BarleyNY
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Posts posted by BarleyNY
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i am holding out hope for a RT, at least.
Schwartz from Cleveland is a free agent and is looking to bolt from what I hear. He'd be decent and not break the bank. He also would be a better fit in a run heavy offense like the Bills. I'm even more worried about Glenn and Incognito hitting free agency and leaving.
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with a better supporting cast
Sadly, I don't think that's a lock.
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Fans need to separate their emotions from it a little bit. No team is going to be successful changing coaches every few years. Like it or not, the best option is to stay the course with Rex.
Yup. He's been here for 14 games. Fans can afford to have knee-jerk reactions, owners can't.
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Shut him down. No need to risk something worse for meaningless games.
Agreed. No reason to get him injured for next season.
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I was critical of the McCoy trade and new deal combo. It seemed a lot to give up for a player who was exceptional in another system, but was unproven in the Bills' system. But he has worked out well and that has changed my mind. We didn't get a bargain, but we are getting fair value with him. Here is the breakdown. He's:
- the 4th highest paid RB in the NFL
- 8th ranked RB in combined rushing and receiving
- 8th in rushing
- 6th in rushing yards/game
That's not out of whack. The Bills have problems, but he isn't one of them.
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Great points correcting a false narrative about the Bills cap problems. Does anybody really think they haven't thought ahead and didn't expect to have issues to deal with, as do other teams.
So no front office ever makes mistakes? 16 straight years of no playoffs and you're assumption to an apparent problem is to assume the FO has everything covered? interesting way to go. I'll stick with what I see because the best way for an NFL team to dig themselves out of a tight cap situation is to draft well and I have little confidence in that.
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the Bills have serious Cap issues going forward. already projected 2016 at negative $2.5 mil without Glenn, Incognito & Gilmore signed to long term deals.
No, they don't
They've got cap issues, that's for sure. Whether or not they're "serious" depends on your definition. The light might not be blinking red, but it's bright yellow. They've got some real talent they are in very real danger of losing due to their cap situation - Glenn, Incognito, Rambo, etc. It's a manageable situation, but they've got to make real choices now. No more signing everyone they can and the strategy of overpaying for players like Clay is likely off the table.
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As a matter of fact, we're not. Stats don't lie. They are the only way to measure actual performance and compare it to other QB's. I know you don't like him, but like it or not he is in the top 10 in every single measurable QB statistic. If you think he blows, then prove it by comparing him with the other QB's in the league. Otherwise, your opinion means nothing.
Every single measurable statistic? Nope.
Passing yards - 25th
Completions % - 16th
TDs - 17th
Attempts - 28th
Yards/game - 29th
You don't help his cause - or your own credibility - when you post ridiculous stuff like that.
FWIW, I thought Taylor played admirably today. He showed a lot of heart. But he had issues today (and in some other games) with too many pass plays that wound up with him scrambling as well as some unnecessarily poor throws.
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Schwartz on the Browns appears to want out. He's a solid RT that wouldn't be that expensive.
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He took terrible angles and missed many opportunities today. He is not a sideline to sideline player.
He was awful (again). Sometimes you can't tell what a player's responsibility is on a play, but sometimes it's obvious. He repeatedly was out of position due to over-pursuing or filling the wrong gap. Find a legit MLB and let him compete for a role on the outside.
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Whoa. How is that not an ejection?
No idea. Certainly could be a suspension.
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IF that's true, then I fear that Whaley is a goner.
That would suck, since I doubt they'll be able to pry Eric DeCosta out of Baltimore.
Best we could hope for is to get a Will McClay or Chris Ballard (Dallas and KC, respectively)
Yeah, I totally agree with the part about Whaley being a goner if the report is true. I'm not sure how much of a bad thing it'd be though. I've found his work to be very uneven and average at best overall. I don't know enough about potential GMs to give an opinion on them yet, but being able to work well with Rex and find the kinds of players needed by the current schemes is paramount.
The Roman and Watkins discussions don't bode well for Whaley. He's on the defensive about his moves. Watkins shouldn't be held to the standard of what the Bills gave up for him. Once a guy is on the team that shouldn't matter. But the GM absolutely should have to answer for it. His successes have come at very big costs. Wakins is a fine player, but at the cost of an elite one. Clay is a very good all-around TE, but he's got a top 5 TE deal. Shady is the biggest success as he is an elite back. The combination of his sizable new contract and trading Kiko equates to a very fair amount of compensation. The other big issue is Taylor, who is certainly a success - but that was all Rex. Whaley's contributions at QB look very unfavorable compared to what Rex did (whether or not Taylor is a long term answer).Strange - the showdown is over how the OFFENSE has played? o_O
I mean, I want to see Sammy featured too, but chalk some some of that up to a first year QB. But the D, that's been the letdown...
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Two Onio State football national championships. That's the whole list.
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The OL and WR situations scare me far worse than anything on defense. If Glenn and Cogs walk that OL is a trainwreck. Watkins needs a threat opposite him to be effective so finding one is a huge priority. A lesser need, but a need nonetheless, is a quality slot WR. We really don't have a threat there.let's see.
are we gonna pay Cordy Glenn massive money? Seriously, is he gonna get a contract? It should be up as he was a 2nd round pick in 2012. Do we think he's worth 7/8m a year on a 5/6 year deal. I'd guess he'll command 30m guaranteed at least.
OK, so let's say we don't pay:
needs:
LT, LG (Richie isn't signed), RT, TE depth, WR (need a bigger target), DE (as Mario is gonna be let go), NT (Kyle gonna be let go and Marcel is moving to DE), LB depth, and you can always use more CB. Perhaps a K too!
Yep, really simple.
I'll wait to see what moves are made pre-free agency before I fully address the defense. Obviously the LB corps need some help, DBs could use some depth (and more if McKelvin is let go) and the DL will need to adequately replace anyone traded or released.
Yeah, and probably a kicker.
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Overall, the Jets. Better DL (though both are quite good), better OL (by a wide margin), better corners. Bills are much better at TE and marginally better at RB. WR corps goes to,Jets. At QB the Jets have Fitz, who is a vet who limited physically but understands the game. He's the guy that gets brought in to bridge the gap while a long term starter is found and brought up to speed. I have no idea if Petty is that guy or not, but Geno is horrible so it's Petty or the search continues. The Bills have Taylor, EJ and Johnson - so effectively they have Taylor. He's shown he can be effective in a system that limits his role as a passer, but he's not a complete QB (yet?) and hasn't fared nearly as well when asked to do more. So the Jets have a journeyman who they they can't win it all with and an unknown commodity at developmental QB (which usually don't work out). The Bills have a QB who currently isn't good enough to win it all with, but still has a chance to develop into a better QB who can (although that's rare). I give the QB edge to the Bills, but not by any wide margin as neither likely has their franchise QB.
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Watching an undefeated Panthers team beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl has a lot of appeal from a rubbing-it-in-their-face way.
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And foolish to open his mouth on the topic. Nothing to be gained, much to potentially lose. No reason to burn any bridges. Even one's you have yet to cross. (Except the bridge to Crossmanville, that should be isolated.)
Agreed. Right or wrong, it's incredibly stupid for a head coach to say something like that to the media.
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I don't think there's any way Williams agrees to renegotiate a 5 year deal at $8M-$10M per year. His current deal is set to pay him $14.5M ($19.9M cap hit) in 2016 and $14.9M ($16.5M cap hit) in 2017. That's a hell of a pay cut for him. I'm sure he'd rather test the market. There's a big gap in his value in the Bills' scheme versus in a scheme where he's pass rushing more. That disparity might be what leads to him and the Bills parting ways.Mario Williams has been a great addition. 42 sacks in 60 games so far. 95 career sacks and only 30 years old. Before we cut anyone lets consider availability and age.
It's easy to scapegoat one of the highest paid defenders on the wrong side of their prime, but Mario has lots of tread left on his tires.
We are better off if both Kyle & Mario Williams are Buffalo Bills in 2016 & beyond.
Consider this...there's a long list of guys who produced well over 50 sacks past the age of 30. Jason Taylor comes to mind. The guy was 6'6'' 255, 40 lbs lighter than Mario, but still managed 59 sacks (age 31 to age 37) his final 7 seasons.
I see Mario following in the Julius Peppers mold another guy of similar build. Both are born in January and are 5 years apart. Since the season Peppers turned 31, 2011, Peppers has posted 43.5 sacks the past 5 seasons.
In case people are wondering any guy we might draft would be lucky to get 40 to 50 career sacks.
The talk on here of, many of whom are advocating "cutting" Mario now while still under contract is short-sighted. When looking at the facts and hard data, the guy will likely produce another 25 sacks by the most conservative of estimates over the remainder of his career. On the high end Mario will likely get 50 sacks.
Now is there a need to restructure Mario? Of course. Now is the time to lock him up through age 35, or the 2019 season. Amortizing the cost of retaining versus the uncertainty of replacement one could easily ascertain Williams' value at $8,000,000 to $10,000,000 average per season over the next 5 seasons. This is Jerry Hughes level money. With a cap hit of $7,000,000 by cutting Mario in 2016, it makes sense to either trade him, which likely won't happen due to the remaining contract, or to simply renegotiate a long term contract that represents the value he will produce over the next 5 seasons. This is similar to what we did with LeSean McCoy's contract.
Contract details:
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Arizona
Yeah. I'd love to see Carson Palmer win it all. He got jobbed (as did the whole Bengals team) when von Oelhoffen kneecapped him in the playoffs during his best previous shot at winning it all. In fact, I think I'd be great to see him go up against the Bengals in the Super Bowl. That's obviously very unlikely with Dalton injured, but I'd still like Palmer and Arizona to make it.
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I don't agree with that assessment.
He was regularly doubled in the KC game, and had no trouble beating both guys to the ball. His TD catches were perfect examples of simply beating 2 guys...no lateness involved.
I liken the difference in Sammy and OBJ's numbers to hockey--in general, the team that gets more pucks to the net is going to score more often, since shooting percentage doesn't vary much from team-to-team (or player-to-player for that matter). The numbers bare it out, really: when Sammy gets the targets, he produces.
The simplest way to account for the difference is how much more the Giants throw the ball than the Bills (which is significant), and how much higher a percentage of those throws go to OBJ vs. Watkins.
Another poster mentioned the doubles in the KC game in another thread so I rewatched it. It's actually a big part of how my opinion formed. On all but one of Watkins' big first half plays the safety was late. Again, Watkins' speed was a big part of why. On the other play the safety was shielded by the CB and couldn't get around him. In the second half KC adjusted by shifting the safety over Watkins and playing the CB tight. That was when Watkins was done for the night.
As for extrapolating Watkins's numbers, it might be simple and make you feel good about him but it isn't realistic. A lot would change if his targets doubled. Wear and tear over a game and the season are much different - and he's had issues at the current level. Defensive game planning would key on him more too, which is huge. But, as I said previously, I do think the Bills should get him more involved and target him more to see what he can do. Maybe he continues to improve; he's only in his second year. But maybe he doesn't so until he proves he can carry more of the offensive load with similar averages, he's not nearly in the same class as WRs like Beckham.
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Seems like a lot of posters are sold on the assumption that the only things holding Watkins back are out of his control. QB play, play calling, coaching, targets, etc. I'm not sold. The picture of who he is is coming into focus and it's very good, but not as great as some here are espousing. He is excellent when against one on one coverage as few CBs can handle him alone. He has great body control and speed. But he does not have the elite ability to beat double coverage if he's the focus of it. I've seen him beat double coverage when the safety is late - and that's a nod to his speed - but if the safety is there in time, Watkins isn't making a play. That is my concern with him getting more targets. More targets equals more attention from defenses and that takes him out of the game with double coverages. What I'd like to see the Bills do is find another WR who is a deep threat and also requires double coverage.* Watkins' stats would explode. Then they need to find a shifty slot receiver to open the middle of the field for Clay, too. Those two additions along with the OL are my offensive priorities if I'm Whaley.
*I know Harvin was supposed to be that guy this season. The fact that Whaley and Rex took such a big risk with a problem player like him points to the importance they place on having another deep threat.
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Never mind. I figured it out. It was under MY profile, not his.
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Just wondering how one might put a poster on "ignore". Can someone tell me where to find that feature?
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Mario only has two years left on his deal. Pushing cap space from his salary and roster bonus from 2016 into 2017 hardly makes sense as his hit in 2017 would be gigantic. He could be extended so that could be spread out, but creating some substantial space in that way will make it very tough to cut ties anytime soon. That nixes that option. Or he could be asked to take a cut in pay, but I think he'd rather move on than do that. Realistic options are very limited and a restructure isn't one of them. Traded before his roster bonus is due, released by not paying that bonus or kept at his current contract are about all there is to chose from. I see what the trade market bears and go from there (and that assumes that his contract doesn't have a no trade clause).Sign them to a new deal that gives us more available cap room or find a way to move the $ around to do the same. Either way it is because the production is not worth the current investment. Maybe they would choose to stay with the team or maybe they would want a change of venue to see if anyone else would overpay them.
Shining a light on Shady
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
39.3% of his contract is guaranteed, so he's locked in through next season with those guarantees. His guarantee percentage is a little less than the two players above him and the two below him.
http://overthecap.com/position/running-back