JESSEFEFFER
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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER
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Could be a random flub, but any reason that fitz is higher in 2010 and cutler is "higher" in 2012. The quotes make it seem like your saying cutler wasn't truly higher
Not sure what you mean but these are subzero numbers here.
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Did you? In 2010 Ryan was higher @ -3.6 to -9.3. Cutler was "higher" in 2011 @ -3.5 to -6.2. Thus, my statement that "Cutler and Fitz have not been that different over the last two years. Both have not been good enough. I like Fitz's chances of getting better, though. It's more about attitude than talent as the huge list of 1st round busts attests to."
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The bolded number is the DVOA - defense adjusted value over avderage. Here's a link to 2011. Basically, Cutler's draft round and supposedly great QB metrics have many here fooled.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2011
As for making tables and spreadsheets work in these forums, I too am no better than average.
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Cutler and Fitz have not been that different over the last two years. Both have not been good enough. I like Fitz's chances of getting better, though. It's more about attitude than talent as the huge list of 1st round busts attests to.
As to the posts here that imply that avg yards per atttempt is some magically meaningful stat, do the math and see what happens when you factor in the sacks a QB takes. Dropping back is an attempted pass play and taking a sack (or maybe avoiding.them) is mostly on the QB. Taking sacks does nothing to QB passer rating nor average gain per attempt. Avoiding them by getting rid of the ball, hopefully without a pick but usually under duress, will hurt completion % and yards per attempt and thus QB passer rating.
Did we learn nothing from Flutie vs. Johnson?
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Football Outsiders 2010
R.Fitzpatrick BUF 223 23 139 24 -3.6% 27 -6.4% 48.3 21 466 2,851 2,676 23 3 3 15 58.1% 2/25
D.Stanton DET 174 24 84 28 12.2% 12 0.0% 42.4 28 123 722 840 4 1 1 3 59.5% 0/0
S.Wallace CLE 151 25 114 25 11.3% 14 5.8% 38.4 34 107 661 749 4 0 0 2 63.4% 1/14
K.Collins TEN 150 26 218 23 -3.2% 26 0.4% 58.7 14 290 1,706 1,720 14 1 3 8 58.2% 3/60
C.McCoy CLE 146 27 84 27 -1.9% 25 -5.8% 45.1 25 245 1,465 1,461 6 1 0 9 61.3% 1/38
D.McNabb WAS 133 28 58 30 -6.9% 29 -9.3% 38.9 33 509 3,078 2,690 14 8 0 13 58.5% 3/48
M.Stafford DET 91 29 80 29 3.0% 21 1.2% 58.1 15 100 504 646 6 0 1 1 59.4% 1/27
J.Cutler CHI 81 30 54 31 -8.5% 30 -9.3% 48.5 19 484 2,930 2,552 23 4 5 16 60.4% 7/140
Football Outsiders 2011
J.Campbell OAK 340 17 326 17 19.8% 6 18.5% 54.3 19 169 1,151 1,348 6 1 0 3 61.0% 3/40
C.Palmer OAK 296 18 298 18 2.5% 15 2.7% 62.6 12 344 2,627 2,145 13 1 1 16 61.2% 3/36
R.Fitzpatrick BUF 189 19 194 20 -6.2% 26 -6.1% 50.5 21 591 3,702 3,383 24 4 1 23 62.5% 11/236
T.Jackson SEA 161 20 61 25 -6.0% 25 -9.2% 37.7 33 495 2,790 2,719 14 3 4 9 60.8% 5/135
J.Cutler CHI 157 21 207 19 -3.5% 21 -1.0% 59.7 14 339 2,140 1,867 13 4 2 7 58.1% 3/35
M.Moore MIA 135 22 124 22 -5.7% 24 -6.1% 56.7 17 388 2,266 2,185 16 6 6 9 60.6% 6/110
D.Orlovsky IND 121 23 36 26 -2.2% 19 -8.5% 49.9 22 204 1,118 1,258 6 4 3 4 64.2% 2/21
K.Orton 2TM 97 24 170 21 -5.4% 23 -1.1% 49.8 23 262 1,686 1,483 9 0 2 9 60.4% 3/32
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Mistimed, misfired (accuracy) or misread. I think we saw one of each type. When watching the broadcast replay of the 1st interception, I thought Stevie ran a lazy route. It looked like an out that was run with a bend rather than a driving break. Sure the throw was late but I think Revis was eating up the cushion before the release. Alas, I have no inclination to rewatch it to see if this impression would still remain the same. By the way, if true, I can see where having a having a gimpy groin might cause a receiver to run a pattern that way.
I think the 3rd pick is typical in the sense that it was a presnap read that went awry. Teams know Fitz does alot of his decision making presnap so they can bait him into thinking he can make certain throws. What looked like press/man coverage became roll/zone and Fitz did not look to see if his presnap read was legit. It's like the zone/blitz pick that Pace made last year. Personally, I do not think the Bills defense does enough of this type of presnap disguise of coverage.
By the way, the Bills defense forced three fumbles that the Jets managed to recover. That's pretty much a matter of luck. It's a much different discussion if they went the other way. Hey, the Bills lost to a good team on the road. They played like crap in all phases of the game but were still within two possessions of the lead with 5+ minutes to go and were attempting an onside kick. No need to panic. Losing to the Chiefs at home would be a legit reason to pull the alarm and yell "Fire!!" But, as of now, I am still in on 10 and 6.
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Wade panicked and sent Christie in with time on the clock and plays to run. End of story,.
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I would like to see the history on this but Fitz has lead a team to victory after having trailed by 18 or more points 4 times in his career. It's the same confidence and risk taking mentality that leads ot blowout losses like they had in Dallas last year. It's the flipside of the same coin.
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I was thinking about an NFL Dinner where they invited all of the AFC East QB's and their significant others to the table. Can you imagine the dialogue after the dinner? We have TB and Giselle, Tannehill and his hot wife, and Sanchez and I guess this week it is Eva Longoria. How much would that suck for the Amish regular guy Rifle?
All kidding aside, he's not had the talent that Eli's had, nor the defense. I hold Fitzy's judgment after this year, not the first two weeks, but the whole season to see if he is really a servicable QB. Everyone wants a quick answer, and many of you have heard me say before we were decomated in talent due to bad FO decisions for decade. We still need one to two WR, a TE, and at least on LB. Once we get there, if we get there we will have a real chance. I'm very hopeful we can provide an effective running game as we showed nothing in the preseason and we will run a great deal in the real season.
We'll see.
I think Fitz is very happy with his All-American wife and mother of his three, soon to be 4, children.
I don't care about the picks he threw in blow out losses. I don't care about the chances he takes. I think he sees a chasing defender with his back turned to him as an an opportunity. I would just want him (and his teammates) to be better in the clutch. There's a fistful of failures in tight games against good teams, some of which were on him (Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers, Bengals, Giants, Jets, etc.) This is where he/they need to be better.
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It's these message boards. We can now microanalyze everythiig that happens and then have group discussions about how we "feel" and if we have "faith' in Chan anymore or if ithas any meaning at all.
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I think the Bills have to design more time into their passing game. A DL can do a two count and throw an arm up with a good chance he can tip a ball. If he does that on a 4 sec play he is liable to be totally ineffective on the rush and get a punch to his exposed midsection. Pump fake, roll out, flea flicker, max protect. Use something to make the defense fear having to defend for more than 2.5 seconds. It's tough to do any of those things with an empty backfield though.
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New England had 31st ranked defense and Green Bay was last. Is defense that important if you have a QB? Just sayin.
Ranking defenses by total yards allowed is a horrible, repeat horrible, way to do it.
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That certainly is a difference from the past few years. It seemed like almost all of his opportunities to pin the opposition deep in their own territory have gone into the end zone and come back out to the twenty.
I was thinking that he was near the end because he couldn't control distance and direction any longer. I am very happy to have been wrong.
The field position formula is looking good. It actually worked well against the Steelers for all but 2 plays. Spiller's fumble and the 3rd and 9, max protect completion from the 2.
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I think they keep 5 so all the names discussed as "bubble" players get cut. Maybe Easley gets on the practice squad and gets his chance when the inevitable injuries strike. It's not likely all the guys that get cut would be unavailble should they be needed later on. The Bills shouldn't fret too much over which it may be. I like Naaman though. Something to be said about having such reliable hands. A dropped third down pass is much the same as a turnover because a 40 yard net punt has the same efffect as an interception deep down field followed by a tackle or going out of bounds.
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I don't mind their programming too much. It's certainly not all sports and it's better described as "guy" talk. The parody of the "ESPN coverage of the the Tebow/Trash can story" this morning was very funny, imo. Humor is like that, it doesn't work for everyone. But you would have to be well immersed in sports culture to "get it."
There is less for the 3 to 7 drive time to talk about without actual, meaningful games going on. For consistently good to great local Bills/NFL talk, all the John Murphy Show programming is archived, so if you have access, you can play those back. These run 1:00 to 1:20 because the commercials are removed, if you can believe that.
No doubt, if you tune in for any 20 or 30 minute stretch of time during the morning or afternoon shows, you could totally miss any of the actual "sports talk" they do. But I don't mind hearing talk about fatherhood, poking fun at sports culture, or pretending to have serious thoughts about things that don't really matter (much like professional sports, in general.) By the way, I like black olives on pizza as long as they are more roasted and are far from their waxy, out-of-the-jar incarnation.
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For some of those who have grown up thinking that fantasy football production and a Madden rating define a players value to a team, this is no contest.
To those that have an appreciation for what an individual human being brings to any group dynamic or who prefer not to live with the hypocrisy of wanting their team to succeed even though they are lead by a person whom they don't respect, the choice is also clear.
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That's certainly possible, but the bigger reason Stevie dropped that was because he KNEW that we wouldn't have had the third pick in the draft to take Dareus is he DID make the catch.
Heads-up play by Stevie J!
GO BILLS!!!
Maybe so. I would just like to point to some meaningful wins against good teams, either on the road or home, to shut some "fans" up that say Fitz can't do this or can't do that.
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I think Fitz has the arm to throw deep but he doesn't really have great touch on his deep ball. Doesn't throw it out in front of his WRs enough for them to make a play on it. Still I'd rather him in there from VY.
If someone can find a video of the post chest injury throw Fitz made to CJ (which he dropped) against the Cowboys last year I'd like to take a look at again. This was ~60 yards up the right sideline, if I recall correctly, in stride with only the back of the endzone available to slow him down.
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No I don't believe he can consistently extend the field or provide the defense with a credible deep threat they have to account for. His longer throws are looper Dooper bloopers that WRs have to wait on. The best strong armed QBs like Eli and Brady hit their guys in stride. Greater velocity allows them to throw a flatter arc.
What's why people who keep blaming SJ for the drop against steelers got it wrong IMO. That ball was under thrown and SJ had to slow down and wait for it, almost catch behind him. That's really hard to do. Catch it in stride is the best way to deliver it. I think that's how young hit graham but I'd need to see a replay to verify.
I think Stevie dropped it because he had enough time to think about whatever "special" TD celebration he had planned. That was an easy, uncontested catch with no concern about the ball placement, contact or keeping his feet in bounds.
I dont understand why everyone is crapping on VY right now. The guy is starting fresh with a new playbook. Can you give him the whole off-season to get adjusted before you start calling him an idiot?
I like Vince Young on this team and I hope is an effective plan B should he be needed. If the season is to end with a playoff appearance, chance is better than even that Vince Young helped to get them there. Having professor Chan to help rebuild his QB psyche might be the best chance he'll get and watching Fitz do his weekly preparation might help too.
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I do not think they want to expose Rian Lindell to having to either make tackles or take on blockers. His shoulder injury last year really contributed to their second half slide. Since they seem to be all in this year, I think they want him to be making their "gotta have them" kicks.
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He's the big box with the fancy wrapping that's been under the Christmas tree longer than any other. It has the look of something special but, until it gets opened, we can't help but let our imagination run wild.
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If the Bills have Stevie, Nelson, Chandler, Fred/CJ and some other guy (Jones, Graham, Easley, Hagan, whoever) their offense will have enough options to function whether that 5th guy is a consistent contributor or not. When the injuries come, and they will, is when we will all notice if their strategy to improve their WR depth internally has worked.
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Some years back, Bill Polian (hardly any football opinion I respect more) had a decision to make about extending either Edgerrin James or Reggie Wayne. Both were big to the Colts' offensive success and he could only fit one under the cap. He chose Wayne and the reason he gave was that it takes rookie receivers 3 seasons within an offense to realize their full potential but a talented rookie RB can be productive in year one. So he extended Wayne, let James walk and drafted Addai.
The moral to this story is that if there is (are) any special player(s) within the Bills' WR group, it's no huge surprise that we haven't seen it yet. But, this is the year for many of these Bills to come due. Look how long it took Stevie.
Cutler
in The Stadium Wall Archives
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Oh, ok, got you. As these were very close but rather mediocre scores, I used the quotes to suggest that we were seeing virtual ties here. Should have use the quotes for both.