GunnerBill
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Posts posted by GunnerBill
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Teams tried to trade ahead of the Bills for Mahomes. Read the 49ers SI story. Just because you want to make a trade doesn't mean the other team has to agree. Bills first team to say yes to Kansas City who called people before Buffalo. Looks like McDermott's great trade not so hot for teams in the 9, 8, 7, etc spots.
The sense I got from piecing together the bits of evidence from stuff that is out there is that Kansas City had always targeted the Bills at #10 as their trade partner. They were active in calling teams ahead for fear that there might be a "jumper" (and my understanding is the Giants were the team they were most concerned about) who would spring ahead of them into the top 10. I think a lot of those calls were more "if other teams call you don't do a deal with them before speaking to us."
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This QB class stuff is funny. I want the best class! I can't speak for Andy Reid on next year's class but if I have a Derek Carr level prospect on the board and I don't have a franchise QB I run to the podium even if people think Winston or Mariotta could be better.
Same goes with Mahomes. When you have a guy that can be a franchise QB sitting there you don't start wondering about Darnold or a Rosen UNLESS you had a high certainty of finishing last place. Then and only then is it worth trying to look ahead. Having a guy better than your guy the next year does nothing to improve your football team unless you have a plan to secure that player. Tanking is a plan. Having a random extra 1st is not even close to enough to trade up unless you are getting a prospect worse than Mahomes and Wentz.
I agree with this principle. If you are high on a guy don't pass on him because you think there might be a slam dunk the next year unless you are planning to tank to ensure you get him.
2015 is a good example. There were 2 outstanding QB prospects in that draft. They were the 2nd and 3rd best players in the draft on my big board. I didn't have another Quarterback with a grade inside the top 4 rounds. Winston and Mariota went 1 and 2. If you had passed on a guy you liked in 2014 just hoping on of those two was there for you in 2015 and then they weren't there was no "back up plan" worth a toot.
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They didn't have to give Shady a new deal. They had him under contract cheaply for another year or two. Huge waste of resources. Picking him up was a good move. Bidding against ourselves to give him a new really huge new contract ... really bad idea, IMHO.
In combination with a bunch of other moves it put us in salary cap hell and resulted in us losing a bunch of good players.
It wasn't a really huge contract. It was a top 5 running back contract. It fitted the market. Resources are for accumulating and retaining top talent. As long as they do that in such a way that reflects the NFL market place in each instance it makes sense to me.
Again, don't know enough about Ducasse to talk about him. They've done a pretty poor job with the draft over the Whaley years, but a decent job with pro players, so I'd hold criticism for right now. I'm with you that comp picks are important, and wish they would be more careful with this. But if they hadn't picked up Ducasse, they'd still have gotten one more qualifying UFA than they lost, so wouldn't have a comp pick.
Ducasse's signing bonus is only $250K. He'd be easy to cut if he doesn't play well, and his average salary is only $1.16 M. It's not as if they gave up much. IMHO they're taking a flier and can easily drop him if it doesn't work out.
Ducasse was not a Whaley pick up. It is clear to everyone that McDermott has been driving this bus since the moment he arrived. I just don't think he is a good player. As I say he may have been signed as insurance against someone giving Groy an offer sheet that they were not willing to match and I think his chance of making the roster is 50/50 in that case (he is competing with Patrick Lewis for the 2nd backup interior lineman job). If that is the case I can see some sense to it, otherwise I am not persuaded.
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Where would you all rank Mahomes if he was entering the draft next year? Would he still be a top 10 pick, or 2nd QB taken? Would Andy Reid take Mahomes over the top 2 or 3 QBs next year. I know no one can really answer those questions, but I would like to here your opinions.
I honestly don't know because I haven't evaluated next year's class yet. I do want to make a start over the summer on them. I didn't have a high film grade on Mahomes either mind you, I had a high 3rd round grade on him he was my QB4, but if I was to list the order I'd have taken them he'd have been 3rd because I was more intrigued by his upside than that of Kizer. I can tell you where I had the two QBs I had 1st round grades on (Watson and Trubisky) in comparison to the last few past classes but I am not yet into next year's class so can't give that forward perspective.
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Shouldn't have? Well, I don't disagree with you there.
Whaley shouldn't have done a crappy job with the cap, but he did. I don't mind Ducasse specifically. I don't really know anything about him except that he's a UMASS guy and that's where I got my Masters. Go Minutemen!!!! But I'm with you that I would rather they had for example not given Shady the raise they did. Or not signed Clay even though it's obvious from the All-22 that he's very open extremely often. Or hadn't signed Harvin so that they were paying him dead cap last year and could have rolled the money over into this year's cap. Or something.
Point is, they were in an awful situation and had to let a bunch of guys go that they probably didn't want to ... guys like Gilmore and Zac Brown. And Gillislee.
The issue with Ducasse is less the contract for me and more the signing itself. I think he is a poor guard and I already consider interior offensive line a strength with Groy and Lewis. I suppose he might have been signed as insurance incase a team offered Groy a deal the Bills didn't want to match. If Ducasse makes the roster though I will consider it poor allocation of resources because he will count against the comp pick formula. However, let's be clear he was a McDermott pick up not a Whaley one.
As for the three cap moves you criticise Whaley for - I disagree on Shady. They gave him a new deal that was in keeping with the market for top 5 running backs. Now I know a lot of people would rather never dedicate big resource to the position, but for a team that doesn't have an established franchise Quarterback I did not think it was a bad contract to give. Clay and Harvin on the other hand I 100% agree. Clay's contract was, at the point signed, the largest % of guaranteed money for a non Quarterback in the NFL (it was more than most non-rookie deal Quarterbacks too). That is a crazy, out of whack deal that didn't match the market at all. I know why they did it - to stop the Dolphins matching... but that still doesn't stop it being in my mind a bad contract. As for Harvin... I believe him to have been the most overrated player in the NFL of the past decade (and I thought that before we signed him) so blowing the money we did on him was pure idiocy as far as I am concerned.
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Can we get a Mod around here please? This place appears to have become a school playground.
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Me neither, I thought that his feet were slow.
Watched the same games as me Kirby.
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They need space for their UDFAs they were at the max roster I think.
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They said the same thing when Karlos Williams........
When Karlos was cut we still had MG who had already really shown something at the tail end of 2015. I hope you are right about JWill John I really do... I just don't have high hopes based on what I saw last year.
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You can think velocity is not an indicator of success all you'd like, but the numbers indicate otherwise. Since 08, there hasnt been a successful NFL QB who threw less than 55 mph. You can say "what did those QBs do in college?" all you want, I don't care if they threw for 15,000 yards in college or never played. The number 55 is the indicator.
QBs who sucked in college suck in the pros - you will get no argument from me there. Surely you accept that 55 is not an indicator until a Quarterback who really didn't suck in college sucks in the pros? Otherwise it is just sucky Quarterbacks sucking. At the moment Connor Cook is probably the closest you have to a cast study to prove your hypothesis. If Watson fails and he fails through arm strength and lots of floated balls picked then I think it provides a much stronger evidentiary basis for your hypothesis.
McCarron and his weak 49 has not shown anything to indicate hes more than a backup.
[....]
"Passing" the Velocity test does not mean you WILL be a good NFL QB, but "failing" it so far has proved that you will NOT be a good NFL QB (I mean "good" as in, potential franchise guy, because who cares about anything else).
McCarron and Glennon have achieved more than many of those guys though.... and they threw a 49. Maybe they are career backups, maybe they can be more.
But here is an actual analysis of those numbers - to illustrate what they actually prove (not much). By my reckoning since 2008 there have 7 Quarterbacks drafted who I would say have earned true "Franchise" status. They are: Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Newton, Luck, Wilson and Carr. Of those:
- 4 don't have a tracked velocity score;
- 2 scored 55; and
- 1 scored 56.
There are then 10 who have either proven themselves capable starting Quarterbacks or are on the way to possible franchise status or showed promise as rookies. They are: Bradford, Dalton, Tyrod, Tannehill, Cousins, Bridgewater, Mariota, Winston, Wentz and Prescott. Of those:
- 2 were not tracked;
- 4 were scored at above 55 (2x 56; 1x 57; 1x 58)
- 1 was scored 55;
- 3 scored below 55 (2x 54; 1x 50)
I looked as well at guys who scored above 56 in velocity.... here are the results - very interesting:
- 2 starters (as already identified - Cousins and Wentz)
- 3 backups (Savage, Foles and Daniel)
- 18 busts
- 2 too early to say but doesn't look too hot (Goff and Lynch)
- 1 Kaepernick (no idea where he fits)
Based on proper analysis of this data there is nothing to support the original hypothesis that ball velocity of 55 or above makes it more likely that a Quarterback becomes a franchise player.
I think based on a proper analysis a much more reasonable hypothesis might be that there is an optimum velocity which is somewhere between 54 and 56 mph and players outside of those parameter at either end have a lower percentage chance of being good starters or franchise Quarterbacks.
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The most overshared and overvalued spreadhseet of all time.I have an issue with weaker armed QBs. Since 2008 QBs who have been clocked at under 55mph have not been successful with only a few exceptions. Those exceptions are: Jake Locker (54mph, 2011), Tyrod Taylor (50mph, 2011) and Dak Prescott (54mph, 2016). Peterman clocked in at 54mph this year. I know he's not strong armed, but I'm okay with 54mph. Here's a spreadsheet to check out:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_-SienfT3umX0HKxRyQqyXM9BqHrotdcQA6W-V_pDiY/htmlview?pli=1#
Which if those QBs below 55mph had done anything in college before showing up and throwing at the combine to indicate that they had a chance to be good pro QBs? Is Connor Cook maybe the best college tape of those? It isn't a great selection.
And indeed I'd argue AJ (49mph) McCarron has shown a whole lot more in limited action that some of this big arm boys who passed that particular test. Could say the same for Glennon too.
I just don't buy that it is sound analysis at all at this stage. There is no causal link proven at all.
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I don't think Brady wants to go out the Peyton way with people feeling sorry for him the last year. I know he won a Superbowl in his final game but he was so broken down that final season it was hard to watch. I think he will want to go with people saying "he could still play if the call comes." I think that is how his ego will want to go.
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Or they won't hear anything bad about TT and need to preach.
There is definitely preaching on both sides on Tyrod. Personally I find the pro-Tyrod people tend to be more dismissive of other perspectives than the anti-Tyrod people. He is the Quarterback this year. I think the issue should be put firmly in the box marked "do not open again until the games start".
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Thanks, your answer makes sense. Having a quarterback in place also makes drafting early defensive backs more palatable. Would you happen to know if they invested much in free agent DBs during the time period that you mention? Also, what was their record both before and after the 2016 draft? It makes me wonder if it was productive to virtually dedicate a draft to the secondary.
Yes, it does concern me that McDermott used his first pick in Buffalo on a corner because of the number of times I have seen it fail. It was great that he picked up a 2018 first round pick. I am thrilled by this and hope he doesn't waste it on a DB. We will need to solidify the QB position, the OL, and probably the pass rush by the next draft. Perhaps even WR, who knows?
This is true, and the best DB who ever played the game can only cover 1 at a time. And while I fully agree that the secondary should not be ignored, I for one believe that the best way stop opposing offenses is with pressure and sacks.
They brought vet free agents in on short term deals mainly - likes of Roman Harper, Charles Tillman and Cortland Finnegan. They went from 15-1 to 6-10 from 2015 to 2016 and the reasons do rather play to your "Quarterback and OLine 1st" principle. They had major injuries on the line and guys coming in and out and playing different positions and partly as a result Cam was never fully healthy. Those defensive back picks will help them long term though. Especially Bradbury - he is a really fine football player.
As for what the Bills need to focus on next year - I hope we will consider a Quarterback early, particularly if the class is as good as advertised. They will certainly need pass rush even if Shaq steps up as I believe he will and Jerry has a bounce back season in a 4-3 because there is very little depth. They may need wide receivers too. I'm less sure they need o-line at this moment in time - our line is strong and has respectable depth in my opinion (especially if Kujo can sort himself out and Dawkins displaces Mills as a starter). By next year however we could be at the point where Richie is not worth his salary and Wood likewise. I think they have Groy tied up for two years so he gives them an option at one of those spots but they will almost certainly want to add at least one young interior lineman next offseason if Incognito and Wood are gone.
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I don't follow the Panthers, but would you mind explaining their 2016 draft to me? Why did they use 3 of their first 4 picks on defensive backs? Also, how did doing so translate in terms of wins/losses?
Thanks.
I know you hate drafting DBs... but there is something of an answer here. They had lost their best corner and in the previous 6 drafts their spend on the secondary had been:
2 4th rounders
2 5th rounders
1 6th rounder
3 7th rounders.
They had a major talent deficiency at defensive back and eventually you have to address it. Bradbury particularly was a player I was quite high on coming out and he had a good rookie year. But the answer is they had a real need at the position after ignoring it high in the draft for the past number of years. Maybe you'd rather never use high picks on defensive backs.... but that isn't a model that the successful franchises in this league have followed.
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What if Peterman is better than Mahomes??
Well.........................that would be a good thing.
Right. How did this thread continue beyond this post? This said all that was needed.
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Thanks for the post. I just wish we were here two years ago, but we can't eliminate the Rex era unfortunately.
And I really, really, wish we could eliminate any traces that the Ryans were ever here.
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It's a perennial occurrence on TBD that fans cite injuries for Buffalo not succeeding. And that's going to happen in 2017 because they're razor thin across the board, save perhaps interior OL, and DL. One injury disrupts just about every other position.
RB depth is nil and McCoy has had a balky hammy for a while now. WR depth is a complete unknown and the starters aren't close to set. Others here already made the case they're thin at LB (even playing nickel) and the secondary is still completely new. Beyond Hyde, there isn't a capable starter there. Starters and depth at corner are an unknown and the talent drop off will be evident if one of them gets hurt.
I like where the management is going. But installing new schemes on both sides of the ball is a double edged sword. While it means other teams aren't sure how to plan for them as well, the players need to learn what the staff wants to do...again.
The off-season purge was years perhaps decades overdue. Doing things right takes time and I can't see them, with this schedule, winning more than 6 games. No one's calling it a rebuild, but that's precisely what it is.
For once, and it is rare.... I agree with most of what BillsVet has said here.
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They get 3 years, not 4. This is the NFL after all.
Part of my reasoning for 4 years and not 3 is I truly believe we will at some point have a year with a rookie QB. It isn't going to be year 1, might be year 2 but possibly year 3 (if we draft one in 2018 but start TT). I'm willing to take a bit of a dip with a rookie at the helm if that is what it takes to find our QB of the future.
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I do think a 6th Superbowl might encourage Brady to walk away. It wouldn't shock me if he did put it that way. I also think unlike before you might see some more of Jimmy G in mop up duty this year and they might choose the sit Brady week 17 or something like that. I think Bill knows that he needs to know.... if he thinks Jimmy G is the one no way does he let him walk next offseason because he knows finding that one who might be the heir to Brady is not going to be easy. It is not like he could just chuck Jimmy and find another as good if he thinks that Jimmy is the real deal. Garoppolo will be 26 by the end of the 2017 season. If he isn't going to get a shot in 2018 I don't think he is willing to wait any longer.
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forgetting Listenbee or just don't think he is good enough?
Neither. I just think at this point with a coach and GM with no attachment to him coupled with no NFL production in tape he is just one in the mix with no leg up at all on an UDFA brought in this year. He will need to earn his spot.
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The horror
Way to take one sentence out of a longer post out of context to make it look like I was saying that is a bad thing.
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I wanted McDermott too. I honestly believe had Carolina not gone to the Superbowl in 2015 he would have been a Head Coach a year earlier. His process driven approach and circumspect communication are more my sort of person and my sort of coach than Rex could ever be.
I am nervous just how much power the Pegulas have given him but once they made that decision they had to follow through and get "his guy" at the GM spot. I feel like here are two personalities we know mesh who are aligned philosophically and are going to work together well.
I just want to see it given time to work. Give it 4 years.... do not get trigger happy if there are blips. Stay the course. I think in McDermott we have a winner. -
This was the only possible decision. If they did anything but hire Beane I would have been disappointed.
Agreed.
What if Peterman is better than Mahomes??
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
It isn't and it won't be I'm sure. Most of this will be gone when a mod turns up. Some of the conversation last night was embarrassing playground stuff.