Who said anything about the past?
NE is simply a better team than us due to Brady, at this point. Without Brady, they fall back to the pack.
NYJ are close to us, but I think they have a more stout defense, otherwise they are pretty equal to us.
The Dolphins, I think got better over the offseason, moreso than us, but really, we could switch them and us. We might sweep them, sure, but they also might beat more teams than us.
Like I said in another thread, I think we got a bit better on paper, but the schedule is pretty rough for the whole of the AFC East. I think EJ will progress slowly, but I'm not really sure about his ceiling... so as of now, I see a lot of what we saw last year. But, lets say EJ improves and stays healthy, and our OL improves, and our playcalling improves on offense.... and our new defense doesn't give up big passing plays, we'll be in good shape. The problem is, that's a whole lot of ifs. Hence my somewhat down prediction.
It has nothing to do with "oh, we'll suck because we sucked for 14 years", it has everything to do with the fact that I see big question marks at many positions, and the odds are that some of those question marks will turn out well, and some of them will turn out badly.