billsfan89

Miami has also made a lot of these big time splashes in free agency seemingly every 3-5 years and none of these big time off-seasons seem to result in anything more than a random wildcard birth here or there. I can't see this latest free agency spree resulting in long term success. Miami has about 55 million in space in 2021 (60 million if they cut Jordan Howard) so while they have some cap flexibility and have an extra draft capital I can't see them having another big spree in 2021 to fix the remaining holes on the roster. So overall I think the Dolphins hopes are going to have to stem from Tua being the real deal in 2021 and beyond as I don't see them having the longer term cap flexibility to add that much more to the roster via free agency.

I feel like you are being purposefully dense. Kelce after the 2015 season was not the caliber of TE he is now. He was only coming off of two 800+ yard seasons with 5 TD's each season. Very good numbers but not elite Gronk or Graham like numbers (the two top TE's of that time.) So you keep brining up Kelce like he was the player he is now when he signed that deal. Had Kelce singed that deal after 2016 or 2017 when he eclipsed 1000 yards and the conversation for best TE in the league was between him and Gronk he would have likely gotten 7.5% of the cap or close. Also I pointed out that the last TE to negotiate a deal while being an elite TE was Graham who signed a deal after the 2014 season. By the time Kittle signs a new deal it will be 2021 which will be 7 years without the market being tested. Kelce and Ertz didn't test the market because they weren't top end guys when they signed extensions. I agree that yes if the cap increase goes down due to fans in the stands (I can't see the raw cap number going down from the 2020 level as most of the NFL's revenue stems from TV rights certainly will at least stay flat which amounts to a huge decrease) then that number will fluctuate. But I don't see how in any rational universe if Kittle stays healthy and puts in a third top tier season how he doesn't get a contract around 7.5% of the cap. Which would put him at least well over 15 million if the cap stays the same or similar. You are caught up on the Kelce numbers like he isn't massively underpaid and had he not been locked into a long term deal he wouldn't be paid 30-40% more at minimum. Kelce's contract is completely irrelevant to Kittle's because Kelce is drastically underpaid and did not negotiate his deal as an elite TE.

Fitz is Fitz and I think that they have no interest in playing Tua year one. For one I think that they want to make sure he is healthy and I think they want to get him a year in the system before forcing him out there. But while I feel the Fins have improved their defense and have decent offensive pieces having a substandard QB is going to keep them from getting above the 7-8 win range.

Kittle lines up to block and receive out of the backfield. Because he can block like a good full back him being in the backfield doesn't tip him off as a decoy. It just adds to the versatility of him as a player. In January of 2016 Kelce was coming off of back to back 800 yard seasons. Two years later he would have been coming off of an increase in yards (back to back 1000 yard seasons) and TD's while being more established. He easily would have gotten a lot more. For one the cap increased in those years and two he would have gone from top 5-10 to top 2 production at the position. If Kelce got a similar deal to what Gronk got (7.5% as a percentage of cap) in 2012 adjusted for the 2018 salary cap he would be paid at an average of 13.25 million. If Kittle got 7.5% of the projected 2021 salary cap he would be paid 16.25 million. I think given the increased positional rarity he could command 8% of the cap (Which would put him above 17 million) given the right market. I don't think there has ever been a positional depression like there has been at TE. A top elite talent hasn't been in a position to negotiate a contract at the position since the Salary cap was over 30% lower in 2015 (Jimmy Graham.) The two elite talents at their position that are on their second contracts signed deals in the 2016 off-season before their production ballooned. Kittle would be the first elite TE to sign a contract in 7 years by the time his deal is up. That's going to cause a huge increase in his market. I can't think of another position in the league that has had such a wonky market where the top 3 players at the position on their second contracts are locked into deals signed just before their big outbreak. I think you are ignoring the circumstances of the top contracts at the position. The top TE's in the league have had locked in deals since 2016 when they weren't producing at elite levels. Gronk set the standard at 7.5% of cap for a TE and I think Kittle if he has another really good season would easily command that which would put him at 16+ million aav and he could if he gets a team to give him a bit more get to the 17-18 million range.

I think a big piece missing in this conversation is that there hasn't been a big TE to hit the market in many years. Gronk got a massive 6 year contract extension in 2012 season and was never at a point to get a second contract of significant length. Jimmy Graham signed his big deal back in 2014. Travis Kelce signed a 5 year extension after the 2015 season when he had logged back to back 800 yard seasons, Zach Ertz signed a similar contract in January 2016 when his career high in yards was 800. Both have blossomed into elite TE’s. There just hasn’t been an elite TE to hit the market in a long time. Hooper and Henry are good top 10 TE’s but not special dynamic players at the position and they still got over 10 million. I think Kittle if he can cement his status with one more very good season resets a very warped market. If a Jimmy Graham or Gronk or Kelce type TE hit the market in the past 2-3 seasons we would be easily talking Kittle having to go above a 14-15 million dollar top contract instead of 10 million. The Niners threw the ball 19 times in the divisional round and 8 times in the NFC title game. I think that might have deflated Kittle's stats although in the SB when the Niners threw 31 times he only had 4 receptions for 36 yards. Both guys are elite TE's. One being underpaid doesn't deflate the others value nor would one being a smidge better.

In 2019 Kittle broke 1000 yards on an offense that was nursing leads late and running heavy (and Jimmy G is not an elite QB at this point.) If he has another similar season in 2020 he will along with his elite blocking skills and versatility to line up in the backfield or anywhere on the field have established 3 seasons worth of elite TE play before hitting the market at age 27. I could easily see another team ponying up around 18 million aav to get an elite dynamic piece that is rare. I would disagree that Samuel and their receivers are going to take away targets in any significant manner. Sanders is no longer there and while they did draft a WR in round 1 I think it will take at least a year or two for Alyuk to take away significant targets. I also think that if anything having Samuel and other better receiving options will only help Kittle pop bigger numbers as the attention is less on him. Travis Kelce signed his contract that pays him about 9-10 million a season before the 2016 season. When he signed that deal he was coming off of back to back 800+ yard seasons with 5 TD’s in each season. Even before Mahomes in 2018 he had out performed that deal and if he hit the open market today would see a greater than 50% raise from his current salary. Ask yourself this question if 2 years ago Kelce hit the open market what would he have commanded? I would say at least 15 million. Kelce’s deal being deflated doesn’t diminish market value. I think Kittle at this point is worth about 15 million aav easily. If he has another good season and is healthy he should command closer to 20 than 15 ( I would say 18). There aren’t many TE’s that can anchor a passing attack as a number one option and block at an elite level on the market. Hooper got 10+ million and he isn’t a very good blocker and is far from a TE able to anchor a passing attack.

It's not an apples to apples choice though, my only point in brining up the Thomas contract is that the market is set at 20 million aav for a top pass catcher. The 49ers don't have the choice between Thomas and Kittle they have the choice to either let Kittle walk or pay him against the market. Do you think that if Kittle has another 1000 yard season and is healthy that some team wouldn't pony up at least 17-18 million aav for him? Elite TE's are the hardest to find and one hitting the market in his prime is going to command a huge deal.

Michael Thomas's deal was 5 years 100 million exactly 20 million on the dot. I think Kittle could with another very good season could easily command 18 million aav. TE's that can block at an elite, be versatile in other components of the game, and haul in 1000 plus yards a season in the receiving game are rare and hard to find. Kittle is as valuable to the 49ers offense as Thomas is to the Saints offense.

Because if Kittle hits the open market in 2021 after posting another strong season some other team will easily offer an elite TE close to 20 million per-year. Travis Kelce being underpaid and there not being another elite TE on the market doesn't deflate Kittle's market. Kittle is a much better TE than Hooper who got 10 million aav. So if I am Lynch I offer about 15 million as my offer as a means to get Kittle under his market value. I don't offer 18+ million because that's his best range, but 15ish million offers him security and you a discount.

Kittle didn't have prime Tom Brady throwing to him like Gronk did. Jimmy G was hurt in 2018 when he put up monster numbers and even in 2019 I wouldn't exactly call Jimmy G a world beater and Kittle put up an elite season. So the TD numbers are a bit circumstantial and not relevant to his ability. Toss in that like Gronk Kittle is dam good blocker and I think Kittle has solidified himself as an elite TE these past two seasons (and he wasn't too shabby for a rookie.) I think if Kittle wants a deal bordering on 20 million per-season with a hefty guarantee I think he has to put up another very good to great season and fully leverage his status. But the 49ers should be willing to offer a deal above 15 million if Kittle doesn't want to take the injury risk. So while I get Lynch waiting if Kittle won't accept a deal closer to 15 million than 20 million but Lynch should be willing to offer a max extension around the 15 million aav range. Let Kittle decide his level of risk but certainly show they are willing to take care of him he just won't get all that he wants if he takes the sure thing early.

I agree it also has helped that the insane value the Bills got in 2019 and 2020 have come at positions of need (I will exclude the 2018 draft since almost every position was a position of need.) The Bills needed to get younger along the D-line the past two years and AJ and Oliver help the team get younger there, the team also had a need for a between the tackles runner and a tackle and those players fell into their lap at great values.

And in 2018 and 2017 the Superbowl featured high end tight ends. Gronkowski in 2018 and Gronkowski and Ertz 2017. It's a position that presents a huge advantage.

I am just impressed about the insane value the Bills got in rounds 2 and 3. AJ to me was/is a legit late 1st early 2nd round talent found towards the back end of the second round. Moss to me was a early 3rd round talent and we got good value getting him late in the round. The rest of the draft was solid value as well but those first two picks get the team good impact players both long and short term.

Kittle is a beast and deserves WR1 caliber money. He is a great run blocker and an elite level receiving threat, considering how hard it is to find an elite TE I think top TE"s should be paid WR1 or better money. I am talking about top 2-3 TE's guys like Kelce and Kittle who are game changers and can block. They add such a great dynamic to any offense. There is a huge gap between even a very good TE like Hooper and an elite TE like Kelce and Kittle.

I am pretty sure the WHO and CDC aren't giving guidance for rioting.

Any list without Kyle at the top is disqualified. Kyle was an All -Pro or close player from 2010 to 2014 and was still a pro-bowl caliber player from 2015 to 2016 and a valuable starter in his last two seasons from 2017 to 2018. That's 9 seasons of production ranging from Great to highly above average at a quality position. No one else on that list comes close.

The dichotomy is either the player gets the money or the owner.

If hypothetically they were both on the same or similar contract you could make a decent argument Dak would be the better player short term option and lower floor player long term for the Bill's. However Josh plus about 75 or so million in cap space over the next 3 seasons is a better deal than Dak. First off yes Josh could easily regress and be a not so hot property after 2020. You are taking on a lot of risk with Josh and Dak has shown to be a mid level or better QB over the past 4 seasons. BUT Josh is a player with a higher ceiling. Dak in my opinion will be a good QB but never an elite one and seems to want that elite money. Josh also comes with about 70 million in cap space compared to Dak over the remainder of his rookie deal. Dak with a team making cuts to the quality of the roster around him might not be better than Josh with an exceptional roster around him even if Josh is only an above average QB. This is just nonsense the Bill's fortunes are going to ride it die with Josh long term.

I think Bell is a mercenary for sure. He took the Jets offer because it was the biggest offer. But I think the timing of this season makes me think he will at least have a good season (1k rushing and 500 reviving yards. over 4 yards a carry.) Better O-line in front of him, he is only 28 and he has only a fairly small amount of guaranteed money after this season (plenty of motivation to get that back end of his deal.)

Bell's rushing numbers plummeted but his receptions were still solid. I think if the Jets can field a mid-levelish unit in front of Bell he should have a good season maybe not as great as he did with the Steelers but he should improve, he is only 28 and coming into a season where I think he wants to earn the back part of his contract.

Camp body most likely

The Jets O-line rebuild reminds me a lot of what the Bills did last off-season, it wasn't a lot of flashy big moves but it was a quantity effort. The two big starting caliber pieces acquired are McGovern who should anchor their center position and Becton their first round pick. Reminds me of the Bills making a big splash to sign Mitch and drafting Ford early. The Jets also made some smart lesser heralded moves like adding Van Rotten (Reminds me of the Feliciano and Spain) and Alex Lewis (Reminds me of the Spence Long addition solid depth) and another decent sized splash in Fant. McGovern, Fant, Becton, and Van Rotten should all start for the Jets at an average or better level (Or at worst 1 or 2 are slightly below average.) Lewis should also provide some depth. I suspect the Jets will be on the market to add another depth piece or two in either late stage free agency or camp trades. As to the OP's worries, I wouldn't exactly call this group a bunch of maulers. I like McGovern as a good top 10 center and Becton could come in and anchor a tackle position at a good level. But this is an average O-line talent wise and one that will need time to gel. I wouldn't call last year's Bills O-line (a unit with 5 players who never played before) a world beating unit. Even the Bills O-line last year was stacked with more depth and better front line talent than the Jets O-line as it currently stands. The Jets O-line won't likely be a top 10 O-line as chemistry alone would dictate that but they will be significantly improved. Still I wouldn't worry about how our D-line is going to hold up against them.

The Bills brass likes Murphy, 2 years ago they made him their big free agency signing (Well him and Star.) He has 9 sacks in two seasons and isn't a stout run defender. I have no clue with they love him but I think the staff likes him. He isn't a bad player but certainly is overpaid for what he is (an above average rotational DE.) If the Bills are going to bring in someone to compete with Murphy it will either be Johnson or a lesser heralded player in camp. I just don't see them spending any even mid-level money on a free agent just to compete with Murphy. AJ brought youth and depth to the position via the draft and I don't see them rushing to replace a player they likely view as their 4th DE esp given they have a player in Johnson who is young and can compete in camp.

The mental aspect is another reason why often times the best place-kickers aren't the guys drafted high (relative to a place kicker.) Justin Tucker is the best kicker in the league and he was undrafted. Many of the other top kickers in the league are undrafted. Yes some top kickers are mid round or higher picks (Gostkowski was a 4th round pick) but it is such a crap shoot. Typically I don't mind a team taking a chance on a kicker in round 6 or 7 like the Bills did and Haush is a decent proven veteran option.

Bates can play all 5 positions which makes for great in game use as a backup. I think he is likely to make the roster unless there is an unexpected camp over performer.