JESSEFEFFER
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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER
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"See my other post above. So EJ had a QBR (which is not the be all end all btw) above 50 in 6 of his 10 starts as a rookie. Not bad at all. That's why I said he had a decent year for a rookie." Fair point. Many would not concede that. Those are the "EJ has shown nothing!" crowd.
"The issue that you are overlooking is the extent to which he regressed in his second season. There is no statistic to account for the fact that he sucked at every practice and every preseason game all last offseason." The practice point is overstated. I specifically remember statements to the contrary after the joint practices with the Steelers. I specifically remember the offense looking crappy in the preseason. Mike Williams drops a TD pass against the Redskins, Robert Woods slips on his break (after the ball has been released) Fred Jackson stops on a swing route when a defender steps between him and EJ. The offense looked like crap, the o-line was unsettled and committed multiple penalties and they got booed off the field at the half. EJ was 10 of 10 for 131 yds. (against backups mostly) in the second half. When the o-line stopped playing crappy so did EJ. Hmmmm.
"Then he game managed his way to two victories (he looked adequate, sure) and then completely imploded in his next two." 30+ mph winds and the o-line's inability to pick up a line stunt in the SD game and the offense struggled. I would like to find any example of a QB having a "decent" game when sacked, hit or pressured in 40+% of their dropbacks.
"And why would you compare to him to Kyle Orton- who also sucked- as your benchmark?" There is a narrative out there that Kyle Orton saved the season and gave the Bills the better chance to win right up until the last game of the season. Those that believe this tend to be in the ""EJ sucks" camp. That's why he is compared. It doesn't look like the truth to me.
"Look, this is all gonna be over soon. I wish EJ Manuel nothing but the best but I would be absolutely floored if he ended up being our long term solution at QB. I am allowed to have that opinion and be a diehard Buffalo Bills fan simultaneously." Yes and no. It never ends. Ravens fans were not happy with Flacco right up until they won it all. Many then thought his big money contract was unwarranted and would hamstring the franchise. This may be true. I would not be floored if he succeeded to that extent but it is less than probable. Overall, this is a fair statement.
EDIT: And FWIW Orton's overall QBR last year was better than EJ's in either of his seasons. He had no games with a single-digit QBR; Manuel's had 4. And Orton got a 31 against Detroit, which is a game that EJ Manuel simply does not win the way he was playing- and a game that Orton played pretty well in. I'd say this about composite stats: Beware the outliers. Embrace the median and not the mean. The strength of Kyle's composite season stats benefits greatly from kicking the crap out of the Jets twice and I doubt that there is much difference between a 9 and a 19 in the tQBR win probability.
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You are right on man. I remember this one game in 1986 where Joe Montana looked really bad. Therefore I think EJ Manuel is going to be good.
Better Qb, better offense, worse game against the same defense that wrecked EJs 2014 season. The story is that you don't overreact to one bad outcome where the entire offense played crappy.
EJ has 8 of 14 starts with a tQBR at 50+. Orton had 4 of 12 in his 2014 starts. EJ PLAYED DECENTLY (tQBR at 50+ is somewhat arbitrary but fair, imo) IN A MAJORITY OF STARTS AS A BUFFALO BILL, KYLE DID NOT. This is the counter to the Kyle Orton saved the season/gave them the best chance to win argument, the EJ has shown nothing argument, the EJ sucks argument, etc. etc. etc.
So, yeah, I do have a point and might be "right on" and your point is what exactly?
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Will you EJ Sucks people give it a break for a while? say month or more?
repeating EJ sucks over and over won't make it come true.
He's got as good a chance (if not better) to be #1 as Meh, Tyrod and Simms.
ALL GREAT QB's get beat up once in a while. Pointing to 1 game out of 14 is
lunacy!!!I''ll point to 2 bad games in the last 2 seasons for 2 "very good" QB's
Look at Andrew Luck in the playoffs V the Cheatriots in January!
Look at Peyton Manning in the SB V the Seahawks the year before!
I'll add another.
21 of 50 for 195 yds, 2 TDs and 3 Ints with a composite tQBR of 3.2. That was Joe Flacco's December game with against JJ Watt and the Texans with playoff implications attached to the outcome.
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His young receivers needed to be taken to the woodshed and spanked.
EJ was getting beat up against the Texans and Sammy was complaining about a throw (which he dropped) being a foot too low. Three drops by Sammy that game plus two by others while EJ is hit around 18 times with JJ Watt hitting him both legally and illegally 9 or so times. Didn't set right with me.
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I am beginning to think that there is a generational component to how Bills fans view QB development. There is a whole list of HOF QBs that were not very good at the start of their careers. This is no surprise because those of us that were raised without the internet, smart phones and satellite HD television know that this is true of most every human being doing any job. History teaches the value of, if not necessity for, patience.
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His brother Chris, who now works for Bleacher Report, actually really does like the Bills. He's been pretty positive about them the last 2 years. Have heard him on radio and he's written some articles
I saw a B/R podcast where Simms and two others really talked up the Darby pick. One, maybe Simms, had him in their top 20 and said he was the best press/man corner in the draft. Much different that some of the other "experts."
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In statistical terms, I'd say that EJ's supposedly regressed play in his last two games and the o-line's easily demonstrated regression has a correlation coefficient pretty close to 1.000.
The maker of the Youtube videos is biased in that he is acting as an advocate for EJ. Much like defense attorneys (or player agents) that try to create a case for innocence, they can't help but say some pretty dumb things like "He was there but didn't pull the trigger" or "He is innocent but the NFL ran a sting operation."
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Too lazy to look but could it be practice a squad elibility situation?
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Does anyone consider that?
Plenty of opinions from near and far that Geno > EJ ( mostly due to assuming the benching is a sign of greater "suckitude") or that they are mostly the same which I'd highly dipsute. EJ has shown a much greater tendency to give his team a chance to win. I do not beleive the Bills wil have poor QB play in 2015 or should be in a panic. They have 3 chances for someone to stand and deliver decent QB play.
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The odds dropped to 97% success (from the 15) , so no change.
Don't look at 99.5% vs. 97% as insignificant. It's a 600% increase in missed X points. Teams are likely to attempt more 2 point conversions due to 1) having to make up for a missed 1-pointer 2) feeling the payoff over the long term is there or 3) weather conditions making a 33 yarder much less probable than 97% (blustery day at the Ralph, kicking toward the northwest end (fka the scoreboard end.)
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weren't 2 of his "great" games the last game of the year against teams running for the bus?
I will look into that. I do know one was heavily dependent on Justin Rogers being the starting corner for the Bills.
When looking at the composite stats for any QB, look out for the ones that are mostly poor outings skewed by a smattering of outstanding ones vs. those that have a majority of good games that are heavily influenced by a few bad ones.
Btw, last year Kyle Orton had only 4 of his 12 starts with a tQBR at 50+, 2 of those vs. the Jets.
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Geno Smith has had 30 starts. In only 8 of his starts did he break the 50 mark in the tQBR rating. EJ did it in 8 of his 14 starts. Geno did have some great games (4) in his 30 starts but I'd think the the guy that's hit 50+ in 57% of his games has shown more than the one @ 27%.
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Cody Webster (Kirkland, WA LL) and Marcus Dupree were two of the better ones I've seen. These productions can give new life to any story that you thought you knew.
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Context always matters. If the hit occurs in under 2.5 s or after 4s seconds should matter. If the hit was the result of a whiff on an interior block should matter. If the a hit were due to a missed blitz pickup by a back should matter. If the QB holds the ball too long and takes sacks should matter. If the o-line can't make blocks in the open field and the screen game is nonexistent should matter. The 2014 o-line was not an asset. The 2012 line was.
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Better analogy would be a PGA golfer that had illegal golf balls that could be driven and extra 20 yards and then had them doctored up to make them look legal using some counterfeit markings. It takes it to another level when something is done to make something that has the appearance of legality but it has been altered by some sort of subterfuge followed by a coverup.
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So much for winning the offseason.
I guess they'll have to cancel this parade too.
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I predict 2 games. In my nightmare scenario, we lose to the Pats with Jimmy Garapallo as their QB and we are deabating about which loss was worse -- losing to the Steeler backups with the playoffs on the line or losing to the Patriots w/o the QB that we think is 98% of the reason that we contiunue to lose meaningful games to the Patriots? That's a thread I do not want to see.
Personally, I'd rather Brady played in game two so when we do beat them it will feel like the Bills might be poised for a legit run at the division title.
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It could be that Taylor will see the field as a play making, situational player, maybe a Brad Smith role but with a bigger trheat to throw.
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The Bills "drafted" a QB when they signed TT. Who has better odds of making it? A mid-round draft pick or 66a 4 year backup behind an established starter?
One of the strongest attributes of Joe Flacco is that he starts 16 games every year. This means that Taylor is even more of a mystery as one can't really assess how much he may have improved during his 4 professional seasons. There's no meaningful gauge. Those upset that a 2015 QB draft choice was not used on a QB weren't paying attention. Whaley said that they wanted to address all the team needs in the FA period (missed on a tackle) so that they did not need to draft to fill galring needs.
I do not know why people choose to consider drafts isolated from other offseason acquisitons (Mel Kiper, Bill Polian and many Bills fans.) It's seems rather foolish to me.
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Seems Darby was picked for many of the same attributes as Gilbert was last year in that they are coveted for the style of corner that they can play. It will be interesting to see which of them has the better career.
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I am with the OP. Looking at a draft isolated from other off season activities is foolish. What if they did not resign Hughes? Would they then get some great draft grade for picking some highly rated edge rusher?
Getting Tyrod Taylor is the equivalent of any other QB draft acquisition they could have made. He is competing for playing time this year and it seems like they think highly enough of him to give him a 3rd roster spot on their active roster if only for some specially designed, situational plays.
Any QB they might have drafted would have had to be good enough to get EJ or Tyrod cut or bad enough to stay on the practice squad without some other team making him an offer. I still see a problem at tackle but it's not likely that Whaley has given up on upgrading the roster either.
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There are fans of the draft process and those that make their living from just talking and writing about it and I think it's natural to overstate the value of individual draft picks. Make no mistake, there was a time when that was the only way to build a roster so every pick had a value and it was the be all end all of acquring talent. Now, with only 7 rounds, undrafted free agents, restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents, there are other ways to improve a roster. That's the bottom line. Doing whatever it takes to improve one's roster.
What is the value of a BLUE CHIP talent to a team? How many players are there in every draft that are consensus Blue Chip Talents? Is there a realistic discount for future picks compared to current ones?
He was picked to make EJ better. BS, if EJ is cut then does Sammy have to go too?
OBJ had a better year so trading up for Sammy was not necessary. BS, beause you run the draft based on the information you have. Sammy was their #1 prospect so in their mind they were going from 9 to 1. Ebron to Watkins.
I suspect that one injury plagued, rookie year in a pitiful offense is not enough time for an elite talent such as Sammy Watkins to show what he ultimately be.
Platitude: A bird in hand is worth two in the bush especially when you can go to Wegman's and buy another bird,
There is a value to the known, sure commodity and a discount to the unknown, unproven one.
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Just had an electrician at my home that knows Marquise quite well. Unfortunately, its because he has some children who are seriously ill and hospital visits are something Gray does often. He affirmed that Marquise and his lady (not sure if she was a wife or gf) are genuinely decent people. Yes, this stuff matters to me as well. I want the guys that I pull for to be worthy of my support.
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I have been paying attention to the Bills since the early '70s and there has not been a less respected head coach than Hank Bullough. The players openly mocked him. We are talking Talley, Smerlas and Smith here.
EJ Manuel's film session games 1-4
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
They wrecked Joe Flacco and the Ravens in week 16. How does that fit your narrative?