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GunnerBill

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Posts posted by GunnerBill

  1. I suppose I'd ask what plays well means John. I see 3 possible scenarios:

     

    A - The most likely - Tyrod is pretty much the Quarterback we have seen so far and plays reasonably well as we end around .500. In my mind in that scenario the Bills keep Tyrod for the 2nd year of his contract even at the higher salary and draft a Quarterback in round 1. Tyrod starts 2018 as the starter and probably reliquinshes to the rookie at some point and is a FA in 2019.

     

    B - Tyrod hits it out of the park in 2017, throws for more yards, more touchdowns, a few more picks but wins the Bills games frequently. In that scenario I think the Bills try and extend him and don't take a Quarterback in round 1 and whether they take one in rounds 2 and 3 depends on how much they like Peterman.

     

    C - Tyrod regresses in the new offense when the run game doesn't click and he is forced to try and win more games in his arm. In that scenario I think the Bills bench him wih 5 or 6 games left cut ties at the end of 2017 swallow the cap hit and draft a Quarterback in round 1 who competes with Peterman to start in 2018.

  2.  

    I think that's the interesting thing, GB: Rex was not a good head coach. And yet he went 7-8 last year. So the roster couldn't have been horrible if a bad coach can tickle .500.

     

    Our biggest roster losses (Gilmore, Woods) were replaced by high draft picks. This year's roster is comparable to 2016's roster. If McD has truly assembled a better coaching staff and is a better leader & coach than Rex, shouldn't we win 8 or more games this year?

     

    Gilmore to me is a major loss. I think he was one of the best players on the team. I like Tre'Davious but would be surprised if he is a Gilmore equivalent straight off the bat. Then after that.... think we have some depth holes, and will need to see how we come out of camp with those addressed and think the schedule is tougher. The AFC West is a division the Bills could easily go 0-4 against and that means you likely need to go 10-2 the rest of the way to make the play offs. Again, things might not in fact play out like that and those teams might be worse than expected but at the moment I am not going to set McDermott and co an arbitrary win target based on Rex's 2016. Could I see us 8-8 again? Sure... I think 6-8 wins is the likely range. If they do better than that I will be delighted.

  3.  

    Yes, I know. But you are one of the few people who seem to grasp this. Pegulas didn't decide to fire Whaley and the scouts. Sean was hired and demanded total power.

     

    But with great power comes great responsibility. Rex and Rob Ryan were considered laughing jokes for finishing .500. So Sean and his Beane Buddy MUST hit 9 wins.

     

    I don't think they must hit 9 wins right away. I think the point was the we were never going beyond 8 wins with Rex. Rex has coached in the league every year since 2009 and hasn't won more than 8 games since 2010 - we knew what he was and it wasn't ever going to be good enough. McDermott and Beane's job is to build a perennial contender in Buffalo, but it might not happen year 1 and I genuinely don't think it has to. What we have to see year 1 is a coherent, cohesive plan both off the field and on it. If we see that but it only results in 6 wins I will not be angry with that and I will have hope of a step forward in 2018.

  4. It is not a prudent approach to expect anything other than what we've seen. We don't know if he will be Kaep, Cunningham, RG3 or Russell Wilson (running out of black QBs that I am allowed to compare him to). We shouldn't expect him to be different.

    And I still think TT is closer to a faster Alex Smith than any black quarterback.

  5. Ok, I know I will get roasted here, but Darby really was drafted as a man cover corner. Not really sure he fits the cover 3 zone prototype at all.

     

    With Seymour and White seemingly better fits, is there any possibility in your opinion that Darby, if not fitting through camp, could get traded, be a backup, or move inside?

    Think it is absolutely a fair question. We saw a couple of times last year when in situations where he was having to make decisions Darby struggled. I don't think he is a great read and react defender. I would like to see McDermott keep the amount of on field thinking to a minimum for Darby.

     

    As for trading him? Can't see it. He is cheap and has shown he can play in the league though in a different system. I suspect he is unlikely to see a 2nd contract here though - which will mean another highly drafted DB walking away after 1 contract.

  6. Gunner, I don't know anyone around here who's saying he's the long term answer. But I believe he'll be "the guy" this season. But no matter who it is, I'm going to root like hell for him because he'll be the Bills QB.

    I believe he will be the guy this season as well and believe me I root for every guy in the uniform. I would 100% love to be here eating crow in February after Tyrod has had an outstanding year and improved on all his weaknesses.

  7. Unless he suffers an injury Tyrod Taylor will be the Bills starting Quarterback in week 1. What I do think this year is that the Bills will pull him out once the season is dead... I suspect we see some Peterman by the end of the year.


    You talk about Taylor missing wide open WRs on a consistent basis (so consistent that I think you said there were very very few plays he didn't have WRs running wide open that he should have and could have thrown to) as though it's a clear problem for Taylor that would need to be resolved before he could ever be considered the long term answer.

    Yet, you haven't bothered really examining how frequently or infrequently other better QBs have WRs doing the same...

     

    Well I have watched the all 22 on other Quarterbacks to compare and here are my conclusions:

     

    - he holds the ball too long;

    - he misses guys running open too often;

    - he bails clean pockets more than any of the other "running QBs" - I watched Newton, Wilson and Smith specifically.

     

    He can't be the long term answer. I put those chances at less than 1 in 10. Does that mean he sucks or isn't a top 20 / 22 Quarterback in the world? No it doesn't. But the contract reduction tells me the Bills don't believe he can be the long term answer either. It is right in the market for bridge contracts that Philly established last year when the retained Bradford. That is what the Bills think Tyrod is - a bridge - and he is a darn good bridge. But holding out hope that he is "our guy" is forlorn in my opinion.

  8. If it is supposed to be a test of my optimism for 2017 then I'd say only slightly optimistic. If it is supposed to be a test of my overall optimism at where we are headed then I say extremely optimistic. I think McDermott was a very good hire and they backed it up with Beane and have a GM and Head Coach in lock step.

  9. Mulligan for the first year.

    Significant improvement for the second year.

    Playoffs for the third year.

     

    Any new regime that can't turn this team around in 3 years has no business being in Buffalo.

    I would normally agree... the reason I have said 4 years this time is that I suspect year 2 or more likely year 3 will be a rookie Quarterback year. It's why I was very pro taking one this draft. I think the class was much better than the media consensus and I think if (as I suspect we will be) we are done with 4 or 5 weeks to go you can get the rookie in and have him start the process and go into camp next year as the starter.
  10. In 2013, the season before the QB Magician passed on Derek Carr, the Chiefs went 11-5, with Smith averaging a dreadful 6.5 YPA. But of course he could throw at will when the game was on the line. I can't remember if that was the year he threw zero TD passes to his WRs...

     

    I think that was the year after. In fairness to Smith he did have some woeful receivers.

  11. Teams tried to trade ahead of the Bills for Mahomes. Read the 49ers SI story. Just because you want to make a trade doesn't mean the other team has to agree. Bills first team to say yes to Kansas City who called people before Buffalo. Looks like McDermott's great trade not so hot for teams in the 9, 8, 7, etc spots.

    The sense I got from piecing together the bits of evidence from stuff that is out there is that Kansas City had always targeted the Bills at #10 as their trade partner. They were active in calling teams ahead for fear that there might be a "jumper" (and my understanding is the Giants were the team they were most concerned about) who would spring ahead of them into the top 10. I think a lot of those calls were more "if other teams call you don't do a deal with them before speaking to us."

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