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Relative to average weight for that position, Karlos Williams at 241 has to be up there. To have that size at 4.4 speed is a lot of momentum. Or inertia. I almost flunked physics.

Wood preseason: 11 for 37 Dixon in last game: 8 attempts, 0 yards.

Karlos leads Shady in everything but snaps (57 to 125). Karlos--Running Overall +3.8 Shady--Running Overall -1.6 Karlos--Blocking Overall -0.6 Shady--Blocking Overall -1.7 Karlos--Yards Per Attempt 7.8 yds Shady--Yards Per Attempt 3.4 yds Karlos--YAC per Attempt 3.0 yards Shady--YAC per Attempt 1.4 yards Karlos--Longest Gain 41 yards Shady--Longest Gain 18 yards Karlos--TDs--3 Shady--TDs--0

Here's what I said about him on DraftTek the day of the draft: 155 Buffalo Karlos Williams Florida St RBF Lo and behold, we got O'Leary too!

I went back and watched Karlos's TD using screen grabs. Greg Roman's genius is in its unpredictability. In this series of pictures you see the genius. You also see why we're going to be okay without McCoy or Watkins, as this includes some of the B Team against the Fins' good D. Step 1. --Woods and Marqueis Gray block down, and Incognito pulls. Seantrel is already moving to the second level, and Wood is turning his man. pic.twitter.com/K34lxCKF2g Step 2. --EJ has handed off to Karlos, Seantrel makes contact with a LB, Hogan is moving into a block on a DB. pic.twitter.com/LZoxp1C6RK Step 3. --Cordy and Wood have completely turned their man, Karlos still has 2 lanes, which the LB has to respect. Incognito moves toward him. pic.twitter.com/OlT1e0LLiM Step 4: --Gray and Incognito form the lane, Seantrel is 6 yards downfield, Felton is on the ground but Woods has taken him out, and Hogan moves in on the last DB. pic.twitter.com/V5e8Rsexv8 Step 5. --It's Karlos off to the races with many Bills players just watching him turn on the jets...uh, Dolphins. pic.twitter.com/9AbuwDWKJR

Thank you for your feedback. Here is a summary of your responses, both quantitative and qualitative. I will change my positional values accordingly! -Astro QB: mentioned only 2 times in this thread so far. Success of Tyrod changes this priority dramatically RB: 3 (to replace Dixon, yet to provide depth) WR: 2 (needs to be big, Harvin needs to be re-signed) TE: 1 (one could argue we need depth but only one TE is showing up in box score) OT: 14 (mentioned the most) OG: 5 OC: 10 (would see OC as a good late-first-round value) DE mentioned 12 times. DT: 9 (Stefan Charles and Corbin Bryant have helped somewhat) LB: 10 (ability to cover laterally seen as important quality) S: 12 (but I take it nobody wants one in RD1 unless it's pick 31) CB: 5 (goes against what Whaley says about take one every year)

I have to submit Bills' positional needs to DraftTek today. Here's what I'm thinking, but I value your input. TBD is the only place I go for input, BTW. OFFENSE QB=P4. Tyrod's looking downfield. He's 3rd in yards per attempt (9.15 ypa). He's accurate (3rd-most TDs, 4th comp%), efficient (4th in QBR). RB=P9. Karlos is now 3rd as a runner, 4th in yds per attempt, has one TD is each game (first time in Bills history). Needs development as blocker (88th). FB=P9 Felton helps in blocking immensely, saves wear and tear on RB (if McCoy gets healthy). WRF=P9. Feature WRs. Bills have one of 3 youngest WR trios in NFL (Watkins, Woods, Harvin). Need to re-sign Harvin, though. Great depth, too. WRS=P6. Speedy WRs. Harvin, Goodwin, Edelman, Landry types. Harvin was +2.4 Sunday and needs extension. Bills held Landry to -1.4, per PFF. RT=P2; LT=P2; OC=P4. I'd feel better about OL if Cordy could improve run blocking and Henderson could be more consistent. OG=P3. Incognito is #PFF's top-rated OG. John Miller was having best game when he went out with groin injury. He's already an above-avg run blocker. TE=P6. Charles Clay's receiving has him ranked 11th right now, but has shown improvement each game. Now 2nd in broken tackles. Need depth late. DEFENSE DT, DE=P3. This position is the oldest on the club. 5 of the 8 oldest players are DL. Need to maintain strength in line. Positions can be 43 or 34, but versatile. OLB=P4, ILB=P6. Bradham and Brown are great, Lawson, too. Hughes is #1 DE in pass coverage, a consideration in Rex's scheme. Need depth. Tarpley-Johnson-Steward are young guns who may work out. FS=P6, SS=P3. Again, depth behind Aaron Williams and Corey Graham needs a look. I like Rambo, not Meeks or Duke as much. CB=P3. Rex will take a CB earl every year. Darby is rated 10th in pass coverage after 3 games. Avg QBR (Luck, Brady, and Tanny) was 31.8. Gilmore good.

I was on a radio show in Buffalo, Toronto, and Rochester this morning. Here is a summary of what we talked about: MY NOTES FOR THIS MORNING'S RADIO SHOW: 1. FRED JACKSON -Likely the most-lovable player in the running with Jim Kelly and Darryl Talley -You know and love the rags to riches story: 2006 FA out of Coe College -But GM's need to make decisions with their heads and not with their heart. Fred was actually kept on 3 years too long. -Ben Volin @BenVolin 13h13 hours ago Fred Jackson joins Marshawn Lynch in Seattle, per NFL Network. Who knew that the best backfield in the league is the 2009 ‪#‎Bills‬? -2011 was #1 in Pass Blocking Efficiency (100%), 2012: 70th (96%), 2013: 110th (96%), 2014: 135th (92%) -Probably lasted 3 years longer than he should have statistically -YAC per Attempt: 2010: 10th in elusive rating-how hard he is to bring down -Yards after contact per attempt (58.7); 2011: 8th (80); 2012: 32nd (50); 2013: 64th (39); 2014: 68th (43). -6 negatively-rated games last year per PFF, 3.7 ypc, 7 negatively-rated games in 2012; 2011 (injured); 8 negatively-rated games in 2010 -a star in Weeks 1-6 in 2011, injured Week 11-16 -played one game this year, got 10 snaps, did decently, but handwriting has been on the wall for 3 years. -Breakaway Percentage: 2010: 46th (28%); 2011: 12th (45%); 2012: 102nd (3%); 2013: 113th (15%); 2014:127th (9%) -Yards Per Pass Route Run (yards on a per route basis): 2010: 100th (.76 yds); 2011: 27th (1.86 yds); 2012: 42nd (1.36 yds); 2013: 66th (1.39 yds); 2014:37th (1.76 yds); 2015: 171st 2. TYROD AS STARTER: -I thought it would be Cassel early in the game. He was the Alex Smith percentage passer that OL could block for, had great play action fake, and wouldn't make the big mistake we kept seeing from the then-inconsistent EJ. -As OL jelled, I thought it would be EJ, as he needs that extra second to get through his reads. You saw that in the PGH game; it allowed him to see Clay uncovered, and it allowed him to throw downfield to Tobais Palmer. EJ (who had already shown better footwork and arm motion) showed better accuracy, decisiveness, confidence, and consistency in preseason. He was PFF's #1 rated QB overall in preseason, #2 passing (Tyrod was tied with him), #1 in yards per attempt (11.9), #1 in NFL QB Rating, but #16 running (Tyrod was #1). EJ had 4 TD, 0 INT. He's the keeper as Tyrod's backup; Cassel is not needed in this offense with Tyrod's explosive factor. -Tyrod was #2 passing, #1 running, and #6 in completion percentage (EJ=#22). So running ability (making him a nightmare for defensive coordinators---10% of his dropbacks were runs) plus accuracy made him the starter over EJ despite not throwing for any TDs in preseason. It's possible he also makes Fred Jackson, a blocking RB more expendable. 3. WHO STOOD OUT: Deonte Thompson until his injury (was highest Bills WR in Yds/Rec at 24); Dez Lewis started coming on in Game 4—love his height and he can build NFL strength on the PS All 4 QBs were plus-rated (until Game 4 with Simms). Passer ratings above Joe Flacco John Miller surprised everyone, stepped in at RG never looked back, our OGs=Pro Bowl. Even last 2 years, our run average inside the tackles has been strong. Gragg will make it hard to cut him—is leading receiver in preseason Corbin Bryant and Red Bryant as formidable DL depth (however, we have 5 DL on wrong side of 30) 4. WHO DIDN'T STAND OUT: Ronald Darby, but he's young, Rex likes the depth and talent at corner, and I'll have to trust him on this one. Our trainers, slick PR dept (Jackson release, Tyrod same day, then saying McCoy may not be full go for Gm1) Friday, Bills released 17 players and put CB Leodis McKelvin on the Reserve/Non-Football Injury list. They are 3 over the limit, and they have until 4 pm today to be at 53. As to whether they will cut Cassel, he's $4.2 million against the cap, it sounds good. A trade would even be better. That's why I think he hasn't been let go. 5. VULNERABLE FOR FINAL CUTS: Vulnerable as final cuts: Carrington, Urbik or Freeman, Cassel, Steward. Defensive best for #Bills: Tarpley +4.4, Brooks +3.0, Carrington +2.5, Fluellen +2.3, Rambo +1.9, Noel +1.6, R. Johnson +1.4, Duke W. +1.2 Now at 57, Prediction on final 53/practice squad. Joe Bus has already done this, and I'm not too far away. QB (3) Taylor, Manuel is the #2 per Vic Carucci, and Cassel (Simms was released). RB (5) McCoy, Karlos W, Brown, Dixon, Felton as FB. (Cut: Bronson Hill, Cierre Wood). McCoy had a slight hamstring tear and isn't full go yet. TE (4) Clay, Gragg, Gray, Mulligan, (O'Leary on PS; I think he was mothballed) WR (7) Watkins, Woods, Harvin, Easley, Thigpen, Goodwin and Hogan. Andre Davis, Dezmin Lewis and Tobias Palmer were cut, with any or all of them going to the PS. Deonte Thompson is waived/injured. OL (7) Wood, OG's are Incognito, Miller, OT Glenn, Henderson, Swing OT is Kouandjio, OCOG=Urbik, and OCOG=Dalton Freeman (Chandler PS). Richardson has been cut so for now, Freeman sticks. Cut are Darryl Johnson, Will Campbell, and Alex Kupper. DL (8) MWilliams, KWilliams, Hughes, Dareus, CBryant, RBryant, Carrington, Stefan Charles. Fluellen really showed he still has it vs Lions but he's cut. B.J. Larsen was injured and never got it going in camp, IK Enemkpali lining up twice offsides on same series cuts him. LB (5) Bradham, PresBrown, Lawson, Reddick, RJohnson, Tarpley (Steward, Quentin Groves cut) CB (5) Gilmore, Robey, McKelvin, Butler, Darby, Brooks; (McKelvin, reinjured ankle, is designated NFI, out for 6 weeks) (Noel, Cockrell was cut) S (5) Graham, AWilliams, DWilliams, Rambo, Meeks or a waiver signing. Spec: (5) Sanford, Gay, Schmidt, Sanborn, plus Carpenter scared straight. Carpenter has made a little over 90 percent of his field goal attempts in his two years with Buffalo. 6. PRACTICE SQUAD: PS: Simms, Dez Lewis, Andre Davis, BJLarsen, Nick O'Leary, Cierre Wood/Bronson Hill, Noel, and Ladler (who was on last year) 7. BRASH PREDICTIONS: ---Patriots take 3 of the first 4, but lose to us Week 2. They beat us in Foxboro by deflating the football. ---Bucky Brooks has Mario Williams, DE, Buffalo Bills, as DMVP (Lavonte David or JJ Watt): The energetic pass rusher takes down Michael Strahan's vaunted sack record in his first season under Rex Ryan. Most importantly, he leads the Bills back into the playoffs after a 15-year absence. ---Judy Battista has Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles, as OMVP. (Tyrod Taylor, Amari Cooper, Melvin Gordon, Abdullah, Watkins) ---Michael Silver's DROY: Ronald Darby, CB, Buffalo Bills. Playing CB for Rex Ryan has its advantages, especially with a fierce front four. ----Bills will be 2nd in Defense Overall; Seahawks 1, Bills 2, Broncos 3, Chiefs 4, Cowboys 5, Jets 6, Fins 7. ----Bills will again take a CB in the first three rounds of the 2016 draft. Don't believe Rex. ----Incognito is going to the Pro Bowl with the healthy members of the Bills' DL and Watkins/Harvin/Clay. ----McCoy will be useful but not vital, as it'll be RB by Committee with Karlos, Boobie, and Bryce ----Dolphins and Bills go to the playoffs; NEP stays home. ----You'll see more read-option because of Tyrod at QB (Fake handoff to RB, pitch to Percy Harvin). 8. SCHEDULE REVIEW AND RECORD PREDICTION: ---Bills 10-6 ---Dolphins 10-6 (we win 1 of 2, and we get the tiebreaker. Playing Fins in Miami in Week 3 is advantage, Week 9=fun) ---NEP 8-8 (Pats win Game 11 at home on Nov 11 but we win Game 2) ---NYJ 5-11 (we win 2—We don't play Jersey Jets until Nov 12 Week 10 NFL Network game in NJ; then last game of season at home)

Disagree. Read This: http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-1/Romans-offense-requires-tight-ends-in-numbers/7c761f20-10d7-4d32-be0f-548cdd15653f Adding him to the keepers. He IS a lock. I cut Goodwin. Apologies in advance, but I know he'll be injured by this post, and won't catch it either.

I hope you're right by Game 1. I think our only hope is that Cassell and EJ are underwhelming enough in last 2 preseasons for the Bills staff to listen to Rex. No worries. I will worry enough about the 2016 draft for everyone else. It's my job as Bills Draft Droid. Yeah, I just noticed I have O'Leary making the 53 and being on the PS. I think they are not going to keep O'Leary if he goes to PS, so they keep 5 TEs. Thigpen is outplaying Goodwin on ST, and is more versatile (emergency RB, for example).

Our problem is that the most consistent was Cassel, the most accurate was Cassel, the oldest is Cassel; the best QBR is Manuel, the most TDs is Manuel, the most dangerous is Tyrod, and the one Rex and fans like is Tyrod. Yes, the Goodwin pass was right on the money. The only bad thing is the Turk rolls through on my wife's birthday. Trying to get one of them to change dates. My guess as to what happens: QB- (3) Taylor starts Game 1 vs Colts, also keep Manuel, Cassel (Simms PS) RB/FB (5) McCoy, Jackson, Felton, Dixon, Karlos W. (Brown traded/cut) Unless Karlos goes to NFI or PUP TE: (5) Clay, Gragg, Gray, Mulligan, OLeary WR (6) Watkins, Woods, Harvin, Deonte Thompson, Easley, Thigpen (Andre Davis, Dez Lewis PS; Hogan Traded/Cut) LBs (6) Bradham, Brown, Lawson, Randell Johnson, Tony Steward (ILB/Mike), IK Enemkpali (Edge), ( Ladler PS) CB/S (10) Gilmore, Robey, Darby, Brooks, Butler, A. Williams, D. Williams, Graham, Rambo (Meeks or Cockrell Cut) O Line (7) Wood, Incognito, Miller, Henderson, Kouandjio, Urbik, Glenn. (Chandler PS, Richardson Cut) D Line (8) M. Williams, Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, Dareus, Alex Carrington, Red Bryant, Corbin Bryant, Stefan Charles (Reed PS) Specialists: (3) Sanborn, Carpenter, Schmidt McKelvin PUP List PS: Cierre Wood RB Gaines LB Noel CB Andrew Hudson DE Ladler S Justin Hamilton DT Simms QB Andre Davis WR Dez Lewis WR O'Leary TE Cuts: Bronson Hill RB, Ricky Seale RB, Lankster CB, Groves LB, Buchanan DE, Kupper OG/OC, Campbell OG, Richardson OG, BJ Larsen DE, Fluellen DT, Tobais Palmer WR, Willis Austin WR, M Goodwin WR

It's a cloudy day, about 70 degrees, with a light breeze. I have my clipboard for notes and Tim Horton's Ice Capp to attract yellowjackets. Both worked. I'm there 20 minutes early, and Garrison Sanborn is playing catch with an assistant coach, so he was the Early Bird. In order, the other players come up the walk from the locker/team rooms adjacent to the field house: Jordan Gay, Wesley Miller (new DB), Ross Cockrell, Matt Cassel, Robert Woods, Andre Fluellen, and Carpenter.. Dex Lewis comes out and stretches all alone on the turf field. Deonte Thompson is next, stopping at the fence to sign autographs for a youngster. Tobais Palmer was with him, but he stood nervously back from the fence (cut the guy). Andre Davis is next, and he has his picture taken with another family, then just with the mother (practice squad behavior). Fred Jackson appears and likewise signs for some kids. None of the players use the JUGS machine today; they all walk slowly right to the grass field. The DL and OL guys turn and move to the third field perpendicular to the turf and grass fields as they always do. You can tell it's the end of camp. It's wearing on the players, who have been away too long from loved ones and familiar beds. Some informal kick return work is happening on the field before the horn signaling that it's 10:00. I see FredEx, Tobais Palmer, Percy Harvin and Cierre Wood taking kicks. O'Leary looks a little lost out there, and practice hasn't started yet. I wish I could say he's a lock for the 53, but he's not. The play of Gragg, Marqueis Gray, and Mulligan backing up Clay has likely put O'Leary on the PS unless they keep 5 TEs. That's opinion. Marqueis Gray is over on the sidelines in a three-point stance with the TE coach, moving into blocking. He does this maybe 5 times, receiving specific 1:1 tips. This is the biggest difference I see from practices of the past. It's individualized, targeted remedial teaching on the fine points. They likely saw something on film with Gray and were working on it with reps. The horn sounds, signaling 10:00. Gilmore and Carrington, who are late, break into an earnest run for their respective gathering places, the music comes on, and stretching begins. Those not in the stretching are Hogan, Harvin, Watkins, and McCoy, but they are doing strength/core work on the sidelines. I'm sitting with Mike, Varsity coach at Bloomfield, formerly of HF-L. He was helpful at spotting, and between plays tells me an interesting story about Ty Fenti, St. John Fisher's recent QB, who broke all records there. He's 6'3" 220 a Jim Kelly type. He just tried out for CFL but blew out his labrum in the 3rd preseason game. Expect Russ Brandon, a SJF graduate, to at least know about this kid. Return drills are next. Marqise Goodwin is not the kick returner today. Thigpen and newcomer Austin Willis are, while Goodwin is one of the gunners. Punt return drills follow, with Schmidt kicking from his 15 to the 32 for a 53-yard boot. His next punt is 55, and then 63 yards. On the next punt, IK "Jawbreaker" Enemkapali is called offsides, then IK almost gets to Schmidt on the ensuing punt. It might have ruffled Schmidt, as the kick only goes 33 yards. Rex is wearing an orange Bills shirt as are all the coaches. You'll likely see these on Saturday night. Some passes against air was the next thing I looked at. Tobais "I Didn't Sign Autographs" Palmer makes a one-handed catch on the sidelines, causing the fans to applaud for the first time, but likely too late to save him from The Turk. QBs Cassel and Tyrod are throwing to TE's Cassel is first, and puts the ball in the right place 100% of the time (11 of 11 by my count). He's likely your starter. Tyrod is second, making good passes on 7 of 10 (70%). He's your Number Two. Simultaneously, on the other end of the field, my count on EJ throwing to the WRs was 6 of 7 (85%), throwing too low on the one he missed. He's your 3rd QB. Simms was 100% (6 of 6) against air. In the first 11 on 11, there were very few passes thrown, but Cassel threw a lame duck which was almost intercepted. Tyrod was 2 for 3 with one too-high pass that needed a taller WR. EJ had 1 of 1, a nice 30-yarder on target. Simms was 3 of 4, one of the receptions being a 40 yard ball and the miss being way too high. The 7 on 7 wasn't noteworthy other than Cassel was worse. He was 60%, throwing one wide of the mark and one behind Dez Lewis, who threw his arms up like, "Where was that to?" In the 11 on 11, some things got clear for me. Seantrel and Kujo took reps at LT, with Kujo handling a forceful bullrush by Enemkapali (who's making this team). Cierre Wood looks the best of the 3 new RBs, then it's a wash between BHill and Seale, maybe Seale looks marginally better. Simms had a believable screen pass to Seale, and Cierre Wood took a nice line on a sweep left. Tyrod looked better than any of the QBs in this 11 on 11, throwing to Gragg for a huge gain as Gragg gets separation often (that's why he may make the 53). EJ was in after Tyrod, and throws a rope to O'Leary, right on the money. O'Leary is the most intense TE and is the throwback type football player. Will he make the 53? Whom do you throw out? I liked Marqueis Gray's athleticism, physicality, and effort--something I was told about Percy Harvin and never saw. I liked Marqueis Gray's athleticism, physicality, and effort--something I was told about Percy Harvin and never saw. Deonte Thompson catches a nice EJ ball for 20 and is hit immediately by #20, Graham. Pencil Graham in at S; he's not going anywhere, and neither is Deonte, I bet. In the next 7 on 7, Tyrod was picture perfect, with 7 of 7 completions (100%), with a nice Mulligan catch (for a blocker, he's making the team on his reliability as a pass catcher), Deonte Thompson on a beautiful crossing route, a great swing pass to Jerome Felton, and a perfect deep ball to Goodwin (which he dropped. Again. 'Bye, #88). EJ was 2 of 4 (50%), once too far ahead of his receiver so that the DB had a play on the ball, and once too high, causing Dez Lewis's tip that would have been an INT. Completions were to Gray and a crossing pattern to Goodwin. Even though I'm a big Tyrod fan, I think we're starting the year with Cassel under center. I hope I'm wrong. I want to thank 3rdand12 for his generous gift, which he gave on behalf of all of you. It was a gift card to Good Smoke BBQ in East Rochester, which both of us HIGHLY recommend if you come to camp next year. Thank You, Eric!

Blokestradamus speaks the truth. They did stack tyhe box and will do it again. His 4.5 average against AP-ranked teams is pedestrian, but the opposition knew how to win when the options were thin.

We do have Shady (who has a lot of treadwear) and Karlos. That's decent lightning and thunder. Also a popular 34 1/2 year old who's a great blocker, but is injured. a fumbler who averaged 3.5 ypc last year, but is injured. and a Boobie, but is injured. who is a great guy but is Karlos. Who is injured.

Yep, there is a lot of Heisman talk for Ezekiel Elliott. He is at the top of our list. You just wonder, though, if you put some of the others on Ohio State's team, with their OL and weaponry, does that player get the Heisman hype?

Running Back Evaluation (I'm posting this here because it's the wrong time of year for it, but in the light of the Bills' recent RB woes, it merits a look. Moderators, please feel free to move it after we discuss it.) In contrast to some recent years' drafts, the 2016 draft will feature some strong RBs coming from pro-style sets. It's not that we're devaluing running backs from spread offenses; we just prefer the skillsets of quite a number of RBs from NFL-style offenses. Storm Barrs-Woods' 7.1 yards per carry against AP-ranked teams for a spread offense is not as impressive to evaluators as James Connor's 6.9 for Pittsburgh. Second, any NFL GM will tell you they look closely at the RB's blocking ability. This skill is receiving a closer look from our analysts this year. Fred Jackson, age 34 1/2, has been around the Bills for extra years due to his superb blocking ability. Paul James of Rutgers is a very good blocker (and unfortunately will need to be this year). A third aspect in evaluating a college RB's talent as it translates to the NFL is his performance against the more-talented teams. Yards per carry against AP-ranked teams should carry more weight. Our analysts took this into account last year, and will continue to do so in 2016. James Conner of Pittsburgh averaged 6.9 yards a carry against AP teams last year, and our #1 RB, Ezekiel Elliott averaged a whopping 8.7 when Ohio State played AP-ranked teams. Fourth, We've been asked if character plays into a college player's positional ranking on DraftTek. The answer is, we look at the situation on a case-by-case basis. Poor decisions that are repeated should affect ranking more than a first-time offense. A felony charge should weigh more than a misdemeanor, A game suspension should be taken with a grain of salt compared to being suspended from a team. Leon Allen's intoxication charges might get him suspended for Week 1, but he's on the Senior Bowl Watch List. Marshaun Coprich, RB at Illinois State, was suspended with a felony distribution charge (10 to 30 grams of marijuana). He's been taken off our rankings entirely. Fifth, Another factor in weighing RB performance is the offensive line blocking for him. When watching film, watch to see if the highlight-reel runs were actually a result of the O-Line creating space. Is there tape of the line creating a sliver of a gap and the RB hitting the hole immediately, keeping his pad level low, and making something out of nothing? That player is ranked higher in our book. Johnathan Gray will put up bigger numbers because of an improved OL at Texas, but will his skills change as a result? This year, Jordan Howard will play behind the OL that sprang Tevin Coleman, our third-ranked RB of 2015. Is Darius Jackson's 4.8 rushing average more impressive to you because his OL, racked with injuries, was ranked last in their league in almost every category? Paul James of Rutgers will have a tougher year with only one returning starter on his O-Line. Still another aspect of RB evaluation that's not in the RB's control is depth chart. Has the player been the "bell cow" for three years? Or has he recently inherited the starting role because a previously-successful RB moved on to the NFL? Certainly you'd like to see a body of work from your drafted running back, but would you ignore a single year's performance? Aaron Green of TCU will profit from BJ Catalon leaving for the NFL, even though he wasn't drafted. Versatility is huge. Can the RB play on special teams? Can he catch smoothly out of the backfield? Could he play some H-back to create mismatches? Devon Johnson of Marshall was a TE for two years before switching to RB, played some H-back last year, has a 20+ ypc receiving average, a 8.58 ypc rushing average, played two years effectively on special teams, and has size and quick enough feet to block. Freedom from injury is overvalued, but a history of injury drops a player in positional evaluation. Brandon Bourbon had an injury-plagued career at Kansas, then tore his ACL in 2014. He's transferred to Washburn, but the injury history follows him despite the productive year he may have there. Rutgers' Paul James broke his fibula in 2013, then had an ACL tear in 2014; he's a tremendous runner when healthy, but he'll be available on Day 3 or UDFA due to his injury history and aforementioned inexperienced line. Look here for DraftTek's ranked list of RBs. Don't be surprised if a team near you picks one. --Astro

No thank you. This is for discussion, pure and simple.

I had the delight of a lifetime to have both my boys, from Austin and Boise, and my 4 grandkids come to camp with me today. While they are both college sports fans (Hook Em Horns and Boise State Broncos), they wanted to come and watch a real NFL practice. This may have to do! The crowd was amazingly full for a Monday after a scrimmage beat-down. Fred Jackson has no bounce in his step heading in, and Aaron Williams looks determined as he does exercise on the sidelines. The new RB is also on the sidelines. I wonder if he's still getting back into football shape. BJ Larsen continues his convalescence on ropes and the aero-bikes. Colton Schmidt is booming one punt after another, one bouncing and coming to a rest 80 yards from where he kicked it. When Danny Crossman finally has Schmidt kick in formation, he booms one from the line of scrimmage at the 10 to the other 30--a 70-yarder. Clay is practicing catching the football one-handed along the sidelines, occasionally tipping one to Aaron Williams. Williams catches 2 out of 3. This is where Greg Roman is right now. He has his work cut out for him with this batch, as other than Clay and O'Leary (who are locks), Manhertz is tall but raw, Gragg is a decent downfield threat but is not the blocker you want, Mulligan is a good blocker but needs work on receiving (he does very well this practice), Burton is bigger than Clay but is far less consistent or explosive, etc. Sammy is playing catch on the sidelines as well. He does pull up at the end of one play, nothing serious, but it makes me wonder if Sammy is bound for oft-hurt land. WR's spend the positionals catching the ball over their shoulder. Billy Buffalo is on the elliptical. Against air, the numbers for each QB are, in order of appearance: Cassel---14 for 16 EJ---------9 for 9 Simms---6 for 7 Tyrod----10 for 10 My younger grandson says, "Number 8 is good." That's Simms. I don't think he'll be cut; I think he's either the practice squad QB or the #3 QB. Cassel is the first up for the team drills. He throws a nice ball to Sammy, hands off, and (after Goodwin clears out the flat with a go route, Clay reels in a nice catch. Dareus ragdolls Cassel on the next play. EJ is next. He changes the play at the LOS and throws 20 yards for Percy Harvin, who has not run his route full-go, and the ball falls incomplete 3 yards ahead of Percy. Strike One on Harvin. EJ jands off to Bryce Brown who takes it around the end of the defense left side for 15 yds., and then EJ hands off to Karlos for a tough 5 yards. Tyrod is in next. After Manhertz drops one 15-yarder, Mulligan catches his first of 3 on the day. The next pass goes complete to Clay, then Burton and Mulligan drop one each. Manhertz comes back with a very nice catch on a slant to make up for the earlier drop, and Tyrod throws it to an open Easley who drops it. Clay drops one as well. Deonte Thompson will make this squad. I don't know how, but he has WR talent. Practice Squad likely, but he has talent. However, not in the 53 yet. He sometimes seemed unaware of the motion call (3x Tyrod put his foot back to get him to start the motion). We watched the TE's working against edge rushers. It was one of the best drills of the day. I am seeing regular, daily examples of prescriptive teaching based on what the 11 on 11's and scrimmages are telling this coaching staff. Never saw this much of that in all my years at Fisher. ---Manny Lawson was unblockable. ---Clay dropped Tarpley. ---Randell Johnson used too many moves and was dropped once, but had 2 would-be sacks on the drill. He's talent. ---Ty Powell held his own, as did Gragg. ---Karlos Williams got applause by stoning Randell Johnson. In 11 on 11's: ---Corey Graham steps in front of his WR to get a PBU, and later picks off a pass to Easley. He's our best safety right now. Aaron's on the sidelines waving ropes in full sweats and hoodie. ---Karlos shows his talent as a receiver out of the backfield. Imagine a 230-pound 4.3 speed RB in the flat. You're a CB. You're dead meat. Also making 5-6 yards between the tackles. Guard play is great. ---Cassel shows a very awkward rollout and pass on the fly. He's better than Orton, IMO, but Orton's better when on the move. Likely a wash. ---Simms has a very nice pass threading the needle between two defenders. ---Seantrel was the RT and they had pretty good pass blocking today. ---Michael Buchanan is offsides on one play, drawn off by Tyrod. ---Sweeting is out of his league. HE dropped coverage too soon on one play, and Cassel saw it for the TD. You see the savvy from Cassel. ---Harvin was slow to get up on one play, and Sammy pulled up on one play. ---Harvin also dove and caught one for a TD from Cassel.He also had a nice catch at the end of practice from Cassel. He was hit by Gilmore on one play, then burns him on the next play. ---Manhertz drops another one here in 11 on 11. You see the potential, but he's a PS player at best. Love his height. ---Tyrod had a nice pass to HArvin, and a beauty to Mulligan, but a miss of Sammy. ---Simms passed to O'Leary for a TD. O'LEary's in, and you have to have an Irish TE anyway. ---Caleb Holley, a promising WR, was carted off today. Looked to us like inside right knee. Hope it's not his MCL. ---Goodwin walked off the field under his own power. ---Mulligan's footwork is very good on blocks. ---Some nice fights, but Woods needs to keep his helmet on is he fights. ---Bryce Brown had a nice carry and held onto the ball. Film at 11. ---Hogan drew a PI penalty on Brooks. Tyrod threw short and Brooks was seen as interfering with Hogan's comeback to the ball. So against defense, the QB numbers are Cassel---16 for 18, 3 potential TDs in a row and 3 more later. EJ----8 for 12, 1 too long, 2 too high. Trying too hard. Waiting too long, not making reads fast enough. At one point likely sacked on 4 successive plays. Tyrod---11 for 16, one too late, 2 too high, 1 too far, 1 short, 1 just missed, 1 take off and run. Simms---4 for 6, one too high, 2 potential TD Gay finished practice with 7 successive FGs, 4 from the 15, 1 from the 17, 1 from the 21, and 1 from the 26. We need Carpenter back for the season, not preseason.

I wasn't there (grandkids in town), so this is great. I know I'll be at next Monday's practice, but I don't see my grandkids often enough (they're in TX and ID), and they're all here.

This is a very accurate assessment. Safe choice=Cassel, Big plays=Tyrod The Guard play (Incognito AND Miller) is extremely good. The left side of the OL is very, very good. RT (both Seantrel and Kujo) is average. Tyrod is showing that he can be a pocket passer. He scrambled maybe three times today, and that's enough to keep the box stacked and Sammy-Woods-Harvin-Clay happy. Not a significant change. I wanted to see it, but am not.

EJ looks comfortable. All three seem confident, in charge of the huddle, etc. The report was delayed as we had the exterminator over for tea. Okay, I laughed out loud! He's not that bad. He'll get mop-up duty against the 3's of Carolina, I'll bet, and we'll anoint him starter in post game comments.

It's 72 degrees here at St. John Fisher, with cirrus clouds. First Take, with Skip Bayless and Stephen A Peterson (who thinks Kyle Orton is our QB; I'm sure he's heard about it on Twitter by now). EJ and Tyrod are playing catch. Matt Cassel was talking to QB coach on the way in. I got a salute from Karlos Williams on his way in. I've been a big fan since his Seminole days, and I ranked him 4th among all RBs in the draft as early as October of last year on the DraftTek positional rankings (Gurley, Gordon, Coleman were 1-2-3). I see BJ Larsen, John Conner, and Chris Manhertz on the sidelines. Manhertz will later catch his first pass as an NFLer; he's the Canisius grad who's 6-6. He'll make the practice squad, I think. It's a sparse crowd when they are doing calisthenics, but it fills to over 90% full by the first real action. Right after cal, they do KR, with Goodwin-Thigpen your best bets, with Darby and Harvin back there. Karlos Williams makes major points with Danny Crossman by recovering a "muffed" kick. I think it was a setup to see what the KR team would do, and Karlos fell on it in textbook style. Most of my evaluation today centers on (duh) the QBs. They did some read-option work today, draws, handoffs, "climbing the ladder" into the pocket, sideline throws, accuracy. The best throw in the first session was Tyrod, who was with the 2's. EJ had the most applause in the second session but Cassel had the best accuracy in the 3rd session. Manuel was most accurate in the 4th session but Tyrod had the most potential TDs. Tyrod had the most accurate passes in the 5th and 6th sessions. In 7 on 7 EJ came up big on accuracy but all had potential big plays (Cassel to Mulligan, EJ to Deonte Thompson, and Tyrod to FredEx. Simms did not see Hogan on his series who was wide open for the TD, opting to go for the short pass. In the next session, Tyrod and Simms were more accurate than EJ or Cassel. Tyrod and Cassel were most accurate in the final two sessions. Shaking it out statistically for the Big Three on a percentage completed basis (vs air, in 7 on 7 and 11 on 11), I got: Matt Cassel---91% ----43 completions, 1 too far or high, 2 behind or low, 1 flat-out miss, 6 big plays (20+ yds or TD) including a sweet threader to KArlos and one off a helmet to Dez. Tyrod Taylor---83%---33 completions, 5 too far or high, 1 behind or low, 1 flat-out miss, 11 big plays (20+ yds or TD) EJ Manuel---78%---38 completions, 4 too far or high, 2 behind or low, 5 flat-out miss, 2 big plays (20+ yds or TD), 1 fumble, 1 INT Comments: 1. Take the above with a grain of salt. They were installing a read-option which inflates statistics. 2. Mulligan, blocking TE, caught a few today. He was with the 1's at one point. 3. Cyril had time in there. 4. FredEx looks like he's full speed and uses his smarts setting up blocks whereas Karlos is 1-cut then punish the tackler. 5. Carrington knocked down an EJ pass. Hasn't lost that ability. 6. John Miller pulls quickly, reaching full speed rapidly and delivering hits on LBs or Safeties at 2nd level. 7. Incognito had the slobberknocker award for a block springing FredEx. 8. Clay's first catch as a Bill in practice was a likely TD. 9. Cassel seems to be the only one noticeably going through progressions. 10. John Conner FB is still walking gingerly. 11. AJ Tarpley broke up a sure TD to gragg thrown by Tyrod, which would have been 12 big plays for Tyrod. 12. Gay was hitting field goals today left and right. Hmmmm.

Great question. Up to today, I thought Cassel would be QBing first game this season. But this is a question Greg Roman is surely thinking about: "Which QB could best succeed in this offense?" First, read this article about Greg Roman's offense: http://billsmafia.com/2015/02/25/breaking-buffalo-bills-oc-greg-romans-power-run-game/ Roman needs a QB that can: ---physically wear down opponents ---never turn the ball over ---orchestrate the variety of looks and motion at the line of scrimmage ---create a "10th gap" with his legs (a la Kaepernick) ---create misdirection with bootlegs ---exhaust the D-Line and OLBs with roll-outs and keepers ---operate the play action fake with mastery ---have a very good downfield throw ---very occasionally operate the pistol and read-option It's becoming clear that Tyrod is mastering the playbook and its nuances, all four QBs have the footwork, and none have incredible accuracy, so what else does Tyrod provide? He provides Greg Roman with all of those others, except possibly physically wearing down opponents with sheer size.

Day 3 of Training Camp: Sunday. Another beautiful sunny day here at St. John Fisher, with less humidity and a slight breeze, making us almost forget about 17” of snow in my driveway 6 months ago. I acquainted myself with a Bills fan next to me, Paul Rinehardt, who I find out is also a retired teacher. Thanks to him, we were able to cover both sides of the field in Greg Roman's 2-spot drills. So much is happening you need an extra pair of eyes. Session 1: Punt practice for most of the players. The gunners were Rod Sweeting, Justin Brown, Deonte Thompson, and Mario Butler. In the second kickoff, the gunners were Dez Lewis, Tobais Palmer, Andre Davis, and Andrew Hudson. Mario Butler got a talking-to, so we'll give him the special teams dunce cap of the day. Returners were Goodwin, Thigpen, and Sammy Watkins, who muffed one. Session 2: Positional drills. The OL is Glenn, Incognito, Wood, Miller, and Kujo. The WRs work on "man-on" drills, where a ball is thrown to them with another WR defending. I like this as a teacher because yesterday we diagnosed that the WRs were having some difficulty battling for catches in traffic, and this was the prescriptive teaching. The WRs went on to work on stop and go routes, and Harvin is amazing at looking like he is going to stop and hook in, then just taking off. I was worried we wouldn't have a Stevie Johnson any more. Harvin is a faster Stevie on his routes. TEs worked on blocking, RBs worked on hitting specific gaps. The QBs worked on accuracy, so I tracked them. Tyrod won this session. ---Cassel had two stars for great passes, had 5 accurate passes, 2 thrown too far and 1 thrown too near. ---EJ had one star for a great pass, had 5 accurate passes, one too far and one too near. ---Tyrod had 3 great passes, 6 accurate passes, and one too near. ---Simms had 2 great passes, 4 accurate passes, and three too near. Next we looked at QB timing. Simms was in a different drill.Tyrod won this session. ---Cassel threw 4 passes too late, 2 too early, and 2 on time. ---EJ threw 5 passes too late, 0 too early, and 6 on time. However, 4 throws were behind the WR. ---Tyrod threw 2 passes too late, 0 too early, and 7 on time. One throw was a missed pass. Session 3: More positional work. The second-string OL looked like LT (Didn't get), OGs rotating in (William Campbell, Alex Kupper), C Kraig Urbik, RG Darryl Johnson, RT Tyson Chandler. Tyrod and Cassel were working with the 1's vs air, with Hogan, Woods, Charles Clay, and Boobie Dixon at first. As expected Cassel was more accurate than Simms, with Cassel throwing 4 perfect passes to Simms' 1, and Cassel throwing one lousy pass to Simms' 2. Boobie Dixon had the most trouble receiving, and Bryce Brown is better this year. Mulligan dropped a pass, and Clay looks great as a receiver. Tyrod can lead receivers and tight ends well. WR's were clearly working on downfield blocking, again something that needed work clearly getting remediated. Session 4: 11 on 11 work. Cassel is with the 1's with Tyrod. We again looked at accuracy on both fields at the same time. Tyrod won this session. ---Simms had 2 applause-producing throws, with the TD to Easley, 1 bad. ---Cassel had 1 applause-producing throw to Deonte, 2 bad throws. ---Tyrod had 3 applause-producing throws, best to Woods, 2 bad. ---EJ had 1 applause-producing throw to Gragg, 3 bad. Observations: ---There were lots of early jumps called (Henderson, Wynn, Buchanan). ---There were 3 would-be sacks at the very least. ---There were at least 3 tackles for loss. ---Cassel demonstrated nice pocket presence, once climbing the ladder up in the pocket to complete the pass under duress. ---Tyrod had a great fake handoff on one play, and a great fake toss and go. ---EJ scored another TD on the same play Tyrod threw to the underneath man. ---Deonte Thompson lined up on the wrong side twice today (after lining up wrong once yesterday). On the other hand, he caught a TD. Session 5: Kick Returns Tobais Palmer got the work, but Gay kicked it into the end zone on 6 successive plays. And he's a bubble player. Karlos Williams was talked to. Meanwhile, QBs are throwing over a 6 1/2 foot fence. Tyrod did not have trouble passing the ball accurately. Later, EJ passed the ball into a double-high garbage can from the 15, then turned and hit the rim on the other side of the field. I was impressed. Session 6: 11 on 11 again You have the same OL and the DBs were Gilmore-Darby, AWilliams-Graham. Highlights were: ---Rambo blitzing up the middle unabated against Cassel and the 2's. ---There were more than this one safety blitz. They were coming from everywhere. This will get our line better--or paranoid. We're good on D. ---Hamilton, a DT I don't expect to make the team, barged right in on the QB , forcing the whole team to move back 5-8 yards. Fun to see. ---Manuel dropped a hiked ball ---Gilmore sniffed out a QB keeper, instantly released from his man and had the QB in the backfield. TFL. ---Cockrell got burned by Watkins with one move, causing an instant 3 yard cushion. ---Goodwin drops yet another roster-securing bomb. ---Cassel's throw to Easley for 15 yards was a thing of beauty, causing Sweeting to get an earful from Donnie Henderson. I'll return for Wednesday's practice... Dean Kindig, DraftTek Bills Analyst On Twitter: @TCBills_Astro Email: Bills@Drafttek.com

My overall impression is that Cassel won the day. EJ second, Simms-Tyrod third. Keep in mind that tomorrow they play with pads on, and you won't see them against a real defense until Carolina preseason game.