BarleyNY

That's just economics. Differencemakers will always get the discretionary dollars. The only ways to spread out money is to raise minimum salaries/benefits and/or cap the top salaries. Vets who make more than incoming players generally get squeezed out, but the NFL does discount the cap hits from vet minimum salaries to help this situation. Free agency definitely helps the market's process, but it'd be happening anyway. It is difficult to argue the impact of the elimination of free agency unless you know the system that would replace it. If you simply say that players can't change teams without a trade (or release) but teams are still bound by minimum spending then you might actually see more money flow to the highest performers and less to midlevel players. I'd argue that free agency actually causes money to be spread out to a greater degree simply because some moderate talents get much bigger deals than the market would indicate they should. We've seen a lot of that this week.

Free agency sure helps teams fill in holes on their rosters, so yes, it definitely helps balance the league. But it is more of a way of making sure all teams can at least be decent by getting competent players at positions of need rather than a path for teams to reach greatness by acquiring differencemakers. The former happens every year with virtually every team while the latter happens very, very rarely.

Oh, good. A thread about the Bills' cap situation.

Nice work. Those deals are nicely thought out and they'll be about what it'll probably take to get them done. I am still hoping for a bit of a discount though. (Not to nitpick, but the dead money in the final years of those two deals looks off. Should be 6.5 and 7. Guessing it was a spreadsheet error.)

Yeah, he is.

Wow. Huge brain fart on my part. Previous post is deleted.

Yeah, Bills gave him an original round tender.

Lol. Gee, I wonder what's happening here?

Agree on Houston rolling the dice large - and I wonder if they weren't driving up his price bidding against themselves. It's probably bad for the Bills, but if he flames out it lends credence to the "stupid contract, outlier" argument.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/stephon-gilmore/market-value/ I didn't see this posted. Apologies if it was. It's Spotrac's estimation of Gilmore's value, which they calculate to be about $13.5M per season with a total contract of 6 years, $81.4M. Their calculations were done prior to the recent signings and I don't know what, if any, effect they'd have. But, holy crap, that ballpark might be rough. They Bills really need to lock him up now (at a bit of a discount) if they want to keep him.

Holy crap! No wonder he wanted to hit free agency. Good God, that's a ridiculous contract for Osweiler.

Been beating that same drum myself. Due to the (over)spending on some players last offseason there is only so much that can be done. They got Incognito at a good rate so no complaints there. They pretty much had to tag Glenn so, again, no problem with that. But those two are just treading water and it'll be almost impossible to replace all of the talent lost this offseason (regardless of the misuse of that talent or that talent's lack of effort). The Bills are going to have to rely on drafting very, very well to improve.

Damn, Spotrac is quick.

It was an incomplete tweet. Wilson fixed it.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/ About $7.2M in space. After Incognito's contract becomes official he should count about $3.1M against the cap in 2016. That will leave about $4.6M in space. Calculated as: $7.2M-$3.1M+$500k(Rule of 51 rolloff contract)=$4.6M Expect draft picks to cost about $2M net after Rule of 51 roll offs. Edited to add: Spotrac has contract details. Bills have $4.5M in cap room after RI's contract.

I thought it'd cost the Bills more early too. I expected closer to $11M in payouts over the first two years. He's sure worth that. RI gave a nice discount to the Bills.

That's more like it. Basically a two year deal for $9.125M total (when $500k roster bonus is included) That's a great deal for the Bills. Whaley did well here. $3.125M cap hit this year.

$11.5M??? I thought it was $15.75M. Perhaps Wilson did not get the full breakdown as the signing bonus is missing. Guaranteed money can be a combo of signing bonus and salary.

The Bills were 8-8 last season, the Phins were 6-10 and the difference was that the Bills beat them twice. In the two games this season I like the Bills' chances, but they aren't locks by any stretch. Coming off that 8-8 season, I am concerned with every team the Bills play.

Good for the Bills! This was an important - critical - re-signing. I do think the Bills may have gotten a modest discount, but we won't know until we see the structure. The big factor is guaranteed money, of course. That's the other aspect of a "discount" versus other teams' offers. We're the Bills more comfortable guaranteeing more money than other teams due to the current relationship? I don't know, but I'm happy it worked out as it did. The Bills really need him. Here was my estimate for a RI deal from 3/3/16. I overshot total value by $1.25M, but I'd expect the structure to be similar: "I was thinking something close to that. Bills in the $5M per and RI in the $6M per areas. What would you say to something like a 3 year deal with a $5M signing bonus, and salaries of $1M, $5M and $6M with only the first year salary guaranteed? The Bills could be out from under that in two years for $11M and the cap hit from the signing bonus would be spread over three years. First year cap hit would be $2.67M."

That's actually why I used the current rookie pool estimate in my original example. That's the most cap space they can use on rookies so they're bound by that.

http://overthecap.com/draft/ Using your methodology the four pertinent players from 2015 add up to $3.66M. As you noted, the bottom two wouldn't displace anyone. (1.71+.85+.55+.55) Adding 8.3% we get $3.96M. At this time those four would displace players making $525k each. $3.96M-(525k*4)=$3.96M-$2.1M=$1.86M. The Bills draft picks would actually only require $1.86M in effective cap space. That is precisely what I calculated.

He's 29, but will be 30 before the regular season starts. That dude made some money in Miami and Minny so I'm not sure what he'd actually play for at this point. I'm always shocked when a player who has made huge money takes a low paying contract unless it's to play for a contender. I doubt he's a match for the Bills, but it's fun to kick things like this around sometimes. A similar style player might be a nice fit, though. The Bills have to look at cheaper options to fill needs and a one trick deep threat at WR is going to be easier to find (and cheaper) than a complete one.

I think a case can be made for Osemele getting paid large, but $8M for Boone? I think we're seeing agents trying to drive up prices during the legal tampering period. Things always get a little crazy around now. Let's see where things land. Of course, it only takes one team.....

Yeah. Signing Gilmore and Glenn to long term deals would help a great deal in both immediate cap relief and long term talent retention. Yes. The Bills' rookie pool is right at $5M, but under the Rule of 51 we will see 6 players fall out of the top 51 when those draftees are signed. Those removed salaries will be about $500k each, so the effective cap space the Bills will need to sign their picks only will be about $2M. $5M-(6*$500k)=$2M. That's good news.