AKC

Bet the ranch on it.

As you point out, the upside of big guys in the middle is that there are examples of some who are productive well into their 30s. Big Ted may be a little different- IIRC he had a leg issue from very early in his career that he eventually shook off and played effectively for a long time. Those teams giving up on him early seem pretty well justified in figuring he was not going to become a top player. Stroud's situation is in many ways almost a mirror opposite- he came into the league and dominated in his mid-20s, suffering a rapid slide over the past 3 years in production. The team that he gave those best years to went into the offseason shopping him- and it's not like they're a rebuilding team. It makes no sense for a team in the hunt for a Lombardi to shop a DT they feel is going to have a good season- you know better than that and so do the Jags. One thing that is pretty clear from the actions of the Jags is that they don't think Stroud is going to have a great season this year. I know there's a whole lot of Bill's fans making that prediction, but the team who actively shopped him does not think that's the case. Let's hope and pray the Jags are wrong- but I wouldn't bet the fan side of this over the front office of the Jags. They simply know more about Marcus Stroud than any other organization in football.

We screwed ourselves in the long run by passing over guys like Ngata, a top tier player at the position. This past draft we were 5 spots too low to get a difference maker at DT. What you do is draft great DTs when they're on the board and you're on the clock. The good teams realize it. We act sometimes like we're being run by the offense-crazed media and fans instead of a front office who is paying attention to what is making teams better on Sundays. And what makes teams better right now, in this day and age, is great Defensive interiors. What's your bet? Are you saying that the JAX Jags, considered to be right in the mix for a Super Bowl appearance, would give up on a guy who could play like Marcus Stroud played for them int he beginning of this decade? It sounds like you think the Bill's FO has some credentials that suggest they are the equal or better talent evaluators when compared to the Jags? Recent history, unfortunately says otherwise. We'd all like to see Stroud have a magic season. But the chances of that are fairly remote.

If the deterioration of Marcus Stroud continues on the path it's been on for the past 3 seasons, we'd be expecting about 3 or 4 total games from him this season. A rotation of McCargo, Williams and the 275 pound Spencer Johnson may inspire confidence in some quarters, but not mine. You appear convinced that we've upgraded from one of the worst DLines in the NFL in 2007. Even if it plays out that we've "upgraded" from one of the worst lines in the league, the real question is whether we've closed much of the gap between the best teams' DLines and our own. And on that point, we aren't even in the same league IMO.

Kyle has a natural low center of gravity and power when he's playing low, something DLine coaches spend their careers trying to teach to most of their players. When he's left to go upfield using that skill, he can be a very disruptive force becasue he's so good at it. One of the biggest drawbacks for him is that like all of our linemen the past 2 seasons, he's been asked to make his initial pushand then get up high to take away passing lanes. Guys like McCargo who already play high are naturally suited to play the style we've been demanding, but with Kyle it has taken the best part of his game away. If Williams is given the chance as a rotational player to come into the game and bring his best pressure, he could be an incredibly important #3 or #4 DT in a solid rotation. The problem is that you have to have much better talent in front of the #3 and #4, and right now that's our huge question. As in most off-seasons, you have fans who feel that any positional FA acquisition has us "keepin' up with the Joneses". Our problem at DT is that we were simply so far behind the "Joneses" that our 2008 offseason only moved us from "awful" to "possibly improved", and nowhere near a goal of "competitive with the best team's rotations". Certainly the position of Defensive Tackle has become more and more important to success in the NFL as mutations of the West Coast Offense have erupted around the league. The best teams are paying attention. It's very easy to look at what we've done as more along the lines of paying lip service to the trend.

If you look at the Super Bowl doorknockers, I see teams that make more of a commitment to DT than the bad teams. I see teams carrying more, and in most cases a higher quality of DT, than we do. You don't have to look outside of our own division- consider the one AFC East rival who looks at the Bills as 2 wins on their schedule every year. They don't even play a 4-3, yet they are rock solid at DT with 3 first round picks among the 5 they carried on their roster last season. We're talking about a 3-4 team with 5 DTs- that's 60% of their DT rotation in under 30 yr-old 1st round picks, and each of those 3 considered starting quality in the NFL. Outside of the obvious fact that we play in a 4-3 and by design have even more needs than they do, we carried no more DTs than that 3-4 team did last year. We're only rostering one first rounder under 30, a guy who is not even considered starting quality on his own team at this point, let alone NFL starting quality. We have another over 30 first rounder who was released due to the exponential drop in his productivity/durability over the past 3 seasons. The fact is, the #3 DT in NE* is considered by most NFL talent experts as better than ANY DT on our roster. I recognize you can't change the planet overnight. But I also recognize that we're still undercommitted to DT when compared to our best opponents. With some real magic from Stroud and bigtime support behind him, our schedule offers a real opportunity. At the same time, based upon the type of DT commitment made by the best teams in the league, IMO we're still a below .500 football team entering '08.

You’re covering a few different issues as I see it. The successful Cover-2 Ds have played a NT/UT scheme, not conceding two outside Guard shade DTs instead. We'll basically be playing the latter this year from a personnel standpoint, regardless of where our players are lining up. Kyle Williams as a ‘tweener there might be considered the exception, but the balance of our guys are 3s, and Williams- while game and fairly athletic, is not a starting quality DT in the NFL. He'd be a very good rotational guy if he was playing behind one of the best DTs in the game, but that's simply not the situation in Buffalo. There's no doubt McCargo and Stroud are not the 312 pound players they're listed at- both are bigger but both still are gap splitters and not control guys. At 275 pounds, let's assume we won't want to see a lot of Spencer Johnson in on running downs. So the fact is, while the Bills did bring in a former Pro Bowl quality DT plus add a reserve rotational guy, the better opponents we face have multiple proven quality DTs in their rotations. We simply don't. Could we get incredibly lucky and have Stroud make a miracle comeback this season, plus have our second line of defense survive the crashing, unobstructed OLinemen they should expect to have in their faces all year long? We'll all hope for that to happen- but once again, the Buffalo Bills ignored what the good teams understand- you must have quality in your defensive interior to beat short passing offenses. To call the unit we have a "quality" unit defies the facts about their acquisitions- Jacksonville expects to compete for a shot at the Lombardi this year, and teams in that position do not allow DTs they expect to play like the 2004 Stroud of '04 move on. The best hopes of the 2008 Buffalo Bills are that the Jacksonville Jaguars made a very bad personnel decision in allowing Stroud to go. On the other hand, if the Jaguars sense for his productivity in 2008 comes true, it's likely to be one long, awful year of watching the Buffalo Bills try and stop anyone with a credible running attack.

The Bills picked up Marcus Stroud (last great season in 2004) and a backup DT rumored to be a "Sack Specialist"; never mind that he hasn't had a single sack since the first month of the 2007 season. It's like we signed Isaac Bruce and Marty Booker in Free Agency and some of our fan base has decided we're now among the elite in the league at WR. The problem with their fantasy (outside of the question mark Stroud's health represents) is that we were so thin at DT last year that we eneded up the #31 defense in the league, with anyone and everyone running down our throat when they needed to. Most fans have their heads so far up QBs and WRs butts that they don't recognize the smart front offices are using far more early draft equity at DT than the losers of the league like the Bills. If you want to beat West Coast influenced offenses, you must have superior talent at DT, and a bevy of it, to disrupt the short passing game. We can't claim to have even one single superior talent at DT entering the season. But here we go again- the fan base all atwitter at how James "The Pistol" Harvey will make us deadly in the Red Zone, while the smartest football teams put a greater focus on their Defense, and very specifically their DLine, to get to the big game.

You're merely pointing out that you don't know sh-- from shinola whan it comes to the risks of owning a business. Nothing's more crucial to a bar owner than the liquor license, and the fact that you believe a bar owner would somehow be remiss if he were to protect it from suspension by removing any scumbag who illegally brings his own liquor into the bar suggests that you're just another fan transfixed by the cult of celebrity. Or I guess the other likelihood regarding anyone taking the position that thieving from bar owners is inconsequential would be those who do it regularly?

Since we don't live in Cuba, I'm much more a supporter of allowing the bar owner to make that judgment. Shouldn't the person who's got all the risk decide whether the value of having a scumbag pouring drinks out of a flask to save a few bucks outweighs other considerations like the suspension of his liquor license? Of course there were market considerations beyond simple strategic error in the losses of Clements and AW, but among the points I'm making is that losing the services of a "#12" pick CB is worse today than losing the services of a "#12" pick RB, due fundamentally to the far easier replacement of the RB with help who doesn't need to know your playbook. Our defensive system doesn't afford bringing in any CB and having him start next week, which is something a RB can do effectively.

Defensive linemen don't concede or abandon gaps or run stunts in the interior of goal line formations, under any circumstances, in any defense, in any era. I recognize that's way over your head to grasp, so instead of waiting for your Gump-like response, I'll save you the trouble- "Yeah, but where did you buy your Bill's playbook?!" I swear the collective level of intelligence on this board has fallen more in the past year than during the balance of the period since TSW was initially published.

Actually, if you get a chance to go back and watch it you'lll see he abandonded his gap and just happened to be lucky enough to make the play. It was virtually a total lack of discipline- it's difficult to give him high marks for breaking the defense. More often than not, the result of losing your discipline like that ends up in 6 points. I am hoping that he lives up to his draft position this year, but at this point in time his inability to break into the starting rotation at DT hardly supports any great confidence in that happening. There is the counter argument that we want a strong A and B interior rotation, but if you have a game-changer, you want him to be on the A team. So far there is no indication that our staff sees JM being a game-changer this season.

Maybe in that vacuum you call your mind, but in the real world there are many bar owners who promote their bartenders liberal use of comps for customers deemed beneficial to their business.

We wouldn't feel the same way about these guys if they'd left the scene of an accident where they hit a pedestrian- regardless of any flimsy excuses anyone might make for that specific action- and then in an act of total cowardice they didn't come out the next day and apologize to the victim. An argument may be made for the error in judgement of leaving the scene, or if you prefer the "didn't realize he had hit her" wink-wink- but in either circumstance it was a coward's move to not say anything the next day, regardless of any excuses or scenarios. I'd bet you'd have demanded that your son call and apologize right away if he were in similar circumstances, no matter whether the family lawyer told him to hide or not. I hope you never face anything remotely like that as a father, but I have no doubt you'd demand more of your family. Not being just as tough on a 23 year old multi-millionaire doesn't make sense to me. The players you mentioned before as well as I recall never showed cowardice in the face of adversity- but Lynch did exactly that. And the other information that has since been revealed paints a picture of a scofflaw with little respect for the same rules you and I not only follow every day, but in many cases embrace.

I agree. And I also don't think they should be cut any slack due to their celebrity, as Lynch is by way too many Bill's fans IMO. I use the same measure- since I've become an adult, I've judged every adult who I was aware was bringing their own alcohol into a bar against the rules of the bar (or like in Lynch's case, in violation of the law), as nothing more than scumbags. I can't imagine why I would establish a different measure for Lynch than those who did the same before him, some of whom I know could have made some (specious) argument about finances that Lynch can't possibly make. Bottom line- if for any reason you don't intend to be a customer of a bar, then you have no business being in it. It's not a library or public park, it's a business. Someone has gone to the trouble to obtain the license and establish and ambience they thyink will be attractive to convince people to come into their business and help pay the bills and salaries associated with it by purchasing the products they offer, and anyone cheating that business owner is a scumbag, not to mention a cheat and a thief. But that's just my opinion.

Interesting how you've just judged the hundreds of thousands of bartenders in this country as cheats and thieves. Apparently hypocrisy is best served from a flask. Drink up.

You're drifting far, far away from stealing directly out of the bar owners cash register. I'd say the one thing we've firmly established is that if you were a bartender, there's not a chance you would report all your tips. Don't mistake your own choices for those made by other people. And all your excuses for Lynch's embarrasing disregard of honorable and decent lifestyle decisions doesn't change that he's half the human being of anyone I consider a good friend. And that's too bad, because I'll bet that the vast majority of the players on our roster are good guys.

I agree with you that 12 year olds sneaking a bottle of Cutty Sark into the movies is hardly the same as an adult going into a place of business and cheating that business, not to mention cheating every other paying customer. When that adult happens to be a hi-profile multi-millionaire who has ALREADY been exposed for the same crime, it's almost incomprehensible that an average citizen would defend them. Pop culture surely has a dark side. But when VOR opens his bar, we'll all make sure to stop by and grab a coke or two.

I'm hoping we've learned our lesson and we stop using that top draft equity at a position like RB that may be addressed a different way. The shift towards defensive talent at the top among the best teams is convincing enough that we should be looking for FA or talent down the board at RB while creating the type of defense the best teams put on the field on Sundays. We've seen below average offenses win recent Lombardis playing opposite top tier defenses, but the opposite has not happened. The wildly incorrect assumption that the Rams won with a bad defense holds no weight- they were a very, very good defensive football team. Even an underperforming Indy D came alive in the playoffs the year they won. Contrary to the false hype, the *s won because of the league's most reliable D. Tampa, Baltimore- I think the record is way too clear. We're at least a draft and FA period away from being competitive on defense. That means we have absolutely no chance this coming season of being an overall competitive team against the top tier of the league. Playing a Schedule Lite might give us some fun days during the season, but we're really playing this year for 2009. If we draft a RB with our top pick in 2009, we'll then move that marker to playing for 2010. On the other hand, if we are able to build the type of defense for 2009 that pressures opposing offenses in the middle (a-la the NY Giants) while not conceding the run, our offense will all of a sudden become a fan darling. And like always the offense will get an inordinate amount of the press and fan attention. But the big games- and any Buffalo Bill's turn-around, will be won on the other side of the ball.

Turns out it's just a pledge requirement for Gamma Theta Wilfork*.

You and I both strongly support the good guys who wear our uniform, and we will always have that in common. Lynch's problems with the local Police Department establish a pretty clear picture of the disdain he and his family have for "rules". I know one thing I hate about going back home is that ticky tack enforcement of the vehicle code when compared to California, but nonetheless those are the rules and if you're located there you damn sure had better find a way to live with them. Multiple local bars have asked him to leave because he's making drinks from his flask. Some of my best friends have been/are bartenders. I like bars and spend lots of time in them. Over the years I've been given a head's up by different bartenders about people they knew who bought sodas and were known to carry flasks and make their own drinks. I know what I thought of every one of them- I thought they were scumbags. I treated every one of them from the point I learned about their bad judgement accordingly. Now just because a guy is a decent football player for my favorite sports team, do I throw away the position I've always taken with people who cheat that way? It doesn't make any sense. I can't see why I would hold the rest of the world to one standard and then allow Lynch to get away with a smarmy Oakland attitude and somehow try to justify it. I despise that as a team we've taken to bringing in people with attitudes like Lynch's, and I think it might very well be why we're seeing this one contract and fleeing going on. There are good guys who play the position. The last three we've drafted are not "good guys". I will guess that this incident, brought on fully and solely by Lynch himself, will be used by Lynch and his agent to "explain" why they are looking outside of Buffalo once he's a FA. And that will be an ironic event from my seat- he made his bed and will soon be asking how anyone could possibly want to sleep in it. On the other hand, if he's got some desire and any brains at all, he'll recognize that he needs to put up some big numbers to make his departure from Buffalo more lucrative. So we'll both hope that adds up to some good seasons out of him before he gives us the finger officially.

I must say it has been quite a burden- the miracles, and then the beatification- but then again, in the instance in my life when I hit a pedestrian with my car I did stop to assist. Make no mistake- I have close lawyer friends who would have advised me to run off like a coward and there would be those in our culture who would find that quite fine "within the confines of our legal system", but do forgive me for reaching an alternative conclusion. Now say three Hail Marys and two Our Fathers before cleansing yourself by consuming a fistfull of the natural product that exits your rectum. A sprig of parsley as a chaser will be acceptable.

I feel that way about the talent we've seen move on at the Cornerback position. I feel a lot less that way about watching the low-character or narcisist dregs we've drafted at RB go on. The garbage that's come to light about Lynch's very public low-life activities makes me believe our biggest problem at retaining RBs may simply be the things we're ignoring on draft day. There're enough Terrell Davis types to not start thinking about using our high picks for good guys at other positions while finding a RB who is considered a good citizen by the people he's spent the past 22 years around. Maybe the trick is simply verifying that those people he's been around for those 22 years are also considered good citizens ;-)

The trend favors the "believers"- there just are no longer the "career" running backs you see opening and closing 11 or 12 year careers with the same team. It may have been common for the first 70 years of the league, but even before Emmit Smith pulled on an Arizona Cardinals helmet the team back was almost extinct. Too much advantage methinks to the young bodies in this league that has become more punishing over time, and moreso on Running Backs than on any other position. Feature running backs, once the provenance of the top of the draft board in round one, now seem just as likely to be there at the end of the 2nd round or later.

I'm onboard for the history lesson- And if I've paid enough attention in class, Lynch will be a one contract Bill who will have a not so favorable exit and ultimately be derided by a huge majority of our fan base for his lack of gratitude. I guess one might be considered "ahead of the curve" if they saw Lynch as a punk-a$$ scofflaw right now---