FireChan

Exaclty. I'm not saying there's a sure thing. Just saying that maximizing your chances is logically the best path forward for success. Not taking chances virtually ensures you'll never hit. Why? There's no guarantee we take Manziel over Teddy or Carr. And no, it may not have worked if we took those 3 guys. Although Lynch and Grayson haven't seen any action for a long period of time yet. As to your point about other positions, currently have 3 players who were first round non-QB's on our roster over the last 10 years, 1 is unhealthy but elite, 1 is a drug addict and suspension fiend but elite, and the other is okay. You don't really need first rounders for other positions either. And as we've all seen, no QB means no Super Bowl the vast majority of the time, elite WR's and DT's notwithstanding. If you look historically throughout the NFL, I believe that top 10 runs around 50%. Here's a link from 2008 that I'd say still applies. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/143999-a-case-not-to-draft-a-qb-outside-of-the-1st-round/ I'll try to find the other analysis on 1st rounders. Also, mean is notorious for being affected by outliers. Check the median draft position.

That's actually, unequivocally, incorrect. You have a higher chance of drafting a franchise in the top 10 than the rest of the 1st. The crapshoot argument is for folks who think Whaley's done fine because he drafted 1 QB in 3 years in the 4th round..

Way ahead of you bro.

100% agree. We should've been taking QB's in the first since 2014. Then we wouldn't be in this trainwreck.

Does he play as good as he did this season? Probably not. Would he still be the most promising rookie out of 2016? Probably. Remember that best O-line in football didn't make guys like Cassel, Weeden and Kellen Moore look like anything but bad QB's last season.

Nope. But that's where you have the best chance. Guys like Dak aren't in every draft.

No. I think Whaley could be gone with a 6-10 record.

I'm sure there were just as many mental gymnastics and obscure stats to defend JP in his day. How so?

JP has thrown that ball.

The argument against keeping TT is that he puts us out of the "good QB prospect" range. Don't just take it from me though. Buffalo Bills general manager Doug Whaley said Wednesday that the Bills are "almost in quarterback purgatory" because they do not have a franchise quarterback and are unlikely to pick near the top of the draft in coming years. "We're good enough that we're not going to have the first or second [overall] pick," Whaley told WGR 550 on Wednesday. "We hope we're not in that position. Hopefully now we're drafting in the teens and the 20s and the 30s. So you're not going to get those college guys that are coming out. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/13382343/buffalo-bills-almost-quarterback-purgatory-gm-doug-whaley-says

How does the # of designed rollouts and boots in this new offense compare to the # called in 2015 and 2016?

Maybe. Then again we brought in Matt frickin' Leinhart 2 years ago. I would've bet my life on that dude being a used car salesman for eternity. Talent is just a little subjective. I won't lie, I loved Manziel in college and I'm certainly biased. If you asked me who to bring in today, Tyler Wilson or Manziel, I take the Money Team 10/10 times. Sure. 26 derailed us a bit. Please answer the question I posed to you. How does this offense play to his strengths compared to last years and 2015's offense?

TT's prior to 2015 career stats were: 19/35 0 TD's 2 INT's There was zero indication he could play either.

Incognito was blackballed by the NFL. Your take is wholly painted by the fact Richie turned it around in Buffalo. He wasn't even considered by a huge contingent on this board. Similar to reaction to Manziel today. Now, that being said, are the chances of them working out equal? No, of course not. Richie was a proven decent vet at least and Johnny is definitely not there yet. I was only speaking towards the reaction to the idea. How does this offense play to his strengths compared to last years and 2015's offense? As to the summary of my posting, I'm wholly consistent. I've argued, sometimes successfully sometimes not so much, for low-risk, high reward moves because this team needs to hit the lottery. Staying with TT is a milk toast move now that we know what he is. Signing TT 2 years ago for peanuts to take a shot was a good move. Signing Richie Incognito for peanuts was a great move. Taking upper round talent in 5th -7th rounds because of off the field stuff was great. Why that logic of "sign/draft them cheaply and there's virtually zero risk to bringing them in" applies to guys like Karlos, Richie etc and not to a former 1st round QB who was a Heisman winner and has barely shown how he can play in the NFL does not make any sense. I'd be prepared to Johnny to not be clean, stink and be cut in 2 weeks. No skin off my behind. So why limit yourself?

Remember when Incognito was a "perish the thought" signing? Pepperidge Farms remembers. What was your take on that? Something something, toxic player. Something something bad for the locker room. Something something NFW?

Especially with Sammy's surgery looming. Poor planning to say the least.

If you really wanted to pinch pennies, you don't tender him at all.

Wins him 8 games or so without any chance at real success. Short term thinking. Say too bad, I got hired as the GM?

The difference was $700k. We didn't need it.

I don't know if you saw the "keeping TT part" but that's the part Whaley has control over.

Semantic argument. We lowballed him because we didn't care if he got away.

Terrible news. Whaley strikes again putting his job security ahead of the team.

The premise of the OP was that you need "playoff caliber #2/#3 WR's" and that you need top 10 picks to fill those roles. He made this point because of two games today. 2 games where a WR who went #6 overall put up the exact same stat line as an UDFA Lacrosse player. Laughable.

Of course it does. Gotta play for keeps now.

Supply and demand? Brock O is the perfect example.