GunnerBill
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Posts posted by GunnerBill
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While I agree with you, GB, I fear you're gonna get flamed. You know how ridiculous it got around here after the Draft..
Oh well.... plus ca change?
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Odd timing. Four GMs gone after the normal firing season this year. I know there were certain circumstances in Washington but the others maybe indicate NFL teams have started to think that the traditional firing season doesn't really work for personnel people given the way scouting and the draft works? Maybe the Bills (who have made our last 2 GM changes right after the draft) are ahead of the curve for once?
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It sounds like everyone in this thread is saying the same thing, differently.
Yea I think when we have got into it there is not much disagreement. Analytics can work in football and teams still need to get better at using it... but it is often much more complex than in some other sports because of the variables at play.
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I think the main area in which we disagree is the extent to which today's head coaches are really utilizing analytics on game day. I believe most still coach by their gut during the course of the game because of the intense scrutiny of the position. There are only 16 games, so if one of these decisions supported by the algorithms doesn't pan out and the team loses, the coach may theoretically lose his job. For as many fans/reporters/etc. there are clamoring for teams to use data in their decision-making, there are just as many who would be the first to criticize a coach for not taking the old school, conservative approach.
Maybe. But teams are doing the scenario planning with their analytics guys now... so Head Coaches are not blind to the data on gamedays. Do some still just revert to gut and conventional wisdom in the heat of battle? Sure. But I think some coaches are making smarter decisions on things like 4th downs, 2 pointers, FGs and challenges now and I think the fact that most teams have guys actually doing analytics and not looking at over generalised surface level numbers helps.
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I hope I don't get called a racist for comparing him to an Ewok. Race was nowhere in my train of thought, only a picture of him that I had previously seen. 
Haha. I think you are okay H2o.... we knew where you were coming from.
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I think he looks more like an Ewok
Last week I was racist for only fancying New England's white players and today when I compliment Zeke's abs I am accused of fancying a fat ewok.....
I mean no self disrespecting metrosexual man can win can they?
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isn't he like 2-22 in his games since 2014?
2-20 with the Buccs and Browns. He has started games in 9 NFL seasons. Only 1 of those 9 did he end up the right side of .500 his 3-2 record with the Bears in 2013. That is a career win - loss of 18-42.
His career TD-INT ratio is 79-69.... again that is bolstered by 2013 when he went 13 TDs to 1INT. Take that year away he is 66-68.
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I don't actually think eball and I are disagreeing that much at all.... just talking past each other a bit maybe.
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You apparently didn't read the last sentence of my response. I also think you are grossly underestimating the level of "gut" coaching that still goes on.
I did read your last sentence and that was my initial point. Analytics done properly is an incredibly useful tool but part of the problem in the differences in understanding is the surface level numbers masquerading as analytics that don't build in the situational variables. I think teams get that much more than fans.
As for whether I grossly underestimate the gut coaching... I don't think it is that - as I said to Thurman I think it is more that the occassions when uninformed fans shout "analytics" to criticise a coach who the analytics would almost certainly support stand out to me much more vividly because I have this bug bear about anything with numbers being labelled "analytics". Analytics isn't using numbers it is actually interpreting them and the surface level stuff just doesn't do that.
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He kinda has the fat guy abs.
That's very much the look I'm going for
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IMHO most of them don't do it because if they go for it and don't make it there'll be a massive firestorm aimed at the head coach, whereas if he goes conservative, no firestorm because he's doing what the conventional wisdom has long championed. So even if the analytics, both general and situation-specific say go for it, most teams still won't.
Yea of course to some extent that is true. It just grates on me when I see twitter reactions to coaches who the analytics would support getting hammered for ignoring analytics. Particular bug bear of mine I suppose so I tend to notice those situations more, they stand out to me.
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i think it plays a role. i certainly rooted for manning over brady any chance i could get.
I'm not saying you are wrong.... I think it is human.... as I said I really dislike Rafael Nadal for no other reason than he was Federer's rival. It's the same principle. But I think for a lot of Bills fans it means they are predisposed to think Peyton Manning is this loveable, angelic type figure rather than the flawed individual that he is.
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https://twitter.com/fishsports/status/886919835384520704
This guy is going to end up with more than a little suspension if he keeps it up.
I'd suspend him every time he flashes his abs on TV. Just makes me jealous.
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i'm more on the side of liking manning, but i just don't get the dislike for him. a tea bagging incident? is it amazingly d-bagish? of course, but people move on. hell...let's not forget that brady completely took off on his pregnant girlfriend when he felt he found someone better. one doesn't make the other more right or wrong, but manning strikes me as much more likable.
This is what I am talking about..... Bills fans like Manning because he isn't Brady.
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Analytics is so much more than in game decisions, people need to understand that analytics is not just going for it on 4th downs. It is used very effectively to monitor player performance both in game and in practice. Players use analytics to make their workouts more effective and get the most out of their bodies. It is an extremely useful tool that for some reason personally angers people who can't stand to think sports change and adapt over time.
Yes absolutely. I didn't mean to suggest otherwise. The uselessness of that surface level 4th down analytics is just a particular bug bear of mine. I am very pro the use of data in sport to better understand performance.
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They don't go for it because it goes against their "gut" and the old school mentality of coaching, and they are more focused on the specific moment than in long-term probabilities. There are times it won't work and they're more concerned about being second-guessed than in trusting the data.
It's the same thing as basic strategy in blackjack. The data is tried and true -- if you follow basic strategy (the math) religiously then over the long haul you will come out almost even with the house. How many people refuse to hit 16 against a 10, though, because their "gut" won't let them do it when they have a big bet out there?
Getting back to football, I do agree that you have to factor game variables into the decision -- but those are simply additional data points from which the algorithms are derived.
No they don't do it because they have done actual analytics which goes beyond the surface numbers and considers the variables and tells you a strategy of going for every 4th down is simply not supported by robust data. There are times, of course there are, when teams don't go for it on 4th down because they are trapped by conventional thinking but those are not as prevalent as most fans assume. Quite often proper analytics that factors in the variables in any single independent decision will not support a decision to go for it.
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It's still better than watching people discuss Teddy
Cos they are not saying lovely things about your boy?
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I think one of the issues is there is a disconnect between the "surface level" numbers that get loosely termed "analytics" and actual "analytics". The 4th down thing is an example of that. There is that number out there that says a team going for it on every 4th down would have a positive points differential overall as against a team who take the conventional punt and FG route. However, actual analytics would need to isolate certain numbers in that assessment and consider the variables at play. For example, 4th downs in a team's own half of the field have a high success % but they are rarely tried beyond 2 minute drills at the end of a game when a defense will often not sell out to stop the run in a 4th a short scenario because they are protecting against the big play down the field. The reason teams don't go for every 4th down is not because they are "ignoring analytics" it is because the reality of analytics is much deeper and more complex than the "surface level" numbers that are loosely thrown around on twitter.
I think that is a bit what C Biscuit is getting at.... not that numbers can never help.... but that surface level headline numbers that ignore the multitude of variables are little better than gut instinct ever was. That isn't to say the Bills can't get better and sharper in their use of data to assist in gameplanning and scenario based decision making - they clearly can and hopefully they will.
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I think 3rdand12 was perfectly entitled to ponder why yet another thread has become a dissection of Tyrod and the offense. We have had enough of those.
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Im particularly interested in the o-line this camp... how do they line up and what does it look like they are working.
Hope Astro can keep his well trained eye on that for us.
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Looking for my clipboard now.
If you come out to training camp, come over and say hi.
I'm always top right as you face the stands.
Astro
Can't wait for the Astro camp reports. Truly one of the things that makes this board great. The gap between draft and camp seems to have dragged on this year.....
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Chip Kelly loved analytics. But he loved them so much he ignored things like varying the pace so your defense doesn't completely wear out.
This is your strongest point. I'd develop on this because it is where your strongest argument lies.
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Improvement doesn't always show up in wins or even visible improvement right away.
100% agree. Especially true in a league where you play 16 games and year to year 10 of those games are different.
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The Ryan hiring seems asinine in retrospect but there were a lot of people who thought that he'd put the defense over the top, taking them from top 5 to #1.
Those people were wrong. I thought so at the time and so it proved.
Let's get ready... 2017 BOLD predictions
in The Stadium Wall Archives
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NO! I will not have this thread becoming another Tyrod battleground.