The Frankish Reich

Not what I'm seeing, and I have a friend who works for the VA. What I'm seeing is major cuts in VA staffing, including in the people who help vets navigate the complexity of the system to get the care they need. What I'm seeing is an administration that's on a push to privatization of the VA, following the Medicare Advantage model. You may think that's a good thing long term or a bad thing. But whatever you think, that's what's happening. It is certainly not a strengthening of the in-house VA system.

Trump will want to back down on the tariff thing soon, but he's too stubborn to just delete the so-called "reciprocal tariffs." But he too will be overruled by forces beyond his control. The problem is even the threatened tariffs have already had a big impact on reordering world trade. Things are now baked into the cake. We see this in the shipping numbers, etc. I doubt we'll see COVID-style shortages, but we will see certain shortages of things people want and like, including crappy Chinese toys for Christmas and all kinds of other consumer items.

Reading the tea leaves in Trump's morning cup: - I see the White House trotted out ... PETER NAVARRO this morning. Ol' Pete is back. So that always spooks markets since he is, after all, Mr. Tariff. - Prediction: Bessent will pop up somewhere this afternoon or after markets close with some kind of phony "it's all a negotiations tactic, and we're really close" statement. Markets up later today or in after-hours trading. What fun. Trump has made this just like Bet MGM with tons of in-game betting options.

Worked for Jimmy Carter! Of course, the lag time was about 50 years ... by the time of his death, you heard lots of people talking about how he started a lot of the deregulatory/de-inflationary things Reagan doubled down on. Trump's approval ratings is bound to improve by 2075.

Great explanation. You should do some of these expert TV spots! So it looks like one of those crap happens, particularly in an extended deployment?

@sherpa, a bit off topic, but I would be interested in your (still semi-hot at this point) take on the loss of the fighter jet in the Red Sea. Thanks.

There will be shortages. Shipping data confirms that.

Good luck with recruiting, Petey Boy. That's America, c. 2025. They sign up because they like playing Call of Duty and Halo while eating junk food and think the military will be the same thing in real life.

And 4 years later, Trump's Commerce Secretary is doing photo ops in front of Biden's CHIPS Act factory in Arizona.

In the real world, I am thrilled that India is making progress. I'm just pointing out that shifting production from China to India doesn't really do anything for those would-be American manufacturing jobs. And it may be a niche, but lawyer pr0n is my niche, so please lay off. My barrister wig is my own business.

CNBC has Commerce Secretary and Tariff Maven Howard Buttlick on now and he's being interviewed in front of the TSMC chip factory in Phoenix. The factory started under Biden's CHIPS Act. They are now trying to take credit for Biden's economic accomplishments. That's where we are.

I for one am thrilled that my future iphones will be produced in an Indian factory with even poorer work conditions and cheaper labor than those in China. America gets greater by the day!

That screenshot is classic. He ruined the economy and threatens our 200 year old constitutional order, but we don't have to bother with those annoying paper straws and filthy useless pennies. Oh, and we can rest assured that Oswald did indeed kill Kennedy.

Well, it's from a pollster I've never heard of ... but the only difference between the results here and other recent polls is that they asked the question more directly. See the recent results from respected pollsters that show a clear majority concerned about Trump disobeying court orders, etc.

So Bezos backed down? Yeah, I guess you could say that. But it was more like a shot across the bow. Play the tariff game, we'll play too ... Is it a "hostile political action" when Amazon doesn't display state sales tax inclusive prices, but rather adds one a separate amount before it processes my credit card charge? Republicans used to support full disclosure of taxes based on the notion that if you really knew what you're paying in taxes you'd support candidates who want to reduce them. Those people used to be called "Republicans."

The Twitter link is to a related story. I learned here that most people don't read anything if it isn't a Twitter link ...

Going with the 5D chess theory! Trump is always right. Now we know: Cult Member

The WSJ has been the best source of objective coverage and analysis since the start of Trump 2.0. Their editorial on the 2nd First 100 Days nails it: The White House motto seems to be that if something is worth doing, it’s worth doing too much. That’s especially true on tariffs, which could sink his Presidency. Mr. Trump was elected to control inflation and raise real incomes, but tariffs do the opposite. They guarantee at least a one-time increase in prices on imported goods that will flow through the economy. They portend shortages for consumers, and for businesses that source goods and components from abroad. The tariffs are the largest economic policy shock since Richard Nixon blew up Bretton Woods in 1971, which unleashed inflation that Nixon tried to stop with wage and price controls and a tariff. The economic consequences arguably doomed Nixon’s second term, perhaps as much as Watergate. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-100-days-second-term-tariffs-economy-china-ukraine-6abc2198?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

Amazon pulled back that "threat" (by which I mean "disclosing the truth"), but the point has been made. I hope Amazon and more companies do this. The price impact of tariffs shouldn't be hidden. Unless Trump course corrects soon, we'll be seeing this a lot.

If you care about autism spectrum disorder and its causes (and don't just want to make political points), here's a good starting point. tl;dr: mostly the effect of redefinition/increased likelihood of getting an ASD diagnosis: https://www.cremieux.xyz/p/whats-the-deal-with-autism-rates?r=62ptu&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web So many aspects of normal child—and particularly male—behavior have been turned into issues that demand psychiatric attention, and this has been done intentionally. I am actually awestruck by the fact that RFK Jr. has not fired the head of the Child Psychiatry Branch of the National Institutes of Mental Health, one Judith Rapoport, who was once quoted as saying: I'll call a kid a zebra if it will get him the educational services I think he needs. To most people, admitting that you’ll lie to get someone diagnosed with a condition because you see a need should be a cause for alarm. Would you trust the psychiatrist telling you they’ll lie to get you services? Maybe, because you want those services, but would you like to pay for the same treatment for a million other kids? And if the next year, none of the kids deserve that treatment but they’re getting diagnosed anyway, do you want to foot the bill? That the diagnostic situation has now evolved to the point where too many people are receiving services they do not need is now so well-evidenced that debate is hard to fathom and cutting the fat is more than warranted. I wish RFK Jr. all the luck in the world in these efforts, and if he wants a succinct, well-supported report on how to do the cuts without cutting care for the kids who really need it, he has my number.

To be fair, I think that's more about Amazon doing more in-house and not using UPS for their deliveries anymore.

Maybe some of her "former colleagues" will join him on those recruiting trips.

Whatever. They had a 20 pt lead in the polls under Trump got started. By the way, will you admit that the U.S. takeover of Canada thing is absolutely idiotic? Or are you so 100% enthralled by Trump that you won't even say that?

My wife and I have a "sub-deal" to buy a $10 million home in Aspen. By which I mean: she really likes it, and the realtor says that as soon as we come up with $10 million it's ours.

And to the point - the EO about truckers needing to pass a literacy test ... Sure, it sounds good, and I kind of agree in principle. But I drive I-40 through NM/AZ/CA pretty often. Maybe 20% of big rig drivers I see are Indian Sikhs. They even have Punjabi style restaurants in the truck stops. And they don't speak great English. Who's gonna deliver those goods? Can you say "inflationary?"