The Frankish Reich
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Posts posted by The Frankish Reich
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Of all the things to bring up today...jeeezzz! The organization is a freaking mess and you want to trade Sammy Watkins.
The guy with the Black Swan avatar didn't read the book!
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who can you get to play QB with a great trading chip like Sammy?
Your question is wrong. The correct questions are:
1. Can we make the playoffs and be competitive in them over the next 2 seasons with Sammy at WR and Manuel or Matt Moore at QB?
2. Can we make the playoffs and be competitive in them over the next 2 seasons without Sammy at WR but with someone like Foles, or the 3rd best QB in the draft, or even Winston (if he drops) at QB?
I think the answer is clearly "no" to Q.1, and very possibly "yes" to Q.2.
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I'm just saying think outside the box. Philly never got over losing DeSean Jackson. Sammy for Foles + their 1st? Doesn't sound outrageous. + their 2nd instead? Sounds like a good deal for both. Too much for Foles? Again, who else? Chase Daniel is making Kyle Orton money as Alex Smith's backup. Matt Flynn got two huge deals. QBs are always more valuable than people realize. The Foles for a 5th rounder talk strikes me as ridiculous. And no, I'm not just focused on Foles, it's just an example.
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Without using a great trading chip like Sammy, who can you get to play QB?
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I'm confused. Are you saying trade Watkins for Shaub or Moore? Or just trade Watkins for any pick you can get, even if it's just a 5th?
Of course not. But dangle him out there and see what you might get, either draft pick wise (obviously a top 15 or so) or current NFL QB + a 2nd rounder, etc.
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My god. It's so obvious! Just get someone with the 9th pick or higher to trade with you!
Or get Matt Schaub or Matt Moore to deliver the ball to your star receiver. Which seems to be where we're headed.
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I find it fascinating how organizations (and fans) think. A few questions to clarify what I mean:
1. If you're the Vikings, would you trade Bridgewater for Sammy? I think we all agree that the answer is "of course not."
2. Some fans bemoan the trading up to draft Sammy rather than taking a QB with our initial pick, or even trading down to take a QB later. The same fans agree that Sammy had a very good rookie season (particularly given the fact that he didn't exactly have great QB play feeding him), and that his star is on the rise. Yet they never consider trading Sammy for what we need more: a QB, or the chance to draft a QB.
This is what economists call the "endowment effect." You tend to overvalue what you have, and undervalue what you could get.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endowment_effect
This is something some great sports GMs like Billy Beane do not run afoul of. Think you need a pitcher to finally make it to a World Series? Go get Lester and Samardzija! That doesn't work? Let Lester go, trade Samardzija, reload with some other players! If you want a QB now your best trade chip is Sammy and it's not even close. So at least consider it ... all you'd be doing is a classic Billy Beane transaction: you traded up to try to get it done in 2014, you came close, but didn't make it. Now you're stuck with no first round pick in 2015? Simply undo that by trading Sammy. No harm done. But it takes guts, which most GMs lack.
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Why on earth would we want to hire a guy who flamed out in Denver in just two seasons? Who thought he could turn Orton, and then Tebow (!) into winning NFL quarterbacks?
Well: (1) for whatever reason, the Niners and Falcons are already committed to interviewing him, but they may very well pass on him. (2) you can't deny he's been successful with the Patriots. Sure he's had Brady, but he also managed to rebuild the offense the last couple years after it was sputtering following the losses of Hernandez and Welker. (3) lots of young coaches fail and then get it right the second time around. (4) thinking you're smarter than everyone else is usually bad (it makes you do things like draft Tebow), but sometimes it's good (it makes you do things like go to Kaepernick even though Alex Smith is taking you to the playoffs again). (5) he knows the Patriots, and winning the division starts and ends with beating the Patriots. (6) he's not afraid to lie, cheat and steal to get there.
We can go several ways with the Head Coach. (I'm assuming there's no realistic Cowher/Gruden thing here.) Ultra-conservative? Just promote Schwartz. High risk, potentially high reward? Get McDaniels. In between? Hire someone else's coordinator (offensive or defensive) who's reasonably well respected, or recycle a Mike Smith. I think I'm inclined to roll the dice and bring in a bold choice, particularly a bold offense-oriented choice. The window of opportunity is right now. A conservative choice means you try to get by with a slightly more competent offensive performance, go 10-6, and hope either Brady gets hurt or, unlike this year, the wild card opens up. And then you lose in the first round. McDaniels could be a complete and total bust again, but maybe, just maybe ...
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The problem with Kubiak is that he has a very specific system on offense that would require a total overhaul. I'd rather someone who can implement a versatile scheme that adapts to different opponents.
I understand the concern, but I think a total overhaul is exactly what we need. Hackett overhauled the offense at the start of 2013 when Manuel began as a starter (rapid pace, no huddle, significant read option), then overhauled it again when Manuel wasn't ready for that, then the offense needed to adapt to an incredibly immobile QB in Orton ... and now? Unless we sign a Matt Schaub or something, I'd guess another overhaul is inevitable, and I'd like to see a guy in charge who has the chops to do that. As for defense if we lose Schwartz: we have the players on that side of the ball. Folks worried when Pettine left. No problem. Any competent defensive coordinator will lead a good defense next year.
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2 Super Bowl wins as an offensive coordinator. Yes, he had Elway (an end of career Elway), but his teams always, always, always ran the ball and blocked effectively. He would be a good choice. And as we saw with Houston, he can get the most out of quarterback like Schaub, which, unfortunately, looks like the type of quarterback we'll wind up with in 2015.
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To the OP....that was a really fine post
To me....it gave me a glimpse at what decent QB play might actually look like.....even thought it came in spurts and it sputtered towards the finish line.
It is my hope that that bills mgt has learned two things....
- Dont go into the season with young inexperienced QBs.....it is ok to have one as a backup (EJ Manuel) because the light might actually turn on with that player then and then you actually have something.....BUT you cannot go into the season relying on it......
- They were aggressive in finding QBs too late.....and pulled a aging Kyle Orton out of retirement....he was out of shape....didnt get a training camp.....and it looked like his heart was not really in it.....be aggressive EARLIER
Thanks! And I agree ... look, chances are we get another Kyle Orton since as everyone recognizes there really isn't a a first -- or even second -- tier QB on the free agent market, and the chances of us swinging a Cutler or RG3 or even Foles trade aren't very good. But whether that's a Hoyer or a Sanchez or something similar, having the guy ready to go from minicamp on probably makes the Bills marginally better again, just like Orton made them marginally better than with EJ.
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You have it all wrong.
It's not like Orton somehow swooned the Bills into signing him, and then didn't deliver on his promises.
This is not like Cutler in Chicago getting $100MM and looking like garbage.
He's some retread the Bills signed off the scrap heap. He got them through the season and wanted out.
If Orton didn't meet your expectations this season, your expectations were really out of whack.
Actually, Orton exactly hit my expectations. Nothing more, nothing less. I was all in favor of signing him and giving him the starting job. I think he proved my (not just my) point that he's probably about the 30th best QB in the world, there being 32 teams, some of which are starting young projects who will never have Orton's career. And guess where he ranked on ESPN's QBR? 27th. We can argue about the validity of that system, but this time it seems to be about right, particularly given that we had about the 27th best offense in the NFL this year. So with all sincerity, I do thank Kyle for playing, playing every snap, and playing about as well as he's capable of.
Also in the spirit of the great Bill from NYC
"Never give your love my friend, unto a foolish heart"
Indeed. But I didn't dare tread into that proprietary Bill territory ...
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In the spirit of the great Bill in NYC:
1. Thanks, Kyle, for letting management know you were hanging it up (again) after the Oakland debacle. That way your buddy EJ could get that one start in a meaningless Pats game. I understand you didn't want all the Jeter-style farewell tour stuff, but think of the fans: we never got closure, the proper opportunity to say goodbye.
2. To paraphrase another Buffalo native, Gregg Easterbrook: When you sign a QB who's just quit on his team, you're signing a QB who will quit on your team.
3. Having said that, a real, non-sarcastic thanks to Kyle for salvaging what looked like another lost season in the making. It was interesting until December 21, and there were some legitmate great moments: the surprise Detroit win with Schwartz carry-off and victory cigar, the stomping of the Jets (x2) including the Detroit Monday nighter, the Green Bay win, the miraculous Sammy and Woods catches, the Scott Chandler snow shovel TD celebration ... I'm sure I'm missing some here.
4. Kyle showed great guts, standing in there, taking the hits while waiting for his target to come open ...
5. ... until he stopped showing great guts and started showing us slidin' a yard short, turtlin' Kyle. We don't know why, but QBs take some big hits. Maybe he didn't let on that he'd suffered some injuries, or even a concussion. Maybe he started thinking again about his life after football, and all the stories we've seen about permanently damaged players. When you can't move much and you're playing behind a really bad offensive line, maybe you do this, and maybe we're wrong to blame players for doing it.
6.. Thanks, Kyle, for realizing that, and for not coming back, or worse yet, coming back and then realizing too late, in training camp, that it really is time to hang it up. Now that would've left us twisting in the wind ...
7. I will always remember the great Tell Me Why Kyle Orton Is Not the Long Term Solution thread as an example of popular fan delusions. Is it possible to unlock closed threads? Because, well, I think we have a conversation ender.
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Kansas City
Miami
Cleveland
St. Louis
New York Jets
Minnesota
Houston
Arizona
Buffalo
9 teams that have had varying degrees of success the last few years, but all of which have strong (and/or young and talented) cores at key positions. All of which are just a good QB away from being serious Super Bowl competitors. My guess is that 1 or 2 of them will develop or find that QB and take the next step. 4 or 5 (roughly half) will find or develop a competent QB and will be exactly like Kansas City under Alex Smith. Miami and Minnesota look to be headed that way, but you can never tell -- Tampa and Josh Freeman would at the same point after the 2012 season; now that seems a decade ago. And who knows, Tannehill or Bridgewater could turn out to be a lot better than Alex Smith. Arizona looked like they had QB solved for the next couple years at least; now they may be in the worst shape of any of these 9 teams. As for the rest of these clubs? I have no idea where they're going. Folks here clamor for Sam Bradford; Rams fans pray for an upgrade to Sam Bradford. The Chiefs may move on from Alex Smith; the Bills would consider him an upgrade. There's cause for optimism for Bills fans, but right we'd be kidding ourselves if we're thinking we're clearly ahead of any of these teams in the competition cycle. This was a promising season, but without a QB, I can't say next year will be better.
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I kind of wish he would retire. I think he is one of the greats, but he looks weak, old, and tired.
Cincinnati did a great job of shifting multiple times during his chicken dance. He ended up calling plays right into the waiting arms of the defense. When he threw, there was nowhere near the zip on the ball that I was expecting to see. It was interesting, but kind of sad if you are a Peyton fan.
That said, I think he will try to come back one more time. I think Denver will start looking hard for his replacement. Indianapolis had the "suck for Luck" season when they decided to part ways with him. Denver doesn't seem like the kind of organization that would start a season with no reasonable back-up plan in case their starting QB doesn't work out (cough cough). I will be keeping an eye on them to see if they make any moves that hint what their plan will be going forward.
Cincy did a very good job early on. Then the Broncos solved them for a bit. Then the weather turned rotten.
So we saw the Broncos strengths and weaknesses all in one game. To me, Peyton looks fine. But he has always been a really bad in poor weather, and the route to the Super Bowl will most likely involve some of that. And his O line is the weakness of this team, only made worse by the loss of Knowshon (the only RB who seemed capable of assisting in protection). This reminds me of what we were saying about Brady before the Pats played the Bills and all of a sudden all was well in Boston. I think Peyton has a couple years left, but as others have pointed out, the team is best positioned to win this year, not in 2016 or 17, and the worst news of all for the Broncos is that the route to the trophy appears to involve (1) beating NE in Foxboro; (2) beating Seattle in Arizona. Those are the two matches they were hoping to avoid all season.
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I'm kind of hoping that Goodwin finishes the season with his pristine stat line intact:
1 catch, 42 yards, 42.0 avg. He's a deep threat all right!
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Well, one thing it does prove is this: we certainly wouldn't have been worse off just sticking with Fitzy the last 2 years, using the draft pick on someone other than EJ, and saving the money we're still paying Fitzy and now paying to Orton as well ...
Yeah, and that's what's so frustrating here. Always a day late and a dollar short. They decide Fitz is a franchise QB and pay him big time, and as a consequence don't draft a QB until the weakest QB class in recent memory. Then they force the issue and take EJ. Then they can't treat EJ as the sunk cost he is and do the obvious thing and draft Bridgewater. I know, I know, everyone will defend the Sammy pick, and he's been as advertised. But Bills management and fans need to face facts. Ask this question: would the Bills be better off going into 2015 with Bridgewater at QB, a 1st round pick, and no Sammy? Or this: would Minnesota even dream of trading Bridgewater for Sammy straight up right now? We overthought things again, and whiffed again.
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Does it?
Well, one thing it does prove is this: we certainly wouldn't have been worse off just sticking with Fitzy the last 2 years, using the draft pick on someone other than EJ, and saving the money we're still paying Fitzy and now paying to Orton as well ...
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With a healthy Fitzpatrick the past 2 seasons, what do you think the results would be?
I really think we could have been on a 2 season playoff streak right now
I think this proves my point ...
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John Hummer
A Braves reference! Although I really wanted the Bob Kauffman jersey.
I guess there's something to be said for being in the same situation as lots of fans. 43 years since my first Bills game. Over the last 15 or so I've become used to switching allegiance (temporarily) to my new local team -- the Broncos -- when the Bills drop out of contention. At least that didn't happen in November this year. I'm getting a little tired of saying that we're poised to make a run next year. The last time I said that, and really, really meant it, was in 2011. I will admit I actually said the following: "Ryan Fitzpatrick reminds me of Kurt Warner, the way he doesn't have the strongest arm but seems to have an uncanny ability to hit receivers in stride." Denial is a powerful psychological phenomenon ...
I'm so sick of being a bills fans. It's a curse and I hate it! It's like a heroin addict, knowing that they have an addiction and it's destroying their life but every Sunday comes around and they give in.
You want to know something? I actually wanted the team to get sold and moved. Then I would have been free. Free from this awful awful curse. The bills would have died and I could have enjoyed watching other teams play good football.
The bills do not deserve fans. They do not deserve to be an NFL team and should be demoted to the area league or banished to canada or something. The are heroin.
I thought the same thing. Then I said it here and everyone jumped me. But since I've always said I'm a Bills fan until I die or until they move out of Buffalo, it seemed the better option ...
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It's amazing how people feel the need to revisit the Lynch trade every time he has a good game on national TV.
True, but in some alternative football universe, Aaron Rodgers (in a Jupiter Bills uniform) is handing off the ball to Marshawn Lynch, who is running through a huge hole opened up by Andy Levitre ... ok, maybe not that last part.
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3. Somewhere there is a motel with 12 stupid people living off the government dole if any jury is still out on this clown.
4. We all agree but the jury's subject will probably not; and even if he jettisons the 2015 Orchard Park HS prom king in waiting, he will likely replace him with some other puppet. This is Marrone's "offense".
Ha!
And no way a Sean Payton becomes an offensive coordinator for anyone, much less the Bills ...
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There are 32 teams in the NFL. Every job is a marquee job
If Sean Payton is fired he will be our OC
Well, Andy Reid did take KC, not typically thought of as a prime position, so there is that ... and Rex Ryan will take pretty much anything at this point ...
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To be fair, he looked solid the first few games.
Agreed. And he gave us pretty much what we could have expected of him. A few really good games, a few "game manager/play not to lose" type games, and a few, well, games like today. I said they could make the playoffs with him (not because of him), and absolutely they could have, but not with making the kind of mistakes around him that this team made.
No first round pick? Why not trade Sammy?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Yes. Because I've been a fan of crappy teams for most of my life, and the crappiness always starts and ends with a GM or ownership who deems certain guys "untouchable" even though they've never won anything with them.