GunnerBill
-
Posts
63,830 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by GunnerBill
-
-
Gunner, you had me at punter
Haha... as I knew I would have!
-
Except everything you just said completely ignores the context of the reality of what really happened.
Let me tell you what "really happened." What really happened is the NFL too your "this Quarterback class is 2013 all over again" narrative and wiped its collective backside on it. That is what really happened. The Quarterbacks in this class were not slam dunks, but there are guys with franchise potential.
I told you months ago that a minimum of two and likely three would be first round picks.
I told you months ago that the first Quarterback off the board would be top 5.
I told you months ago that the choice to be that first Quarterback was down to Trubisky or Deshaun Watson at a time when you were claiming some teams had Kizer as the guy a top of their board because Walter freaking Football thought so.
You were taken for a ride by a selection of the media whose narrative on this class was way off base with what actual scouts, general managers and Head Coaches in the National Football League think. Now trying to point out that Houston was backed into a desperate corner? Poppycock. Jay Cutler is a free agent, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a free agent, Colin Kaepernick is a free agent.... if these teams genuinely thought this class was no good there are guys out there who have been serviceable starters in this league that a Houston could have gone and got and plugged in with their great defense and excellent run game. Chicago did go and get a serviceable bridge guy and still wanted to take a Quarterback out of this class rather than waiting to the mythical 2018 class. Kansas City I will concede is a little different - they took a flier on a guy to develop - but they thought he was so rare a development prospect that they trade up to get him. They don't think a Pat Mahomes is coming around again in the mythical 2018 class.
The narrative of what we were supposed to think about the 2017 NFL Draft Quarterback class was exposed brutally last night. 3 taken in the top 12 picks - something that hasn't happened for FIVE years.
-
I'd really like to slide back 4-6 picks depending on what is on the board and get a 4th rounder back. Maybe Washington wants to come up and take a safety they like (their need is even greater than ours) and the trade chart values that move at 50 points. Washington's second 4th rounder is worth 49 points (maybe take their 7th as well for that extra point - pick our favourite young punter in the 7th to come in and compete?).
If the Bills can accomplish that and still get a contributor at 49 I think that would be the cherry on top from yesterday.
-
Zay is kinda' the Tre'Davious of the receiving class......low hype, high production, plug and play type that likes what he's doing.
Perhaps a lower ceiling physically than you'd want at a pick that high but his intangibles could push him past that.....in the right system.
Higher ceiling than Bob Woods........who was overhyped and overdrafted despite some people thinking he was a steal because of that overhype.
He would make a lot of sense.......I just don't like the fit with Tyrod as much as I like 3D's fit in the defense.
Think all this is a very fair evaluation.
I hope we don't trade up but I'd be fine with the pick itself
Same.
-
Just thought I'd have a look at the possible way the 11 picks before us fall tonight to try and get a better sense of what is there:
33 - Packers - Can see Forrest Lamp in play given they let JC Tretter go, Quincy Wilson makes a lot of sense at corner and Tim Williams as an outside pass rusher where they have a desperate need would not surprise me either. Rumours they also like Deshone Kizer.
34 - Seattle - I think this will be an offensive lineman. Lamp if not off the board at #33 is in play and Cam Robinson is very likely in my opinion. Shock pick might be a safety where both Chancellor and Thomas have missed games the last two years and the depth behind is paper thin - Budda Baker could be an option and Obi Melifonwu is possible. Dalvin Cook?
35 - Jaguars - Again Forrest Lamp makes sense as would Dion Dawkins if Lamp is gone but they also have a need at inside linebacker. Zach Cunningham is then obvious choice at that spot but I suspect Raekwon McMillan goes in the first half of the 2nd round as well.
36 - Chicago Bears - Defense for the Bears you would think - Malik McDowell must be a consideration here, otherwise it is the likes of Wilson, Baker, Teez Tabor, Melifonwu as upgrades to the secondary.
37 - LA Rams - Wideouts come into play - possibly Zay Jones who gives them more height at the position or someone like Chris Godwin or JuJu Schuster. Offensive line is also an option here but I expect Lamp and Robinson to be gone by this stage so the next tier of names is Dawkins and Ethan Pocic.
38 - LA Chargers - Secondary.... so Wilson, Baker, Tabor, Melifonwu, maybe Chidobe Awuzi.... McDowell to play opposite Joey Bosa would be a frightening proposition for opponents as well.
39 - New York Jets - Linebacker is a desperate need so Cunningham and McMillan are possible options, wide receiver could be in play - Zay Jones, Godwin and Schuster would all add something. Ethan Pocic might be seen as a Nick Mangold replacement or what about Dalvin Cook?
40 - Carolina Panthers - Will probably have missed the offensive tackle upgrades unless they want to reach down for an Anthony Garcia or a Roderick Johnson. They could go with another corner Awuzi, Tabor, maybe Fabien Moreau (thinking Wilson would be gone) or they could stand to add a young defensive end to rush the passer - Carl Lawson maybe?
41 - Cincinnati Bengals - I thought they might go Jonathan Allen or Reuben Foster in round 1 so the likes of McDowell, Caleb Brantley, Chris Wormley or the likes of Cunningham and McMillan are options. Jeremy Hill's career has faltered as well so maybe they consider Dalvin Cook?
42 - New Orleans Saints - I think Kizer might be considered here if he is still on the board. Receiver is another obvious spot.... Curtis Samuel's speed and versatility would be a nice fit in that offense. Defensively if either Baker or Melifonwu are still there they would be considered, as might Carl Lawson or Jordan Willis on the defensive line.
43 - Philadelphia Eagles - Desperate need at corner. I'd be amazed if they didn't look to take one here. Tabor, Moreau, Awuzi, Cordrea Tankersley, Kevin King.... whoever is the highest on their board.
My conclusion from all that is that whilst currently there is help at some of the Bills "need" positions - safety, offensive tackle, linebacker and receiver.... the first three of those positions are likely to have been plundered by the time we go on the clock at 44. Which might mean a McDowell, Brantley or Williams is sticking out at the top of our board by the time we go on the clock. In that scenario hard to turn away from BPA.
-
My mock was 27/32 and 6 exact matches fwiw.
I had a pretty solid feel for it overall.
Congrats Bandit - you nailed a really tough draft! I am gutted about the ones I have had and then changed... I also when putting the final draft together had Harris to the Dolphins at one point and then got too cute with my "they took Tunsil they could take Foster" rationale.
-
Cunningham just seems like a McD LB
Yea and to me. I like him better than Jarrad Davis to be honest. Little shocked he is still there.
-
Will they be better than Watson or Mahomes? No one knows. All I can say is that quite a few "experts" think this seasons crop were only worth 2nd round consideration
Those experts were always wrong in my opinion. NFL teams are not always right but they agreed with me.
-
Gunner ... greatly appreciate reading your posts ... just curious of the remaining top 10 ... and looking in terms of "need" maybe vs. Best Player Available (i.e. - RB/Cook .. which I really like him ... but with Shady .. not sure about looking in other areas) ... do you have concerns over Zay Jones? I'm kind of biased as saw a lot of his games this year as my daughter goes to ECU .. I think he's Robert Woods and then some .. possession receiver and catches virtually everything thrown his way.
Jones is my 12th best remaining. Nothing wrong with him at all, in fact I like him a lot. Suspect by the time we get to #44 he is one of the top 5 left on my board and I would be good with that pick. Isn't as physical either in his releases or in run blocking as Woods but has a bit more height and I think it a better hands catcher but he would be filling that same #2 possession guy spot that Woods vacated.
-
There is in fact ammunition to move up in next year's draft with 2 1st round picks
But to move up to where? That isn't getting you to #1 if there is a consensus top quality QB. It will get you into the top 10 where you might have a shot at the 2nd / 3rd / 4th guy in 2018. Will they be better than Watson or Mahomes? The Bills better hope so.
-
Outside of a couple of pretty easy calls when you look back at it the actual draft destroyed everyone's mock. Trubisky to the Bears at #2? Three WR's in the top 10? Allen falling all the way to Washington? Foster dropped over all of his concerns. KC jumping up for Mahomes. Texans for Watson. Every mock I saw was done after the first 10 picks. Nice efforts though everyone
I consoled myself with calling 26 of the 32 players right which I was pretty pleased with... only 2 exact matches though
EDIT: Looking at Bandit's he nailed 6 or 7 matches. Very good job.
-
Well what about that then? One of the more dramatic first rounds in recent years - especially in the first half of the first round. A lot to get through so here goes....
The Bills Trade Back
I think you have to split the trade back from the pick. I am on record as saying if I was the GM and Deshaun Watson was there at #10 I'd have picked him and I can equally understand why the huge Mahomers on the board wanted him to be the pick. I never bought the "this is a bad Quarterback class" or "this is like 2013 all over again". It just didn't tally with what I saw when I looked at the tape. NFL teams clearly agreed as not only were 3 Quarterbacks picked in the top 12 but all 3 were picked after teams paid heavy prices to get up for them. Talking of price I thought that we could have got another late round fly pick had we really pushed it. If the Chiefs love Mahomes that much they were not going to risk losing him for the sake of their 6th round pick were they? I think you ask for that you might be able to chuck a pick at Chad Kelly possibly later on. I feel like the Bills have punted again on taking a Quarterback when there were guys that can play there and available to them. Feels like we stuck pretty much to the trade value chart when I think the selling team should always try for a little more.
The Bills Pick
Having said all that.... looking purely at the pick itself and the timing and value of it I like Tre'Davious White at #27. I had him and Quincy Wilson right there together on my board with 1st/2nd borderline grades based on tape and gut instinct was just that I liked White a little more. He is a realty good shadow coverage guy who seems to have a great feel for the routes receivers run and is always there right around the ball. I get that some will say why let Gilmore go then pick a corner in the 1st.... but the value was absolutely there at #27 and I expect he is our starting corner opposite Ronald Darby when we take the field against the Jets.
My Mock
Not the best night for the final mock in terms of exact matches... especially frustrating as three exact matches (Fournette and the Jags; Charlton and the Cowboys; and Howard and the Buccaneers have appeared in version 1 or 2 and then I changed). The final score was:
- 26 out of the 32 players who went in the first called correctly (Up from 23 out of 31 in 2016).
- only 2 exact matches - the two obvious ones Garrett and McCafffrey (down from 5 in 2016).
- 6 other matches where I got the position right but the player wrong (Up from 5 in 2016).
Player I was high on....
This was probably the Quarterback class as a whole. I was not at all stunned that 3 went in the first 12 picks. As I set out above I never thought this was the bad class some on here and even a few in the media wanted you to believe it was. I actually think all 3 have ended up in spots that are pretty good fits, particularly Watson and Mahomes. Watson was the guy for me who could start early if you give him a running game and a defense - both of which Houston has. Like a Big Ben or a Russell Wilson expect him to use his legs plenty early as he adjusts to the pros and tries to limit mistakes but he can win playing solid, sensible football. Like Dak did last year. He isn't going to be asked to chuck it 35 times a game. Mahomes was the guy who couldn't start early.... and he now doesn't have to. He has a year to watch, study, learn and tidy up some footwork issues. Alex Smith has this job for 2017 and then I imagine they compete in camp in 2018 which is the final year of Smith's contract. I suspect Mahomes takes over mid 2018 so long as he develops. Absolutely perfect spot for him.
Player I was down on....
I wouldn't say I was down on Jonathan Allen but I was not surprised he slid. A bit of a medical concern on the shoulder coupled with he just doesn't "pop" on tape. He is a solid football player, for sure, does a lot of things pretty well.... but when trying to work out where he excels it is harder. I think he is a 10 year plug and play starter, very consistent and will make a couple of pro-bowls... but I don't see him as having a shot to be a dominant NFL player and that is why he slid. The Redskins took advantage and they have a good football player at a very good price. The other one was OJ Howard. People just got way too high on him. He is too much of a projection for me I just don't see the production I'd want in college to consider a guy a top 10 pick. Top 20 pick? Sure. A nice fit in Tampa? Yes, sir. But when he was being talked of as a potential top 5 pick I always believed that to be a bit crazy.
Biggest shock of the night
Lattimore and Hooker sliding out of the top 10 was more of a shock to me than the slides of the two above. They were both phenomenal value for the teams that drafted them. Lattimore is the best corner that New Orleans has had in over a decade. He will be a star in this league. Other minor surprises were Evan Engram going before David Njoku and Garett Bolles being the first offensive lineman off the board. I think Bolles is a good player and I ended up with a high 2nd round grade on him but I expected Ramzyck, Robinson or Lamp to be first to go. That Lamp is still available is another surprise. He was the only genuine 1st round grade I give to an offensive lineman this year.
Worst pick
I actually don't think anyone made a WTF pick this year. I think the Browns taking Peppers at #25 when they have so many other needs was a surprise and I still consider that a reach as I do Adoree Jackson at #18 to the Titans but even in both of those cases I can see a logic of sorts to it. The Seahawks sliding out of the first with such a need on their offensive line and guys around that spot who could help would have come in for more criticism, even with the picks they acquired, if it wasn't for the fact that only Ramzcyk went in the 7 picks after their first trade down and they are guaranteed to have either Lamp or Robinson (and probably both) sitting there for them at #34.
What's left?
Malick McDowell is the best player left on my board (excluding poor old Sidney Jones). After him Zach Cunningham was another I had a 1st round grade on as was Lamp, Budda Baker and Dalvin Cook. There are a few possible fits for the Bills at #44 on left. My top 10 remaining:
1. Malick McDowell - DE/DT
2. Zach Cunningham - LB
3. Forrest Lamp - G/T
4. Budda Baker - S
5. Dalvin Cook - RB
6. Quincy Wilson - CB
7. Caleb Brantley - DT
8. Tim Williams - OLB
9. Cam Robinson - T
10. Teez Tabor - CB
Just after that 10 is where I get to a clutch of receivers with 2nd round grades and DeShone Kizer (not that I suspect they got the QB route).
ENJOY DAY 2
-
The Rueben Foster question is interesting at well. At 44 is that too good a value to pass?
Foster was picked at #31 by the 49ers.
-
Lol, now we are making up scenarios that didn't happen?
You don't think the Browns were trying to get up for Trubisky? I can assure you they were. I said for 2 days they might need to get to 2 and obviously someone else was trying to which is why Chicago paid such a high price to go up 1 spot.
-
Quiet you. It's all about the extra picks we can use on defensive backs.
I am not against the White pick. It makes sense to me once you have decided to trade back but the constant punting of drafting QBs high when we don't have one is just ridiculous. This time last year it was "wait for Watson he'll be great" now it is "wait for Darnold he'll be great" and by next year it will be wait for someone else and so on and so on and so on followed by "but Tyrod is the 20th best in the league" as though that means anything. Someone wake them up.
-
Malik McDowell. Zach Cunningham.
I'd love McDowell actually. He is the best player left on my board. Not an obvious "need" maybe but a hell of a player with a massive ceiling.
-
The perennial wait until next year. I thought this class was supposed to be 2013 all over again wasn't it?
Where are all the people parroting that absolute tosh now?
The Bills and their fans have played the "wait until next year" game too often. If Watson (who will play some as a rookie) lights it up in Houston the Buffalo Bills will have some serious, serious questions to answer about why they are gunshy to pick Quarterbacks.
They talk about culture change and having high character leaders in the locker room and then pass on a Quarterback with all the leadership traits and character that anyone could ask for. And Mahomes isn't far behind on those criteria either by the way. What is that in the background? It is the sound of spinning wheels.
-
Basically the Bills could have Lattimore the best CB in the draft
Instead they now have White, the 5th best CB in the draft
Plus an extra 3rd and an extra 2018 low 1st rounder
IMO they are ahead but only it if they make the extra 3rd round pick count
WR or OLB in the 2nd round?
jc
He was the 4th corner on my board if you include Sidney Jones and 3rd without. I'd certainly have taken him ahead of Jackson who went to Tennessee.
Him at 27 is fine in value terms to me. Do I wish we'd stayed at 10 and picked my QB of choice? Sure. But it isn't fair to Tre'Davius White to dismiss him as a player because I'd rather the team did something else at a pick 2 hours earlier.
-
Budda Baker
Cam Robinson
Zay Jones
Zach Cunningham
Any of those 4 I would be very happy with.
-
Cunningham
White
Baker
Any of those 3.
-
Yea Cunningham I really like too.
-
Tre'Davius White
Jarrad Davis
Budda Baker
-
Hope you took a nap it's going to be a long morning for yah!
I did. I watched the first half of Manchester City v Manchester United... that was enough to send anyone to sleep. Coffee is in the pot. I am ready to go.
-
@rapsheet
A bit of a surprise, but Im hearing #OleMiss TE Evan Engram is making a push to sneak into the 1st round. Could see three TEs in round 1.
What does that even mean. How does one make a push. It is up to teams now... players can do no more.
2017 NFL Draft: Round 2 & 3 Discussion
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I'd be surprised if any is available without a trade up to be honest. Cook might, but if he is it suggest the teams have reason to stay away given the unknown of his off the field stuff.