sherpa

Not my business to tell people what to think, but with the Israeli action and how this is playing out, we are WAY better off than we were a few weeks ago. Cheer up. Imagine no sponsor of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Imagine Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Saudi Arabia able to coexist peacefully with Iran and Israel. It is all possible. Best two weeks in a very long time.

I don't see it that way at all. Israel was completely aware of the Natanz and Fordow facilities prior to their action. I read a detailed report of what it would take and the suggested efficacy of the US' Massive Ordnance Penetrator months ago, which isn't a guarantee. Either way, the Israelis have prosecuted this action with incredible skill and I doubt there have been any surprises other than Iranian incompetence since it began.

Back to the thread subject. The "two weeks" thing from Trump is getting a lot of attention by a poster in this thread. I won't comment in those threads, but...... I heard a couple days ago from an Israeli military expert who claimed that Israel could probable keep up its Air Force strikes for about :two weeks more." The next day Trump throws out the same number.

The best way is to eliminate the regime that has insisted on completing the project and annihilating Israel and the US. A new regime determined to get along with the rest of the world probably wouldn't object to eliminating the program. Note the pivot that Israeli offensive strikes have taken over the past 48 hours. They are no longer focused on missile launchers or the Iranian nuc program, but have gone after the regime's internal police. In my view that is a sign that while they are not going to overthrow the Islamic regime, they are making it easier for the Iranians to do it themselves. If there is no regime change, as BillsFanNC pointed out, assured compliance would be part of a settlement agreement.

Nobody has claimed they have such a weapon "at the ready."

That is a valid concern. The fact is that everyone knew the Iranians were violating the JCPOA. Even the Obama Administration claimed evidence of it. Never mentioned in this thread, (of course), by those who thought the John Kerry negotiated agreement was of any real value, was the reported event where the Israelis discovered detailed historical records of the program in an Iranian warehouse. 55,000 pages of documents indicating clear existing violations and intent to continue. The Israelis smuggled it out, translated it, and presented it to Trump in his first term. Anyway, there has been a constant drumbeat from intl sources about the violations up till May 31 of this year. They have never been in compliance and never intended to, JCPOA Violations Iran Docs re Nuc Program

The less the US is involved in actual "kinetics," the easier and less problematic the transition to a new Iran becomes. No need for us now. I would expect that somewhere what's left of Iran's proxies are going to do something to try to drag the US in. Last gasp, and I hope unsuccessful.

I think the use of our 30,000 lb bomb is being overplayed by the press as some magic bullet solution to this. I read a detailed report that went into great detail on the Iranian nuc program and how difficult it would be to eliminate with the underground sites and nation wide dispersal, using standard military strikes. That was written before it became obvious that Iran's air defense is gone, wo we now would have freedom to operate with some exceptions. Once the IAEA exposed the non compliance of Iran in their May 31 report, the starting piston was fired. The Israelis have been masterful in not only eliminating a good deal of the infrastructure, but in terminating a great deal of IRGC and other leadership. I don't know how it ends, but I would assert that if any hostile actions are taken against US forces or international shipping in the Gulf or Strait, it's going to be game on for the US and catastrophic for the Iranian regime.

I simply commented on a theory that US airplanes were in Iranian airspace and someone wondering if they were AWACS. Frankly, I have strong doubts that any US airplanes were in Iranian airspace, but they certainly would not be AWACS. Your post has nothing to do with mine.

Just a small point for general information. Our AWACS capability would not require anything to be in Iranian airspace. That includes Air Force and Navy. Both services have AWACS that would be well away from that airspace and be fully capable of doing their thing.

One of the peripheral issues in this involves the potential for unintended consequences. Iran has undoubtedly enriched nuclear material to near weapon's grade. I have no background on this, but it would be entirely undesirable to have any radiation escape.

We just provided them more of our smaller versions yesterday, but they don't have the 30,000 pounder, the GBU 57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, nor a means to deliver it.

This is completely not related to the horrendous crime, and I don't mean to be insensitive but....... Has anyone seen these press events from MN and the bald lady doing the sign language translation for Walz and others? She is absolutely bizarre. My wife and I can't stop laughing at her. Crazy facial expressions.

The carrier you mentioned is Nimitz. Transited the Strait of Malacca, (Singapore), and into the Indian Ocean yesterday. That leaves G. Washington, which is docked in Yokosuka, Japan for the South China Sea if need be. Regarding the oil issue, while anything is possible for a couple days anyway, I can't see what's left of the IRCG having any significant impact on the Persian Gulf. They have been decimated, and they have no support in such an action. They have also failed miserably in past attempts to disrupt intl shipping.

Maybe not. Iran's chief customer is China. Disrupt oil supplies through the Gulf and you really screw one of your few allies. Further, screwing with the Strait of Hormuz has not worked well for them and guarantees US involvement immediately, which they clearly don't desire. There's plenty of supply, and Saudi Arabia and OPEC would be more than willing to boost production. As well, oil is Iran's near only money making export, so they'd be hurting themselves. The IRGC made a fortune smuggling oil during sanctions. On the underground stuff, I don't think Israel has the ability to destroy those from the air, but I expect that with the absolute shocking display on intel capability inside Iran on the ground, they may be able to have a significant impact via espionage. Different subject, but it is pure idiocy to suggest that the Sect. of Defense is in any way responsible for a towing mishap when the Truman executed an extremely aggressive turn while the process was underway, and the other one didn't "fall off," it was an arrested landing mishap, probably a wire failure from the ship, or a hook failure on the Hornet. You think they're stalling? My guess is they have no leadership left and don't even know who is dead yet.

Insane claims warrant no response. To the subject, the program never stopped, and I consider it a waste of time, just as the agreement Jimmy Carter worked out with North Korea, the "Agreed to Framework," a deal he sprung of the Clinton Administration, never stopped N. Korea. Kicking the can is a regular strategy of politicians refusing to deal with the realities of the day.

Back to the subject, I never thought he was a particularly good deal maker. His deals involved negotiating real estate deals. Real estate is a particularly easy deal, because both parties are dealing with an appreciating asset. Thus, it is profitable to both parties to conclude an agreement. I am not aware of him ever getting a tough deal done.

Laughable. Nothing has changed. The facilities to complete the project were constructed and didn't stop. Grow up. Iran is not some goofy name within the four walls of some stupid Democrat party attempt to claim success. They never changed and they won't until stopped.

Complete nonsense, and any informed individual who knows about this stuff would laugh at this. The JCPOA did nothing to stop the Iranian development. It sought to delay it while guaranteeing it. The Iranians have never lived up to anything regarding this, and your claim is ignorant and ill informed.

I think you are making this far too complicated. The US has a bunch of personnel and equipment, including a carrier task force, in the area. Given the likelihood of an Iranian response, the Israelis probably told the US they were going to do something on Iranian soil. The US would then be prepared for a response. Thus the well publicized effort to allow non US combatants to leave the area over the past few days.

You are so clearly ignorant. The airstrikes were hardly "fantasy." What I "offer" is reality. Iran is going to develop a nuclear weapon capable of being delivered to Israel, unless stopped. No diplomacy is going to stop them, unless they view the option as a threat to their survival.

I honestly don't believe that these type of claims have any basis in reality. The bottom line is that the world is dealing with a fundamentalism Islamic group at the head of Iran and its nuc program. Do any of you care to understand what "diplomacy" means to a fundy Islamic group that thinks it has a God directive to eliminate Israel? You can disagree, but I don't think "diplomacy" means the same to the Iranian regime as it does to an obviously uninformed westerner. To change course, but I think is important, the status of this confrontation has changed immensely in the past few months since the fall of Syria. So as to not waste words, Iran is infinitely more vulnerable to offensive air strikes than it was earlier. That is not to say they can't energize their third party proxies in other countries, but they are quite vulnerable.

All of this internecine arguing in this forum is a waste of time. There is no agreement that Iran was going to sign on to to stop it's nuclear program. Only an ignorant fool with no knowledge of that regime would conclude that any US administration could force it, short of military action. Waste of time targeting the US policy. The Israelis have this figured out, and have for some time.

Buying them from N. Korea would e a gross violation of many agreements. Their nuc program has Pakistani origins and N. Korea technical support, and has for years. Producing them in N. Korea would not get them in place to launch. Delivering one of these things is a multi pronged issue. The warhead, which needs about 90% pure, the missile range and accuracy, as well as mounting the warhead on it. If they did it in N. Korea they would be found out and the weapons would likel never make it to Iran without interdiction.

No US president since 1980 has had the ability to get them to stop. The regime is intent on completing the program.