GunnerBill
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Posts posted by GunnerBill
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I think one of the issues is there is a disconnect between the "surface level" numbers that get loosely termed "analytics" and actual "analytics". The 4th down thing is an example of that. There is that number out there that says a team going for it on every 4th down would have a positive points differential overall as against a team who take the conventional punt and FG route. However, actual analytics would need to isolate certain numbers in that assessment and consider the variables at play. For example, 4th downs in a team's own half of the field have a high success % but they are rarely tried beyond 2 minute drills at the end of a game when a defense will often not sell out to stop the run in a 4th a short scenario because they are protecting against the big play down the field. The reason teams don't go for every 4th down is not because they are "ignoring analytics" it is because the reality of analytics is much deeper and more complex than the "surface level" numbers that are loosely thrown around on twitter.
I think that is a bit what C Biscuit is getting at.... not that numbers can never help.... but that surface level headline numbers that ignore the multitude of variables are little better than gut instinct ever was. That isn't to say the Bills can't get better and sharper in their use of data to assist in gameplanning and scenario based decision making - they clearly can and hopefully they will.
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I think 3rdand12 was perfectly entitled to ponder why yet another thread has become a dissection of Tyrod and the offense. We have had enough of those.
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Im particularly interested in the o-line this camp... how do they line up and what does it look like they are working.
Hope Astro can keep his well trained eye on that for us.
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Looking for my clipboard now.
If you come out to training camp, come over and say hi.
I'm always top right as you face the stands.
Astro
Can't wait for the Astro camp reports. Truly one of the things that makes this board great. The gap between draft and camp seems to have dragged on this year.....
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Chip Kelly loved analytics. But he loved them so much he ignored things like varying the pace so your defense doesn't completely wear out.
This is your strongest point. I'd develop on this because it is where your strongest argument lies.
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Improvement doesn't always show up in wins or even visible improvement right away.
100% agree. Especially true in a league where you play 16 games and year to year 10 of those games are different.
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The Ryan hiring seems asinine in retrospect but there were a lot of people who thought that he'd put the defense over the top, taking them from top 5 to #1.
Those people were wrong. I thought so at the time and so it proved.
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totally agree. i used the same philosophy with bell last year and it worked out great.... i took him 4th(he slipped becuz people were scared off) and then i just went about drafting rb's and wr's and just pulled the trigger on williams early. i wanna say it was the 6th round. worked out great.
i would do the exact same thing in this situation.
Yea I managed to get Bell in the late first / early in the 2nd in two leagues last year and he won me matchups single handed down the stretch. You just have to maybe be a bit more willing to take an extra RB early to back him up.
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I guess my rooting for them vs Seattle is a bit like the Manning conversation yesterday. I don't hate Brady and the Patriots enough to make me root for Manning who I find pretty dislikeable in himself and I don't hate them enough to be desperate for such a horrible,classless bunch of hooligans and wannabe tough guys like Seattle to beat them.
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Glad you said it's your opinion.
I disagree.
But we're never going to know for sure.
I agree, we won't. What we do know for sure is it only became definitively mutual once the pay cut was agreed. And in my mind that was absolutely the right play from both sides. Bringing Tyrod back at his old deal was always 50/50 for me... or probably 51/49 against. Bringing him back on this deal was an absolute no brainer and from Tyrod's side I agree with you - playing for the Jets or the Browns for more money wasn't worth the likely reputational damage of being the QB of a sucky team.
Whether Houston was interested I am less sure. I heard very strongly they were always Romo or draft a guy. I suspect they are going to be very happy with their choice for a very long time.
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Lol, so you pretty much agree that when we do break the drought it won't be enough
How did you get that from my posts in this thread? I have said I am more bothered this year by performance rather than win total. All I said above before we start saying fans will never be satisfied lets wait until the Bills give us something to be satisfied over.
You can check my posting history I was pretty satisfied with both of the Marrone years because I saw some things I felt I needed to see for me to feel good about the future. The last two years not so much.
When we become a Texans or Bengals make the playoffs a few years in a row but lose early then probably fans will not be satisfied and you can come here and tell them they will never be satisfied. But you can't tell them that when they have only seen 2 winning seasons (both no playoffs) in 17 freaking years!
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Tyrod does miss receivers in the middle of the field but he misses open receivers on the outside too. I don't think it is a middle of a field issue so much as it is either a reluctance to throw the ball or he doesn't read the field well enough. I think upon studying the tape it is the latter, but I can't be sure. It is an educated guess. I don't really care which it is... I just want him to improve on it.
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I've been a Seymour fan. I liked that pick as soon as we made it. Wouldn't surprise me if he puts pressure on Darby for one of the starting boundary corner jobs by the end of the year.
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I think they have decided Petty is no more than a backup level talent at best. Which is what I said he was coming out. I think they will start McCown and Hackenberg will get his shot early.... maybe as early as game 5 or 6.
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As a daily user of the quiet car on my local line, I can imagine you got quite a few well deserved nasty looks. People on my train take that stuff seriously....
I did. And people on the Manchester to London train were unlikely to be understanding when I explained that the Buffalo Bills had sacked their coach.
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Seriously?
Only a few more years until the Bills earn the crown of longest playoff drought in the history of the NFL. Can they keep losing?
Who cares though right? It's Buffalo. Fans should just be happy they have a team.
Agreed. Let's leave the "whatever they do it isn't enough" until the "whatever" is at the very least double digit wins.
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In the end, it's anyone's guess but nobody could be happier than me that Rex and his brother are long gone.
I woke up the quiet coach of an intercity train with a roar when the notification came through to my phone.
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It is Dez Lewis' and 3rd year. He is not making the team. O'Leary also in year 3.... he makes the team and has a chance to have a solid year as a rotational contributor (even though I'm not a huge fan of his).
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Myself personally, the Bills new HC McD just spent the last few years watching Cam Newton rip a new A hole in NFL Defenses across the league and Tyrod Taylor wasn't getting out of Dodge that easily,
Tyrod and Buffalo was mutual...
Well it was only mutual once he agreed to the pay cut. If Tyrod had refused the pay cut and contract slashing my gut instinct (though this is opinion, obviously) is that he wouldn't be in Buffalo.
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how about a thread for realistic predictions? Bills go 7-9 and miss the playoffs for the 18th straight season, pick 10th and miss out on all of the top QB's, lose some players to free agency, sign some players, then repeat over and over until we are dead. yea you're right...let's stick with fantasy land predictions, it's more fun!
There is plenty of time for those..... I will do my predictions for who wins each division before the season starts.... in this pre-Camp period I thought this was more fun.
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I think he couldve got a glennon type of deal - probably less money - from the browns. But its a short term gain, for some long term pain. Who would want to play for the browns after the last few years? His best chance to actually put up numbers and try and get an actual extension is here. He has built relationships with players on the team, and they believe in him. If he plays well here, we still might let him walk, but he'll definitely get paid elsewhere.
Sort of a... betting on yourself type of situation?
It was his best chance to start, on a bridge contract, in a place where he felt the team had a chance to be competitive. His other options were either to start on teams that are likely to suck or to sign as a backup on a team with an established starter who has an injury or age question mark - Arizona being the one that was mentioned and springs to mind.
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I considered the Browns to come second in the AFC North as one of my Bolds..... Still not convinced that the Ravens look right and the Bengals look like a team ready for a total implosion.
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That's fair as their line is not good. I think that they still are able to add someone. It's also possible that Fluker has a bounce back year. The line won't be great but they are going to force a lot of DBs to be on the field. They can manage pass rush some by regularly only having to account for 4 to 5 guys.
I certainly think them making the Superbowl is bold but not totally outside the realm of reality.
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It was not essentially .500. It was .468.
I don't expect the Bills to make the playoffs this year and that is not the success criteria I will be measuring them against. I agree with the OP on that. To me success in 2017 looks like a team that looks prepared, committed and ready to play every week. No 10 men on the field and 12 men on the field all the time, no linebackers checking for rain as the other team is snapping the ball, no safeties completely abandoning their assignments and no game plans that play against the strengths of our players. Marcel Dareus is not a nose tackle just as one obvious example. On offense it means no needless timeouts because we can't line up properly, it means being able to operate a 2 minute drill effectively and it means not getting away from things that are working in the name of "variety".
If I see those things and we win 6 games (I really do think this schedule is hard and we could be a better team than last year and win fewer games - as an example I personally think the 2016 Bills played better than the 2015 Bills but on a harder schedule..... the 2015 season remains an epic underachievement against a powder puff schedule) I will think we go into 2018 with a real chance to break the drought. If I see those things and we win 9 or 10 then fantastic.
Teddy Bridgewater expected to miss all of 2017 season
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Cos they are not saying lovely things about your boy?