AKC

It's always good to have other fans joining us who are interested in exploring and expanding the information available to improve our understanding of the factors influencing the W/L record of the Bills. The more I consider that 20% difference in the Offensive/Defensive investments of the Bills (offense first) versus the best teams (defense first), the more significant it appears.

I don't really find any substantial disagreement with that at all- I'd be surprised if any great GM had a static positional formula they applied on draft day. At the same time, I have no doubt all the good managers do have- if not a formal positional formula- an innate understanding of the more likely positional landmines. For instance, in this season where the WR position is so weak that there's not even a consensus top 15 or 20 pick, I'm guessing that no top GM would even think about reaching out for one of these likely early round busts early even if they had a great need at WR. I never intended the study to support the existence of hard or static rules- but there is the chance it does offer a little bit of a look into the understanding that the best managers have about which positions are the more likely to make your team better in the long haul versus those that are risky enough to find a different means of addressing them unless you're so rooster-sure about a guy at a premium pick level like 11 that you know he can't miss and you take him because you'd take him even if you were picking at the 5 spot.

Without a doubt, it's always interesting to look at the way the best do it versus the worst. I should qualify that- for some of us it's interesting. In my opinion the best team's tendencies have some reveals in the draft- and it'll be fun to watch it play out over the years. One thing that is for sure- there's a difference in the ways the Bills have been doing it and the way the best teams have. Maybe our friend Ramius will take the time to expand the study to the whole league, and we can see some even more revealing patterns as every team's early investment is on display.

My study is complete. It shows that the best teams in the game invest more at thet top of the draft in defense than the Bills, that the best teams invest in TE where the Bills have not and that the best teams substantially favor DL investment over WR while the Bills do just the opposite. You have demanded earlier that the only information you would accept was a complete study of all teams in the NFL and that anything else would be incomplete. If you'd care to do a study of all the NFL teams for the same period, I'm all ears. If instead you wish to display your own hypocrisy by trying to make some point supporting your desire to reach for a WR at the 11 pick, I'm not interested in listening. Let me know when you "complete" the study you insisted would be the only valid use of the positional trending information, or for goodness sakes give yourself a break from embarrassing yourself.

Trend- 1. the general course or prevailing tendency The tendancy of Super Bowl teams to select specific positions early in the draft is precisely what the study reveals. I'll be at the bar before you. I need to do a walkthrough of the scene of the Draft Party and it's two blocks from my office. Slainte'

The methodology used is exactly what has been portrayed- it's an "equity" or "budget' percentage study of the positional drafting trends of Super Bowl teams versus the Buffalo Bills in the most coherent and valuable time window. If you had some background in math, and you took the time to read the methodology I offerd in the originsal post, you could have done something productive with the time you've wasted making false statements over and over and over in this string. But keep saying them- even if no one else is paying attention to you, it's clearly more soothing to you than recognizing you don't know even the most basic rules of establishing a mathemetical study.

A "valid analysis" is based upon an accurate protrayal of the study. My title and methodology clearly states that it is a study of "Super Bowl Teams" trends versus the "Buffalo Bills". If I said it was study of trends of "The Whole NFL" versus the "Buffalo Bills" your false statement would then be accurate. It's especially tough when the math is exactly what it's been represented to be. Facts are the toughest of all opponents, although as is clearly recorded here, that doesn't stop some from contesting them.

If you'd like to study trend from the 1920s to the 1940s, I'd invite you to do it. In my case I thought a contemporary look at the draft offered more meaningful information. BTW, as I mentioned earlier, all this is explained in my orginal post, where the methodology is outlined and detailed. There is a clear decline in Super Bowl teams beyond 5 years, and unlike you I'm more interested in how the Bill's are trending versus the best teams in the league- not the Raiders. 7 years is the average a 1st round pick stays with their original team. You might want to take my original control group (Super Bowl Teams) and post that along with your findings about the Chief's trends to one of their fan message boards- It is interesting that the Chiefs- who won their Division in 03 and went back to the Playoffs after the 06 season, have that DL/WR ratio favoring the DL like the Super Bowl teams, whereas Buffalo's ratio is higher on the WR side, like Detroits. They also have the "drafting more D" trend down versus the Bills, who ignore that trend among the Super Bowl (and as you discovered here, some Playoff teams too) by investing substantially more in offensive players early.

It surely wouldn't give us any trending information. Now if instead, you took the past 7 seasons and considered every pick from all the past 5 Super Bowl teams and gave it the equity value of where the pick was made in teh first two rounds, and put those cumulative trends up agains the Bill's numbers- you'd have something there! (By the way- that's exactly what I've done- you should check it out)

I agree it's curious- although I found it far more enlightening to discover that the Buffalo Bills use a much higher percentage of their draft equity early in the draft on offensive players versus the top football teams of today, and that the best teams spend almost 10% of their round 1 and 2 equity on TEs while we spend nada. But if you think you can learn something by compiling the team colors of all our players Pee Wee leagues, I'll be supportive of you doing the work! It's always good to see someone get off the bench and pitch in, regardless of the quality of their contribution. Welcome aboard!

My study is about where players are drafted, with the position of the first player in round one having a higher "equity" value than the 5th player taken in the 2nd round. If you are unable to grasp something so fundamentally critical to understanding the strategy of the best teams, it's no wonder mathematics of drafting trends would confuse you so. The methodology is sound. My study shows how the Buffalo Bills trend against recent Super Bowl teams. If you'd like to find out what the trend is for all the teams that play in the NFC West, you're free to use my methodology and perform that study. I'm pretty sure here on a Buffalo Bill's Message Boad my study of the Bill's versus the best teams in the league will be of more interest. At least to those of us who are interested in figuring out how the Bill's can improve.

I've proven that there are some trends that are visible mathematically. Namely that the Bills buck the trends of the top teams in the draft in a few areas, specifically putting more equity in offensive versus defensive players, using top equity on a TE and in the relationship between the ratio of DL spending versus WR spending. The math is perfectly sound and your inability to find a single problem with it is further evidence. You might consult anyone with a backgound in statistics, who will tell you that my math is an appropriate approach to studying the trending of draft picks by position in the first two rounds of the last 7 drafts. You on the other hand have proven nothing more than that you won't accept simple trending mathematics when the numbers contradict your instincts. I could feel sorry for you, but I've got better things to do with my time ;-) Once again, stop whining because the mathematical truth doesn't line up with your fantasy, and if you are so insistent on knowing what the trend has been with the Houston Texans, go do the math yourself! You're a model of consistency!

It'll be on the Westside- I'll get transpo set up for cheap so there won't be any driving.

As in life, those in the stands always have more to say than those on the playing field. I've invited you onto the field. I'll anxiously await the results of your "comprehensive" study ;-)

I would agree if we were talking about a statistical study- you can increase and decrease the blinders and end up discovering little if anything. But the study here is simply a trending study- it uses objective draft history and points out clear, substantial differences between the way the best teams have done it for 10 years versus the Bills. How much that trend means is up to the person considering it- I offer it for consideration and you have done that. Thanks for the reasoned response.

Now you're adding subjectivity to the math- you're assuming that there's a "light on" in every front office. Look how hard it is to get fans to recognize that better teams use more early draft equity for defensive players- what's to say 12 team's front offices aren't just as oblivious?

I've got your first- Look forward to meeting you. The Hotel is nothing more than a place to pass out- it's decked out like an Austin Powers movie- but it's truly a stumble across to/from the bar. There'll be a Bill's party Saturday night too- we'll probably get a shuttle and go to it in one vehicle.

You're hung up on subjectives- the study is based upon known numbers. There's nothing subjective- it proves that Pioli has spent 35% of his early draft investment in his DLine, 17% at TE and only 11% at WR. That's over a time when the Bills numbers are 16% DL, 0% TE and 18% WR. You don't have to agree with Pioli, you don't have to think his team is doing it right, but the numbers don't lie. What he's doing is there for anyone objective to consider, and to use that known information to consider whether the clear differences between his positional draft approach and the approach of the Bills has something to do with our W/L record against his team over those past 7 years studied.

There's a Days Inn across the street- here's a link- Days Inn Busbys!

I've offered the methodology- if you're half as smart as you play yourself off to be you can simply do the analysis you think you need. I'm concerned with how the Bills have drafted versus how the best teams do it- and that's the study I've done. It shows that we're deviating substantially from the best teams in these areas: A) We have drafted offensive talent with 58% of our available investment in rounds 1 and 2 of the past 7 drafts, while the teams who have played in the past 5 Super Bowls have used more of their draft investment in rounds 1 and 2 of the same drafts more often to draft defensive players. B) The Super Bowl teams have invested a huge percentage (9%) in Tight Ends at the top of the draft, we've invested 0%. C) The Super Bowl teams have spent nearly one quarter of their total early draft total on their DLines, while spending less than 14% at the WR position. This is a stark contrast to the Buffalo Bill's spend, which amounts to 18% at the WR postion to date and less than 16% on our DL. You don't like the numbers because they don't fit the fantasy you have about reaching for a WR this year at 11, but that doesn't change the trends. This is a mathematically mapped out trend of the top teams versus the Bills. Quit whining about the Falcons and 49ers information- if you want it use the math I outlined completely in the original post. I even offered to send my spreadsheet to anyone not a member of the "WR Reach at 11 Club" to conduct it for you. It's time for you to stojan up or let someone else in the stall.

"Bogus Stats"- meaning any you can't grasp? You didn't do to well in math if you can't figure out the simple equation used to establish draft investments of the top teams by position. The methodology is included for anyone who likes to consider tendencies, and the equation used is a perfect charting of tendencies of the Super Bowl teams versus the Bills over the past 7 drafts. I know you continue to support our "Matt Millen" draft tendencies of late, but I'd like to see a change.

Fearing what you don't understand is common among many primates. We'll keep seat warm for you even if you're cheering for a reach at WR! PM me if you need directions. Because they show Buffalo taking more draft direction from Matt Millen than the top teams in the league, and Ramius appears to find Millen's work admirable. I'll let Bob Lamb tell you where you'll find the best busts at Busbys- it's his specialty.

This year's annual Los Angeles Bill's Backers Draft Party, sponsored by a contingent of TSW alumni, takes place at 3110 Santa Monica Blvd. in Santa Monica. More details and directions on our wesbite- TSW West Draft Party You won't want to miss the action- Big Bob Lamb will once again be balancing the Hot Waitress Contest against his deft management of the Draft Board. You'll discover whether Kelly the Dog was actually raised by a feral pack of wolves. And we'll be holding the "Find The Lost Ramius Marbles" contest. The winner will recieve signed busts of Peter Warrick, Koren Robinson and Mike Williams. PM me with any questions-

If you aren't feeding the key position talent for 7 straight drafts, you sure won't be up there for long ;-)

Dude- I chose Super Bowl teams because my interest runs to discovering the trends in their drafting styles that differ from the Buffalo Bills. Those trends are: The Bills favor WRs over DL and the good teams like DL over the WR by a huge margin. The Bills favor drafting Offense and the good teams favor drafting Defense. The good teams have by a large margin used round 1 and 2 equity on the TE position- while the Bills have not. It's not hard to see- the numbers prove it- or you can do as others and pull a WR jersey over your eyes and kick and scream that it can't be true. (But it is).