AKC

I'd be interested in your handling of the following scenario also: You're running the Bill's War Room and the 11 pick stays in our hands without any trade-down. It's our turn to pick but our draft board has 16 other players in front of the first WR on our board who's available. Do we take a WR we clearly have judged we are reaching for because of our need, pay him money we have already determined is far too much for his talent level, and pass on the 16 other players at other positions we have rated much higher?

What's the biggest reason for the drop in yards (40%) and catches (20%) in Carlson's Senior campaign versus Junior? My question about Nelson is really limited to whether he'll be on the field in our regular offense much in 2008- do you think he can put Reed on the bench? Give me some insight into how you would handle this scenario: You're running the Bill's War Room and the 11 pick stays in our hands without any trade-down. It's our turn to pick but our draft board has 16 other players in front of the first WR on our board who's available. Do we take a WR we clearly have judged we are reaching for because of our need, pay him money we have already determined is far too much for his talent level, and pass on the 16 other players at other positions we have rated much higher?

Carlson looked bad running at Indy, although I understand he had a later workout and improved in that bad 40 time with the claim he'd had the flu in Indy- Is he really ready to come in and block effectively at the NFL level? If he's as good a blocker as reputed, it seems likely he could get productive time on the field in 2008. On WR Jordy- does he have any realistic chance of pushing Josh Reed to the bench over the course of the season, or would he simply be a project playing in extra wideout sets?

Au Contraire. My position has never shifted- until the Buffalo Bills have a complete rotation at DT, we'll be a team opponents look forward to beating up on Sundays. It's predicted there won't be a top 11 DT available when we pick, so it would be idiotic to reach for a DT we've got rated #30 at the 11 spot. Just as it would be idiotic to draft a WR we've rated #30 at the 11 pick. The posters worming around trying to misrepresent my clearly stated position are those who are insisting that we are best served taking any WR, no matter of his true upside, at the 11 pick. I'm looking back at some of these "valid claims" you bring up, gems like "Tennessee's strategy of drafting has had no better results than the Bill's". I'm sure it's discouraging for you to be left on that side of the discussion, finding yourself aligned with such nonsense. As to not having the discussion open to the difference between taking a WR or DT at the 11 pick, I've clearly in the record said that among the vast pool of draft analysts, the consensus is that the best bet at WR is probably no better than about the 20th player in the draft. I've invited you to produce draft experts who claim there's a top 11 WR- and I see no offering from you. Now the math here is a little too easy- if the best WR is a 20, and we're drafting 11th, it doesn't take an MIT grad to figure this one out. We should NOT make a major reach like that- it's the sign of a bad team versus a good and disciplined front office.

I've fully acknowledged what we've been doing. I've given the team credit for moving in the right direction. I've also gone on to point out how woefully inadequate the current actions are compared to the best teams in the league. You'll waste a lot of your time trying to find any post where I've suggested: "The ONLY way a team can be good is to draft DTs high regularly and stock up on as many as possible even if other areas are in great need." I realize Ramius has oversimplified it again and again that way so you may be adopting that from his posts, but you won't find it in any of mine. I have steadfastly held that a common trait of most of the best teams in the league is a far higher equity stake in the DL, and especially DT, versus the bottom-feeders like Detroit and Buffalo. And the numbers prove that to be true.

Not to mention he'd been working up a business plan to put an authentic Mexican Restaurant in downtown Buffalo based upon a favorite of his from his childhood neighborhood.

Teams with a solid DT rotations with both quality and depth are in a position to look to other positions in the draft. Contrary to your obvious opinion, let me tell you right now that we don't have a solid rotation of DTs. My clear and alliterated observation is that a MAJOR COMPONENT OF SUCCESSFUL FRANCHISES is the use of early draft equity on DL, and specifically DT. You have tried to morph that into some imbecile statement like THE ONLY WAY TO SUCCEED IS TO DRAFT ONLY DEFENSIVE TACKLES but that's simply not being honest. I understand you believe the Bills get better by getting one of the best receivers available in the upcoming draft. I don't argue that the Bills don't need help at WR nor doubt that the Bills might get better by drafting the right receiver in the upcoming draft; I just don't believe the receiver that makes us better will be one available at the #11 pick. I think THAT receiver, if we make that mistake, will continue to cripple the Bills and keep us a bottom-feeding team. Well Dibs- that's EXACTLY what I've been saying for 3 years on this board. We're now close enough to do something to correct it. We'll see what happens. On a side note- I still don't understand you and Steely Dan insisting that the work of the Titans front office should be disregarded as some model of inteptitude akin to our own? That's exactly the kind of failure to recognize what's being done right around the league that I just astounding anyone could miss. Do the other 509 of your posts offer the same depth of football aptitude and observation as this one?

OK, let's break it down. I've made the very specific charge that the Buffalo Bills have spent so much less draft equity on DTs versus the better teams in the league that it is keeping us a bottom-feeder, or if you prefer, the #31 defense in the NFL. During the discourse, I cite the Titans as a team who have made a major commitment to DTs in their draft strategy. Steely Dan decides to challenge the Titans as a good example by bringing up their record, failing of course to point out that while it's been a long time since the Titans knocked us out of our last playoff game and went on to the Super Bowl, they've returned to postseason play regularly while we've been spending more early draft equity on WRs than any other position. Is there some part of the above that isn't clear? His obvious contention is that the Titans aren't really any better than the Bills, and that's laughable. It's the whole problem of all the WR obsessed bunch in nutshell. The Titans are competitive, and part of that success is due to their insistance on having a premium DT rotation.

You shouldn't make this so easy ;-)

When we've got someone in here trying to sneak by us their notion that the Bill's draft strategy of the past decade has been more successful than the Titan's, it's hard to imagine any discussion with them being represented as "arguing".

Chicago played in the 2007 Super Bowl (right after shoring up their DT position in the top of the draft). Minnesota, Baltimore and Tenn? All top 5 run defenses in the NFL in 2007. Maybe having a top defense or playing in the Super Bowl isn't important to you. I know some of the Fantasy people around here would be most enthusiastic about our prospects each approaching season if we only drafted QBs/RBs and WRS and just kept 11 guys on the roster to play that darned defense. But the big leagues just don't work the same way. The fact that you dis the Titans regular playoff appearances is a good sign that you are totally out of touch with the power of a good defense. And if you don't understand what a good defense does for a team, how could I possible expect you to recognize that the best teams invest their highest draft equity in quality DLine prospects? And there we have it! At least you've gone out on a limb here- there is not one single credible national draft analyst who agrees with you. Now usually we can find one service willing to rate an Ed Gein over a Ted Ginn, but not this year- you're all on your own there! Sweed a top 5 player in this draft - Got it!

The only "oversimplification" in this string is your continued suggestion that anyone ever suggested no team should ever draft a WR in the first round. WR is an acknowledged weakness in the draft and we're picking 11. Show me all the draft analyses with ANY receiver in this draft picked as a top 11 talent this year. And your insistance on trying to simplify my equity analysis of defensive line talent to something I've never said still rings hollow even in the vacuum you're viewing it in- Our current roster consumes more of our first two-round draft equity on WR than any other position on the team. I've shown that many of the top teams in the league don't build rosters that way- instead they have more equity in DTs than in WRs at the top of the draft. You appear to be happy to risk the #11 pick and possibly end up with another Josh Reed, and I beleive we'll be better of considering other options. Options I think it's demonstrated the smart teams use- taking top DLine talent when available at the top of the draft. It's all about equity. I'd prefer you recognize the equity equation that I've highlighted all through the string than have you continue falling into the "only drafting DTs" or "DTs can't score" nonsense. There are some in the string who recognize what I've laid out- the top tier teams who built those successful teams with a heavy equity payment in the early part of the draft on DL, and specifically DT. You continue to try to find some exception, using (of all things) a 3-4 team, and even then that team has one of the best DL rotations in the league. You are free to predict that the Bills rushing defense woes have been solved by bringing in what appears to be a twilight player, and I fully recognize that there have been plenty of examples of twilight DTs having a lot bigger tank than they were credited with, but EVEN if he plays well our rotation is still shy the number of quality players our better opponents have there. I for one won't be happy if we make a reckless reach for the next Mike Williams, Koren Robinson, Peter Warrick or David Boston- all taken before the 11th pick of the 1st round. I think we can do a whole lot better.

Pittsburgh has Casey Hampton, a monster DT in the middle of their 3-4 defense who is supported by 4 more big guys to keep their rotation of interior bodies up to the task they accomplish when the go on the field Sundays- the task of being the #1 Defense in the NFL in 2007. Buffalo has no Casey Hampton. We also don't have the 4 other quality support people. And of even more concern should be that we play a 4-3 rotational defensive interior scheme, whereas Pittsburgh puts extra roster depth at OLB because of their 3-4 based D. We have a guy who USED to be a Casey Hampton quality player, but has not shown that for two full seasons. We have no idea right now what we have with Stroud. We also have a pretty good idea that John McCargo is not going to become a Hampton or the "former" Stroud quality player. So we have four guys right now in rotation. We really don't know right now that we have any "more" than we had last year, when we were 31st in the league in Defense. So as far as Pitt and who they should draft- let's see. They have the same fine interior rotation that they had last year when they were #1 overall. I think it's safe to say that they have the type of base that the better teams have at their D interior- which gives them the luxury of looking at other positions at the top of the draft. But as far as the Bills, we aren't really sure we're any better off going into 2008 for the scheme we play. Right now our second wave of interior D linemen, who get about 40% of the snaps in our system, are even smaller than they were last year. The new starter you've pinned a huge responsibility to make us better against the run missed 30% of his team's snaps in 2006 and 50% in 2007. Anyone objectively considering the rosters of the best teams in the league would recognize that we are razor thin at DT. We were awful against the run in 2007, and if Stroud's health situation simply stabilizes and doesn't get worse (missing 8 games) we are LIKELY this season to be the #32 defense in the NFL against the run. Don't read my position wrong, I like the moves so far. I like the penetrating second wave guy- I like the starting big man with good first steps, but short of adding one more talented player to that rotation, it's simply a full player shy of the way the best teams playing in 4-3s approach the game. And the talk about "if we don't score points" is nearly total nonsense. We have more talent on the O side of the ball than our results last year would suggest. With a D that doesn't cave in on every running play and third down throw, we would give our offense more chances. Last year our offense was under as much pressure from our own defense as any opponent's. Our D allowed no room for error- if our O made any mistake our D on very few occasions had the horses to make up for it. Improving our defense and in the process taking pressure off our offense and increasing their number of opportunities will do far more for this football team than reaching early for a WR who probably won't knock Josh Reed out of a starting job. We can make that type of move in the 3rd round. IMO our Offense looks to benefit most by a scheme adjustment/overhaul and help from the other side of the ball, versus a Detoit Lion-like desperation grab of a WR in the first who may not be in the league in 5 years. We work in the AFC East. We're going to continue to pay for that if we continue to squeeze equity from our lines in favor of guys who catch footballs. We have substantial draft equity right now at WR. Hopefully our front office recognizes this and we aren't embarrassed on April 26th with Fantasy Pick instead of the type of player the better front offices in the league would make if they were running our draft.

One trend that I think is being widely acknowledged since the Giants finish is that the importance of superior talent all across the Dline is becoming a necessity of the game. We have more offenses that dump the ball so quickly that there's not time like "the old days" of the 1990s to get to many QBs before they throw. So the time thay are a changin', and the smart have been ahead of this for the past decade. Teams that have spent draft equity for their good DLines have been overwhelmingly the teams who have ended up the most competitive. Is there an occasional exception- Indy would be the one team doing it on the other side o the ball, but the numbers favor any team without Peyton Manning going hard for DLine. New England* drafted Defensive Tackles in the first round in 2001, 2003 and 2005. They used the #6, #13 and #21 picks for those Defensive Tackles. Those also represent the 3 highest picks the Patriots* have had over that time period.

Pittsburgh is a natural to try to use as support for the nonsense that Buffalo’s current 4 DTs represent the same type of quality and depth the better teams in the league employ since they play a 3-4, but even in that scheme the Steelers have 5 guys on their roster playing their DLine who are over 290. That includes their starting Nose Tackle Casey Hampton who was a 19th overall pick in the draft. Hampton just went to his 4th Pro Bowl in the offseason. We have absolutely no match for the quality the Steelers have in Hampton on our roster. If the Jags thought Stroud was going to the 2009 Pro Bowl, he wouldn’t be a Bill right now. John McCargo has yet to prove anything on the field- he may turn out to play up to his potential but we have no sign that will be the case. Bottom line is, in the 3-4 we expect the Steelers will roster extra Linebackers before they’ll roster extra DTs, and yet even they have 5 guys rostered who would play the interior on a 4-3 team. You can stay stuck on trying to find some exception, but the rule is The Rule. The best teams follow it. I’ve mentioned the Pats* model that employs 6 interior linemen, 3 of whom were taken in the first round and 2 of those early; Also Philly (I think most fans of the game would call them a team worthy of studying for their long stay near the top of the NFC) who have used 3 first round picks this decade at DT, and you seem to downplay the Giants- who rostered 6 interior Defensive Lineman for their Super Bowl run last year. So let’s look at some other teams: How about Baltimore- a leading defense for years- they roster 5 DTs and even then, last year used the #12 pick to take Haloti Ngata. Some might ponder whether we’d have been a better team last year with Ngata versus Lynch, but I don’t need to think about that for a second. Chicago- a DE with their first pick in 2004 and BOTH their #1 and #2 went for DTs in 2005. Super Bowl within 2 seasons. Tennessee has paid due diligence to their DLine in the draft- they not just draft high, they draft a LOT of DTs looking for quality in their rotation. They’ve been among the better teams for a long time because they’ve brought in top pick DLine talent and then supported it big time. In their 2004 draft alone, of 13 picks they took 5 DLinemen! Imagine the meltdown on this board if we ever approached that type of dedication to the most important segment of any NFL roster! I know you’ve declared 1st round DT Ryan Simms a bust- but he’s the same Ryan Simms who (along with 3 more 1st rounders on their DLine) was part of the Tampa DT rotation in 2007 that were second league-wide in total Defense. What I’m talking about are teams that consistently top the wins and defense numbers every year. And these teams have paid MUCH more attention, drafted higher deeper at DT than have the Buffalo Bills. The trend has been passing us by in the NFL for too long. We’re still a bottom feeder thinking we’re going to enter the 2008 season with the razor thin DT rotation we have right now. We DON’T have numbers and we have only hope that there is quality there- yet one premium DT added to our roster would put us in the same league with some of these better teams in the NFL. Finally. After far too long. Or we can ignore the fact that we’ve neglected this and that what we’ve done so far hasn’t really addressed the issue. We’re an injury from being the same bottom dwelling run defense we were last year, in a division where we’ll pay mightily for that sin. And no matter what growing pains we might have to go through on the other side of the ball, if we have the opportunity to add quality to our DLine in round 1, there is probably no single move our Front Office could take to make us a better football team this coming season. I recognize the talent at DL might not be there at 11. But one thing that's sure is that under no circumstances will there be a #11 quality WR on the draft board. That first pick might tell us much about our fortunes in the coming few seasons; have we lost all ability to pay attention to what the teams beating us every year have been doing for years and do we want to adopt it to the best of our ability, or do we remain ignorant to the emphasis the best teams put on their lines?

I have to agree- if you just went through that season as a Giant and at the end of it you decided you're better off without him, who could possibly have a better perspective? At the same time, instead of having a young and below average QB, the Saints have as good a veteran QB as any team playing in the league today. Shockey in NO might be a perfect fit for him to be productive and for the Giants to try and find some of the magic once more that put them on top this past season without that risk factor Shockey always presents. The fans in NO will find some love for Shockey's act, and as long as it doesn't become a competition for air time with Bush it could play out well.

I've been a lifelong proponent of the thinning of the herd versus dumbing down for the witless. Taking the broad observation that most of the recent succesful franchises in the NFL have placed far more of their early draft equity in their DL, and specifically DT selections, than the losers of the league like the Bills who even today have a fraction of that early draft equity in our DL when compared side by side and oversimplifying that to "Drafting first round DL means automatic success" seems a betrayal of your own sensibilities. You can focus on the exception to the rule- the Colts- and fail trying to follow their model. There's an obvious required piece in that foundation that no one else can have. Or you can look at the far larger body of long-term successful NFL franchises who have built their current competitiveness from grabbing the best DLine talent available every draft while the Lions and Bills of the league fight over early WRs and Cornerbacks.

No doubt there are teams that treat this like a business and ignore the media and fan ignorami, and the bad teams who approach the draft like it's a Fantasy League. I hope we're moving away from the latter and towards the former this coming April. So let's draft a WR at 11 even though nearly every credible talent analyst says no WR in this draft is worth a pick before the mid 20s. Glad to see all the chores in the Lion's front office aren't keeping you from some surfing free-time Mr. Millen!

If our draft board for our second pick is topped by a Corner who could play now in a starting role, I'd be ecstatic to see us improve our coverage ability on third downs. I realize it's an egg and chicken argument between pressure and coverage, but our 2007 coverage was far too easy to beat on third and 5+ even with the limited push. It's not like we had QBs dropping back and waiting for coverage to break down; we simply had QBs dropping back and throwing right to open receivers in step at the chains. Scheme is only part to blame- we have a talent issue there too. Not one deserving of that 11 pick, but there's a need. Badolbilz had what I hope turns out to be a prophetic statement about our 08 draft when he said "Round one should be for explosive, dominant athletes, not posession wr's". He's always had the tightest grip on talent entering the league among the body of contributors here, and I'm hoping our team is seeing the same thing. I think he's also the same one who pointed out that there might not be a good enough WR in this draft to push Josh Reed to the bench this year. And if that thought doesn't send shivers dwon the spine of anyone who would like to improve the team THIS season, nothing will. There is still play at the WR level around the league- we should expect to see at least 2 more trades of better to best WRs in the near future. Bottom line is, if we get help at WR this season, it's almost sure to come from somewhere other than with throwing a #11 pick at a guy who would be projected to #45 in a string WR class. Get someone with the 11 pick who will make a difference for us THIS season and beyond, not a project. In our division the Super Bowl should have finally made it clear that we won't be competitive until we have one of the best DLines in the game. We have taken moves in the right direction. Based upon the rosters of the best NFL teams, we're pretty clearly a full "move" away from that goal there though. We have holes to fill. It doesn't mean that the "holes" are all best addresses at the 11 pick. Much to the contrary, good teams work on their roster weaknesses with llower draft picks and save the top pick for the best player. I hope we're feeling like the Bills did that come pick 12 of the upcoming draft.

Guess you missed the Super Bowl. And I'm not talking your FFL Super Bowl- clearly you've been treating that like it in some way resembles the NFL.

That oughta' be a sig line. What's your take on Carlson and how quick he'll help the team that drafts him?

Not to mention that a RB is also a more favorable position in the first round. It's a spot that the player can immediately contribute in a starting role. You're making a commitment to the 1st round dollars and the guaranteed money, and in return you're likely to get the very best years of that player's career even if he simply plays out a 5 year contract and moves on. At WR the whole thing changes- even a real 1st round quality WR is likely to require half his contract to start showing how good he will be- and if he is a good WR the peak of his career is then beyond his first contract. Free Agency has been the far more effective way to take a WR expected to contribute right away. And adding a WR to our roster who won't be expected to contribute right away in any substantial way makes a top 30 pick for one pretty hard to justify.

Stop talking like a smart NFL GM! This discussion is about filling out rookie fantasy rosters- you won't get points from those Defensive Tackles!

C'mon, you're going to blow the cover of the agent who represented Yatil Green ;-)

After even a cursory consideration of the DLine talent rostered by the top teams in the NFL today, only an idiot would believe that our DLine is fine.