JESSEFEFFER
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From dawgsbynature,com
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Brownies: Mayor Frank Jackson was in attendance and talked with Browns owner Jimmy Haslam. ... WR Travis Benjamin caught a long pass by QB Brandon Weeden. ... WR Naaman Roosevelt has reportedly been making some very athletic catches in camp lately. ... Just like the previous week, the Browns had a Lions helmet on one of the blocking sleds this week. ... The Browns were not in full pads again.
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Brownies: Mayor Frank Jackson was in attendance and talked with Browns owner Jimmy Haslam. ... WR Travis Benjamin caught a long pass by QB Brandon Weeden. ... WR Naaman Roosevelt has reportedly been making some very athletic catches in camp lately. ... Just like the previous week, the Browns had a Lions helmet on one of the blocking sleds this week. ... The Browns were not in full pads again.
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From the CantonRep
• Browns wideouts David Nelson and Naaman Roosevelt both went to camp with the Bills last summer. Nelson won a starting job but blew out a knee in the season opener. Roosevelt was cut Aug. 31. Roosevelt has been conspicuous in practice this week, showing some veteran savvy and great hands. Nelson has struggled to make it back from knee surgery and is not expected to play against the Lions
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Remember back to Buddy's taped conversation with Tampa Bay GM Mark Dominic? He made the statement that FItzpatrick would have to "do something" about his contract or the Bills would because that was too much money to pay a guy that was going to compete for "probably a backup" position.
If you think that 1) Buddy was being honest, 2) that they had already targeted EJ and confidently decided that he would be avaialble to them. that 3) Buddy knew he was stepping down after the draft and would have no say in who the starting QB is and that 4) Kevin Kolb is no better than the equal of Fitz then the conclusion left to make is that Buddy was revealing the mindset of Doug Marrone.
All this talk about EJ's raw QB skills and having to earn the job is just to lower expectations and to foster the idea that everyone's spot on the team is earned. But since this is the NFL and there are preseason exhibition games to play, it is difficult to manipulate the competition to favor one over the other.
It is more likely that want EJ to continue to work on his mechanics and it much more difficult to do so when pressured on a consitent basis. They are spoon feeding him to see what he can handle and if the mechanical work they have done on him continues to holdup.
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Pears was decent in 2011 and hurt throughout training camp and into the 2012 season until they finally shut him down. It was a groin/sports hernia injury (?) and it prevented him from anchoring on his blocks. Defenders pushed him around rather easily which lead to some of Fitzpatrick's more infamous throws of 2012.
A healthy Erik Pears as a starter is fine with me.
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I thought I'd see if I could find a camp report on Naaman. Here's one who liked what he saw: http://www.cantonrep.com/browns/x1592809001/Borderline-dirty-at-Browns-training-camp?rssfeed=true
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Lebeau has been with the Steelers for so long I forgot about that. Walt Corey was successful but seems the offense was more prominent in the media. I haven't looked up Corey's defensive stats during those Glory Years but I assume they were nothing to shake a stick at.
Any defense that complements a high scoring, no-huddle offense is going to give up yards when playing with a lead, which, by-the -way, is the dumbest way possible to rank a defense.
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The Bills have invested mostly in their defense in the last 4 drafts and their poor defensive rankings = generally poor opinions on their overall talent. The collective opinion on Gillmore, Dareus, Carrington, Troupe, Bradham, Alonso, Searcy, 2 Williams, Bradham, Brooks, etc. are tied directly to that. If Mike Pettine can do what Wade Phillips did with the Texan's defense, the consensus opinions on the Bills' young talent and NIx's drafts will swing dramatically.
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Here's a link to a BN story about what he had been working on. He may have shaved .2 sec off his 40 time. If true, I think he will stick as his sure hands will be a big asset to the Browns. As I recall, Little is very suspect in that area and the fans were on him alot.
His hands are top notch and I think he was more of an asset to the offense in 2010 and 2011 than TJ was last year.
http://www.buffalonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20121029/SPORTS/121029088/1004
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I agree with Jefferr. I used in a conversation today about Wade Phillips is one of the best DC in football, just not a HC.
If Pettine does what I think will happen, and they figure out Byrd's deal, we'll rank markedly better. This will put much less stress on an offense, we can run more, which is our strength, and now imagine EJ running a pistol part of the time with with Spiller.
I know I'm in that honeymoon phase now with a couple of weeks before training camp, but I hate not having hope.
Go Bills!
If you know your Shawshank:
Andy Dufresne: [in letter to Red] Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.
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It wasn't long ago that the Texan's defense was described by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders as "historically bad." This reality changed the day Wade Philips took over as DC. That same scenario is the one the Bills need to be considered in the "worst to first" conversation.
As for the fumbles lost, they seemed to have an inordinate amount of fumbles in the passing game after successful plays in the open field. The odds are against the offense for recovering these as the defenders rally to the ball. I recall Chandler, Dickerson, SJ, Spiller, FJax multiple times.
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> You seem to be infatuated with ypa but when you consider sacks as part of the equation what happens to the numbers? The difference pretty much disappears, that's what.
That's news to me. Statistically, the difference between Cutler and Fitzpatrick is substantial. I'd need a lot of convincing to be persuaded that sacks could make a difference like that go away. Specifically, I'd need to see quantitative analysis--not just unsupported opinions.
As for YPA: Kelly Holcomb and John Elway have very similar career completion percentages and QB ratings. Someone who looked at stats like those would think that the two QBs were statistically similar. But Elway has a commanding advantage over Holcomb in YPA; correctly revealing that Elway was by far the better quarterback. Holcomb's completion percentage and QB rating are inflated because he attempted a lot of short, high percentage passes. YPA is much harder to inflate.
> Getting rid of the ball to avoid a sack hurts comp% and ypa. Take the sack and both stats
> are unaffected. This was the Rob Johnson method to effective QB stat production.
Granted. But Jay Cutler is not Rob Johnson.
> I'd rather have Fitz QB my team over Cutler because they produce about the same and Fitz is not a jerk.
As stated earlier, their production isn't about the same. I'll grant that there are times when Cutler seems to march to the beat of his own drummer; and that there are times when he's annoying or disappointing as a result. On the other hand, you can rely on Fitz not to bring any personality-related drama into the locker room. But even though I too would prefer to have a Fitz personality in the locker room to a Cutler personality, I'm not convinced that Fitz's advantage there is sufficient to offset Cutler's edge in talent and production.
The numbers from Pro Football Reference. Specifically the NY/A category (Net Yards per Attempt) defined as ((Passing yards - sack yards)/ (pass attempts + sacks))
Jay Cutler 2012...5.90 2011....6.41 2010.....6.04
Ryan Fitz 2012....6.05 2011....6.23 2010....6.14
So where's the big difference between them? It's pretty much nonexistent is the answer.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/
winning isn't everything.......
Is this from the "the other 51 men on the roster are irrelevant--It's all on the QB" line of thinking?
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You seem to be infatuated with ypa but when you consider sacks as part of the equation what happens to the numbers? The difference pretty much disappears, that's what. Getting rid of the ball to avoid a sack hurts comp% and ypa. Take the sack and both stats are unaffected. This was the Rob Johnson method to effective QB stat production. I'd rather have Fitz QB my team over Cutler because they produce about the same and Fitz is not a jerk.
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This brings up the question of which man Buffalo lost to Philly was the more devastating. Jason Peters or this guy.
http://www.buffalobroadcasters.com/photos/rocketship7withdavethomas.html
What say you Promo?
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1) Pettine was offered an extension which he, of course, did not sign. He probably had good reasons for not doing so.
2) He was always going to be under the shadow of Rex Ryan.
3) The coaching future of Rex Ryan in New York is tenuous at best. This could be his last year and the Sanchez/Smith tandem does not look capable of saving his bacon.
4) He was being criticized for being the source of stories about the Jets locker room that tended to make the organization look bad but give Rex some cover
His "lateral move" is consistent with all of this.
Also, if you send a corner or safety but drop a down lineman into coverage, this does not count as a blitz because there are still only 4 involved. The article said 5 or more pass rushers. Hence the need for hybrid players that are versatile enough for different parts of the field.
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It happens nearly every year that a team will go from last to first in their division. This is mostly a matter of luck and hidden talent, that, under new circumstances, reveals itself and reaches a critical mass. Since this is a matter of historical record, there is no reason that we as Bills fans would not be entitled to try to look for evidence that this year it could be our team.
The realists (pessimists) think that since it hasn't happened in the last 13 seasons that it can't happen this year. Any true realist (optimist) would see that this happens with regular occurrence in the NFL and say "Why not the Bills this year?"
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There are two PI plays that rankle me. Third and 10+ do not draw a flag on an underneath route and on a throw deep down the field do not make contact with the receiver without looking back for the ball. Both of these are clueless signs of overmatched CB play. Most of the rest come with good, aggressive CB play that contests the route, the ball and the man attempting the catch.
I am of the opinion that the pass will be completed unless the CB successfully defeats some part of the process so I was very pleased with his rookie season. He competed very well.
As to the article, I respect any analyst that will go beyond the consensus beliefs and actually do some in-depth analysis. it's all the better when the end up agreeing with me.
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The way I remember it, Boldin had as much to do with their late season run as did Flacco. Once a super Bowl winning QB gets their big payday the chances of their team winning another have to go down. Maybe way down.
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Likely DROY candidates: DE (Ansah, Werner, D Jones, Hunt) LB (Jordan, Mingo, J Jones, Ogletree, Minter, Teo, Alonso, Bostic, Brown, Collins) DB (Milliner, Hayden, Trufant, Rhodes, Vaccaro, Reid, Slay, Banks) DT (Richardson, Lotulelei, Floyd, Williams)
The DROY award favors sacks, tackles, and interceptions. That's why DEs, OLBs, and MLBs are the historically favored winners. Situational and/or rotational players are not the favored candidates and that's usually DTs and DBs. If Alonso manages to play all three downs for the entire season, his chances of winning get much better as he will rack up the stats that matter.
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Likely OROY Candidates: QB (Manuel, Smith) RB (Bernard, Bell, Ball, Lacy) WR (Austin, Hopkins, Patterson, Hunter, Woods, Dobson, Williams, Allen) .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................
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The biggest problem with Freddie last year was his fumble issues. If he can correct them this off season, I have no problems.
About 200+ players were drafted and 100+ players were signed as UDFAs in this years draft. Technically, about 300+ players have a chance to be DROY and OROY. The probability is pretty low.
Follow the logic here.
1) Not all positions are equally favored. Some have zero chance based on the history.
2) To win the award, a candidate has to play. Not only play but be a starter for the entire season or nearly so.
This shrinks the pool of probable winners way down.
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Except for Pears being terrible?
Pears F: He was awful before his injury shut him down. Will likely look for a replacement at right tackle.
Pears was injured all of training camp and tried to play on one good leg. Assuming a return to better health, I would not write him off just yet. He was pretty good in 2011.
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Trying to play Solomon here but if you were to look at the history of the award and limit the field of potential candidates to those most likely to win by position and draft slot, the Bills are among a small group of teams that have any realistic chance of winning BOTH awards. As it is, I put it at ~ 1/100 chance of winning both. Other teams with a chance to do it are the Rams, Steelers, Vikings, Packers and Jets.
Bills (Manuel, Woods / Alonso)
Rams (Austin / Ogletree)
Vikes (Patterson / Floyd, Rhodes)
Steelers (Bell / Jones)
Packers (Lacy / Jones)
Jets (Smith / Milliner, Richardson)
So I agree with the OP that the Bills could do this given the positions they drafted and their opportunities to make an impact but 1/100 is not consistent with "could very well" as some have based their derision on.
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There's 1 chance in 32 of the OROY being a Bill.
There's 1 chance in 32 of the DROY being a Bill.
So there's 1 chance in 1,024 of both the OROY and DROY being Bills.
It would be awesome if it happened.
Haslett and Conlan were the two Bills defenders to win the AP award. Alonso looks to be cut from the same cloth as a 3 down defender that is likely to make a lot of tackles as a rookie starter. LBs and DEs are the favored choices over DTs and DBs and I'd put the probability at ~ 1/12.
QBs and WRs seem more likely to win the award in today's NFL and there really aren't that many RB candidates this year anyways. There are more RB by committee approaches now , especially for rookies. O-line has never won the AP award and when you consider that the winners are usually top of the draft talents (makes sense--they are more talented and more likely to play from day 1) the field of potential winners is much smaller. My guess is that Manuel and Woods give the Bills 2 chances out of 16 or so.
Without a calculator, that gives the Bills an ~ 20% chance to win one award and ~1% chance to win both.
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Maybe. It looks like a good year for a 3-down linebacker and a WR to win the awards. The offensive award has been won most often by RBs and, of late, QBs and the defensive award by DEs and LBs. This draft did not produce all that many of the traditional candidates.
Browns WR Naaman Roosevelt
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
From Vic Carucci @ clevelandbrowns.com
For the second day in a row, wide receiver Naaman Roosevelt put on a show by catching the ball well. One of his receptions was for a 20-yard touchdown on a nice pass from Brian Hoyer.