Rocky Landing

Newton, Luck, and RGIII are very different discussions. I agree that "at some point you might have to take a step back in order to move forward." And, Newton, Luck and Griffin might be worth the step back- not Dalton. Plus, I'm tired of moving back. It's been what, three years since the miserable Dick Jauron, and everyone associated with him, was sent packing? It feels like Gailey/Nix have been building for this year. Not next year or the year after. I'll agree with this distinction. But, Chan wouldn't be a very good coach if he didn't modify his system around the strengths of his QB. Also, I take Chan at his word that he has faith in Fitz as their franchise QB. So, the distinction is largely semantic.

Let's not go there. This is football, not politics.

Of course, this is a purely academic exercise, BUT... I would definitely NOT trade Fitz for Dalton right now. Gailey has built the system around Fitz and every reasonable indicator gives Fitz a very good chance of performing at or above the level he played at during the first half of last season. If that happens, we have a winning team. Putting in another QB (save for the very few elite QBs) would be a step backwards- especially one with only one season under his belt. Perhaps moving forward with Fitz will be a step in the wrong direction, but we won't know until we start playing. It's a choice between moving forward or moving backward. Personally, I have very high hopes for Fitz. I say, move forward.

Using the QB (passer) rating really has very little meaning in your argument. For those who don’t know, the formula for the passer rating is: [(a + b + c + d)/6] x 100, whereas a = [(completions/attempts x 100) – 30] x 0.05; b = [(yards/att) – 3] x 0.25; c = (TD/att) x 20; and d = 2.375 – (interceptions/att x 25). Q: What’s missing from this equation? A: any variables that include the performance of any other player on the field other than the quarterback. So, if a QB has no offensive line to speak of and is only given an average of 1.6 seconds to get rid of the ball before being sacked, their rating will be low. Or, if a QB is playing a superior defense, their rating will be lower. That’s why Matt Stafford of the Lions could have a rating of 121.9 against the Panthers, and a 66.5 the following week against the Packers. Conversely, if a QB has great protection, like Tom Brady for most of his career, his rating will tend higher. In real statistical terms (as opposed to the armchair variety practiced by fans on these boards and pundits on ESPN), there are no published p-values, critical values, significance levels, or confidence intervals for the passer rating. Why? A: because it is statistically meaningless; it has no use for statistical analysis. I think that the only use for the passer rating is for (crudely) tracking a single QB's performance against weekly variables such as the one's mentioned above. It has almost no value for comparing different players on different teams. In fact, I would go as far as to say that it is a better indicator of team performance than of QB performance.

I'm definitely not one of those "worried" fans. But, it does somehow make me feel a little more at ease to read an article that doesn't heap praise on the Bills. Like last season, I always felt a little better going into a game as an underdog- which were most of the games we won. We lost most of the games we were favored in. All that aside, this article reads like some high school kid's homework assignment. (no offense, Teen Insight.)

If he can't run, he's a below average QB.

I bet every season- I live in L.A., but do a lot of work in Vegas. I also Have a bookie who covers bets based on Vegas Insider consensus. Generally speaking, I don't bet on the Bills games (emotions will cloud judgment). I was surprised to see the LV Hilton had opened betting on the week one opener about seven weeks ago. They had the Jets favored by 5.5. How could I pass that up? At this moment, the spread has dropped to 4 points for the Jets. I would be surprised if it didn't continue to drop.

Finally, something to talk about.

F**K BUFFALO WILD WINGS.

Meh. It was just a Camry. Show me Darius lifting a Cadillac, or an SUV, or Rex Ryan's ego, or a Pats fan's mouth and I'll be impressed.

Great artwork. Very cool. Thanks, Guffalo, for sharing these with us.

In response to this, and many other threads, I have to ask: is there a difference between an "excuse" and a "reason?" At the beginning of last season, Fitz looked great. He looked like a franchise QB. He got a contract like a franchise QB. He started getting press and people like Jaws and Jon Grudin started singing his praise. Then his play fell off and he was back to being, "average at best," "inconsistent," "Buffalo needs to resolve their QB issues," etc, etc. etc... Even people on these boards are repeating these phrases- people who presumably are paying attention. There seems to be a near obsession with the zero tolerance concept of "no excuses" that causes willful amnesia. OK, I get it. No excuses. Fitz never made excuses. He said all the right things: "it all rests on me...," "I need to elevate my play...," "no excuses...," etc. BUT... as fans (and as amateur analysts), can we not agree that there is a difference between a reason and an excuse? There were reasons for Fitz's play dropping off. They are obvious. They are well documented. And, it's foolish to discount them all for the sake of the phrase, "no excuses." Let's see Brady, Brees, or even Ben Rothlisberger play with cracked ribs and missing key players.

Not from The Onion, but I'll take that as a compliment. Like the rest of us, I'm just getting a little stir crazy and pining for the start of the season.

I thought I’d share some interesting reports that I have recently read out of New Jersey. From: New York Jets Flight Crew Cheerleader Jets Experiment with New Form of Shotgun Position. “Since it is expected that QB Mark Sanchez will be spending much of his time on his back in the season opener against the Bills, HC Rex Ryan has been experimenting with a new form of the shotgun where, instead of Sanchez standing several feet back from center, he actually lies prone on the ground and dumps the ball to the nearest green jersey. In response to the new scheme, Sanchez has been seen at the MetLife Stadium gift shop looking at Jets beach towels.” From: The New Jersey Picayune New Jets Uniforms? “In preparation for the week one opener versus the Bills, Jets management has been adjusting the uniform’s shade of green to better blend in with the exact color of the MetLife Stadium turf. “We feel that the better Mark (Sanchez) can blend in, the better chance he will have of surviving out there,” said General Manager Mike Tannenbaum. “I just hope to God Marcell Dareus isn’t colorblind.”” From: Jersey Sports Beat: Tebow Working on his Passing Game. As part of Tony Sparano’s “collapsing pocket offense,” for week one against the Bills, Tim Tebow has been seen practicing his throw while running backwards at full speed. When asked about Tebow’s progress, Sparano stated optimistically, “they look about the same as all his other throws.”

I'm a life long Bills fan transplanted to Southern California for the last 20 years. And so I've had to endure the Chargers and their bitchy, pouty, whining, "elite" QB Phillip Rivers. And, let me assure you of this: never underestimate the ability of the Chargers to inexplicably lose games.

Great post. It's impossible to not be proud of the Bills! I just can't wait for the season to start so that we can be proud of them during the season!

I'm convinced that muscle memory and proprioception can be improved continually throughout one's life. I've been an avid skier since I was three and I never took lessons. A few years ago, in my mid forties, I went to a three day clinic taught by some world class skiers. My technique improved dramatically and it stuck. I am skiing better now than at any time in my life. Having watched the recent press conference where Fitz talked about working with Lee, and knowing Fitz's character and intelligence, I would be most surprised if his mechanics weren't improved.

I completely disagree with this. But, if, as you say, "his thowing stats tell the story," then look at his throwing stats! Vince Young has consistently thrown around a 60% completion rate, with a career average of 57.9%. His 2011 completion rate with the Eagles was 57.9%. Thigpen has thrown anywhere from the low 30s to the mid 50s. His best season was in '08 with a completion percentage of 54.8%. His completion rate for 2011 was a whopping 37.5%. The thowing stats tell the story indeed!

I believe that you do have to have a med note for that- I remember LaDainian Tomlinson talking about that once. But I don't think it's a hard thing to get. LT just told the doctor that the bright lights hurt his eyes and gave him a headache. Done.

It's only a matter of time before we see them shaped like flames, gnashing teeth, skull and crossbones, etc. Why not? As long as it doesn't affect the game, I couldn't care less. What does bother me are the tinted visors so that you can't see the player's eyes. I've always suspected that gives a player- especially a QB or RB- an unfair advantage.

Thigpen took more than eight snaps last year. He made eight pass attempts with three completions and one interception. It's hard to compare the two based on such a small amount of playing time compared to Young, but Young's completion percentage was much higher. And, if you compare their career stats, Young has had a much more productive career. I'm certainly not a fan of Vince Young. I was highly skeptical when they signed him. But, now that he's here, we have to take the best QB for the job who can step in and be dynamic. Thigpen ain't that guy.

It's not brilliant. It's silly. And, btw, I did in fact read the post. My comment was sarcastic. I simply meant that the thread is a waste of time. Are you actually suggesting that the "veteran leadership on this team" stand up in front of the press and counter the praise we've received in the media? To what end? Maybe you didn't read your post. You wrote: "players like fitz and barnett and wilson and yes now stevie need to be much more vocal about not listening to the hype..." That's hilarious. I can just see Fitz standing in front of a microphone, "hey guys, don't believe the hype, we're not that good!" And, I would love for you to give one example of ANY player saying or doing anything that would qualify as "delusional self adulation." The praise that the Bills have received has been well deserved. To say that "everybody and their mother framing the bills offseason as the best in the nfl," is an exaggeration. There are several other teams that pundits are citing as having the best offseason including the Patriots (Steve Wyche). Many believe that Tampa Bay has had the best offseason, and I would agree. GO BILLS!

I'm sorry, but that post is way too long for me to read.

Is Graham really going to be that much more physical? From the footage I've observed (admittedly limited) I thought he seemed less aggressive- more like a gazelle than a horse. On a couple of the highlights that were shown during the draft, I thought to myself: if Fitz ever hangs him out midfield, it might be the end of his career. That being said, he will certainly be faster than Roscoe.

I'm not exactly sure what you're talking about regarding Anderson. Are you suggesting that Anderson's performance last season should be considered above his baseline? Did he have games with a lot of sacks that you think should be considered outliers? Yours is the first post on here that I've read that doesn't consider him a good acquisition. Pleas explain.