next year. That is how it always works with the exception of just moving 2 or 3 spots.
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My ENTIRE point of even entering this tired subject was because the quote cited in the OP said the Bills TRADED two first round picks. That is simply not true because you have to consider that we RECEIVED a first round pick as well. Saying we "used" two first rounders is different that saying we "traded" two first rounders. And THAT's what the quote in the OP said.
This is 100% correct. Nobody sasy we traded one first round pick for Marcel Dareus. We simply selected him with the pick we already possesed.
So in the Watkins deal we traded one first and a fourth. Not two firsts. You absolutely have to factor in the compensation you receive into the equation.
Well no not really. We still used 3 picks. Using a pick does cost you a pick. It costs you the pick you use. I know what you are saying and its just a different mindset from my own, but your mindset is that Marcel Dareus didn't cost anything. We got him for free. My mind set is Dareus cost us a first round pick.... to use a different example.
I agree. But unless it starts becoming the norm to say a team traded their first round pick to make their selection then it doesn't seem equally fair to say that we traded two first and a fourth for Sammy Watkins. Being fair would be saying we traded a first and a fourth.
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but does he want to be a buffalo bill? if the answer is yes, then do what it takes (within reason) to keep him. if not, then get the best possible value while you can.
Given the fact that we didn't pick up the option on him I wouldn't be surprised at all if his mind is drifting off to other possibilities. That would be expected from any player at this point. Just bad management once again.
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Yeah, I don't see it happening either, but my point is there is always a price, and the QB is the most important piece. Again, I do LOVE what Sammy can bring to the table!
But at the same time, when does anyone EVER say we traded our first round pick for Shaq Lawson, or we traded our first round pick for Marcel Dareus? Never. You say we took Shaq with our first round pick or we took Dareus with our first round pick.
So techinically in Sammy's case it does make sense to say we traded a first and a fourth to take Sammy with our first round pick. At least that is the way I see since the 4th overall is better than the 8th overall. Now, if we moved back from 8th to 12th (downgrading our first pick) and also gave up another 1st and 4th round picks then it would make a little more sense.
But I'm fine with however anyone wants to say it really.
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Sunday, Sept 10 - Bills vs. Jets WIN
Sunday, Sept 17 - Bills @ Panthers WIN
Sunday, Sept. 24 - Bills vs. Broncos WIN
Sunday, Oct 1 - Bills @ Falcons LOSS
Sunday, Oct 8 - Bills @ Bengals WIN
Sunday, Oct 22 - Bills vs. Buccaneers WIN
Sunday, Oct 29 - Bills vs. Raiders LOSS
Thursday, Nov 2 - Bills @ Jets LOSS
Sunday, Nov 12 - Bills vs. Saints LOSS
Sunday, Nov 19 - Bills @ Chargers LOSS
Sunday, Nov 26 - Bills @ Chefs LOSS
Sunday, Dec 3 - Bills vs. Patriots* LOSS
Sunday, Dec 10 - Bills vs. Colts WIN
Sunday, Dec 17 - Bills vs Fish WIN
Sunday, Dec 24 - Bills @ Patriots* LOSS
Sunday, Dec 31 - Bills @ Fish WIN
8-8 sounds about right
This would be so depressing. So it will likely happen.
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nobody admires them gifted a 5-1
the article explained the reasons for the ranking, number of teams expected to achieve 10 wins was huge, the AFC East was the only one with 1.
Pretty iffy IMO that the AFC West would have more than 1. Basically that means you think the Cardinals are a lock for 10 wins. Maybe a couple years ago that was true.
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It's the worst if we are talking about it not being competitve for the division title. But the AFC South is still the worst overall until it proves otherwise. I still like the Bills and Miami over all four of the teams in that division. Not saying Buffalo and Miami would go a combined 8-0 against them but i do think 5-3 is probable. Throw in the Pats and you have a much better division.
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Tyrod was a train wreck against Oakland lol. Defense held raiders down for 3 quarters and tyrod couldn't get a first down.
3 and out 3 straight times then 4 and fumble. He was why we lost.
That's half true. Both were to blame. Tyrod had arguably his best 1st Quarter of his career in that game. The other quarter and half he didn't do much but also didn't need to do much as we still built a 15 point lead. The final quarter and a half he was dreadful as was the defense.
IIRC, the Raiders offense couldn't get out of their way in the first quarter of that game. Dropped pass after dropped pass and a couple boneheaded penalties. So it wasn't so much the defense holding the Raiders down it was the Raiders holding back the Raiders.
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By the time we played them, yes, they were in a tailspin. But at this time last year, they were an up & comer with a great DLine. This is to the point of the thread. We really don't know in the off season what teams will be dynamic and who will flop -with just a couple exceptions..
Actually, if anything I thought the Rams were a better team the week before we played them then I did prior to the season starting. They had managed an upset of the Seahawks and had a winning record going into the game. But even then, their offense was so bad, dead last by a good margin, that I was expecting a win still going into the game.
Better examples are the Cardinals and Patriots.
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I would make a move to get AJ McCarron before I gave a injured Bridgewater a chance.
Yep. Just say no to a QB who's body type is one that nearly had his career completely derailed due to a non-contact injury. Not to mention he was extremely average at best up to that point anyway.
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Could be, but in football, what is 5 minutes worth? 7 plays? I dunno just seems the NFL could figure out some other alternatives instead of cutting the clock by 5 minutes.
I also envision more ties if they do that. I don't think anybody anywhere wants more ties.
I agree nobody wants more ties. But at the same time, a few more ties every season isn't going to be a deal breaker from a fans perspective. This change must be in the name of player safety, it undoubtedly lessens short and long term injury risk, just at a really small level and only in special circumstances.
Player safety? Wasn't Goodell pushing for an 18 game season not too long ago?
Yeah but that was before all the concussion stuff came to the forefront though. Is Goodell not allowed to change directions along with public and player opinion? I don't understand the criticism on this point.
Next thing that needs to change is either discontinue the Thursday night games or, probably better yet for all parties, add a second bye week and have every team play the Thursday game after one of their bye weeks. This would also extend the season by one more week giving the league one more week of prime-time games to sell to the networks.
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He was hardly a bad pick at the time; he was widely considered one of the best players in that class.
I'll admit that there were a vocal minority of us that wanted JJ Watt, but most folks thought Cam/Von Miller/Dareus/AJ Green were the elites in that class.
Also, Dareus was a wrecking ball in '13 and '14. I don't excuse his off-field behavior, but the fact that Rex's defense adversely affected every player along the defensive front can hardly be ignored here.
He wasn't too bad in '15 either. Just the entire defense stunk. But in '15 he was a major contributor in the final two minutes of two games we won. The Titans and final Jets game. He got to both Mariota and Fitz hitting there arm in mid-throw and causing interceptions in both instances. They don't go down as sacks but those plays were more valuable then an actual sack.
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No problem with this at all. Time to end excuses and dominate. next suspension is 10 games.
NFL needs to cut the BS and just make it 16 games for the next suspension. He already had a 1 game, then a 4 game. A player shouldn't need anymore of a wake up call than that.
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nor the Rams in LA.
We absolutely were supposed to beat the Rams on paper. That was no upset.
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I'm looking forward to Taylor getting a third season under his belt as our starter. It should hopefully serve as the "tie breaker" in deciding if we hang onto Taylor or not as our starter.
If he plays close to or worse than his 2016 performance then it's an easy move on. But if he plays close to or even better than his 2015 season then it is likely an easy decision to keep him. Hopefully his 2017 season isn't split down the middle between the two.
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Moorman is the only player we have had (for a long period of time) in the drought that was top 3 at his position. Moorman is the only one I would put on there. Love Fred. But they tried to replace him every single offseason. And Fred was no where near an elite RB. Kyle is a great story, very nice player and extremely hard worker. Maybe some day for kyle.
He was in 2012 or which ever season that was when he broke his leg. He was having an all-pro season up to that point.
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I'm a big Taylor fan. But knocking guys like Brady and Ryan because they have proven the ability to make quick reads and throws giving their receivers wide open running lanes to pick up big yardage is foolish. Can Taylor and this offense do that? It's yet to be seen. Taylor does things well in his own way. But I would be lying if I were to say I didn't also wish he could pick up some of that quick passing ability that Brady and Ryan show.
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I don't buy the methodology I am afraid. Why shouldn't a Quarterback who throws a perfect 2 or 3 or 4 yard pass to a guy who can catch it in running without breaking stride and take advantage of a hole in the defence to go the distance get credit for that. Brady and Matt Ryan in particular do that an awful lot and it is the absolute perfect placement on those shallow crossers etc that often creates the YAC.
100% agree. Sure we don't really run that quick passing system. But is that because we choose not to from the coaching level or because our QB is incapable of running that kind of system.
ESPN's Burke Projects the Bills' Playoff Probability @ 14.5%
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Two teams you say are not good or were awful last year both finsihed 9-7. What does that make us? We could easily lose to the Bucs or Broncos. God help us if we lose to the Jets week 1.