2003Contenders

While Bill Parcells' axiom of "You are what your record says you are" is a truism, I tend to believe that sometimes a team can be better or worse than another team with the same record. The title of the thread is also thought-provoking in the sense that it doesn't pose the question of which team was the best -- but which season was Jauron's best. That implies to me that the question is: In which season did Jauron do his best job coaching. Obviously with the 5-1 collapse, the 0-6 record against division foes and the well-documented series of questionable decisions made toward the end of the regular season, it is rather easy to pinpoint 2008 as his worst since coaching with the Buffalo Bills. To be honest, though, prior to this season I honestly thought he did a pretty good job with the talent and the unfortunate series of injuries that he was forced to contend with. Recall that the team went 7-9 (and was in a number of other games, losing by 3 points or less to quality opponents like the Patriots, Colts and Chargers) and that was with J.P. Losman starting every game at QB. I really do believe that he did a remarkable job of damage control and hiding our deficiencies that season. 2007 was wrought with so many injuries that one could almost give him a mulligan for the less than .500 results. Count me as one of the few on this board that was not mortified by Ralph's decision to keep Jauron around for another year. Did he deserve to be fired based on his 2008 failures? Perhaps. But, as indicated above, I feel that he has done a good coaching job in 2 of his 3 seasons here. I also believe that he may have been somewhat hampered in 2008 by the amount of youth not only on the roster -- but in the front office and coaching ranks as well. Yes, Trent Edwards just completed his first full season as a starter. But will Turk learn from his mistakes as a rookie OC? How about AVP as QB Coach? With the absence of a true GM, the entire front office had to step it up a notch (especially Brandon). Might the whole organization be better prepared after their 2008 learning experience? I believe that we will learn a lot about the direction of this team based on what goes on in the off-season. Will they make prudent decisions in free agency? Will they make full use of all possible options on draft day? How will Brandon and company handle Jason Peters' likely holdout again this season?

Some quick thoughts about Kelsay without playing the defender role too much... 1. There is more to being a DE than just getting sacks: Run containment, backing off into coverage, occupying blockers, etc. Depending on the scheme and the assigned role, a quality DE could register just a couple of sacks per year and STILL be doing his job. 2. The coaching staff seems pretty happy with Kelsay, which implies that he is playing the role envisioned for him reasonably well. 3. I think Kelsay hit free agency at exactly the right time, when salaries for DEs were going through the roof. The year before the Packers had just signed Aaron Kampman to a huge contract that seemed somewhat unwarranted at the time based on past performance. However, Kampman responded with a career year. I believe that the Bills overpaid for Kelsay's services largely because they were convinced that he was on the cusp of a breakout season. If nothing else, signing him long-term prevented a team like the Patriots from picking him up. We know that BB would find a way to best utilize Kelsay's talents. 4. Like Donte Whitner, it is hard to gauge how much Kelsay's individual production on the field has been hurt by his own versatility, which was further diluted by the rash of injuries that the team has experienced the past two seasons.

Remember what happened the last time Ralph hired a former (and highly regarded) GM who was working at ESPN at the time?

Sacks aren't everything, but back in 2005 when Sanders was the DL COach (which is what we are most interested in), his Packers recorded just 35 sacks. Our Bills managed 39.

For a guy that is getting so much hype, his college stats just don't seem to back it up. We need someone capable of applying pressure to the QB on a regular basis, and I don't know that this guy is the answer based on his college production.

Signing Greer provides all kinds of flexibility. It is insurance in case McGee walks next year. It is also insurance in case McKelvin struggles in his sophomore year. It also would keep us from having to invest a high draft pick on a CB yet again in 2009 or 2010. It sounds like Greer, who is coming off a knee injury, is willing to take a home team discount. So why not oblige?

Given the (on paper) tough schedule we have in front of us in 2009, I think it is entirely possible that this team could be MUCH better this year -- and still wind up with a losing record. With the sad recent state of this frnachise, I am satisfied with progression without even grandeurs of a playoff run.

He played the role that was intended for him. If the FO thought he was worth the money they offered, I do not believe that his performance on the field would make them believe otherwise.

I just don't see how anyone can write off Edwards just yet. There were times early this season when the team was having trouble running the football, and Edwards successfully carried the offense. I know some will argue that the opponents he faced during that 5-1 stretch were odious. However, he played a near perfect game against the Chargers, the same same Chargers team that did a pretty good job holding Peyton Manning in check in the Wild Card game a couple of weeks back. Edwards certainly hit a major speed bump after that in the divisional games and showed a weakness facing 3-4 defenses. The question will be whether or not he can adapt/adjust and continue to progress. The young man clearly has the smarts and (yes) the necessary physical tools to get the job done. If we don't see a positive progression by the end of the 2009 season, then perhaps we do need to look elsewhere. One thing that would help, I believe, is bringing in a smart veteran backup that can help him -- rather than the uncoachable likes of JP Losman. I am also not sold on AVP at QB Coach either. True, he served as a rookie in that capacity and may get better with experience. The same goes for Turk. The key is that these guys need to get together and formulate a game plan that will allow them to best take advantage of the 3-4 defensive schemes that prevail in the division. After all, the way to get into the playoffs is to figure out a way to beat the teams in your division, right? Of course, some of that may involve changes in personnel, especially Center and TE.

All of the above. The thing that I've noticed is that you just don't see our WRs getting much separation. That has been the case for years now. I tend to agree that the play calling and designed routes certainly need to improve. However, the receivers all need to do a better job of running the proper routes and making the necessary adjustments. Meanwhile, Trent needs to do a better job anticipating his throws and throwing the ball BEFORE the receiver comes out of his break. He needs to have greater confidence that his receivers will be where they need to be; the receivers need to instill that confidence by ALWAYS running the route the right way.

Have you come across reports that I haven't regarding the specifics of Jauron's contract extension? Remember, he reportedly signed the extension when the team was 5-1 and his name was being mentioned as a possible Head Coach of the Year candidate. I would suspect that he is now being paid the going rate for head coaches in the league -- and eating his contract would have cost significantly more than the $4.5 M you suggest. Not to mention, whatever amount it would have cost for his replacement and entire new staff.

With 2010 being a potentially uncapped year and severe restrictions placed on teams for how they can prorate signing bonuses in 2009, it makes smart business sense to go back to school until the CBA situation is worked out.

I agree that those are pretty realistic. Although, I have a feeling that Brown will re-sign with the Ravens.

I would love for one of the top 2-3 DEs in this year's draft to fall to us at 11. However, if that doesn't happen, then I do NOT believe that we can afford to reach for another DE just because he plays a position of need. This team has far too many decent-to-good players and few (if any) stud players. I would be willing to draft a player at virtually any position (except for maybe RB) if I thought he had the chance to be a true difference-maker.

T.O. is fast running out of opportunities, given his age and track record of being a poor teammate. However, he has actually shown that he will usually behave himself the first season with a team -- even in Philly and Dallas. Assuming that he is let go and assuming that there isn't much interest in him, I don't see the downside in signing him to a one-year veteran minimum contract (possibly with incentives). Yes, he has a tendency to drop passes and he's slid a little in recent years, but opponents still MUST account for him on every play. Imagine how that would finally free up Lee, not to mention open up the running game.

Or, how about if we brought in a DC and OC that were as good at coaching up their units as Bobby April is with his?

Remember also that Fine missed the first few weeks of the season with an injury.

Isn't Boldin a free agent?

Since I firmly believe that the team's greatest need is at OLB/DE, provided we bring in a major upgrade at DE, I can live with bringing Crowell back at OLB.

Actually he does have one of the strongest arms in the NFL. He CAN throw the ball with a lot of zip. You are, however, quite right about his over-long delivery, which when coupled with his lack of mobility, make him a sitting duck in the pocket. I would say that he is a cross between Bledsoe and Cunningham WITHOUT Cunningham's legs, of course. Still, not a bad option at all as a backup.

I think the point is well taken that this team clearly lacks depth. By the end of the season, for example, the Bills were down to bare bones at LB. However, the article fails to address the key that it also matters WHICH starters are injured. Is it any coincidence that the pass rush eroded when Schobel, the best pass rusher by far, was sidelined?

Just some random thoughts... 1. In a way, Ralph is fighting a battle on two fronts. The first is against the NFLPA and their intent on maximizing player payroll -- and the second is against the large market owners in the NFL and their intent on not having to share revenue. The previous CBA only guaranteed the players a percentage of the shared revenue (TV contract, ticket sales, NFL merchandise), which didn't hamper the smaller market teams. The new CBA guarantees the players a roughly 60% share of TOTAL revenue. That is no big deal for the larger market teams that command a bigger percentage of the total league revenue. In fact, that percentage is estimated to be less than 40% of the total operating income of a team like Dallas or Washington. Meanwhile, it figures to be more like 70-80% of a smaller market team like Buffalo. Any small business owner knows that you are not going to stay in business long if you spend that much on primary labor, which doesn't even count other forms of labor (coaching staff, front office, admins, etc.) That's why ol' Ralph was one of only two owners smart enough to vote against this horrid CBA that Tagliabu shoved down their throats on his way out the door. 2. To help qualm this imbalance, that CBA allowed for additional revenue sharing -- but the smaller market teams had to promise to do more of their part to help generate more of their own revenue. I am sure that the Jerry Joneses, Dan Snyders and Robert Krafts of the world are very upset with Ralph for NOT selling naming rights to the stadium. Some of these owners probably are doing what they can to try to force the team to move to a larger market. I believe whole heartedly that Toronto deal had NOTHING whatsoever to do with a potential move there -- and much more to do with Ralph's attempt to abide by the new CBA and generate additional revenue. In a way, it was somewhat of a genius move because -- not only did it generate a sizable amount of additional revenue, but it also proved that our Northern neighbors wouldn't be as supportive of an NFL franchise as some thought. No one is seriously talking about the Bills moving to Toronto, since the Miami "home" game. 3. Yes, Ralph does have an agenda. Ralph has shown that he is willing to spend money, when the ROI is worth it. Obviously after crying poverty, he can't afford to blow his cover by throwing out huge sums of cash to top notch free agents or in-demand coaches/front office personnel. That is also why Dick Jauron will be with us for another year. Firing him after he signed a (purported) 3-year extension would have cost Ralph probably $6-9 M, plus the cost of hiring a new head coach (and staff). We may not like that decision, but it was probably a no-brain business decision. It is hard to suggest that a good business decision is a "cheap" one. There probably would not have been much upside to bringing in a new coach this year, either. 2008 was disappointing, but with what looks to be a difficult 2009 schedule on the horizon, it really is hard to imagine any new coach leading the team to a record much better than 7-9. Thus, if the team struggles again in 2009 -- it would make more sense to fire Jauron then. 4. I think that the league is filled with different types of owners. There are those that are great money men, have a passion for winning -- and know a thing or two about the game of football. Jerry Jones falls into that category. So did Al Davis before he went plum loco. Then there are owners like Dan Snyder that are great with money, have a passion for winning -- but don't know the first thing about football. The problem for Snyder is that he THINKS he knows about football. There are, of course, the owners like Kraft who know that they don't know, which is why they hire the best front office people around. I think Ralph somewhat falls into this category as well -- although he has a tendency to meddle. I fear, also, that his commitment to making money also supersedes his passion for winning. He is, after all, a businessman first -- and a football fan second.

How many games did KC win with him?

I love Bruce and he is a sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famer. But part of me would love to see him get snubbed this year -- just so we could all hear the self serving #78 spend all year whining about it.

Modrak is a pretty straight shooter. You can usually tell from his pre-daft comments which players he advocates. This year, I thought he clearly had his eye on McKelvin from day one, suggesting that he was definitely a top 10 player. Last year he also couldn't say enough great things about Lynch -- almost to the point where some folks thought he was just blowing smoke. I never got the impression that he was especially high on Whitner, JP or Willis. In fact, the year that the Bills took McGahee, he seemed to be all over Rasheen Mathis. I get the impression that DJ identifies the positions (along priority lines) that need upgrading. Modrak provides his list of such players that could potentially fill the voids and assigns a grade to each player. Then, round by round, the FO reaches a consensus on who they want to draft.