JESSEFEFFER
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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER
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Doubt it was the Bills. Pretty sure we would've taken Newton if he was available at #3, and if we had Gabbert rated almost as high, we probably would've taken Gabbert instead of Dareus. That being said, not sure Bills would've had Manuel rated much higher than this list or else we wouldn't have risked trading down and him still being available. This list does kind of confirm that Manuel wasn't much of a reach at #16.
I think the Bills had a good gauge on who else was in the market and which of those teams were also interested in EJ (NYJ and Phi?) They were looking at who might jump back into the first round to get him ( maybe at 20+) and had been burned enough over the prior years that they were not going to chance it any further than 16.
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For the difference in the value between a 4th round pick and a 7th? That's a franchise altering difference? The only real value to EJ is if he somehow grows into the position. You know, what talented, hard working, coachable human beings with the right attitude tend to do with experience.
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Well, if the Browns were so kind as to draft a WR and said WR had a HOF type career that was obviously better than Sammy's, some posters here could B word about that for the next decade too. That would be logically flawed but that would not stop them.
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He also is very comparable to Joe Flacco's first season's worth of games.
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David Cutcliffe, HC of Duke, has been the go to guy forthe Manning's off season work for much of their pro careers. He was Peyton's OC at Tennesee and Eli's HC at Mississippi. Peyton went to him after his neck surgery to put his throwing motion back together and rebuild his confidence. David Cutcliffe has never played in the NFL or coached in it and, as a matter of fact, never played the QB position.
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John Murphy introduced him as having more yardage than Aikman, more completions than Unitas, higher comp% than Elway. Lost his starting spot to HOF QBs more than once. He was the QB on the KC team that routed the Bills on an infamous Monday night game. They could not block Thomas with the crowd noise, Kelly was sacked 6 times and they lost 33 to 6. Showed how a total protection breakdown can wreck an offense filled with HOF/Pro Bowl talent. JJ Watt anyone?
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Whether it was Manuel or Orton last year, the O-line simply could not do their jobs well enough for the offense to function. To many breakdowns in protection and not enough push or agility to make anything work consistently. If the line is fixed this year and can get to the top half of the league, the Bills will have a great season. If it took 2nd and 3rd round picks to add to the mix to get it done, I would not care. Whatever it takes. Fix it.
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In terms of those two games Orton was not very good against the Raiders. He still threw for 329 yards and had roughly an average QBR of 47.5. The game EJ played against the Texans was the worst QB performance that I have ever seen live (the worst that I have ever seen period is that game that Rex Grossman played around Christmas time about 10-12 years ago). EJ had a QBR of 7.4 in that game.
It is okay to say that it is to early to tell on him but I wouldn't be using that Texans game as a part of your argument. Guys have bad games and in that particular game he was an abomination. He has had good games as well.
Pro Football Focus credited Sammy with 3 drops. I think there were two drops by others as well. JJ Watt had the single highest game grade ever given to any defensive player. They credited him with 15 pressures and 9 QB hits. I suspect EJ may have had some minor role in this because we heard rumors of missed protection calls and incorrect drops but letting JJ Watt run amok will wreck an offense. I doubt any o-lineman had a positive grade that day but some want to act like the team was performing well and that any other QB would have performed well enough that day for a win. I think EJ did well to take only 2 sacks and still have a shot to win in the last two minutes and failed due to an egregious no call PI on Woods that lead to the Int.
Joe Flacco's day against Houston in a December game with playoff implications:
21 of 50 for 195 yds, 2TD, 3 Int and a tQBR of 3.2.
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Here's an example of QBR's woes, and, shockingly, it's pro-EJ.
Tim Tebow vs. NYJ in 2011.
9 of 20, for 104 yard. 45%, 5.20 YPA, 0 TD's 0 INT's. 53.7 QBR.
EJ Manuel vs. ATL in 2013
18 of 32, 210 yards, 56.3% 6.56 YPA, 1 TD 0 INT's. 50.3 QBR.
And make no mistake, EJ should've gotten "clutch factor" points. I don't agree with a lot of the excuses made for him, but he won that game.
And we get this. This is the barometer for QB success?
Good points and I wonder this in addition, would EJ's rating have been better if SJ and Chandler hadn't fumbled at the end and the Bills won? If so, it would seem be less objective. But I'll give it this. The SD game was a tough game for EJ with the wind and pass protection problems with which to deal. I think his tQBR was sub 10 but passer rating was ~85. I think the former was more reflective of what went on and not the latter.
Did Tebow do anything in the run game in the above mentioned?
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No, I want to see the methodology. Not the "summary." Things like "clutch factor" need to be seen and evaluated. In fact, the entire thing does.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6833215/explaining-statistics-total-quarterback-rating
You're a man of science. Don't tell me you were convinced of the validity of tQBR because ESPN told you it works.
I will interject here about the tQBR in that is superior to the NFL passer rating in some big ways.
QB fumbles, sacks taken, the game context of when yards are gained, and anything positive a QB does while running the ball are all ignored by passer rating. Logically, not scientifically, any rating system that includes these things has to better than one that doesn't.
Tanneyhill is interesting as there are parallels to EJ in their early careers. The biggest difference is that Philbin has stuck with Tanneyhill after his strings of poor play while Marrone benched EJ after two poor games.
RT 2013 games 4-7 16.4, 39.7, 15.0, 29.8
RT 2014 games 1-3 34.9, 27.3, 21.2 (It seemed Philbin was close to benching him here as he would not back him as the starter when the Miami press asked if he would)
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I'll add this to this thread. I've been kicking around a concept for QBs that is analogous to MLB's quality start for pitchers (3 or fewer runs in 7 or more innings.) Using FO's/ESPN's tQBR (designed to be comprehensive within game context) and setting the arbitrary bar at 50 (their midpoint of a QB helping or hurting the cause) I came up with the following:
Ryan Tannehill has hit the QS threshold in 50% of his starts in every one of this three years in the league.
Locker and Bradford (favored by many this off season) are at 42% for their careers.
Joe Flacco (I most directly compare EJ to him in terms of what I think he can be) was 37.5% in his first year.
Kyle Orton was 4 of 12 in 2014 (my comment is Yikes!!!) Really Doug Marrone. This guy was giving us the best chance to win? Actually, he might have done EJ a favor by hitting the reset button on his career in terms letting him roll into 2015 with something of a chance to be "new and improved."
EJ is 8 of 14 for 58% of his starts.
I intend to do a more thorough job of this soon but his is what I think it can show vs. the aggregate tQBR for a season or career. Is the number a result of overall bad games that are pulled up by a few great games? This is Kyle Orton's 2014, especially due to the starts vs. the Jets.
Or is it a result of a majority of decent games but with a few bad/horrible games (usually weighted greater than good games) that have skewed a rating downward? This is generally true of EJ (TB, SD,Houston.)
So this is why I, along with AD7's reasoning, vote NO. This is not blind faith. It is a fact based rationale for wanting to see EJ in this offense, this year.
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I voted no, but with more information...I get you said straight up, but why debate that, its not within the realm of possibility, so whats the point in my eyes other than try and further slam EJ. It would be too expensive to package EJ with high pick or picks to get Tannehill, so therefore I vote no as I don't know if Tannehill is worth that at this time. So these make believe scenarios are pointless.
I will never understand how so many people here made excuse after excuse for horrible QBs like JP, Trent, and even Fitz yet go out of their way to grossly over exaggerate EJs struggles. EJ has had a better first 14 games than many top QBs, past and present, yet people talk about here like he is in the Brohm, Tuel, Leaf, category. Its actually absurd.
The kid has talent, has 3 comeback wins in 14 games, a couple rookie of the week nods, and some decent games on his resume. He has only had a few really bad games, yet guys like Fitz, Trent, and JP had more hoffible games than good games yet they got years to prove they suck. People wanted to prove EJ sucks the day he stepped on the field
If he can stop playing overly careful and let loose, use his legs, and not hold back this kid could become a legit starter. But haters just want to OVER EXAGGERATE the hate to levels reserved for guys like Whitner despite the fact that the kid puts in the time to be great, is a great teammate, didn't pout when Orton got the nod, running up and down the sidelines cheering the offense when Orton (rarely) did something right, etc.
I just don't understand the mission to destroy the kid on this board. He may or may not become a good starter, but the potential is there and he's putting in the work...so let it go and let it play out on the field already and wish the kid luck.
I am with you AD7 on all these points. I think the part of your post that I bolded best explains the source of most of the animus toward EJ. One could legitimately vote for Tannehill on the basis of where he is in his career path and think he'd be better for this Bills team, this year but that's not me. Some think all you have to do is pick "Mr QB Right" and all can live happily ever after but that's not me. I believe in talent, hard work, character and patience. I really want to see how EJ looks in this offense with these coaches. He just might surprise us all.
I am with you AD7 on all these points. I think the part of your post that I bolded best explains the source of most of the animus toward EJ. One could legitimately vote for Tannehill on the basis of where he is in his career path and think he'd be better for this Bills team, this year but that's not me. Some think all you have to do is pick "Mr QB Right" and all can live happily ever after but that's not me. I believe in talent, hard work, character and patience. I really want to see how EJ looks in this offense with these coaches. He just might surprise us all. -
Some of EJs detractors are overanalyzing his game to the point that they could never do with any other young QB because of the team he plays for. As if his struggles somehow reveal flaws fatal to his potential and are unique to him. When you look at him within his peer group (other QBs early in their careers) he doesn't look to be behind at all. I have him in the 20 to 40% chance at a long term Bills QB only because I am not so certain how the new staff views him. If they commit to him I'd put his chances at 70% or higher of succeeding on a Joe Flacco level.
When I rewatch plays that I initially thought were ones where EJ screwed up I come away thinking that my intial assessment was wrong. For instance, the overthrow to Sammy in the Texans game where Sammy could only get one hand on the ball was actually a pattern where Sammy almost collided with a defender and had to take evasive action, break stride and redirect his pattern. I would guess that this would easily cost him two steps toward the ball.
In the SD game, the dig route to Sammy that came in at his shoetops was actually tipped by Kendall Reyes who was driving Pears right into EJ's lap as he swiped at the release point. The last int thrown in the Houston game was an egregious nocall of a defensive foul on Woods that occurred over 15 yards. It started out as an illegal contact and became what would have been a blocking foul in basketball and is PI in the NFL.
In 8 of EJ's 14 starts, he had a tQBR over 50. This is actually a decent % for a young QB. Tannehill has been at 50% for each of his three seasons. Flacco was at 50% over his first 32 games and Bradford and Locker are at 42% for their careers. In a direct assault to "he gives us the best chance to win" thinking, Kyle Orton hit the 50 tQBR threshold in only 4 of his 12 games in 2014. When looking at this stat in a game by game basis, you see how two QBs can have similar overall ratings but can get them by different means. There are those that have a majority of poor perfromances with an overall rating skewed by a few outstanding games whereas others can have a majority of decent games skewed by a few horrendous games. EJ is in the latter group which I take as a good sign.
IMO, all this is to say that the magnitude of EJ's poor play has been largely over magnified, he has played at a "give my team a chance to win" level more often than than most think and he is likely to become more proficient at his job because that's what human beings with raw ability and good character tend to do as they gain more experience.
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The Dolphins made a huge mistakes by entrusting him to be a team leader and giving him free reign over the players' locker room. He made mistakes in that there are lines you don't cross and he was clueless about where and what they are. His next team will not make that mistake and I'd bet Incognito might have learned something from his.
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I was not happy with the hire because I prefer a different HC style. I describe it as a sliding scale from Ditka to Walsh and to me Rex has been too far from the Walsh end of the scale. I think that sustained winning comes from a smart, thinking, problem solving leader and not one that favors pulling the emotional triggers. It's the difference between owning the moment (winning the battles) and reinventing your team year after year (winning the wars.) Rex never did come up with solutions to keep their team near the top. Ther offense never improved.
So I think the OP was spot on. I was actually angry with the hire but I have since, upon further review, decided to be more hopeful. He seems way smarter than Ditka.
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If anything, Watt exposed the oline. Watt also helped Flacco have an even worse game later in the season.
It was a fake United front. Whaley and Marrone haven't been on the same page for awhile but they had to pretend.
Thus, one guy is here and the other one is interviewing for jobs still.
EJ's 14 games are in line with Flacco's start. Of course Ravens fans were complaining about him right up to when they won the Super Bowl with him. And then he followed that with a season of "regression" which was maybe worse than EJ's. Flacco may be a good model for what a successful EJ might look like.
EJ's 14 games are in line with Flacco's start. Of course Ravens fans were complaining about him right up to when they won the Super Bowl with him. And then he followed that with a season of "regression" which was maybe worse than EJ's. Flacco may be a good model for what a successful EJ might look like.
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As I recall, DM did go to Whaley to explain the benching. I think they looked at some film together and reviewed some of the calls. We heard stories about how EJ rand the wrong drops and protection calls. Supposedly Whaley agreed with Marrone's decision. EJ did not regress so much as was exposed, imo. He was exposed to JJ Watt and by JJ Watt and it left DM in a tough spot.
I was ok with the benching but not the "Kyle gives us the best chance to win" for the rest of the season all the way to the NE game. I have to wonder if Whaley thought the same thing. Kyle did not produce more after the bye week than what EJ had showed and I wonder how Doug Whaley and the "analytics department" viewed that.
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Two nice plays from last year. One subtle and the other rather spectacular but both using his mobility:
TD to Williams vs. Texans
Pass to Chandler vs. Chargers @ 1:00 minute in:
Rex is right to think that this type of usage of time and space can be very valuable to an offense.
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IF Maroon hadn't thrown a rookie head first into that fast paced hurry up offense (then scrapped it) the results may have been better
OR he got injured is retaliation for the Bills taking out their QB.
I think of all the football I have watched, the normal thing to see that close to the sideline is an upper body shot that forces the runner to step out. I do not think shots below the waist are all common. EJ saw him late and lowered his shoulder but was not anticipating a thigh high blow. The gloating afterwards made it a near certainty that the defender was retaliating for Kiko's legal hit that destroyed the late sliding Hoyer.
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As I see it, it's a style vs. substance argument. Think of a scale with Ditka at one end and Walsh at the other. Many fans and members of the media strongly prefer an emotional, say anything, give a good interview, give 'em Hell and kick some butt kind of coach over the reserved, cerebral, calculating, professoral type. The same preferences exist in politics as well.
My inclination is more toward the Walsh type and I put Rex more toward the Ditka type. Most of the praise I hear from other fans is more for his personality or public persona. Given that he never could fix his offenses after repeated attempts I question just how much substance there is in Rex Ryan's coaching record.
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Assuming he did have a change of heart, why would a new HC/OC with a blank slate and an eye toward the future of the franchise (something that I'd argue Marrone did not this season, for now obvious reasons) want him back knowing that he's now "walked away" twice?
Brett Favre got to play that retirement drama a few times but I don't think Orton can. He has retired twice now so he does not get third chance. Plus, in games not involving the Jets, Kyle gave the Bills nothing beyond what EJ had.
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Stevie Johnson vs. Miami, December of 2012. I tried to find the video but couldn't. Pretty much the same so I figured it would be incomplete and would have been angry if it weren't. Yes, I hold grudges that long. If attempting to make a catch while off balance and falling to the ground, the ball must still be secured after player contacts the ground. Only difference is the ball actually touched the ground during the process so it negated the "recatch."
What I have a problem with is when they invoke this rule in such instances and an action by a defender caused the ball to be dislodged after an element to end the play has occurred (knee down, out-of-bounds, etc.) I think that was what was wrong with the similar call involving Goodwin last year (Bengals game?) He went to the ground, rolled over and the defender dislodged it.
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Some of the best players on the current roster did not make much of an impact as rookies. As a matter of fact, the Bills have traded for and signed free agent players that have made more of an immediate impact than many of their first round picks of the last decade. The draft is over rated as a means to improve a team's roster. It's just, by far, the one that is the most fun about which to talk.
The Texans improved 7 games without Clowney's help. The Bills' potential for improvement in 2015 does not rely much on the draft.
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Ralph wouldn't have paid it out without a fight, you can bet your life. He would hold back the $4M, and tell Camp Marrone that they believe there was tampering, if not breaches of fiduciary duty (undermining Whaley during the season, making decisions based on his own best interests and not the teams', etc.). Ralph would've forced Marrone to sue for the payout and would counter-claim to force a settlement somewhere below $4M; at the very least the league would have to intervene and negotiate a resolution. Ralph was such a dick when he wanted to be...
Ralph reacted badly when he thought he was dealing with someone who was not loyal and/or was downright deceitful. I remember when he tried to get John Butler resigned and Butler balked. I think Ralph sensed a man that was ready to flee. Given the salary cap issues to be dealt with, his "opting out" to San Diego was even more attractive.
What do you think the record will be based on QB + schedule?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by JESSEFEFFER
It's my opinion that EJ was more consistent than what most believe. In his cautious, protect the ball first and try to make a play second style, he was mostly pretty steady. In 8 of his 14 starts he had a tQBR over 50 ( keep throwing this out there to provoke some discussion.) In fact, the 3 of those 8 that the Bills lost were the NE, Cle and Atl games where most would agree that other parts of the team failed in the clutch and not EJ.
In games where the whole offense was losing their battles (Houston, TB) EJ's performance just imploded in the most visible way and he became the focus of the losses.
I see the Bills becoming a team that will win their individual battles all over the field, including the offense. I guess I am counting on this coaching staff to fix the offensive line which must happen to allow any of their QBs be successful.