JESSEFEFFER
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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER
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I hope Dombrowski is our punter, just so the announcers can point out that he went to Harvard. That never gets old.
There's always that. Apparently his degree is in economics too. I wonder if he even took the Wonderlic test.
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I keep finding 45.2 gross and 41.2 net for his 2013 year (senior) for Hornsey
So where is the 5+ yard difference to which you alluded? Maybe career numbers?
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In 2013, Moorman finished near the bottom of the NFL in average yards per punt (30th place at 41.2 yards per punt) and in punts inside the 20-yard line (31st place with 16). His average from 2012 to 2013 went down 3.6 yards and his punts inside the 20 fell by six. Now, Dombrowski, averaged 39.99 average at Harvard in his senior year in 2012 which was was enough to earn him All-Ivy League honors and an invite to Jacksonville Jaguars rookie mini-camp last season.
Tom Hornsey booted 80 punts for a 42.7-yard average with a long of 63 and 24 inside the 20-yard line during his first taste of American football in '10. Led the nation and set the school record for number of punts in '11 after booming 95-42-L66-23. In '12, produced 60-43.4-L63-25 and had right knee surgery (torn meniscus) in May. Won the Ray Guy Award in '13 after recording 62-45.2-L79-29 and was the American Athletic Conference's Co-Special Teams Player of the Year. Was a threat during his career on fake punts, converting all four of his attempts with three rushes for 62 yards and completed a 61-yard pass.
Almost all punters, Doc, are UDFA, not all but most. So no surprise Moorman was an UDFA. Your point that he was on a practice squad is valid - aka went unnoticed until the Bills snagged him. Not here but I have read that Dombrowski indeed has yet-to-be-seen talent that can be brought out through pro coaching. But I started this thread asking the question , "why no challenge to Moorman?" Hornsey was just one example of a college player with better stats.
I have his (JD) Sr. stats as a 44.0 avg with a 39.1 net, 11 inside the 20 (out of 42) with 6 touchbacks.
The Aussie appears to be 3 years older which means he was a more mature athlete for the duration of his college years and Dombrowski has likely gotten better (as per the video) since his graduation. At the Kohl kicking camp I linked, JD won their Elite Camp competition with an average of 52 yds and almost 4.9 sec of hang time.
The kid has an NFL leg and to me it's more of a question of how well he can handle ball placement. Back in the days of consecutive 7-9 seasons my brother asked me who I thought was the best player on the Bills. Moorman was my answer to which my brother agreed and added that it was a "sad situation." Brian is no longer an upper echelon punter and Dombrowski could take his job,imo.
One thing for sure is that Nix/Whaley have seriously upgraded the roster and I can't help but think this will be obvious to the entire NFL this season.
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Flip side- why we don't know much about him was because he was a UDFA that only got invited to try out at a single rookie camp last season and wasn't invited back to that or any other camp for a full year before becoming meaningful competition for our starting job.
He had a tryout with the NFL franchise in Washington (where his lack of experience as a place holder was a big reason why they didn't sign him) and the kicking combine held in Arizona which I knew nothing of prior to reading this:
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I'm sorry kdiggz if I sound obnoxious here - but I thought I was clear that by "challenged" I meant a real challenge. The Harvard kid averaged 5+ less yards net per kick. The Punter I mentioned won the top punting award . My question was about quality of the challenge. His stats certainly suggest he would be someone of value in camp.
One only needed to look at the roster to see the Harvard kid. I then looked up his numbers and , IMO, they were mediocre.
Did you check out the link I gave above in post #5? On that webpage there is a video of some of his Kohl's camp punts in a semi competition with Marquette King of the Raiders. Also, in the section ................
Kohl's Workouts Attended
National Elite Camp - (Free Agent/College athletes) - July 18-20, 2013 Results
Tampa, FL - Pro/College Training Camp - Jan. 27-28, 2013
......... the results link is to the stats he compiled while winning their competition/evaluation. Arkansas punter Dylan Breeding (Redskins FA signing) came in 2nd. About 25% of his Harvard kicks were inside the 20 and his net average is close to 40. He is definintely, imo, a challenger for Moorman's roster spot.
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The kid has some talent. Here's my link of interest (watch the video) maybe it's the same as previous post via a different route.
http://kohlskicking.com/nfl-profile/jacob-dombrowski
If he can handle the directional kicking aspect, I think there's a great chance he'll win the job.
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I read somewhere that he was the first Titans QB to post 3 consecutive games with a 100+ passer rating. The Titans managed to win only one of those. My thought was always that he was a better QB than he was as a passer. It's no coincidence that the best football many of his teammates will ever play was with Fitz as their QB. This applies to CJ, Freddie, SJ, Chandler and ther rest of their noname receiving corp, and guys like Urbik, Levitre, and Pears. In situations that require him to totally rely on has passing ability, he is more than likely going to be the first to fail, which is often in a clutch setting such as NE II and the Titans games in 2012.
Yes, he can be a gunslinger in a shootout but "Boot Hill" is most likely his final resting place. QBs that are truly terrible never even make it into the shootout. I like the guy and I think he is the type of QB that can be a good template to build an offense around until someone more talented can step in and take over. If he has some success with the Texans, I'm ok with that, as long as it's not against the Bills.
Note to Andre Johnson: Fitz will force the ball to you enough for you to have a good season. I doubt SJ ever sees 1,000+ yards again.
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The Bills only lost 12 which is not bad and probably closer to middle of the pack. 7 of the 32 were credited to Leodis which seems to indicate that they are counting a muffed punt as a fumble, (of which he only lost 1.) I don't recall him having a problem handling the ball but, then again, I wouldn't think much of a mishandled punt that he dropped at his own feet, picked up and made a return.
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Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, maybe Carson Palmer. Teams move on from veteran QBs with nice NFL resumes all the time. Maybe it's injury, or salary cap numbers, or a new GM wanting to start over. Before there was only the draft in terms of building a roster. Now, due to the salary cap and free agency, there are other options.
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Also, consider this. With the 41st pick the Bills traded down to 44 and got the extra 5th. These became Kouwandjio and Richardson. These two players give them a chance to have a better starting offensive line this year along with better depth. In this regard having the 4th best OT prospect this year is better that the 1st or 2nd OT next year. The "bird in the hand > two in the bush" philosophy.
I prefer this one: The value of a nail now versus a box of them later:
For want of a nail the shoe was lost,for want of a shoe the horse was lost,for want of a horse the knight was lost,for want of a knight the battle was lost,for want of a battle the kingdom was lost.So a kingdom was lost—all for want of a nail.-JLA: The Nail
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Picks in future drafts are generally discounted. Maybe its better to say that picks in a current draft have more value. Whaley obviously believes it as he wanted to retain their 2014 picks and managed to keep them out of the trade.
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I think many people overestimate the value of a 1st round pick. because they overestimate the value of the draft. Salary cap restraints mean that free agency is a much more legitimate part of building a team. Less money devoted to rookie contracts = more money for free agents. Due to the way contracts are designed, some pretty good players get cut during training camp.
Yeah, the Bills blew the Maybin pick but I think most would agree that trading for Hughes pretty much negated that mistake. Hughes was everything they could have hoped Maybin would be.
Mel Kiper has made a career out of covering the NFL draft and having opinions about it. It's probably a VERY lucrative one considering that there is no real penalty fro being wrong, unlike the real scouts and GMs. I think the spectacle of the draft is such that fans do the same.
This is all to say that surrendering a 1st round pick is not a franchise killer. There are other means to getting a new QB for 2015 other than a top 10 pick, if they so desire and the new QB will have Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin and maybe Mike Williams to throw to and what will probably be an upper echelon o-line to protect him.
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If you look around the league by my calculation 22 of the 32 QBs starting will be 1st rounders. There are a few more that are early 2nds (Dalton, Kaepernick, Brees). While everyone loves to point to Brady being a 6th rounder or Wilson in the 3rd, the reality is that it is very difficult to find a starting QB in the mid 2nd round or later. Yes, you can always trade back up but you will not trade the assets to land Mariota, Hundley or Winston (if they remain the top candidates).
IMO this team wants to win now and if EJ doesn't work out it will be a veteran that they will be chasing. Some names that I threw out in another thread to look out for: Cutler, Romo, Roethlisberger, Bradford, Rivers, Alex Smith, Matt Ryan and even Foles (Chip Kelly is nuts). Some are more realistic than others (Bradford, Smith, Cutler or Romo seem to be the most plausible).
But you are forgetting that this was an all-in move by the Bills so if EJ fails, Sammy Watkins, no matter how good he is, can no longer be on the roster and the next QB they bring in won't be able to throw to him. I think I heard that somewhere.
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Then there are the <1% of "fans" that would rather be right than see their team succeed. Some psych student should do a thesis on them.
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It also points out that EJ's play wasn't really what cost them the close games. EJ played poorly when the rest of the team was getting handled (this is true for most all QBs) and he was rarely the guy that made the critical mistake that prevented the team from winning the close games. It was often some critical drops/fumbles, poor special teams coverage or defensive collapse that ultimately did them in. It might be a good sign that with all that was lacking in EJ's game, the games were not ultimately lost due to his gaffes.
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http://www.syracuse....t_river_default
Buffalo Bills have already won at the 2014 NFL Draft with the trade for Sammy Watkins
By Brent Axe | baxe@syracuse.com
Follow on Twitter
on May 09, 2014 at 7:00 AM
Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins had just returned to the visiting sideline at the Carrier Dome after finishing off a 91-yard touchdown, the second-longest play from scrimmage in Clemson football history, against Syracuse when a media colleague in the press box turned to me and asked "what do you think of that?"
"I'll tell you what I think," I responded in about as much time as it took to inhale the breath to form the words, "that guy would look good in a Buffalo Bills uniform."
That was back in October of 2013.
Be careful what you wish for kids, because you just might get it. Because it is May 9, 2014 and Sammy Watkins is a Buffalo Bill.
The Buffalo Bills did something Thursday night during the 2014 NFL Draft that was, frankly, something the Bills normally don't do in trading with the Cleveland Browns to acquire the fourth pick and draft Watkins.
They went for it.
"We went in to this draft saying we were going to be bold and we made a bold move," Bills CEO Russ Brandon said Thursday night.
In the (edited for a family website) words of Ellis Boyd 'Red' Redding from the movie "The Shawshank Redemption:"
"Get busy livin' or get busy dying. That's darn right."
The Bills got busy livin' on Thursday after 14 years (and counting) spent busy dying without a birth in the playoffs.
"We thought it was a calculated risk and a risk we were willing to take," Bills general manager Doug Whaley said.
Some more Shawshank wisdom. That movie is on all the time and I have to watch at least some part of it at each chance.
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Many draft pundits claim that this trade was poorly done by the Bills and that they gave up too much to move up. The actual difference in points between #9 and #4 is {1800-1350) = 450 points. The Bills swapped the first round picks and in addition gave up the 2015 first and fourth round picks. How should we evaluate the cost for next year’s picks.? The usual assumption is that the Bills would finish the 2015 season with the same draft position, so using that criteria and the “standard assessment” of discounting next year’s picks by 50% of their value, then the Bills spend 717 points in order to move up 450 points. A bad deal. The view of Whaley is that the Bills will have a much better record next year, so the deal is not so bad.
Here is the cost of next year’s 1st and 4th round picks [@ 50% discount] compared to possible draft slots that the Bills might attain next year.
2015 Finish
......……value of 1st & 4th
.......................…..overpayment
.......................................................overpayment in terms of a draft pick
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9…….....717…..…....267…………….top 3rd round pick
10……....691…..…....241
11……...655….....….215
12……...639….....…189………………middle 3rd round pick
13……...613……....163
14.……..587….....…137
15……...561…….....111……………..top 4th round pick
16…..….535……......85
17…..…509…….......59……………..~ middle 4th round pick
18..…….483……......33……………….middle 5th round pick
19……...470….....….20………………middle 5th round pick
20……...456…....……6……………….lower 7th round pick
21……...430…..…..-20
22…...…419……....-31
23……...408……...-42
24……..397……....-53
25……..386…....…-64
26……..375…...….-75
27….….365…….....-86
28……..354……....-96
29……..344.…….-107
30……..333..……-117
31……..323…..…-128
32……..317…….-133
So for the Bills to break even on the draft value chart, they would have to get to the #20th best record (Cardinals) with about a 10-4 record- win 6 more games. If they go 8-8 and match Pittsburg #15 spot, then the overpayment is a pick at the top of the 4th round.
These are not gamebreakers- if the Bills improve their record. Another question is whether it was a good idea to give up a chance to draft an extra player in the first and third round next year. I don't think so.
If the Bills had the first pick in this draft apparently they would have taken Sammy. So that 1800 in the formula could be a 3000 or 2600 from the perspective of how they valued the player. They paid a market price based on where they took him. So if they evaluated him correctly then they made out fine.
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Manziel seems like a cocky punk.... maybe that's wrong but that's how I see him
He makes my skin crawl
I have the same opinion and I figured out why. Have you seen the movie ROB ROY? He looks like Tim Roth's Archibald Cunningham. A truly despicable, cocky little runt that made my skin crawl. I will never know him so in the absence of any real familiarity with him he becomes Archibald Cunningham in my mind. Maybe by the time the Bills play the Browns I'll have figured out how to post a Manziel/Roth picture for the look-a-like thread.
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I have read only 3 pages of this so my input may be redundant. But.......
1) Nix said prior that he wanted to have a QB inplace prior to his retirement.
2) Nix said that the QB class was better than many were saying and that they had "identified" a player worthy of their pick.
3) Post draft Whaley was talking to a media group? season ticket holders? Bills Backers? inside a suite at the Ralph and raved about EJ's having the "it" factor and how he stood out when he entered a room. He also joked that if he was wrong about EJ then he'd be among the group in the near future rather than speaking to it-- clearly meaning that he expects his job to be riding on the pick.
4) Stories post draft mention how thoroughly EJ was scouted, including speaking to a caretaker at FSU's stadium. If I recall correctly . a group went to visit FSU that included Brandon and Marrone.
This was very much an organizational effort as they will all succeed or fail based on their collective belief in this guy. If they are willing to stake what is likely to be their professional lives on him then I'm ok with giving him at least 3 years.
EJ's rookie year (10 games ) was much like Joe Flacco's ( 16 games ) aside from the missed time. That's normally what rookies look like regardless of whether they ultimately succeed or not.
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Much of what became the "Bickering Bills" label was the result of big egos, both young and old, deflecting blame and pointing fingers. Jim Kelly was point man for a lot of this. On his show, Thurman identified "Quarterback" as one of the problem areas on the team which , I think, spoke to this issue.
One of the things I liked about Fitz was that he shouldered all the blame, warranted or not. He rightly believed that doing so was his responsibility as a leader and that it would allow his teammates to play without the burden having been "called out." It takes a lot of emotional maturity to do this.
Mother-in-law to newlywed daughter-in-law: "I think my son should really start dating again. In fact, bigamy is a realistic option. I have recommended it to him."
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It is unprecedented to draft 1st round QBs in back to back years. For TG to suggest that he thought this was a good idea is an insult in the 2nd degree. For EJ to sarcastically offer a "thank you" to him for his opinion as he was being pried away was about the best response possible. It's almost like handling a heckler while speaking in public. There are very few great options.
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I am not a fan of pass catchers with abnormally high drop rates as drops often are the equivalent of turnovers. I prefer a large TE talent that can be an asset in goal line / short yardage run formations (where the Bills stunk and Marrone said they had a plan to improve.) Said TE should be a great blocker and excel at catching the ball above his head against man coverage underneath.
This does not sound like Ebron to me.
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Well worth reading, especially vis a vis the Bills' commitment to Manuel:
Words of wisdom from Mike Holmgren. I just where that wisdom was when the Browns drafted a 28 year old QB in the first round.
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I like the NFL network. They have commentators that can explain why a pick was made even when they don't personally agree with it. ESPN guys have to protect their egos to the point of having a tantrum.
Steve Tasker - what could have been?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Steve Tasker did not play much WR at Northwestern. He was always viewed as a special teamer and if he wasn't so great at that he probably might have gotten more opportunity as a WR. In many ways, Steve was a better football talent than Welker is. Better hands (wouldn't be surprised if Welker has an above average drop%), better at beating blocks/tackling, physically stronger and if you were an olb you certainly did not want Steve Tasker blocking down on you because he would light you up.
Everything Steve had that made him great as a special teams ace would have translated well to making him an exceptional slot receiver, imo.