Ronin

A fair point, but I've made it clear that I've been talking about Oliver's last two seasons. Sorry if I didin't make that completely clear. I don't care what he did as a rookie three years ago if he hasn't been able to repeat it, particularly against far lesser competition. Of course the argument is that they used him differently, but to be frank, upon watching that game I'm not seeing any major differences except in situational bases. Either way, I acknowledge that you think that Mack and Oliver are on par with one another accounting for their positions. Noted. I'll dissent on that one.

What's not living in reality are the narratives. BTW, everyone said the same thing about my take on Zay Jones for instance. I stand by it today. You know my take on Allen. I stand by that too. Doesn't sound as if you want to follow-up on the video thing, so I won't spend the time then. If you change your mind let me know. BTW, watch highlight videos of Harrison, who played against a wealth of players that made it to the NFL. Talk about being a beast. Yet, ... Here's the list of linemen drafted in Phillips' Draft that Phillips played against. Oliver doesn't have a list. Granted, they're not great, but they were draftable players. Phillips plays like a terror against some of them. Go watch it yourself.

Well I am being nit-picky. Any scouting staff that's good should be just as nit-picky. It's served me tremendously well in the past, being so "nit-picky." I'd call it attentiveness to details and specifics. Otherwise you just nailed my point entirely! Nice! But think about what you also just admitted. He hasn't proven anything, literally nothing, against any talent (player-wise or team wise) that he'll face in the NFL. What he "didn't do" shouldn't be positively projected in assuming that he'll do things that he never did. Might happen, that's about the best we can say. So IF he does that in the NFL, it'll be a first. Based upon what you just said there's not arguing that. Here's the thing, the tougher the competition got for him, the less he did. I just pointed out in the video review how a Sr. Center that didn't even have a distant shot at getting drafted gave Oliver a game vs. Texas Tech. Did Stawarz shut Oliver down? Hardlly, but based upon the narrative, a small-school C with no profile even by Rivals (do you have any idea about what that means?) should be utterly dominated by a DT that's been touted as among the best if not the best in the entire Draft. Yet, that did not happen. Again, his projection to the NFL is predicated entirely on suppositions. There's nothing concrete that testifies to his making such a transition. You say I'm too attentive to detail, which I actually consider to be a compliment, but I'd turn that around and say that the vast majority are ignoring reality entirely in insisting that Oliver's some kind of beast when he didn't even excel as such against average collegiate OL-men. Time will tell. Again, not sure why so many people relentlessly pursue me as if I'm attacking them personally. That to me is far more problematic. And Scott wonders why gameday threads are out of hand. LOL

I probably didn't see them. I've got a slew of people on ignore. People that flame and seem to take everything personally. I don't have the time or patience for it. Either way, what are your thoughts on what I posted about Mack contrasted with Oliver? I don't care what the emotional masses say in the midst of the forum equivalent of a mob-mentality, I'm far more interested in what a handful of thoughtful people that actually take facts onsideration and do not build arguments around prior exceptions. I mean if that's the case, why draft a QB in round 1. Just draft one in round 6 and cite Brady as the reason why, eh. It makes as much sense. As I just said, even draft profilers were honest enough to at least mention if not express concerns over Oliver's level of competition. But when I do it I don't know what I'm talking about. Go figure. Expected tho. I mean to dismiss my arguments out-of-hand, as is being done, is to essentially state that you don't think that level of competition is relevant, when it's hugely relevant. On the flip side, throwing out exceptions in former players, is equivalent to suggesting that a 6th-round drafted QB will become a franchise QB because Brady did it. Yes, exceptions happen, but they usually don't, which is why they're exceptions. Ergo, it's not wise to count on exceptions occurring, to whatever extent one is counting on them. Either way, don't you think that it's problematic that so many seem to be taking issue personally with my angle on this? Why the personal affront? I haven't attacked anyone. Strange dynamics albeit normal. What's interesting is that I said the exact same things publicly about players like Jones, Spiller, Watkins, Lawson, Ragland, Manuel, and others. I analyze the contexts in which they excelled in college, didn't see a translation to the NFL, and ended up being spot on despite the same exact dynamics going on then as I'm experiencing now. I'm fully used to it. LOL I've said the same about Allen and I stand by it. I've only seen one national level analyst get it. Here's the link and here's what he said; https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ranking-the-nfls-top-triplets-from-32-1-for-the-2019-season/ Allen had a productive rookie season ... on the ground. But he's a quarterback, and he needs to be more productive through the air. That's exactly right. Unobjective people completely ignore the fact that as a passer Allen was among the few worst and riskiest (according to PFF) QBs in the league last season. He had the worst rating of any QB in the league last season besides Rosen, whom he was only a point better than. He had the fewest red zone TDs of any starting QB. He had the worst completion % of any starter too. He had the second-worst Adjusted Yards-per-Attempt only marginally ahead of Rosen, but he was ranked 8th in Yards-per-Completion, which should be highly concerning to anyone understanding averages. He had the second-worst INT% and the third worst TD%. Second-to-last in Net YPA and Adj. NYPA marginally ahead of only Rosen. I'm highly concerned. This notion that he's a shoe-in for franchise status is absurd. Would love for it to happen, but I'm not sold on A, his coaching, and B, the ability for a QB with essentially terminal issues in reading defenses and checking down to begin doing that well in the NFL. I mean why is it so difficult to comprehend that those kinds of leaps simply don't happen, even rarely much less routinely. But I guess because he's our QB it's different. That's not a reason why it will or why he'll defy heavy odds against him. I'm also concerned with our GM and HC. We've signed absolutely no big names in three years, while giving our biggest contract to Lotulolei who's consuming a whole lot of cap space as a result. He's not even close to being any better than a very average player on our team. These guys seem to just love low-risk one and two-year contracts. There's a reason why that's how it has unfolded as such, and a big part of it is because if those players were in such hot demand then they wouldn't be accepting two-year contracts. Anyway, let me know what you think about what I said about Mack. I'm not sure what there is to say other than that it was a good point given that Oliver has no game like that nor one even close. Oliver was the only small-school DT drafted with a history.

You point out four, I added context to them. You ignored it. Not sure what to say if you think that blowing up a nothing C is noteworthy, particularly when a few plays later that same absolutely nothing Senior Center stands Oliver straight up and shuts him down. I'm also not sure it's worth arguing over. This isn't about your take or mine, it's about contrasting reality with the narrative(s) that exist. If you read here all we hear is about how Oliver consistently blows up douible and even gives triple-teams trouble. In this game he's facing an absolutely nothing OL with no NFL prospects whatsoever, and his play is as inconsistent as can possibly be and did neither and even couldn't even routinely beat his man in one-on-ones, which yes, I would expect in that level of a game. Against linemen that he'll never even see as such in the NFL I'd expect sheer and utter dominance. in well over 50% of plays, particularly in 1-on-1's. If you want to start rationalizing, feel free. I was seriously trying to engage you on this Your choice. I don't take this stuff personally like seemingly everyone else. Honestly. But just curious, since several of his teammates in this game played just as if not more impressively on D, why don't you rave about them in the NFL, I mean if that's the standard and all? The standard sure isn't his play against a bunch of 1, 2, or 3 win teams like Rice, Tulsa, and East Carolina where he racked up a lot of his stats and nearly all of his "impressive" ones. Even the draft profilers had enough honesty to at minimum question his level of competition. I'll tell you what I'll do, when I have time, perhaps this weekend, I'll document every snap in these two games and post the results. I'll ping you, we can discuss further then if you're up for it. If not, that's fine too.

Yes, please give me some time. I do have things to do. See my post to him. Good points on Mack, but honestly, Mack so dominated that it's almost a ridiculous comparison. He averaged over 18 TFLs and 7 sacks per season from the MLB position. Where you're off is that Mack logged 9 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks, and 1 INT for a 45-yard TD return against Ohio State, the Big-Ten runner-up and national champion contender that season. Oliver has never even sniffed a game like that. Mack did this against the Big-Ten runner up and was the defensive leader on both teams including Joey Bosa on OSU. He dominated that game defensively singlehandedly. To my other points, OSU fielded two OL-men in the following draft in rounds 2 and 5. So yes and no. We can make these comparisons to exceptions all day long. The questions are about steady-state performance, not merely performance against competition the likes of which players will never face in the NFL. Wouldn't you agree? See the prior post. Do you think so? Look, think what you want. Don't let me persuade you, but if you're going to simply ignore stuff like that, and more particularly the entire lack of it on Oliver's dossier, you do so at your own risk as it were. Half the first round is going to bust or underproduce in some way, nothing new there. Why is Oliver exempt from the possibility?

Thanks 27, appreciate it. This should be fun. Not that we'll agree on everything but at least we can look at the details, eh. Here's my take on those plays, but first, keep in mind as the backdrop of this discussion that none of the the Gs or C on that team has anything even close to a reasonable chance of making an NFL team, at all, much less as starters. 0:10 second play of the game, and he pushes the center back into the QB's lap - Agreed. Now, let's examine who that player is. He's Paul Stawarz, an unranked recruit at rivals coming out of HS. He's a JUCO transfer that just graduated and wasn't even so much as picked up as an UFA. The only other colleges that offered him were Murray State, Eastern Illinois, and Coastal Carolina. (File under men-against-boys) Keep watching however, he holds his own against Oliver in other clips. 0:20 he's in the backfield almost too quickly...any LB worth his salt would've had a TFL if they filled the gap - Here's what I see while watching in slo-mo (25%) speed. The entire OL blocks right, correct? Plain to see. It looks to me as if the guard, Akamnonu, plays inside assuming that the T, who completely whiffs on everything in support of this, was going to pick-up Oliver. Otherwise, Akamnonu really wasn't positioned for a direct block, so chalk it up to whatever reason you want, but it was hardly an NFL move. The greater point here is that Oliver completely loses track of the play and allows the RB, undrafted Demarcus Felton, to runs off Oliver's right shoulder right past him. If 22 isn't there to make the play behind Oliver, Felton has a sizeable gain. If he plays like that here he'll never even approach average much less greatness. 1:25 completely blows up the play for a 4-yard loss - Again, looks to me as if undrafted Jerard Carter does the exact same thing right next to Oliver. In fact, Carter had a very comparable game in that one. Your point is valid, but again, finding the same four or five plays that I saw, against that level of competition, both team and individual, hardly justifies the narrative. I also couldn't help but notice that 7 plays that you didn't comment on had elapsed in between. On the very next play Oliver is completely taken out of the play by a sophomore lineman. On the play after that Oliver gets absolutely no pentration whatsoever against the two aforementioned non-NFL lineman. Yes, double team, but again, another double team against nothing linemen where Oliver did nothing. On the play just before this one he gets tied up by Stawarz one-on-one. 1:32 again, he's in the QB's face in less than 3 second - So were two other linemen. He did it in a single matchup, again, against Akamnonu. I mean, I get it, but Akamnonu? Would you say the same about the other lineman's prospects in the NFL as such? Given the narrative, I'm expecting Oliver to dominate games like that from top-to-bottom, which is hardly the case. You yourself pointed out four plays while skipping at least 8 others where Oliver looks OK, but again, against what level of competition here? It's a man-against-boys environment for him, I'd expect more as such. Those plays against those players are absolutely no indication as to his prowess in the NFL. In that game as a whole, again, against that level of non-NFL-hopeful competition, he logged a mere 1 TFL, no sacks on 59 attempts, and was the 6th leading tackler on Houston as measured either by solos or totals. Keep going tho, watch the entire game like I did and point out every play. Let's continue this.

Uhhh, none, never had an account at BBMB, wherever that is. BB.com? I only have one here and haven't anywhere else in years, meaning well over a decade. You mistake me for somone that mindlessly enjoys wasting his time. This has been my only user name here. Wouldn't mind changing it tho. Not sure that can be done. Can't help myself do what precisely? Comment intelligently on the team? Suggest that a DE that's had an average sack ranking of 59th in sacks over the past four years in his prime isn't elite? Oh the horror. LOL And yeah, I have difficulty doing so. I also have difficulty pre-annointing rookies to the levels of greatness, particularly given our track-record of drafting in recent years. As I've asked, send me the time signatures. I'm happy to look again. I've watched both videos no fewer than three times apiece and portions more than that. Talk is cheap. Time sigs. Then we can discuss objectively which I'm more than happy to do. It's interesting tho, you didn't comment on the notion that Oliver hasn't gone up against any Gs or Cs that were drafted in the NFL in any of his three seasons, including those from the only power-5 schools that he played. Anyway, I'll happily await the time sigs so that we can discuss further and compare and contrast with the existing narrative.

I didn't say that he was one of the top DEs in the game, you just put those words in my mouth. He was about the best that was available and he's quite good. 22 starters all playing at his level and we truly have a playoff competitive team. I guess that depends upon your standard of elite otherwise. Pro Football Focus doesn't have him rated as elite. They have him rated as good overall, above-average in run D, high-quality in pass rush, and average in coverage. I would agree with that assessment. My standard is that if in your prime years your average sack total is a mere 5.5 sacks, then sure, he's elite I suppose. But consider ... Hughes ranked tied for 38th in sacks last season with 11 other players. In '17 he ranked tied with 19 other players, one of which was Lawson, at 84th in sacks. In '16 he ranked tied with 6 other players for 47th in sacks. In '15 he ranked tied with 18 other players tied for 67th in sacks. Those were his prime years. So if I understand you correctly, you think that's elite, right? I think that helps explain any difference in our takes on Hughes though. My standard of elite is somewhat higher. I'd strongly suggest consistently in the top-10 at minimum. But hey, maybe I'm too harsh, eh. Bills were wise to sign him as they have nothing else at DE that's going to keep us competitive. IMO we should go after McCoy too at DT.

Do you think that's a wise assumption? Do you see my take on the secondary in there? How about Edmunds who I've stated elsewhere I expect to become one of the top MLBs in the league? Otherwise, what, specifically do you disagree with? You think that Gore will play better at 37 than he has in the past? Or that Lotulolei will turn into some sort of stud DT this season? How 'bout Lorax, you apparently think he'll improve at 36, or do you agree with me? Shady at 31? Apparently you think that with Kroft out that Knox is an instant upgrade over last season too then? Is that a realistic take? Or are you expecting blocking TE Lee Smith, Croom, who was with us last season and did nothing but warrant criticism from everyone, or 7th-round pick Sweeney, who by the way has caught 10 more TD passes than Knox, to be the upgrade there? Just curiuos. Not much to discuss otherwise. So what's your point then?

That's the narrative. We'll find out soon. Certainly hope I'm wrong. Either way, what I saw from Phillips, clearly against tougher competition, man-on-man as well, I was more impressed. 3-technique, or not, against Arizona and Texas Tech this past season, even in man-on-man I found him to be unimpressive. Watch those videos of him. Give me the time signature for the plays that you think he played like you're saying, in man-to-man, nothing more. Role doesn't matter in those situations, and he was horrible on double teams, which he'll see frequently, 3-technique (which is the role as of now) or otherwise. Phillips is bigger and he had trouble.

BTW, here is PFF's analysis of our OL at this point; https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-examining-the-buffalo-bills-offensive-line-ahead-of-the-2019-nfl-season I've excerpted and highlighted some of the data on what at present appear to be our five starters. C MITCH MORSE Morse signed a four-year, $44.5 million contract with over $20 million of that being guaranteed this offseason after spending the first four seasons with the Kansas City Chiefs. Morse ranked 12th among centers last season with a 69.5 overall grade and his best season so far as a pro came back in 2016 when he earned a 74.6 overall grade across 1,075 offensive snaps. Out of the 42 centers who’ve seen at least 1,000 offensive snaps over the past three seasons, Morse ranks 15th with a 72.9 overall grade across that stretch, and his 99.0 pass-blocking efficiency rating is tied with Travis Frederick for second-best. [Biggest upgrade but they failed to mention that he's missed 14 of 32 games the past two seasons due to injuries. The biggest upgrade.] G QUINTON SPAIN Spain signed a one-year, $2.05 million contract with Buffalo this offseason after spending his previous four seasons with the Tennessee Titans. Spain ranked 35th out of 77 qualified guards last season with a 62.3 overall grade and his best season thus far came back in 2016 when he earned an 84.2 overall grade across 821 offensive snaps. The four-year veteran has spent 99.4% of his career snaps at left guard. Over the past three seasons, Spain ranks 23rd out of 86 guards who saw at least 1,000 offensive snaps over that stretch with a 72.9 overall grade, and his 97.3 pass-blocking efficiency ranks 39th. [Rated around average in pass-blocking] T TY NSEKHE Nsekhe signed a two-year contract worth up to $13 million with Buffalo this offseason after spending the past four seasons with the Washington Redskins. Nsekhe ranked 43rd among qualified tackles in 2018 with a 67.8 overall grade, and he was one of just 11 tackles to have both a pass-blocking and run-blocking grade north of 70.0. Over the past three seasons, Nsekhe has played ample amounts of right tackle (132 snaps), left guard (203 snaps) and left tackle (721 snaps). During that stretch, there were 48 players who logged at least 600 snaps from the left tackle position, and among that group, Nsekhe ranked 24th with a 75.2 overall grade while his 96.4 pass-blocking efficiency also ranked 24th. [Rated an average pass blocker as well] T DION DAWKINS Dawkins is entering his third season with the Bills after Buffalo drafted him in the second round back in 2017. Dawkins ranked 39th out of 80 qualified tackles with a 69.4 overall grade last season, which was undoubtedly a step down from his rookie season when he ranked eighth among tackles with an 80.4 overall grade. Looking at his career in full, Dawkins ranks 22nd out of 69 tackles who’ve seen at least 1,000 offensive snaps over the past two seasons with a 76.3 overall grade, and he ranks within the top 26 in both pass-blocking grade (77.9) and run-blocking grade (69.7). Dawkins has spent all but one offensive snap at left tackle so far as a pro, and he’s earned an overall grade of at least 70.0 in 13 different games throughout his two-year career. [No change here. Question is which Dawkins shows up, the rookie Dawkins or the second-year Dawkins.] T/G CODY FORD Ford could end up winning a spot at either a tackle or guard position during training camp after the Bills selected him in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Ford saw 898 snaps at right tackle during his collegiate career at Oklahoma to go with 441 snaps at left guard (along with 24 at right guard), and he was a stalwart in pass protection at the right tackle spot last season, ranking fifth among 113 Power-5 tackles who saw at least 300 snaps in pass protection with a 99.0 pass-blocking efficiency. Ford will have to prove in training camp that his success in pass protection wasn’t just a consequence of playing in the Big 12 and that he can succeed as a run-blocker at the professional level (71.5 run-blocking grade during his career at Oklahoma). [Again, Risner ranked ahead of him in pass protection and has played Center. Seems as if he would have been a better pick.] Either way, Spain and Nsecke appear to be pretty average pass-blockers. Dawkins, who knows. Ford, who knows. Morse, a significant upgrade, but if he goes down, then a significant downgrade with Bodine and we're pretty much back to where we were last season pending Ford. Both Morse and Spain had their best seasons in 2016, three seasons ago, so their averages reflect that, meaning that in the past two seasons their ratings are lower than their averages.

I'm not sure I see an upgrade at DT. Lotulolei as a depth player is no loss and was a horrible signing in hindsight, but losing Kyle will be big and replacing him with Phillips a/o an unproven Oliver isn't a given. Lotulolei didn't get the job done and he's an expensive backup. Also not sure that the RB situation is improved. A small-school diminutive RB that put up gawdy numbers against competition that he won't see in the NFL, ala Zay Jones, coupled with Shady who didn't play well last season and the oldest RB in the league also is no given. WRs are an upgrade but no one's going to confuse the group with being above-average, at least no objective person. Among the entire WR collective they've posted a single 1,000 yard season, barely. None of our WRs are prolific TD scorers or even close. Again, not sure how much of an upgrade that is. The OL was upgraded but by how much is the question. Again, no objective person is going to mistake that OL for one that's much more than marginally above average. Everyone talks about Nsecke like he's great, but he came from a horrible offense and in five seasons has only 16 starts, only 5 of which were last season. We'll likely have four new OL-men that have never played together including one rookie and a Center known for injuries the past two seasons with nothing of note behind him on the roster. I think it would have been much wiser to have drafted Risner instead of Ford, who graded better in pass protection, comparably at minimum, but more importantly has experience playing C. What, Bodine if Morse goes down? That's hardly encouraging. At TE with Kroft having sustained a serious injury we're reliant upon a rookie that has never scored a TD. Upgrade? Lorax, who's starting, is a year older and well beyond his prime at 36. His position alone is not an upgrade as a result. Also, one has to ask, since Beane/McD are just now getting around to rebuilding the OL, why haven't questions arisen as to why that has taken three seasons to address even if it is better, which according to PFF's ratings of the players is only marginally better and primarily only in run blocking. In the prior two drafts they've only drafted two OL-men, Teller late in round 5, who appears to be going nowhere already, and Dawkins late in round 2. In order for the current roster to be an upgrade, backups like Nsecke have to play above-average as a starter when he's only served as a backup for five seasons to date; aged players like Gore and Lorax have to not show continued signs of age; Shady has to prove that last year was not age-related as he enters his post-prime; Singletary, who played against second-rate competition in college, will have to play above-average in the NFL when against the only power-5 competition he faced in college he had 44 carries for 162 yards for a 3.7 ypc avg. and 2 TDs in four games, and to do so will have to overcome his diminutive status; (watching his video, I don't see NFL speed, when he looks fast it's only against players that have little to no chance of ever playing in the NFL. His best game was Oklahoma this season which had a very mediocre rushing D and sent no one to the NFL from their front-7.) He was also a completely different player when playing teams that featured OL-men that got drafted. Prolific vs. lackluster. Which will be the case in the NFL? Knox will have to start scoring TDs, something he hasn't done; Ford will have to play well immediately. Even then, Dawkins & Nsecke at the Ts? Upgrade? Maybe, but if so not by much. Phillips and/or Oliver will have to make up for the loss of Kyle, not sure I see that happening; and lastly, Allen will have to put up at least average NFL passing numbers including at least a 2-1 TD/INT ratio, a 90+ rating up from 67, and limit total TOs. I mean it's fun to think about this time of year but it still has to come together. Things I wouldn't bet on: Morse making it thru an entire season, meaning that as of now Bodine will be playing some. He's missed 14 of 32 games the past two seasons. That alone could derail any OL progress. Oliver (small school), Ford, Singletary (small school), and Knox all playing well. I'd be content if two of those players turned out to be above-average. Allen making the enormous leap from bottom-dwelling as a passer to above-average given his significant issues with reading Ds and checking down along with other mental issues. Tough if not impossible stuff to coach. Offensive linemen that have typically played like average or slightly better than average on teams with poor offenses doing much more than that here, particularly together. As they say, doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, ... Simply because they've changed uniforms doesn't change them as players contrary to popular opinions otherwise.

IMO everyone is expecting way too much from Oliver. He had 3 sacks last season, two against East Carolina and one against Navy. Navy had QBs that got sacked once every 7 dropbacks in an offense that's an anachronism of the '70s Sooners wishbone offense and something that's simply not seen in the NFL. Both teams were 3-10 and sucked royally on offense. Neither of those teams had any offensive linemen that will ever even sniff the NFL. It's concerning. The narrative on Oliver was a runaway narrative. He didn't face a single G or C in college that will end up in the NFL as a starter. Again, I find that to be highly concerning. Either way, if he couldn't produce sacks against stiffs at G & C in the AAC then how is he going to do it in the NFL. Just not seeing it. Phillips is notably better than Oliver by my analysis and assessment.

It was a good re-signing but also a no-brainer. I mean can you imagine what the front-7 would have looked like w/o Hughes? Starting, what, Murphy & Yarbrough? 2nd-string Lawson & a 7th-round rookie Johnston? You can't go into the season with lofty expectations like that. I guess I just don't know what took 'em so long.

Well stated, some good points! Sacks are definitely sexier which is at least part of the reason why pass-rushing DEs (and OLBs in a 3-4) get paid so much. Sacks are also indirectly if not directly an additional indicator as to pass-pressure otherwise. As you seem to imply in your Kuechly statement, elite MLBs are rare. The Willis, Urlacher, Lewis types don't come around often. Those around today include Kuechly, Moseley, Kendricks and maybe another one or two like Wagner. Keep in mind too that while all teams change up their Ds and don't constantly play a 4-3 or 3-4, they do have a base D and only those with a base 4-3 would have need for a true MLB, so while pass-rushing DEs have room for two on every team, obviously there's less than one on average on a team. Having said that, I'd take a Kuechly or Moseley over a great DE first. A void or below-average talent at MLB opens the defensive middle up against both run & pass, which circumvents pressure from the outsides, eh. But again, it shouldn't be an either/or proposition. A good team builder should quite easily be able to do both and much more. Everyone's falling all over themself praising our FO but the reality is what it is at say DE, and when your best DE is entering his back-9 on a two-year extension, with no replacement on the roster, well, that speaks for itself. Unlike you I don't think that what we saw for Moseley will be unusual for his caliber of MLB, thing is that there just aren't a lot of them. You can count on or about one hand how many there are. There are a whole lot more DEs to "get paid" than MLBs by a country mile. In fact, I'd say that one really good MLB of that caliber pops up every two or three years or so on average whereas every season there are at least one or two good pass-rushing DEs that end up in the draft. The salaries are out of whack because every team needs two regardless of system, that's 64 contrasted with what, 12-15 MLBs, if that. It also takes notably longer for a MLB to develop due to the added complexities of the position, which is no small matter. As I've always maintained however, you don't need elite players to create a championship team. All you need is a whole team full of 6-8 (1-to-10 scale) players and you're good. Our problem right now is that we're chock full of 3-6's. As to Edmunds, keep in mind there that he was the youngest player in the entire league last season. One can only expect so much given that. Give the kid a year or two to show up. I think we'll be astonished, perhaps starting as soon as this season. There's no way that a player like Stanford keeps pace with Edmunds and it's not fair to compare a 6-year NFL vet in the middle of his prime with the youngest player in the league, you know that, just sayin'. Edmunds was raw last season. He's one of the very few draft picks by this admin that I've liked. In fact I said in that draft that they should have taken him at 12th and kept our other four day 1/2 picks, rebuilt the lines, and then waited for this year to draft a QB like Lock, who I think will end up being better than Allen and will be a notably better NFL type passer, more towards Marino since he's not very mobile. We turned 4 day 1/2 picks and the first pick in the 3rd into two players, one of whom we could have had with our first pick. That translates to four day1/2 picks for Allen. If Allen flops then that's the end of Beane & McD. They're the same passing types but Lock doesn't have Allen's issues in reading Ds and checking down. But I digress... Just trying to defend Edmunds as I think Edmunds will end up being "one of those" MLBs. Time will tell.

There are 10 pages because lots of people seem to have to comment on everything for as mundane as many of their comments are. That's the nature of forums, particularly in the offseason. Hughes is a very good DE. He's just not elite. But to your point, shouldn't Beane have already lined up his successor, or at least a "bookend" already? They haven't drafted a decent edge-rusher on their watch. For as important as that position is I find it to be problematic in building a winning team much less a playoff competitive team. Relying on interior linemen, particularly undersized ones like Oliver, doesn't seem to be the ticket to me. Phillips is bigger than Oliver and played far better competition in college and put up comparable numbers against that level of competition, yet he didn't shine like that last season. In fact, after watching recently, Phillips video looks far better than Olivers against power-5 competition. As I've pointed out, he essentially got skunked against the only power-5 competition that he faced this season. His play in those two games is absolutely nothing like his draft profile reads. Beane and our scouting staff should taken a half-hour to watch those before drafting him IMO. He didn't face one G or C that got drafted in the past two drafts. Watch those two videos for yourself, they're only about 10 minutes apiece. Anyway, Phillips faced a number of Gs and Cs that got drafted and played well against them. And what if Hughes goes down? Then what? We're looking at what, Murphy and Yarbrough starting? With whom, Lawson and 7th-round rookie Johnston as the backups? That seem wise to you? Our defense may have been ranked 2nd in yards last season, but at least some of that had to do with the fact that we gave up the worst starting field position in the league. Otherwise, we were ranked 30th in Red Zone D and 18th in scoring D. To me that's highly concerning. If Oliver's not all that or if Phillips doesn't make a massive leap, I don't see things ending well.

Don't you think that a good MLB is more critical? I mean if that middle is "wide-open" it really wreaks havoc with your D. Point well taken however, you need a solid outside pass-rush as well either way. Not sure we have that, but why not? Poor planning appears to be the reason. That and a reliance on a player like Trent Murphy. I don't share your (and everyone's) optimism on Oliver. He played horrifically weak competition and essentially got skunked against the only two power-5 teams that he played against. He was even first defensively on his own team, not even close. A highlight reel of games in two seasons against teams none of which won more than 3 games and the likes of Rice, Tulsa, and East Carolina is problematic. He faced no OL-men that got drafted in '18 or '19. Phillips did and his production against a level of competition, many of the Gs and Cs he played against got drafted, was comparable. Yet, he was no force last season and he's bigger. I think that fans will be disappointed. I think it was a horrible draft pick despite the wealth of narrative which frankly, I simply don't understand after watching Oliver's every-snap vids against Texas Tech and Arizona this past season.

I hear ya, but implicit in my comment was simply that it would be similar to doing a "chant" for say any player that doesn't regularly produce. It loses a little something if things don't happen regularly enough. I could see it for Kyle because he was such a disruptive force that sacks simply didn't epitomize his play enough, but when he got them it was like icing on the cake and would have been sort of a recognition for the three plays prior in that game where he single-handedly blew up the play. So too, Johnston was a role player, sort of like Tasker, but obviously in a different way. When Dallas back then really needed a yard, Moose would come in and essentially get it. Same thing with Bruce, or Tasker with a TD or big coverage, but with Hughes, as I see it, when, as was the case last season, you sack Darnold, Bortles, Mariotta, Cousins, and Tannehill as your sack production in wins, and against teams that really weren't much better than you and in several cases worse, it loses a little bit. A lot of that simply has to do with the status of the team now. Today fans go to the games hoping to win. Back then we went to the games expecting to win, and almost always did at home. In the playoffs, from '88 - '95 we didn't lose a home playoff game. BTW, I posted that just thinking to myself now. Either way, I didn't mean it critically, I thought you were seriously wondering why it didn't happen.

What? Dude, forget it.

Probably because Bruce was a game-changing player on a regular basis and logged sacks far more regularly. To be fair, Hughes hasn't had a double-digit sack season in five years. He's averaged a mere 5.5 sacks/season over the past four years, his prime. From the same age range, to Hughes' 22 sacks, Bruce logged 48.5 sacks.

That would be a good question.

Same Gil Brandt that says we're headed to the playoffs.

Letting him walk w/o any other above-average edge rushers would have looked pretty silly, don't you think. Beane hasn't gone after a single edge-rusher in his time here thru three seasons. What, Murphy? It was a no-brainer, if not pure necessity, to re-sign Hughes. Without Hughes they go into the season with whom, Murphy and Yarbrough at the DE positions. That would not have been good, and with what, Lawson and 7th-rounder Darryl Johnson from NC A&T as their immediate backups? So I agree, there aren't two sides to it. Had to get done if for no other reason than poor planning otherwise.

I'd definitely be interested in those videos. Maybe I'll help you compile them. Let me know. Here's a great analysis of his INTs in his final season at Wyoming. What's interesting about his INTs that season is that they were all against the best teams that he faced. None of the teams that he had 0 INTs against fielded any defensive players in either the 2017 or 2018 drafts. The two that were drafted were a K in the 7th and a WR. The only two defenders drafted in '17 or '18 on the teams that he pitched the INTs against were Vander Esch and Vallejo. The things that you cite were well-known prior to his draft. Here's the issue in addressing the obvious, how do you coach a QB to check down and how do you coach a QB to read coverage at this stage of the game so to speak. It's a rhetorical question but a very serious one. Those are not issues that are easily addressed. Allen did neither well in college, doing them well now here will be a tall order. The thing that you said that resonates with me the most was this; - most of his interceptions were in my opinion was him trying to do too much. Live by the sword die by the sword. I completely agree. He plays like he's superman, which is a losing long-term proposition for a number of reasons. To start, he's on a team with 10 others players on the field at any given time all with the same goals in mind. If they aren't utilized effectively then it's a lost cause out-of-the-gate. It's "fun and all" that he ran around like a madman, but lost on just about everyone is that as a pure passer he was far from average much less even good. In fact, his week 17 stats, in the type of game that won't be on the schedule this season despite how easy the schedule is, massively skewed his total stats, which were bottom-dwelling. Prior to week 17 Allen and Rosen were neck-and-neck in vying for worst passer in the NFL. Priot to week 17 he had 7 TDs and 11 INTs. Had he finished the season w/o that last game the criticism would have been far more existent. For some perspective, Rosen finished with 11 TDs and 14 INTs in 13 starts to Allen's 11. As averages Rosen averaged .85 TDs/game and 1 INT/game in his 13 starts. Prior to that Miami game Allen averaged .64 TDs/game and 1 INT/game in his starts. Even on the season including that final Miami game Allen averaged .91 TDs/game and 1.09 INTs/game in all of his starts. Rosen was better in the red zone too throwing 7 RZ TDs contrasted with Allen's 4, only 2 of which were prior to week 17. The million-dollar question is can Allen play more like he did in week 17, amidst a whole lot of positive emotion and a perfect-storm of circumstance and environment, at home too we should add, or more like he did the rest of the season. If the former then he's destined for super-stardom. If the latter, well, not so much as he's a lot more likely to follow Rosen's path. I've only seen one national level analyst that seems to get it. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ranking-the-nfls-top-triplets-from-32-1-for-the-2019-season/ Allen had a productive rookie season ... on the ground. But he's a quarterback, and he needs to be more productive through the air. How much more productive? That's a relative question, but I'd strongly suggest that he needs to at absolute minimum beat both Taylor's and Fitzpatrick's best seasons with the Bills, which includes minimizing TOs. Fitzpatrick's best was over 60% for 3,400 yards, 24 TDs to 16 INTs. Taylor's best was 63.7% for over 3,000 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs. Average last season in the NFL was about 66%, 3,700 yards, 22 TDs, 11 INTs. If he can't do that this season then questions will appropriately begin to arise. Again tho, you've seen and understand his issues. How to correct those is another issue. QBs with residual defense-reading and checkdown issues from college A, typically aren't drafted in the 1st-round, and B, typically also don't excel in the NFL. The ones that excel did it well in college, and while they may have struggled initially, and some not, in the NFL, but at the end of the day they managed to translate it to the NFL. So while it shouldn't be written off, it's a much bigger issue than most care to admit. Obviously we're all hoping that it happens, but far too many people, fans and media alike, are assuming that it's a shoe-in when the opposite is the case, namely, that Allen will all but be charting unfamiliar territory if he manages to do so. Think about it, he's being expected to go from bottom-dwelling as a passer to average or better this season. That's an enormous expectation and quite frankly, I'm not sure a reasonable one.