The Frankish Reich

Our friends the Saudis deliver again! Oh, and by the way: https://www.businessinsider.com/kushners-2-billion-investment-saudi-backed-fund-concealed-sec-rules-2023-2?amp

That’s … Unpresidented!

Tre'davious White was never the "shutdown corner" we tried to convince ourselves he was. And now his ceiling is as an average CB.

Agreed. And that’s kind of my point in my long post. I started off thinking, “surely there’s an example out there of a great QB (HOF level) who got stuck on such poorly run teams that he produced a long streak of uncompetitive seasons.” That’s simply not the case in the modern NFL. Rosters churn like never before. Coaches get hired and fired. And the great ones lead their team back to the upper tier routinely. In fact they do it all the time. And then those great QBs go to new teams when they’re old. And guess what? Those new teams get good. Brett Favre: twice (Jets, Vikes. I know they both ended badly, but the teams were better with them than they were before them). Joe Montana. Peyton. Kurt Warner. Even Warren Moon. Other than Russell Wilson, you’ve gotta go back to the 70s to find notable late-career Great QB/New Team failures, but those were essentially basket cases like Namath and Unitas. (This is why I am not joining the chorus of “Aaron Rodgers; Bring It On! posters we seem to have now.)

I know it's long, but read my OP! I am putting Josh Allen in the same elite group as 1 current HOFer, 2 no-doubt first-ballot HOFers, and one likely HOFer. And I'm saying as long as Allen is healthy we will be in the playoff (and yes, SB) hunt. If your expectations are that this team will go 14-3 or 13-4 every season, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. You're right ... that old Bills PTSD. It probably will take one Super Bowl win for us to get past that. But hey, until then we get to watch some pretty fantastic football 17 times a year, and then at least a couple times in the playoffs, right?

We’ve been through this many times before, but maybe our best window (to grab a Von or a similar game changer) was in 2021. But that time should come again. More than once. I meant it to be “it’s really hard not to be a consistent winner when you have a HOF level QB.” Glass half full guy here …

Well, the entire point is building a consistent winner. That’s what Beane and MCDermott stressed when they were brought in. That’s what they’ve delivered on so far. Look, it’s great if you draft Mahomes, wait one year, win Super Bowl. Russell Wilson, Big Ben, Brady: same. Sometimes it requires always being in the hunt, making a good move or two at just the right time, and finishing the job. I promised (threatened? However you see it …) a follow-on post addressing “how long can we expect our Peak Josh Allen window to remain open.” Spoiler alert: a while.

I forgot Frank Gore. I think he was 36 when we signed him. Now he was purely meant to be a “veteran presence” on a rebuilding team, but he was kind of toast by the time we got him. Veteran Leader Toast.

Other than Von, who are the "old guys" who didn't work out? If the age cutoff is 33 (Von's age last year), there's not really anyone who was signed for serious money with an expectation of a making a serious contribution. Lorenzo Alexander was 33 when we signed him, and we certainly got our money's worth. Rodger Saffold? Josh Norman? I don't think expectations were high with those two, and they lived down to those expectations. If Campbell signs anywhere the money he gets will reflect his age and expected limited playing time.

Or at least being in the running for a playoff spot right up until the final 2 weeks. Believe me, after two decades of futility, I can live with this kind of drought.

We're not exactly sure where the 2023 Bills will be in the competition cycle. It kind of looks like a retooling (certainly not rebuilding) year. Maybe it will work and we'll easily win the division again and make a playoff run. But at some time - as it does for every team other than that one whose name must not be spoken - there will be down years. Excepting that one exception, the question is this: When you have an elite (on a HOF track) QB, what do "down years" look like? Answer: Not so bad at all, and certainly not so long. Examples: current (or recently retired) QBs who have been/are on a HOF trajectory through a 10 year career: 1. Aaron Rodgers. Since taking over as starter and going 6-10, his record as a starter was under .500 just once - a 6-9-1 in 2018. And then he and the Pack immediately rebounded to 3 consecutive 13-3 records until going 8-9 last year. In short, his team (with him at QB) had ONE down year over the course of 13 seasons. Not bad. 2. Drew Brees. Yes, I'll even include the Chargers years. After an 8-8 rookie season and a terrible 2-9 the following year, he put up the following seasons for the Chargers and then the Saints: 11-4 9-7, 9-7 10-6 (first Saints year), 7-9, 8-8, 13-2, 11-5, 13-3, 7-9, 7-8, 7-9, 11-5, 13-2, 8-3, 9-3 One mediocre two-year streak with the Saints, and then another mediocre 3 year streak. No horrible seasons among them; just mediocre retooling years. And 8 seriously winning seasons in the rest of his Saints career. 3. Peyton Manning. Terrible 3-13 rookie year. Then one 6-10 season in his third year, but other than that never worse than 10-6 in his Colts career. Then a season on the IL, then a Broncos career of 13-3, 13-3, 12-4, 7-2 (yeah, that one goes to the defense). So ... basically the teams he QB'd had ONE bad season out of 16 following his rookie year. 4. Russell Wilson. Yeah, hindsight is 20/20. But as he went into his 10th season he was clearly on the HOF trajectory. Started out 11-5 as a rookie, then his worst season through his age 31 season was a 9-7. Then 6-8 in his last Seattle season, and the horrid 4-11 as a Bronco. But still: a 9 year run in which he always had a winning record, including a 13-3, and two 12-4s. I do think its not too early to say that Josh Allen, barring serious injury or erosion of his skills by taking repeated poundings*, is on the elite/HOF track. And so things may get "bad" in Orchard Park, but they'll likely be Drew Brees/Saints bad (a 2-3 year run of mediocrity), or even better, Aaron Rodgers bad (think 7-10 one year, then a quick rebound). QBs are so overwhelmingly important in today's NFL that if you have consistently exceptional QB play you just don't ever have lengthy downturns or (barring injury) disastrous 5-12 type seasons. I think the Bills are doing the right thing now. It's a little frustrating because we were so close, and now other teams have caught up or even passed us. But I can live with the down seasons the other greats produced. We will be back. And back. And back again. *This is the wild card. I've also been looking at aging patterns of QBs who depend heavily on their running skills. Not "mobile QBs" who scramble to buy time (think Mahomes) and only try to run downhill when a critical game is on the line. I'm thinking of the guys who consistently had 400 or 500 yard rushing seasons. QBs who feature the designed (or option) run as a key feature of their game (and, in turn, their success). Guys like Newton, Wilson, McNair, McNabb, Cunningham. And now guys like Allen and Hurts and Lamar and Murray. And I gotta admit it, I'm a little worried. More on that later.

OK. I'll go back and edit. I think the following applies to only one person in the world. "pervy 70-something obese libertine with a bad spray-on tan and the world's most ridiculous combover" EDIT: It just occurred to me ... MIKE PENCE. Definitely not pervy or a libertine. Some other issues there, but creepy old horndog is not one of them.

"Our precious, precious President ..." Can't make this crap up. I will never understand where this Trump As Messiah thing came from. Take a pervy 70-something libertine and treat him like the second coming.

Exactly. As he was texting that he hates Trump passionately and wants him gone from public life forever, was he fearlessly expressing those same sentiments on his nightly monologues? Umm, no. No he wasn't. He knew what Fox wanted him to say or not say to hold his audience.

Right. Hey, I'm a Frazier defender too!

We all assume that this was a polite way for the Bills and Frazier to part ways - he avoids the indignity of being fired and keeps some chance of getting a HC job in the next cycle. But do we know that for sure? Could he be dealing with a difficult health or family situation and the intent is really, actually, seriously for him to come back in 2024? I mean, there’s a chance that a leave of absence is really just a leave of absence.

And it comes along with a NYT subscription now, and there’s lots of cheapo intro offers for 1 year online subscriptions. I just had my wife cancel so I can get the cheapo rate.

2 for 2!

Straw man. How about the real world: class trip of 6th graders to NYC. Trip to the Metropolitan Museum of Art. Do you send and advance team to check out which galleries include depictions of naked bodies and rush the kids past them without allowing them to peek in? Because that’s what this moronic school is doing.

It’s not that simple. Let’s say I want to make some educated guesses about random people. This is demography, not stereotyping. And of course every group includes exceptions to the rule: - you are white without a college degree: you probably voted for Trump - you are white with a college degree: you probably voted for Biden - you are black of any educational bracket: you probably voted for Biden - you are white and live in an exurban or rural/small town area: you very very likely voted for Trump - you have a professional degree: you very very likely voted for Biden - you attend an evangelical Christian church: you very very likely voted for Trump. - you are Hispanic of Mexican ancestry: you probably voted for Biden. Of Cuban ancestry: you probably voted for Trump The old days of “the wealthy vote Republican, the poor vote Democrat” are over.

I suppose you’re right. I mean, “Classical Curriculum” means you’re gonna deal with a lot of controversial subject matter that doesn’t fit “Panhandle of Florida Evangelical Christian Republican.” - Socrates, Plato, Aristotle: I just learned they weren’t even Christians! - Old Testament: what’s all that grooming talk about men lying with men? - Renaissance: g0ddam pr0n, that’s what that is! - American Revolution: how dare they say Jefferson cut out every passage of the New Testament in which Jesus was described as divine or as performing miracles! (That’s exactly what he did) I’m a bit rusty on this classical education stuff, but I’m glad I had one (mostly in Catholic schools too), and I’m not afraid of ideas.

Serious question: have those people defending the firing of the principal ever taken their kids to a museum? Apparently not. Because they gonna see a little artistic nudity there

That would change my mind. Harris + 3rd > Singletary.