mjt328

This is how I see the AFC East's Top 5 starting receivers in terms of overall talent: Vets: Stevie Johnson > Mike Wallace > Danny Amendola > Santonio Holmes > Brian Hartline The advantage the Dolphins have is that other teams are relying heavy on young/rookie wide receivers. They have a solid vet in Brian Hartline. However, these young players don't need to be very good to bypass Hartline. Here is how I would rank the Top 5 young receivers in our division: Robert Woods > Da'Rick Rogers > Aaron Dobson > Stephen Hill > TJ Graham

So... Stevie loses his starting job to 3 rookie receivers, yet still manages to have a career year and make the Pro Bowl. And... Even with our #4 receiver putting up 1,000+ yards receiving (what does that say for the other 3 guys), we still manage to run the ball enough for CJ Spiller to lead the NFL in rushing AND his backup to win the Comeback Player of the Year.

I know right after the draft, every prospect looks like a future Pro Bowler. But before we start talking playoffs or comparing ourselves to the Steelers - Nix has to start actually HITTING on his picks. In case anyone forgot, our 2010 was a complete disaster. Spiller is the only starter from that entire group. Carrington has been a good backup. But that's it. And 2011 is right on its heels... Despite the glowing reviews on that class, we've had very disappointing results so far. Dareus followed a good rookie season with a very disappointing sophomore campaign. Aaron Williams was so bad, he's switching positions. Kelvin Sheppard got traded for another team's major bust. Chris Hairston is buried on the depth chart.

Post-draft is always a time of very high optimism. But realistically, we all know this team will not succeed until it gets a high level of play from the QB position. Drafting EJ Manuel was (hopefully) a big step in the right direction. But even if he is destined for a great NFL career, it could take some time for him to get there. Most likely, we will start the season with Kevin Kolb and get the same level of play as we did with Fitzpatrick. There is a good chance that Manuel will break the starting lineup before the season is over - which will likely mean some growing pains.

"Track Star" is a buzz word that has been used for years to describe guys that are drafted because of their speed. It's ironic that Goodwin is actually a track star. I'm not necessarily a stat guy, but I do put weight on production. If a receiver isn't catching the ball consistently in college, why do you expect him to become a stud in the pros? There were probably 5-6 receivers available at that spot who put up more production in a single season than Goodwin had in his entire career. I'll admit, I have only seen limited footage on him. Maybe 4 full games from his senior season. In that limited footage I saw a guy who had trouble running routes and couldn't locate the ball in the air when changing directions. His best plays (big surprise) were actually running plays and a deep throw where he blew past the cornerback. Like I said. If this was 2010, I would probably be more willing to give Nix the benefit of the doubt. But I've been watching picks like this for 3 seasons now, and none of our GM's ridiculous reaches have panned out. He hasn't been able to nab a starter later than the 4th round (Bradham).

Why is Nix so terrified about losing draft picks? He wastes everything we get after the 3rd-4th round. This guy was slated to go as an UDFA. Last year, our 5th round pick was CUT before the season.

Only time will tell. Nix has been horrible at drafting over the last 3 seasons, especially in the mid/late rounds. It's absolutely VITAL for teams to find solid starters in Rounds 3-4, and solid depth after that. He hasn't done that so far as the Bills GM, so it's hard for a lot of us to trust his eye for talent - especially when he steers so far away from expert opinion and what seems like the common sense approach. In my opinion, Kiko Alonso has the potential to be a decent starter and would have been a nice addition as our 3rd round pick. But over Arthur Brown? On the surface, this looks like a stupid move. The same with Marquise Goodwin, who is basically a track star with no receiving ability. Most likely, this guy will eventually settle in as our #4 or #5 receiver - assuming he develops some hands and route running skills. Is he a terrible player to take a chance on? Not necessarily. But in the 3rd round, we need to be targeting STARTERS, not sleepers and projects. Most of us thought TJ Graham was a reach last year... but we were told the Bills front office knew what it was doing. One year in, Graham doesn't look like anything special.

Wife: "Are you excited about the draft?" Me: "Yeah. I'm just hoping the Bills don't do something stupid." Wife: "But you know they will. They always do." Me: "But. uh... (silence)"

Agreed. I think everyone would agree the "ideal" situation is to move down, and still get the guy we want. But you've got Jacksonville, Oakland, Arizona, Philadelphia and New York - and quite possibly Kansas City and Cleveland - all thinking the exact same thing. Every QB-needy team is targeting their guy in the early 2nd. It's quite possible that one or more will panic and trade back into the first. Unfortunately, we are probably in the worst position of them all. Our first pick is too high to waste on a 2nd round talent (at least according to most experts). But our second pick comes after all of the teams listed above.

I agree 150%. Bust. Bust. Bust. I've watched a lot of Mingo. He does manage to make 2 or 3 great plays every game. The rest of the time, he is COMPLETELY stonewalled. If he doesn't manage to blow past the blocker with his speed - he's done. He cannot disengage from blocks and he's a complete non-factor in the run.

Ha... That was the first question that came to my mind too.

By the time we are competitive, Spiller will be asking to be paid like one of the top backs in the NFL. Then after a year or two, he will be a 7-8 year vet and on the downside of his career. On the flipside, if we had drafted Jimmy Clausen, the team might have been bad enough to be in the position for Luck or RG3 in 2012. Just something to think about.

That's exactly my point. You can't compare the impact a QB has on the game to a guard. If we draft a QB and hit a homerun, we are back in the playoffs. We draft Warmack and hit a homerun, our team is slightly better than last season with Levitre.

Best player available should always be balanced with positional importance, supply & demand and team needs. Last year, most rankings had Matt Kalil, Trent Richardson and David DeCastro listed as the best overall players in the draft. But the Colts and Redskins would have been nuts to pass on Luck or RG3.

If we go WR at #8, it better be Tavon Austin. Patterson's best attribute is his gamebreaking ability after the catch, and I would venture to say that Austin is better in that area. Not to mention that Austin is a better route runner, has better hands and he has more than a season worth of production. In my opinion, the WR class is loaded with Day 2 talent that may also be better than Patterson. There is a great chance that guys like Robert Woods, DeAndre Hopkins or Justin Hunter (who was the #1 receiver at Tennessee, not Patterson) will be available.

If you count the top 3 rounds, Nix has used 3 of his 9 draft picks on cornerbacks (Williams, Gilmore, Brooks). On top of that, our roster still has a former first rounder from the last regime (McKelvin). We've used plenty of resources on that position. Time to focus our attention to some areas.

Your memory on Brees is terrible. He was drafted in 2001 and barely took a snap his rookie season. Doug Flutie was the starter all year. His first full year starting was 2002, and by most accounts he was very solid. His only bad season was in 2003, and San Diego decided that quick it was time to move on. They drafted Rivers. The next year he made the Pro Bowl, and he's been amazing ever since.

I agree with this. It's one thing to make the mistake of drafting/signing the wrong player in the first place. But if a guy doesn't look like the answer immediately (especially at quarterback), it certainly can't hurt adding some competition to the mix.

If we EVER want to compete for a Super Bowl, our expectations need to be much higher than this. Enough with the excuses. Either a guy has an eye for talent, or he's throwing darts at a wall. Over the last 3 years, Nix has bypassed (several times) Pro Bowl talent at need positions. He's bypassed (several times) solid starters at need positions. And almost every player he's taken has either underperformed badly or been a complete and utter bust. It's not just that he passed on Dalton and Kaepernick, when we desperately needed a quarterback. It's that he pounced on Aaron Williams instead, then boasted that he was a guy who "fell" out of the first round. Nix thought he got a steal. But the majority of reports I read that day said that Williams dropped because MOST teams saw him as a safety in the pros. Nix thought he knew better. But after two horrible seasons at cornerback, Williams looks like a player better suited for...(drum roll)...safety. Same thing last year. Passing on Wilson was one thing. But passing on him for TJ Graham was quite another. Most of the experts said we reached for a speed guy with poor route running skills and bad hands - who may have still been available 1-2 rounds later. Nix thought he knew better. After an unimpressive rookie season, Graham looks EXACTLY like how the rest of the league had him pegged. Bottom line, the GM's job duties include: 1) Hiring Head Coaches 2) Adding Talent 3) Managing the Salary Cap >> Nix's first head coaching choice was a complete bust. >> When Nix arrived, we had major holes at roughly 11 of 22 starting spots (QB, WR2, TE, LT, RT, C, LE, RE, DT, SLB, CB). Now entering his fourth draft, we still have holes at roughly 8 of 22 starting spots (QB, WR2, LG, RE, MLB, WLB, CB, SS). At that rate, we may be competitive by 2017 or 2018. >> Even after cutting 4 veteran starters (Fitz, Barnett, McGee, Wilson), watching a couple retire (Kelsay, Merriman) and letting Levitre walk, we still don't have enough money to be players in free agency. He's done a terrible job of managing the cap.

Most of the qualities that QBs are judged on (arm strength, accuracy, athletic ability, pocket presence, field vision, decision making) take place before the receiver actually catches the ball. Having a spectacular receiver may slant statistics - but it's a lot harder to fool game film.

Exactly. We lose on the salary cap this year, but it helps us out tremendously for next year. This team is clearly rebuilding and we've already seen over the last 3-4 years exactly what Fitz is capable of. It's not good enough.

Actually, I think it's a pretty good argument. The main reason people are saying NOT to draft Smith, is because they claim he is a "poor prospect" compared to other draft classes. They keep saying "wait until next year and we can draft somebody better." But that's a load of bull. As a quarterback prospect, we aren't going to have a better player fall into our laps, UNLESS we bottom out and end up with the #1 pick during the right season (like the Colts last year) or trade our whole franchise to move up (like the Skins last year). In my opinion, this is the PERFECT year to draft a quarterback high - because we really aren't missing out on any elite prospects at other positions by doing so. Patterson isn't in the same ballpark as AJ Green, Julio Jones or even Justin Blackmon. If we pass on him, we can probably still get a player like Justin Hunter, De'Andre Hopkins, Da'Rick Rogers or Robert Woods in the second. Your argument about Geno Smith "making the team a contender almost by himself" is laughable. Do you feel like Patterson, Lane Johnson, Warmack or one of the other prospects getting thrown around here - would be able to make the team contenders by themselves? Obviously not. There are only a few players in the league like that (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees) and they are ALL quarterbacks.

Why does everyone think it's a good thing for us to get the HC, OC and QB all from the same college squad?

All of the quarterbacks are not equally bad. Geno Smith would be a Top 10 pick in most years. > Last year he would have gone after RGIII, but likely before Tannehill > In 2011, he would have probably gone after Cam Newton, but before Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder > In 2010, he would have gone after Sam Bradford, but before Tim Tebow or Jimmy Clausen > In 2009, he would have gone after Stafford and probably would have pushed Sanchez for the next QB off the board. > In 2008, he probably would be taken after Matt Ryan, but before Joe Flacco. Unless we completely bottom out (less than 3 wins) or trade up one of these years, drafting a quarterback rated as high as Geno Smith is the best we can EVER hope for.

The crazy numbers slot receivers are currently putting up is a relatively new phenomenon in the NFL. In my opinion, players like Welker, Amendola and Cruz are not worth anywhere near the money they are going to be asking for. Statistically speaking, Cruz may be the number one receiver on the Giants. But the real difference maker is Hakeem Nicks. He draws the double coverage downfield, while Cruz takes advantage of mismatches (against linebackers and safeties) underneath. We would be better off spending big money on a top outside receiver - maybe Greg Jennings or Dwayne Bowe.