billsfan89

In 2018 he wasn't that good but in 2019 prior to his injury he was anchoring the rush defense and looking like he will have a breakout season. I think there was a big time reason that the rush defense went into a big recession right after Henry got hurt. Eventually Star improved his play and the scheme was adjusted but Henry was missed. He isn't the same kind of player as Kyle in my opinion.

Milano if I had to guess should be in the range of 8 to 9 million if he takes an extension now (the discount of certainty) if he turns in a strong season and hits the market I can see him getting a 10 to 11 million dollar deal. Overall I think with Dawkins signed the team can afford to play somewhat tight with Milano. Name a price you feel comfortable with (a modest amount relativey speaking) and let him and his agent decide if it makes sense for him or if they want to hit the open market.

The defense is a good collection of talent. Tre is one of the best if not the best corner in the league, Hyde and Poyer are one of the best safety pairs in the league, Edumonds is a Pro-Bowl Caliber LB who can ascend into one of the best at the position, Milano is a borderline Pro-Bowl Talent and Ed Oliver is a breakout waiting to happen. The rest of the defense are solid starters and good role players. But while the collection of talent is good, the way they play as a unit is outstanding. The D-line (barring an Ed Oliver breakout) doesn't feature any Pro-Bowl talent yet they consistently hold their own and the Secondary doesn't feature superstars at CB2 or CB3 yet they aren't a liability. It really is a well crafted defense.

You don't know how difficult the schedule will be even in a normal NFL season. So stop inflating the schedule.

With this team's elite defense, solid special teams, hopefully strong running game and solid skill position talent I think Barkley can game manage this team to .500. Context is key. The 2-5 record probably wasn't with nearly as strong a team. Is Barkley generally speaking a .500 QB? No but on this team he is.

If almost any team in the league loses its starting QB they are *****. There are very few teams in the league that have quality backup options. Outside of maybe a team with an established vet in front of a highly touted QB or a fluky situation like the Eagles where there is one QB in the league that functions so well with that team but nowhere else. The Bills even did invest a 5th round pick in the position this past draft to try and add a developmental prospect to the QB room. Is Barkley a top tier backup QB? No, no he is not, but can he be trusted to go 2-2 in a 4 game stretch managing games if Josh has to miss a month of the season? Yes, I think he is a serviceable backup. I also think beyond him being a decent backup QB, Barkley is beloved in the locker room and won't rock Josh's confidence. Backup QB is fine, Fromm is the long term guy 2 years from now, Barkley is fine for 2020 and 2021.

Maybe Long was just cooked mentally and physically?

I think 2020 will be an odd year for him, I think he will be a solid but unspectacular player in 2020, those ACL injuries are rough, they usually take a year to get back from. I think 2021 will be his breakout year as probably 2019 would have been.

It actually sounds like they are underpaid a little factoring in how rare an elite TE is.

He allowed just one sack all year, I think he is easily one of the best if not the best pass protecting center in the league. I grant you that he was average to above average in the run game but he was far from a liability in that respect. I also think that he was a big reason in the huge uptick in the cohesion of the O-line. The O-line just seemed much better organized and ran better as a unit in 2019 and I think Mitch was a big part of that.

I doubt he cost himself anything significant in 2018 as I think his regression was overblown by fans (he regressed but it wasn't nearly as tragic as many were saying), his 2019 play was going to determine his value on the market in terms of an early extension and his contract is in line with that of an above average young LT (which is kind of what he was in 2019.) Which is how he played in 2020. McBeane has had some stinkers outside of Star and Murphy but they were usually lower level signings under 3 million (Lee Smith, Chris Ivory, and Bodine) but even the larger contracts of Star and Murphy have at least been productive players in their own right.

The leverage NFL teams have with early extensions is that players don't want to risk getting hurt if they play out the last season on a deal. That's typically why so many players end up taking less than they would if they fully hit the market. If you are Dawkins it is best to take the 34 million guaranteed than risk an injury in 2020 and get a fraction of that on a one year prove it deal. The deal seems fair for both sides. If Dawkins plays at the same level he justifies his contract and if he excels beyond it, the contract becomes a complete steal for the Bills. What I like about the deal is that all Dawkins has to do is play at his level and it will be a fine deal.

I wouldn't lump Mitch in with Star and Murphy. Mitch in 2019 was a very good center top 5 or close at his position. They just paid retail for a position that was of desperate need. They paid a lot but they got good production thus far. Whereas with Star the team got a mid-level player at a top tier price and Murphy is paid like a quality starter and has at best been a decent role player.

Tre luckily has one more year on his deal after 2020, I suspect they will reset the market with him next off-season. But Milano is going to be the interesting one here. Do they want to lock him in long term or do they just let him walk and use a draft pick to replace him?

I actually think McBeane with a few exceptions (Star, Murphy and that God awful 2018 free agency class in general) has been mostly getting good to decent value in free agency. In 2017 (granted this was under Whaley but McD was here) they got a complete steal in Poyer and a very good deal on Hyde. In 2019 they paid retail for Mitch but got solid to good value on John Brown, Cole Beasley, Spain, Ty, and Feliciano. This off-season they did a great deal to keep Spain and let Shaq and Phillips walk. They then got a good value on Jefferson and a decent deal on Addison. The only guy they overpaid in my opinion was Butler but its an easy out after one year. Now add a good Dawkins deal and I think I would give him a B or B+ for value in resigning and free agency at this point.

Love it, a solid deal at a premium position. What I love about McBeane's deals is that with few exceptions he signs players to deals where all they have to do to make the deal a solid deal for the team is to maintain their level of production. For Dawkins to justify that contract at LT all he has to do is more or less sustain his 2019 levels of production. But if he gets better than the deal becomes an excellent value.

Percentage of the offense can be misleading. IF Kittle gets triple and double teamed all game and only gets 3 catches for 30 yards on 5 targets but the offense opens up for the rest of the receivers because of the attention he gets then is that any less effective than if he get a monster amount of catches and yards? It's all about context and Kittle in any context is such a huge weapon for an offense. He can block, line up in the backfield and be both a blocker and a receiving threat and he can be a pass catching threat lining up everywhere. That dynamic weapon is easily worth 15 million a season and had he put in another good year and hit the open market he easily could have gotten 17+ million. But he took the security and the big guarantee so you have to compromise a bit on the money.

I fully agree but Cooper played out the five years on his deal and wasn't franchise tagged (because of Dak) so he was able to fully test the free agency market. Whereas Kittle had one more year left on his rookie deal so his leverage was a bit more limited. So the comparison apples to apples to Cooper is a bit flawed because Cooper's deal was done with the maximum leverage possible.

There hasn't been an elite TE to test the market since 2015 with Jimmy Graham. Kelce and Ertz locked in deals before they hit elite status. It was a warped and deflated market.

Kittle has supposedly signed a deal that pays him just under 16 million aav. About what I thought he would get (I said 16.25 or 7.25% of the cap, just a hair under that.) I think he took a bit of a hair cut due to the uncertainty of the cap and the fact that he wants the big deal now. Had he waited to test the market (which would have been a bad move) it would have probably pushed him to 17 million aav. But take the big money now, the TE market has finally been set after all these years.

Why wait a year? This isn't a situation where ownership is going to not be willing to eat a few years on the contract. The Pegula's aren't cheap, McD is going to around at worst 2 more seasons (If the bottom completely falls out and they go 4-12 back to back seasons) and likely at least 3 more seasons if things go bad. The Pegula's are likely willing to eat 3 years on his deal if they want to dump him. If you wait the year you risk having an unstable coaching and GM situation. Show faith in the coach and GM and send a message that they are here to stay.

Did McD inherit a lot of offensive talent? Look at the context of the situation to see why the offenses haven't been very good. The O-line in 2017 was an aging InCog, Wood and a busted up Cordy Glenn. The three best skill position players were Shady (a RB with one more decent season left), Sammy (A malcontent who was traded for good value) and Clay a banged up TE. The QB was Tyrod a decent placeholder but more of a game manager. 2018 they traded a lot of their assets to get Josh and took on a lot of dead money to build the team the right way long term. 2019 they rebuilt the O-line into a respectable unit, added 2 quality WR's and a young RB while getting Josh some more experience. Now they added a stud WR in Diggs, some complementary parts like Moss and kept the O-line cohesion going. They haven't neglected the offense they just started farther back on that side of the ball.

I'd planned on doing a lot of things this year too.

In the 17 years before McD how many playoff appearances has the team made? Since McD got here the team has made 2 both with winning records. He has proven to be an elite defensive coach and built a culture and roster that has set up this team for success in the next 3 seasons. I fail to see what there isn't to like about it. There is no salary cap for coaches if the Bills go 6-10 the next two years and McD gets fire the Pegulas just eat the money.

I think a majority of people on here were against the Jauron and Fitz extensions or were in the middle about it. At that time most people wanted to wait until the end of the season to lock either in. McD on the other hand has proven that he deserves the security and faith a contract extension affords him. This team hadn't made the playoffs for 17 straight seasons and McD has taken this team to the playoffs 2 out of 3 years here. Even if you want to say the 2017 playoff run was luck it was still a 9-7 winning season. McD has produced 2 winning seasons in 3 years, compare that to the previous 17 when the team only had 2 winning seasons. I just don't see what there is to hate about this extension. It isn't like in 2 or 3 years if McD flops that the Pegulas aren't going to want to eat the contract and get a new coach. This isn't a premature player extension where it impacts the cap. The Bills don't have cheap owners anymore, they are more than willing to eat a few years of a head coaches contract.