JESSEFEFFER
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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER
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Probability of winning 1 is up to 40% and of winning both at 5% is my guess. Still early in the season and the injury scenarios keep the numbers from going higher. So, I guess I am saying that it's worth more mainstream consideration and, if the probablities keep climbing, puts AD7 in the running for TBD post of the year.
If the Bills were to be a playoff calibre team, the pro football writers will be inclined to want to explain it somehow. Two RsOY would help it make sense.
As an update I think that the probability of winning one is up to 60% and both is up to 10% (Kiko 50% EJ at 20%). EJ's return to health gives him an improved chance and if he leads the Bills to a hot finish and maybe the playoffs, it will make an impression.
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I was skeptical about his lack of production in college. I thought his presence in the offense last year was more hindrance than help and it looks much the same this year. I am a little biased though. I like what Naaman Roosevelt had to offer as an NFL WR and TJ basically bumped him off the roster. Superior hands, reliable routes, can make adjustments to beat defenders to the ball. I'd take that package over "elite speed" every day of the week. I am hoping TJ will eventually prove me wrong.
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He doesn't bother me as much as he does some of you by anyone that talks that much is bound to say something less than stellar, much like Tim McCarver's baseball commentary.
But I think that accusing Colston of having "alligator arms" on a throw deflected about two feet away from landing in his hands was pretty dumb. He'd have to be Flash for his hands to react that quickly to the change in direction.
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It is IMPOSSIBLE to know what every camera angle will or won't show or how willing a referee will be to do some simple geometry i.e. knee at the goal line with upper body leading forward = ????? I personally can't say he was wrong in either case just that there wasn't a camera angle that showed he was conclusively right.
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A winning streak that puts them in playoff contention.
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That was Buddy on the infamous phone conversation with TB's Dominic. It was Buddy that said they were open to trading down this year. It was Buddy that said that they had identified a "franchise caliber" QB in this year's draft while most others were saying one did not exist in this class. It was Buddy that said before the draft that he wanted to have a franchise QB in place before he retired.
I think it was Buddy's show but Whaley was involved with every big decision they made. The reason this matters is that if this draft sets up their roster for future success, as it very well might, it would define Buddy's tenure as one that "set the table."
By the way, most of his defensive picks are looking much better under Pettine's coaching. If EJ is a hit, then he did B work in my book. Gailey made chicken salad with the offense to the point where SJ, Chandler, and the o-line were identified as assets. There was enough right with this offensive roster that a rookie could step in with a chance to succeed.
The mess on D may have only amounted to picking earlier in the draft but I have to believe that Pettine saw the roster and liked it enough to think this was a good place to improve his resume.
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Here in the Jamestown area, there are significant factions of Bills, Browns and Steelers supporters. Two of this group of three is not like the other (Ralph mucked it up when he passed on a dvisional realignment which would have included these two .) Browns/Bills fans have suffered a parallel NFL existence. Most are too young to have seen their championship teams and they've seen their team either be mediocre to pathetic most years or ultimately disappointing those few seasons when they were actually elite.
It's hard to hate fans that have actually lived our worst nightmare. We know them very well, both the good and the bad, because we have suffered through much the same fandom experience. There is no other group of fans more like us than them.
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Still find it hilarious how much hate was spewed when I started this thread in the off season. Rather than people focus on the positive potential, they preferred to be right about how negative they are. Having a different opinion, fine, but people literally flipped out in this thread over this idea.
IMO If season ended today, Kiko would be DROY...EJ and DeAndre Hopkons would be a coin flip for OROY, and edge probably would go to EJ just because he plays QB.
So far so good, our young rookies have really done some really good things so far. Both have a lot more work to do, but I think its safe to say they are off to a pretty good start (especially considering the time missed by EJ) and that the idea of having a DROY and OROY is not so far fetched like the negative nancies want to believe.
I loved Kiko on draft night and knew he would be an impact player for this team and hyped him all off season and draft night. EJ is another guy I believed in from early on...so far, I am very happy with what I have seen from them and believe they will continue to get stronger as the season goes on. There will be growing pains I am sure, but we are headed in a great direction, including Woods!
Probability of winning 1 is up to 40% and of winning both at 5% is my guess. Still early in the season and the injury scenarios keep the numbers from going higher. So, I guess I am saying that it's worth more mainstream consideration and, if the probablities keep climbing, puts AD7 in the running for TBD post of the year.
If the Bills were to be a playoff calibre team, the pro football writers will be inclined to want to explain it somehow. Two RsOY would help it make sense.
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Who are these rookie quarterbacks?
A) 3-13, 26 TD, 28 INT, QB rating: 71.2
B) 0-11, 9 TD, 18 INT, QB rating: 55.7
C) 1-4, 3 TD, 8 INT, QB rating: 56.9
D) 3-13, 12 TD, 14 INT, QB rating: 76.9
E) 4-12, 22 TD, 17 INT, QB rating: 83.8
F) 4-6, 7 TD, 14 INT, QB rating: 54.9
G) 8-8, 17 TD, 16 INT, QB rating: 76.9
The answers?
A) Peyton Manning
B) Troy Aikman
C) Steve Young
D) Warren Moon
E) Jim Kelly
F) John Elway
G) Drew Brees
Last I heard, those guys all turned out OK.
The sky is not falling.
Good point. I'd say the better analogs are Eli and Flacco as they are more of the "modern era." Eli was particulaly mediocre for the majority of his first FOUR seasons. The NY fans and media were after him right up until the Super Bowl run in 2007. I would still question Flacco's new contract as I don't think he's in the elite category. EJ struggled and was indecisive but he didn't turn it over (save for one fumble which could not be reviewed) and managed to have his team tied in the 4th quarter.
The giveaways usually accompany such struggles and I think it's a good sign that he managed to protect the ball while having these issues. Eli is a turnover machine when things are going wrong with the Giants offense.
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These threads are unreal.
Hmmm. Puzzling opinion. Anyways, here's a link to one compilation of rookie stats:
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This thread might be worthy of weekly updates as the season progresses. Based on early season events, the chances of this happening have gone up.
Some of the rookie contenders have gotten off to slow starts due to injury or poor play while the 3 contending Bills are still amongst the most likely. I'd say the probability of winning one has gone up to 27% and of winning both has doubled from 1/100 to 1/50.
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Nope...he's too short.
From the scouting report I read he has a hard time throwing to the left.
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Nelson has been limited due lingering knee issues. Naaman has a hamstring problem this week but has not gotten much game opportunity. I think he only moves up the depth chart if there are significant injuries ahead of him no matter what he does in practices. I suspect he needs to play somewhere (CFL?) and be megaproductive to get a decent NFL chance.
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With all the cute remarks here, I am putting a depressingly serious thought on here. This is a General Manager mistake, complicit with the head coach. WHY were there only three QB's in camp? Answer.....save a few bucks...should have been a fourth who at least knew the playbook at this point. From the coaches point of view...more reps for those left on the roster. But, both GM and coach are rookies. So, the Bills will pay for having a rookie GM and a rookie Head Coach. And they will pay big, we are now officially in the Clowney derby. These are mental errors on the part of the Bills management, we are used to that. I thought that a new QB should have been signed when Manuel went down....but, still saving bucks then. Wahley did not make the calls until after the game yesterday. To little, to late. Way to late.
Supposedly the new CBA limits practice time to the point where a 4th guy will limit reps for the others to the point where it might hamper a rookie's development. The Bills have TWO rookies to consider. I do not think this was a money thing as they have chosen to throw it away in other areas for less important needs and EJ's "procedure" is not likely a long term issue.
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Does this mean he'll be more durable than Kolb?
I spend much of my time in an area of WNY that is mostly swamp and flood plain. I understood why the Dolphins pulled him after the 3 series as I have often stopped my car and gotten out to either relocate or assist the turtle to the other side. I do not want that picture of an unsuccessful turtle I could have assisted stuck in my brain as I retrace my route later in the day.
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John Beck is notable to me as the single worst QB I have ever seen the Bills play against in a nonstrike NFL contest. Got his first rookie start agianst the Bills and was so bad he was pulled after 3 series. Then there was the 10 sack game in Toronto. I suspect he has a higher career sack rate than Rob Johnson. The only reason I could think that he would have lasted in the NFL this long is that he looks OK when wearing the red "don't hit me I am the QB" pinny in practices. In real games he plays like a turtle crossing a highway.
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Saw the super slow mo. He droped his head. Fine him.
sure you can. Players are tought to put their facemask across the ball. Bostic lead with the crown of the helmet, and launched himself. Good fine.
They only care about launching when the hit is high. This is a bad fine as it was properly targeted. Like Lonnie Johnson, this was a ball carrier looking in a direction other than the one in which he was running.
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It is impossible to lower one's shoulder to deliver a blow without the head being lowered as well. They want the target zone lowered and that's what this was. The shoulder hit to the upper body violently snaps Willie's helmet forward. A helmet to helmet hit would have snapped it backward which was not the case here. Wilie's body sort of contorts into the letter "c." But the NFL has shown a problem understanding basic Newtonian Laws of Motion and human anatomy in other instances.
As for the use of "defenseless," this should never be applied to a player in possession of the ball and running with it, imo.
By the way, this hit reminded me of Sharper's on Lonnie Johnson which I have never heard anyone say was dirty under any set of rules. Just that it was befitting of a certain Warner Bros. cartoon character that always felt like his brilliantly developed plans were succeeding right up until disaster struck.
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Let's see how Buddy's defensive picks look in Mike Pettine's D. Jerry Hughes for Sheppard might be historic--in the realm of Lewis for Seymore. If they still look underwhelming, then the Nix legacy will be as well. If the D is top 10 in the near future, Marrone is a hit and EJ justifies his draft position, then Nix will be properly viewed as the man who set the table.
"History is written by the victors."
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It is highly probable that the Bills organization put more time into evaluating this years' QB class than any other NFL entity. Buddy looks right about Cordy Glenn and they could be just as right about EJ. This buys them some credibility in my world if not Todd McShay's.
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Well, wade, and adding probowl talent to one of the worst secondaries in the history of the game. Did you see any texans games in 2010? disastrous. Watt helped too but the 31st ranking was WRs running wiiiiide open all day long and they totally revamped the personnel because of it. Jonathan Joseph, I think daniel manning, 3 of their top 5 picks were DBs, and a first rounder the year prior.
Maybe the analogous talent infusion that makes the difference will be Alonso, Lawson, Hughes and Dowtin.
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Here's a different take. According to Football Outsiders, the Houston Texans D was ranked 31st in 2010, 6th in 2011 and 3rd in 2012. Maybe the biggest difference was more maturity, better health or JJ Watt but, in my opinion, the biggest reason for this rather abrupt improvement was Wade Philips.
So, the question becomes, if the 2013 Bills can be a top 10 defense under Mike Pettine (that's where the NJ Jets were every year and I think the Bills have more talent) what kind of record could they have?
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Naaman is a Buffalo guy so he gets the benefit of many favorable appraisals here but I go further with this. Every dropped third down pass that would have converted a first down is nearly the same as as turnover. Every incorrect route run is a potential interception.
Buffalo's offense last year suffered when TJ Graham got more playing time due to injuries. I'd rather have a WR with the utmost in reliability rather than one with a supposedly higher ceiling. I'd love for Naaman to get a chance to prove me right.
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If you watched Roosevelt at UB, this is no surprise. The guy has velcro hands. He would not be fast enough for Marrone's Bills but I hope he sticks with the Browns.
PTR
Did you check out the link in post 23? If accurate, Naaman is more of a 4.4 WR now rather than a 4.6 sec.
Teddy Bruschi Defensive Index
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I think these rankings generally hold true but where the Bills have been weak is in allowing big TD plays. They certainly effect scoring but not 3rd down% (if on 1st or 2nd down) or redzone efficiency. Getting a healthier secondary should improve those numbers. I look for a strong finish from this defense.