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Everything posted by Kemp
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Trump's 4th of July Speech thread
Kemp replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Again, if it's a states rights issue why aren't some of the states interested? Shouldn't every state have a paper trail, since we know that cybersecurity is terribly weak? Was it that 400 pound kid that Trump told us about? Do you also see a risk in trying to verify election results? -
Trump's 4th of July Speech thread
Kemp replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
A lot better than the fellow who believes there is a "risk" in having an honest election. Maybe you can tell us about this risk. -
Trump's 4th of July Speech thread
Kemp replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
"It's states' rights to not address it as well". This is one of my favorite things I've ever read here. I choose to not try and preserve a fair and honest election process because well you know........ What risk? -
Trump's 4th of July Speech thread
Kemp replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Wow! Your argument is that states don't necessarily care if their voting outcomes can be altered by outside entities. The only conclusion that can be drawn from that, is that Republicans would prefer that results favor them, even if criminally attained. An interesting take, to say the least. It's not often that one argues for the side of criminal interference against fair elections in America, at least by a loyal American. -
Trump's 4th of July Speech thread
Kemp replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Okay. Here is the follow-up part of Mr. Prieto's testimony: "That is an accurate rendering of the conversation at the staff meeting but the larger context is something that we can discuss in the classified session," Daniel said. "But I can say there were many concerns about how many people were involved in the development of the options so the decision at that point was to neck down the number of people that were involved in our ongoing response options. It's not accurate to say all activities ceased at that point. " Daniel and his team were tasked in developing options to Russia's cyberattacks on the United States. Russian hacked the Democratic National Committee servers in 2015 and into voter registration systems of several U.S. states in 2016. Risch asked if Daniel's area of supervision completely ceased after the "stand down" order. "No, we shifted our focus in that September and October time frame to focus heavily on better protecting and assisting the states in better protecting the electoral infrastructure and ensuring that we had the greatest visibility as possible into what the Russians were doing and developing essentially an incident response plan for election day," Daniel said. So, there were clearly other parts of this story still being investigated. It was not dropped. My turn, again. Which states have addressed the issue since McConnell says it's a state issue? His own state doesn't even have a paper trail. Nine other states — Pennsylvania, Texas, Kansas, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi — use a combination of paper ballots and electronic machines without a paper trail, per Verified Voting. Perhaps this list is no longer accurate because it's from February, 2018. -
Trump's 4th of July Speech thread
Kemp replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
All of these sources are wrong? https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/07/us/politics/election-security-mitch-mcconnell.html https://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/450334-senate-gop-blocks-election-security-bill https://thehill.com/homenews/house/450737-house-passes-sweeping-democrat-backed-election-security-bill https://www.salon.com/2019/05/30/despite-muellers-warning-mcconnell-blocks-bipartisan-election-security-bills/ https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/01/election-security-russia-1296865 https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-block-250-million-election-security-measure-1533144561 If it's a case of states rights, which states have enacted similar measures as to what's in the federal bills? As I wrote to Rhino, if it's a states rights issue, which states have addressed it? -
Trump's 4th of July Speech thread
Kemp replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
You answered a question with a question. I'll try and answer your questions, but not if you avoid mine. -
Trump's 4th of July Speech thread
Kemp replied to Trump_is_Mentally_fit's topic in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
McConnell is refusing to bring to a vote any bill to safeguard the elections from foreign attack. Why do you believe that is or do you not believe that to be true? -
What if a stable genius designed it?
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NFL.com ranks Top 25 QB's of All Time: Jim Kelly #21
Kemp replied to StHustle's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
And QB is by far the most important player in determining winning and losing, and is the most important position in any sport. A QB can't win by himself, but good QBs elevate their team. Anyone who says Brady isn't a top 25 QB is a fool. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Here is what you said: "I don’t think it’s coincidence that the guy who looked the best last season - Mayfield- had the most talent around him just like it’s not a coincidence that the QB who struggled the most - Rosen- had the least talent. For Shatz to say if Allen succeeds it will be because of the talent around him is laughable, that’s true of all young QBs and just about all QBs in general. Does anybody think Mahomes is the MVP if he doesn’t have the best offensive talent in the league around him?" You attributed Mayfield's success to having "the most talent around him". You attributed Rosen's poor season to he had the "least talent" around him". You said that surrounding talent talent is responsible "for all young QBs and just about all QBs in general". You said Mahomes would not have been the MVP :"if he doesn't have the best offensive talent in the league around him". How did I distort your position? Those are your words. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I'm saying his stats have been poor in college and in the NFL, but admit he might improve. You say he has a better than 50% chance of success based on certain qualities that you can't define other than intangibles. I am comfortable with my position and you are comfortable with yours. Hopefully, you're right, because I don't want another 3-year window of waiting. The easy answer to that is for every Peyton Manning there are 10 QBs who start slowly and don't get better. Manning is the unusual case. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The belief that he wouldn't be accurate in the NFL is a result of his being inaccurate in college. It might turn out to be wrong, but you are saying it's wrong based on even less evidence. This IT factor that some of you are talking about is 100% opinion-based. Doesn't mean it will turn out wrong, but you can't argue that it's based upon anything that can be verified. You're saying that the offense makes the QB. I think it's the opposite. If you were correct, no QB should ever be taken early in the draft. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
A - That he is big and throws hard? JaMarcus Russell had that. B - Fitzpatrick had a higher score, I believe. Presence in media situations is of no value as a predictor of success. C - Is of no value as a predictor of success. D - Is of no value as a predictor of success. Again, this doesn't mean he won't be great, but it in no way points to success, either. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Putting aside analytics for a second, Allen has to vastly improve in 2 areas: 1. Accuracy 2. Making quicker and more accurate decisions. Might happen. Might not. I remember in training camp last season there were a few articles saying his inaccuracy was caused by poor footwork and that the coaching staff would fix it. They didn't. Hopefully, they figure it out this season, because coaches and fans will be far less forgiving next offseason if it doesn't get fixed. 2019 will answer most of the questions around Allen. It's succeed or head towards a backup role time. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
What tells you that Allen more than anyone else is an analytical unicorn? The fact that the third best QB (statistically) in a poor conference is proof that the top conferences operate in a flawed system by not taking him? What pedigree are you referring to? He may end up in the NFL Hall of Fame but I'm not certain what you see in him that indicates he will definitely be an unmitigated success. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
All analytics is, is interpreting stats. Your saying they are irrelevant going forward are based on what? -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Nothing exactly predicts he will fail. Because you understand what analytics is, you know that. Analytics is about using the stats as a predictive tool. Coming out of college, Mayfield was easily the best according to analytics. Allen was a very distant fourth. In my opinion, Mayfield was easily the best of the rookie QBs. He elevated his team. Now, many are predicting them to be in the playoffs in 2019. Allen's passing stats were borderline terrible. The excuse given is that his team stunk, but Buffalo had one of the very best defenses in the NFL and won 6 games. That's not entirely Allen's fault, obviously, but did he make them even an average offense? Everyone on this board thinks the offense is vastly improved, so I guess we'll find out what that translates into in 2019. I hope Allen bucks the analytics, because otherwise this franchise is probably doomed for a minimum of another 3 seasons. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
To a degree, I agree, but management in the NFL definitely thinks analytics is very important. Maybe they will turn out to be wrong, but I would guess not. Hockey has moving parts, too. Drive can elevate, but it can't turn a bad player into a good one, unless you believe the overwhelming amount of professional athletes are not driven, something I would think is absurd. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
His surroundings were bad, but I think you would agree that QB is far and away the single most important player on the field, so he is most responsible for how a team does. I'm not disputing he was a rookie or that he might improve. I'm disputing that he was even serviceable as a passer last year. Who are the QBs who made it to the NFL without a work ethic and how do you know any individual player's work ethic? The analytics of his stats in college and in the NFL. Wasn't he the third best QB in a weak college conference? -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Nothing is infallible in analytics, but analytics has proven to be better than spectator's evaluations. It's of great use in baseball and hockey to management. There's no reason it shouldn't be of worth in football. The beer swilling fan would probably place last in any group of stats or people. Moneyball and The Undoing Project provide ample evidence of the worth of analytics in sports and in decision-making in general. Hockey is where I have done the most reading about it. Hockey is all about how a player impacts team possession time and how he influences shots for his team and how well he suppresses shots by the other teams. The results of these analytics often clashes with what you think you are seeing and analytics has proven to be far more accurate as a predictor than what you think you are seeing. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Nope. I suppose a couple have made it to the NFL without it, but I bet they weren't around long. You still have Mayfield 4th in that group? What an athlete says is totally meaningless. All that matters is how he performs. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Sorry, I didn't know it was tongue-in-cheek. That's sometimes tough to see in writing. I am not disputing that you may turn out to be right about his future, but the odds are against you. I am disputing the notion that he was anywhere near good enough as a passer last year. His support did suck, but he did, too. He has a far better cast this season so he has no excuse to not show big improvement. Can we agree on that? I don't believe rushing is included, but I'm not disputing he's a good runner. I'm disputing that he was a good passer last season. -
Aaron Schatz Football Outsiders-- Still Doubts Josh
Kemp replied to JESSEFEFFER's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Of course they have an opinion. You even knew their opinions before the draft. Mayfield graded out the highest with Allen the lowest (of the top guys). All Head Coaches and GMs now consider the analytics. Every team has a growing analytics department. That doesn't mean they will follow the analytics to every detail, but there's enough evidence now that in every sport, analytics are a pretty good guide to pay attention to. This is no longer a debatable issue.