if you're worried about the 3rd round pick, that's valid considering Buffalo has gotten some value there recently (Terrell Bernard, Dorian Williams, Spencer Brown), but drafting a 3rd round pick who will be as good as Douglas will be the next 3-4 years is going to be tough. Of course thew downside of that is that Douglas' Cap hit (4-6M after an extension) is 4 - 6x higher than a 3rd round draft pick.
Sure thing vs crapshoot is basically what it comes down to