BarleyNY
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Posts posted by BarleyNY
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No. You have to extend him as part of - not prior to - the restructure. In general restructures just shift some of a player's current year cap charges to future years. The typical way to do this is to convert a portion of the player's salary and/or roster and workout bonuses to a signing bonus. The player is happy because he gets his money a little earlier than he would have. The team is happy because they delay their cap hit.You extend him first.
Clay is a good example. He has a $10M roster bonus due in the offseason. That will all count toward the 2016 cap if left in place. But it won't be. It was just done that way to keep Miami from matching his deal. They will restructure it to a roster bonus, which is amortized over the rest of the contract (up to 5 years or the end of the CBA). He has 4 years after this one on his deal so the cap hits will be $2.5M in each year from 2016-2019 instead of $10M in 2016. That clears $7.5M in 2016 and adds $2.5M to seasons 2017-2019.
To free up any worthwhile amount of cap space for any significant amount of time from Mario's contract he'd have to have some years added. How long he is expected to be a highly productive is of paramount importance because if he is released, retires, or is traded any unaccounted for signing bonus dollars get accelerated into the current year (or the following year if after June 15th).
This offseason Mario and the Bills could, for example, agree to a 2 year extension (through 2019) and convert his whole $2.5M roster bonus and $9.5M of his salary ($12M total) to a signing bonus. That would spread out the $12M cap hit in 2016 to four $3M cap hits in each season from 2016-2019. His 2016 cap hit would be reduced by $9M, but his cap hit in 2017 would increase by $3M and hed also have additional $3M cap hits in 2018 and 2019.
In short, there's no free lunch but you can defer the cap hit. An argument for deferring cap hits is that the cap almost always rises so taking a hit in future years will take up a proportionately lower percentage of the overall space. The big arguments against it are that sometimes players will lack motivation after they get one big payday and then a relatively small salary especially if the restructure makes it difficult for the team to cut or trade them. That's the second argument against it - it can really create issues if a player becomes a big off the field problem, gets suspended or retires unexpectedly due to injury. New Orleans is going through this now.
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That ought to slow down the Hughes criticism
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The were making adjustments during the game. Their defense definitely has a better feel for the plays our offense is running than our defense has for their offensive plays.Miami didn't need to make any. They gashed us for 84 yards both before and after the half.
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Miami not taking a time out with 15 sec left in the half might be the difference in this game.
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To be honest, that hold is what sprung the play, after watching the replay.
True
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Brutal penalty for Miami.
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Tyrod does that consistently.
Yeah. Not all the time, but way too much.
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Maybe a catch. Bothers me that TT locked onto Watkins the whole play tho.
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I probably should have been more specific in the OP - I was really inquiring on if we should sign him to an extension early (a la Aaron Williams, Nickell Robey) -- not whether he should be re-signed in general. But still some of the same points resonate either way.
I assumed that's what we were talking about. Extending players you want to retain a year before their contract runs out is definitely the way to go whenever reasonable. If the Bills can get Woods at a reasonable price this offseason then I do it. If he thinks he can get starter money somewhere then I kick that can down the road.
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Shady really looking not hurt there
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It appears so.And shady hurt?
Edited to add: ....or maybe not.
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Nice run by TT - especially since he didn't take a hit.
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He was dominant his rookie season. Wasn't good enough.
No he wasn't. He was very good, a top 25 WR in the NFL and promising, but he definitely was not dominant. I hope he becomes a dominant WR for the Bills, but he's not nearly there yet.
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I worry that if he does get healthy and start dominating, once his contract is up he'll want to get the he'll away from the fan base that **** all over him for getting hurt.
That's funny because what I worry about is him never managing to stay healthy long enough to ever be dominant. But I bet if he does he won't have any issues with the fans.
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I think Glenn will over value himself. Those who call him better than average. Are close to being wrong. he is serviceable, and will want more than the Bills will pay. Another smart LT pick can cover his loss.
IMO
How he values himself matters little. How other teams value him matters a great deal. Let's face it, the reality of the situation is that a team without an average LT would be happy to have him and they'll pay him very well. The other part of that reality is finding a replacement LT should the Bills lose him. Capable or better LTs are usually first round or sometimes early/mid second round picks. Rarely are they found outside of that and even when they are those players don't generally start right away. If the Bills lose Glenn and can't replace him with another capable LT (and I don't see how they do that outside of early in the draft) we are going to see some real problems.
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Gilmore (a cornerstone of the D)
Glenn (as a mid tier OT contract - if his agent thinks he's getting elite LT money elsewhere let him go, he isn't in that category)
Woods (still only 22, solid contributor, durable, has shown strong WR ability despite questionable QBs throwing to him)
Bradham (can be replaced in draft)
Don't forget Incognito. He is a FA after the season and needs to be a priority assuming a reasonable contract.
Extending Gilmore would make a lot of sense and free up some cap space for next season.
Glenn shouldn't break the bank and would be nice to retain, but I expect him to hit free agency. Once that happens he's likely gone as some LT needy team will overpay. The Bills probably missed their opportunity with him.
Woods would be nice to extend as well. He's not a top talent but he keeps his mouth shut, works hard and (typically) can be counted on to give maximum effort and know his assignment. He's a WR you can start if you need to, but is best as a rotational guy. Teams need guys like him on the roster. If he's willing to take a contract commensurate with that, then sign him to it.
Bradham is almost certainly gone. He hasn't excelled in Ryan's scheme and cap space will be tight. Some team will give him a chance and a decent payday based on last year's performance.
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Absolutely. Harvin is gone and I don't think the team can count on Watkins being healthy. Even if he is they still need another quality starter.WR as a 2016 draft need?
The Bills should have known better and any other team that gives him guaranteed money deserves what they get. If I'm a GM the only way I sign him is to a vet minimum contract with high incentive bonuses for being on the field and performing.Percy Harvin's bizarre 1st season w #Bills is over & don't expect him to play for them again ... or anyone else. http://bit.ly/1NzEnAt
Well said.Well yea he is overcompensated for sure.
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WTF? Not any good? He was runner up DROY.but Kiko wasn't very good. You can still have your man crush on him with Philly. I'd rather have McCoy.
A risk because of injury concerns? Granted. But "not any good"? Ridiculous.
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I'm really not one to call names, but whenever I hear or see "Sammy Watkins" my brain now translates that to "Fragile Sammy Watkins". He'd be a great asset to the team if he could stay healthy (obviously), but the number of injuries he's had and the manner in which they've occurred is not promising. If I'm the Bills I'm still looking to address the WR position in the offseason as Harvin won't be here and Watkins can't be counted on to be on the field. I like Woods and all, but if he's my #1 then I know I have problems.agreed. Sammy is way too injury-prone. Can find good value in Rd. 2. Take a big/fast guy.
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A couple injury filled games have negatively biased the data the models use. If all goes well that should begin to reverse after this week.
Any reasonably sophisticated model would take things like that into consideration. But don't forget that those models give odds and report the most likely scenario. Better (and worse) scenarios can have decent chances too.
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I could be wrong but I think he said FiveThirtyEight was also an ESPN product.
fivethirtyeight is well know for political predictions (it is unbiased and usually the most accurate) and does a lot with economics, science, etc. They've also been into modeling predictive models for different sports so I'd wager ESPN partnered with them to get their modeling expertise on the sports stuff.
The Freakenomics guys do similar modeling and actually showed that Sumo wrestling was fixed in certain cases. Apparently they did the same with horse racing, but instead of making the data and conclusions public they decided it'd be better to continue to bet on the races. Which was probably a really good way to go since a bunch of people in the Sumo community wound up murdered by the Yakuza after that scandal broke.
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never went there but thanks for verifying
let go or quit??
ESPN is hemorrhaging money so you'll notice a lot of cost cutting measures there.
Bills v fins second half game thread
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Nice win today! I was impressed by them slamming the door on the Fish. They absolutely had to have this one and they got it.