BarleyNY
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Posts posted by BarleyNY
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Actually it's only $1M in dead money, which would be applied next season if he's cut anytime before next season or if the Bills decline to pay his roster bonus in the offseason. If that bonus is due before he can earn his offseason w/o bonus of $50k then I expect that's the route they'll go. If not, then I expect him to be cut before he can earn it. The overall cap savings for him being let go over the offseason would be $3.9M. I expect that the Bill will need that cap space more than him. I don't see them cutting him this season, but he makes a little less than $200k a game. They'd save that in addition.$2.8 dead cap hit. Maybe this off-season.
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Apparently you didn't see the replay of him jumping in front of the ref (before the inadvertent whistle) through your rose colored glasses.
Rex was on the white line literally between the ref and Brady who had the ball. My wife's comment was "He's pulling a Tomlin!" I love her.
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if EJ threw those balls he'd be getting roasted for his inaccuracy, etc.
JFC, give the EJ crap a rest. Taylor's getting roasted for it right now - and deservedly so.
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The loss had nothing to do with coaching. Great game plan. Good discipline. Just didn't make plays on offense.
I agree that the game plan was excellent. It wasn't executed as well as it should have been, particularly by Taylor. McKelvin's fumbles were back breakers as well. If they both execute, then the Bills likely would have won. But I do blame the coaches for several things including a lack of discipline at times. 10 men on the field, confusion at the end of the game, sending McKelvin out to continue to return kicks after two turnovers, kicking on 4th and 2 at midfield late in the game, etc. While I certainly don't pin this loss on the coaches, there are definitely places where they can improve.
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Tyrod underthrew about 5 deep passes. 2 or more TD's not scored from that.
BS, allowing only 20 points in Foxboro is a hell of a game defensively. We had plenty of chances offensively and we didn't execute.
I'm not sure how anyone pins this on Roman's play calling. He called a very good game IMO. Certainly good enough to win this one. This game was on McKelvin's turnovers, Taylor's inability to throw well on several deep passes - including two would-be TDs had he not floated those balls - and the coaches who are ultimately to blame for the disarray the various squads were in at critical times.
HTF do the coaches let McKelvin continue to return kicks after two turnovers? After the second one, every mistake he made was on the coaches who sent him back out there. Ridiculous.
I'll give the coaches credit for making the best out of Taylor, but a quality QB wins this game and that's not on them. To win against the best teams you have to have a QB who can contribute a lot more than Taylor can now. We can debate about where his development can eventually lead, but he sure is not where we need him to be right now. If I'm Whaley I'm looking to improve the position in the offseason and let Taylor compete with whomever I can bring in.
Maybe it'll come with time together and in the system, but the preparation of the two teams was very far apart last night. The Bills did not kill themselves with penalties, but they repeatedly looked disorganized. That's on the coaches. The Patriots never lost their composure and always seemed to know exactly what to do. Hell, Brady even knew the rule that stated the ball would be placed at the spot of the catch on the inadvertent whistle play. He started walking up the field mid explanation. That disparity was frustrating to watch.
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On @buffalobills signing Coples, '16 Opt was picked up and has abt $7.75 mil that would carryover in inj gtees, makes claiming him riskier.
No one is going to claim him with that option looming. He'll clear waivers, then see what the market bears. Wouldn't blame the Bills if they kicked the tires.
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SPOILER
The Cheerleader died. Sorry.
I only watched the first season, but I saw a blurb about this. Why do I think she is going to un-die at some point? I hate when shows/movies/books do that.
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A tough 4 game stretch for the Stillers, but they are coming off a bye at a good time and they end with two easy games against a crippled Baltimore team and a Cleveland team that'll be looking to stay healthy for a relaxing offseason.Steelers are feeling uneasy. Lost the head to head with KC, and Pitt has a brutal 4 game stretch coming up.
KC is beatable but it will be tough at Arrowhead.
...buuuuut Pats* first
If they can split the next 4 they are looking at 10-6 and a wildcard spot.
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If they're going to have comp picks - and would seem they are - then simplify things and make them tradeable just like any other picks. It's probably better for the players overall. The main problem I've had with comp picks is that they typically give extra low round picks to teams that already draft well, even if they lost some talent to get the extra pick(s). The net result is often to add extra developmental players to a team without much room for them. Making comp picks tradeable might help alleviate this in some small, marginal way. I'd rather that they didn't exist at all, but I don't have any problem making them tradeable if they do.
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Any word on how the colorblind folk are doing on this one?
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No statistical measurement or index has any credibility when its variables are known only by the person who created it.
Also, if someone wants to start looking into its validity, calculate the correlation between QBR for a QB and wins. ESPN stated it's a measure of the totality of a QBs performance so by extension high QBRs should equate to wins since the implication is the QB matters more than any given player as evidenced by he being the only player for which such a measure exists.
Those are all fair points. I like what they're trying to do, but their execution is terrible.
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You can't be serious? They aren't flirting with danger in the slightest.
Not in this case, but they absolutely are in other ways. The rule changes and consequent number of defensive PI and holding penalties are definitely hurting the game. Then there's the talk of the league looking to add more teams, add more regular season games and allow more teams to make the playoffs. Individually those are bad ideas, but collectively they would would really damage the product even if they'd add revenue in the short term.
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It's a matter of time before the whole house of cards comes tumbling down. Greed will eventually kill the golden goose.
Growing a business isn't greedy, but over growing it to its detriment is. The NFL hasn't gotten to that point yet, but lately I think it's been flirting with going too far.I don't consider growing your business greed. It's simply understanding and expanding the market.
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80% of Snaps: $1M bonus
He lost 2 weeks of snaps (12,5^) of games but because EJ took a lot more snaps per game due to style of play/game TT has last more than 12% of snaps.
If he loses more snaps to injuries he could drop under 80% of snaps.
I was talking about the agent for Cousins, not TT.
That's more than fair. I was trying trying to hedge (not to you) but to those that will be mad if the Bills offer $15M, mad if he then costs $20M, and mad if we lose guys. We can't have everything but there will be people here that will want that. You have taken a stance and it's totally reasonable.
As is yours. Just different appetites for risk in this case. Here's hoping your path is the smart one.
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So sorry for your loss, Doug. Condolences to the whole Flutie family.
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...and it's fine to feel that way as long as we understand what waiting means. If you wait, you are probably talking about doing so at the expense of guys like Woods, Glenn, Bradham, possibly Gilmore. That extra $7M a year and $20M-$25M of guaranteed more that it will cost you is at the direct loss to certain guys. You have to weigh everything and cant simply say "it's been 7 games" and make that decision in a vacuum. If he starts the rest of the year at this level, the Bills will be trying desperately to extend him.
Extending him early will cost us too - and sooner. Plus we might not even see a good return on that if he flames out/fails to live up to his deal. No, I'll wait and pay him fair market if he hits. That's fine. Our choices are:
- Wait and possibly pay more, which will be market value
- Pay him above his market early in hopes that we will get a deal and save some money, but also take the chance we might be overpaying him substantially
I really do see your point, but I haven't seen enough and there is time. I wait and see what Taylor does. And here's the reason: What he hasn't proven he can do is the toughest part of being a quarterback. I really hope he makes it, but I'm skeptical.
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Taylor is 5-2 as a starter, with losses only to New England and Cincinnati. He has won on the road and he has won when most of his offensive weapons have been hurt. He has particular strengths including leadership that are hard to find. Just as important, there is no aspect to his game which is below average, except his height, and tell than to Russell Wilson. He has been in the league long enough to know what's what. He reads defenses well the majority of the time and he's continuing to improve at that. He has a great arm and can make all the throws, including deep outs that don't hang in the air. And he runs extremely well. The Bills offense this year was not built to take full advantage of Taylor's mobility but it will be next year. Bottom line, huge upside.
I realize the Bills were burned by falling in love too quickly with Fitz. There is no rush to re-do Taylor's contract. But if the Bills finish strong (could still miss the playoffs due to EJ's blown games) I think they'll re-sign him in the spring.
As yourself if you've enjoyed waiting for Jim Kelly's successor to appear. Taylor isn't Kelly but he's the best we've had since Kelly.
I disagree with a lot of this. Start with your leadership comment. Why is he considered a great leader right now? I'm not saying that he is or that he isn't, just that there's precious little evidence either way right now. As for aspects of his game that are below average I'd say that his issues going through his progressions and reading defenses is a place where he is below average right now. Plus, as you noted, his height is below the generally accepted minimum (6'1" vs. 6'2").
Big arm? Yup. Can make all of the throws? Yup. Mobile? Yup again. But I want to address your comment that the Bills current offense is not built to take full advantage of TT's mobility. I couldn't disagree more. It is relied on too much, if anything. This isn't JT Barrett at Ohio State. TT is listed at 6'1", 215#. If he was better at his progressions - like he needs to be - they'd run him less because of how dangerous it is from a potential injury perspective. At that size it will be difficult for him to last if he continues to take hits. Notably, he has been doing a better job of sliding and otherwise avoiding hits since he's been back from injury.
I don't mean to be overly critical of him, but he has important aspects of his game that he needs to improve upon. The Bills need to see at least some improvement in some of those areas before they commit big money to him.
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Still not liking the idea of paying him because it would cost X amount to replace him. He needs to prove his worth imo.
To reiterate some comments posted and then some
- He needs to show he can stay healthy
- He needs to show he can play well for more than 1 season
- He needs to show he can win it in the air as well as on the ground
Agree with this totally. He's played 7 games, people.
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IF (big IF) he plays at the same level the rest of this year the Bills will almost certainly engage in extension talks this offseason. They will try to get him for roughly $15M a year with minimal guarantees. His side will shoot for a higher guaranteed amount and they will settle on something like 4 years $68M with $30M guaranteed.
That's just the way that it works with QBs. You either have foresight and take a chance or you play it conservatively and overpay.
That's true. But I don't take that chance yet. He's got 7 games under his belt and even if he finishes the season healthy that's only 14 total, plus playoffs potentially. And that's really the only place he could really change my mind by this offseason - by lighting it up in the playoffs. Then I'd be on board.
But there is also his side to consider. I definitely think he'd jump at a mid-tier (or below) contract this offseason, but you never know. Maybe he's a gambler and thinks he can make the really big bucks. Or say he does take a mid-tier deal and then lights it up for another year or two. Why wouldn't he ask for a new deal early if he thinks he has earned it?
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Great post John and right on. You either sign these guys before you are 100% sure that they are the guy (maybe 80%) and pay them $17M a year or you wait until you are 100% and pay them $22M with a bunch of guarantees. That is what the Bills will be facing with Tyrod soon. It is a tricky situation.
I agree that it's tricky with QBs in particular, but there is no way that I jump the gun with Taylor. I see what he does the rest of this year and probably next. He's certainly does not have a large body of work, nor has he proven enough on the field to justify even a second tier deal. I hope he does earn that here, but he still has a lot to do before he does.
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But emotion and momentum are vital parts of team sports. I do see some validity in the modelling but at the same time the NFL is too much of an any given Sunday league to put too much store in it.
Most of the gripes about modeling like 538's are from people who expect some nerd to be able to plug in a bunch of numbers and tell the future. If that doesn't happen they decry their work as bogus and completely write it off. It's just odds and expectations and only gets as specific as the model and available information allow. Plus modeling things with a lot of inherent variance - like football - is only ever going to be so accurate. It's a nice tool, not a be-all-end-all.
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Spotrac predicting 3 years 34 mill for Cousins with just over 13k gtd.http://www.spotrac.com/research/nfl/contract-forecast-kirk-cousins-558/
You know what's worse than paying Cousins that contract? Losing him. It'd be pretty fair in that the team could cut ties quickly and easily if they had to, but Cousins would still get paid for what he's accomplished. If he blossoms then he wouldn't have to wait long to get a new deal at an increased rate. If not, then there's no long term commitment and no lasting cap damage to the team.
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I don't agree that KC are much better than Oakland. I think they are extremely closely matched and I think a split in those games is the most likely outcome.
That's certainly possible, even according to 538's model. But that model has KC (ELO of 1588) as a significantly better team than Oakland (1428) and thus gives KC a much better chance of finishing with the better record since they play twice and have similar schedules. Incidentally Buffalo's ELO is 1530, which is a lot better than Oakland but not quite as good as KC. If the Bills win they will improve their rating and odds. If they lose, it'll go the other direction. In that way I really like models like this because they force teams to earn respect. Emotion is minimized even if there is a lot of variance.
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Well, we are 5-3 in the conference, and they are 3-2.
They have tougher games with two to the Raiders, and the Bills. The Browns could get back on track with McKown returning, and you never know with the Chargers twice as Rivers is a solid QB.
You can see how this model is tracking if you look at not only KC and Buffalo, but also Oakland:
KC: 4-5, 56% chance to make playoffs
Buffalo: 5-4, 35%
Oakland: 4-5, 7%
The model is simply saying that the Bills have a tougher schedule (which they obviously do) and that currently KC is a much better team than Oakland, whom they still have to play twice. Things can change - injuries, development of players, hot streaks, etc. - but it's difficult to argue with those expectations today.
I hate to admit it, but Taylor sucks
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I agree on all counts. Expect other teams to try to keep him in the pocket when they know he has to throw. Taylor is going to have to improve that aspect of his game.