No matter how much 'extensive research' Beane did, there was still an element of luck involved. The Browns took Mayfield first overall and, whether or not it was a smokescreen, there were some reports floating at the time that they might be interested in making Allen their pick. Then the boneheaded Neanderthal, Dave Gettleman, inexplicably decided that it was somehow prudent to take "eventual Hall of Fame RB" Saquon Barkley over a QB at 2 and the Jest decided to take Sam Darnold at 3. At that point two QBs were already off the board and a 3rd (Allen?) should have been. Despite all of his research and wheeling and dealing, Beane could only manage to get to the 7th spot. He's on record as saying he wanted to get up to 5th where the Broncos were but the Broncos told him they would only move out of 5 if "their guy" was gone. Once the Browns took Denzel Ward at 4, Denver's guy was still there (Bradley Chubb) and they weren't moving. Had he been gone and they decided to swap with the Bills, it would have cost Beane another #1. I think he's a good GM overall but he also got a little lucky. As with any deal that works out, there is always luck involved.