JESSEFEFFER
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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER
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I caught the video feed from the U Mass website just before UB blocked the punt and scored. More notable imo is that all 3 wins are with red shirt freshman QB Joe Licata as the starter. He may become a MAC star QB. With all the programs full of 2 star recruits they tend to rise and fall in the MAC on the relative strength of their QBs.
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Miami, Indy, Jacksonville and St. Louis. Three of these are home and only Indy has a winning record. I think the Bills are trending up, both offensively and defensively, and I think they will win these. Not that 4-0 is probable, but it is realistic enough that it is worth discussing.
That would make them 7 and 6 and back in contention. These teams are all flawed much like the Bills but if the D can just get to average against some teams that are in the bottom 12 in scoring, the Bills offense is healthy enough to finish strong. It starts tomorrow night.
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I suspect that there was significant outrage in the Bills locker room over the cheapshot Spikes gave Chandler in the first meeting. He went out of his way to launch into Scott's head while running beside him under the guise of throwing a block. It wasn't even close to being a case where he targeted the right spot and missed.
It may be a coincidence, but Chandler disappeared from the offense for a few games afterward.
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This is a get the ball out quick, spread offense. Fitz is both aware and decisive and sacks are kept low. He does not routinely seek to buy time to make a play. The third pick in the 1st Pats game would be one example with a bad outcome.
Many of Fitz's worst plays were tied to Erik Pears' struggles. The guy has a leg/hip/groin injury and could not anchor. He was often beat off the snap or just driven right back into his lap. Designing some space/time into some of the passing plays by rollouts, boots, and max protects would be a good idea, IMO. Creating some doubt in the defenders' minds about from where and when the ball may come out would be a plus. Having Hairston in for a gimpy Pears may allow it to happen.
By the way, the man will take a beating in the name of executing the play, often just before he gets wrecked. He is no coward.
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Top tier money?
I think it needs to be said for the 10,000th time - Fitz is paid like a middle of the pack QB. The final number sure sounds like a lot but the Bills can actually get out of a lot of it if they decide to cut him after this season.
As a % of the cap, Ryan's contract is for less than the 5yr/$25 million deal that Rob Johnson got.
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Has anybody seen how bad the eagles oline is? Dude doesn't have a second to throw on any given play. There's a reason McCoy isn't doing well on the ground this year either
It's strange how being unaware and indecisive can make an o-line look bad or how little credit a QB will get when he is aware and decisive and helps hide o-line deficiencies. It's Johnson vs. Flutie 101.
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It could happen. A major bye week reset. Sort of like the Raven's game in 2010 when everyone was convinced it would be a blowout but the Bills were an OT Shawn Nelson "lift and separate" fumble from getting a shootout win. There isn't any other decent 2012 team that I have seen play less over the last couple of years than the Houston Texans but I know they made Flacco look really bad last week. No doubt Wade Philips can coach defense.
Getting Glenn and Urbik back would be a big lift if they've recovered enough. Competant o-line play is huge on the road. Maybe the defense we were hoping for shows up. The Titans game was a bad, bad loss. The worst of the season, IMO, as far as giving away one they should have banked and putting them off track. Now they need to get one that we all think they won't. Winning the turnover battle along with some great special teams play are likley mandatory.
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I would like to think that making the playoffs would validate the current management team and be a sign of an improving roster. Fitzpatrick and the defense will have to perform better to allow this to happen as neither of them gave winning efforts in the 3 losses. There is a very real chance that this can happen because it happens for a few teams every year. So I choose to be happy that they are 3 and 3, still in the mix and still relatively healthy. So why not try to enjoy the rest of the season and see what happens.
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I was buying the training camp reports about McKelvin performing well covering the slot receivers. I thought it translated well into the preseason games and I could envsion him being a better option to cover a guy like Welker. Then came the Jets game and that was the end of that. Still, his worst play was with his back turned and trying to find the ball which is the situation in which he often fails but he could succeed in most of the other coverage scenarios. For some reason the Bills think otherwise.
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Some teams get stronger as the season goes on and others get weaker. I think the Bills have a good chance to be in the first group for once. They can still become the "dominate the lines, run the ball well, stick the ball in the endzone, get after the passer" team they were designed to be. This is looking like a 9 and 7 wildcard year in the AFC to me, but 10 wins is still a realistic end.
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In defense of Kyle, consider how he basically throws the blocker while executing his swim move and doing a 90o pivot. This is why he lost his balance, imo. He's probably thinking that he did nothing wrong except succumb to the laws of physics.
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If this ranking is all an opinion about "QB futures," much like a stock analysis, then I could respect it more. Probably not agree with it, but I'd be able to see where it's coming from. If it's about their production and their ability to help their team win in the here and now, then this ranking is way off base. There is a certain failure rate with every QB. I see it in every game I have ever watched. If you don't look at both the successes and failures and attempt to see how they balance out, then I won't respect your opinion. Until Fitz squanders a good/great defensive effort with some poor overall play, I will still believe he will help more than hurt their cause this year. We have 75% of the season left to see how the story develops.
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The 4 Fitz picks didn't really hurt that much amazingly enough. Missed field goals resulting from them and the one underthrow was like a net 38 yard punt. When the last two came it was pretty much game over anyways as they were down 35-21 or worse and were not even defending as well as a speed bump. Desperate times call for desperate plays. Now the two fumbles which sandwiched in between the picks and occurred when up 14-7 and down 28-21 were huge point swing, game changers.
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I'm with you Joe. I felt the same way. The play didn't look very bad. He got hit an fell on his shoulder....a play that happens all the time. It didn't look (to me anyway) like he hit the ground extremely hard or awkwardly. As a bills fan, I figured he broke his collarbone, because injuries always ruin our seasons. But the play itself, didn't look very devastating. It's a shoulder sprain. I expect him to play on Sunday. And play well.
Go bills!!!
I think it was the defender landing on him with the full weight of his body while CJ was in a vulnerable position that did the deed.
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Years ago I had a similar injury ("sprung" AC joint) from an outfield collision. I later hit a home run during the game although I could not raise my arm above chest high. Point is that there are probably some arm motions that are not a problem while others might be impossible. Just a theory but it could explain how he could be practicing and thinking he could play.
It would be nice if both Spiller and Jackson were both announced to the crowd during pregame introductions.
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Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the BEST QBs at avoiding sacks while Cutler is one of the Worst. This is a tough thing to quantify but it certainly has no effect on ypa or completion %. Personally, I think I would measure it as some ratio of QB hits to sacks, a measure of "almost sacks" to real ones becasue defenders can't hit a QB when more than one step away from the QB attempting a throw.
This one hidden, somewhat unquantifiable, talent/skill that Fitz has, explains how Fitzpatrick loses to Cutler on the traditional QB passer rating but evens out on ratings like those done by Football Outsiders and the related ESPN Total QBR. If their turnover stats are similar and Cutler is 3 or 4 times more liklely to take a sack when pressured, this becomes a huge difference between the two, It's was really the biggest point of the Flutie vs, Johnson debate.
I read on one sight that Fitz has only been hit 5 times this year. This is off the charts good and it is partially a byproduct of the GM/talent evaluators, the HC offensive philosophy, an involved o-line coach and a QB that has allowed the offense to function while the ofensive line was developing.
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To revisit this debate, here is an analysis of Cutler provided by a Bears' fan with some experience as a QB coach at the college and high school levels. It's rather technical but it's an interesting breakdown of what is missing from Cutler's game and offers an explanation about why he might be forever flawed. It comes from Football Outsiders as well.
When I read it I thought it fit in very well with this discussion. Here is the link:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2012/what-wrong-jay-cutler
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Fred's injury was to his left knee, right?
In this tweeted pic from today's practice the brace is on his right knee.
What's going on here?
He took the shot on the left thigh but his right leg was anchored and was then flexed more.
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If the Bills win it will be due to a KO type victory from the line play. Winning in the trenches is still a formula for consistent success, imo. By the way, Football Outsiders has them in the top 10 if you appreciate their approach to analysis. Here is the link:
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Once again, more evidence that Nix, Whaley and Gailey do have a plan and are executing it.
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I am sure that there are others that are more "in the know" than me, but if I recall correctly, I thought the transfer was all about a squabble over some disciplinary action Gronkowski faced at Williamsville North that affected his eligibility for some sport there. It may have been only for a spring sport though. He was on the national radar during his junior year and was already listed as a 4 or 5 star recruit. There was no need to further showcase his talent to enhance his offers and there was no need to disrespect the high school football played in NYS. Sure it was better competition in Pa but he already had the interest of all the major FBS programs as it was.
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When Fitz drops back to pass and we start to watch the pocket collapse, do you hold your breath?
The point is Fitz scares the hell out of me too. He could throw a dart and hit a guy barely open, or throw it 5 feet over a guys head right into the arms of a safety.
I think the Bills are one player away from being a darn good team, maybe even a Super Bowl team. It just so happens that player is the most important one.
I like Fitz as a guy and even as a football player. It is not his fault the Bills are trying to make him a starting qb. He is trying like heck to be that. The guy has character and wants to succeed, but sometimes that i snot enough. Especially in professional sports. He would be an exceptional back up, probably the next Frank Reich. Unfortunatly this team has no 'Jim Kelly'. Until we get our next Jim Kelly, we are going to see th esame thing. I also think we have enough of a sample size to form opinions on Fitz at this point.
My hope is the oline stays healthy and as dominating as they have been. The Bills can run the ball and Fitz can make some timely throws when needed. He also learns that throwing it out of bounds or away is not a bad thing.
The D gels more and more and becomes great.
At this point in the season we have no clue yet who the great teams are. Not after this last weekend. 49ers get beat and beat good by the Vikes. Seriously?? So who knows really. But if any of us are waiting for Fitz to magically turn into the next Eli Manning, i think we are going to be very disappointed.
Take a look at Eli's career. It took over 4+ seasons and 50+ starts for Eli to become ELI MANNING. Even then, he threw 25 picks in 2010, his 6th year as their starter. Do not think that the reality of today is the way it's always been nor is it the way it is destined to be. Bad things happen to all QBs when pressured and some of them have no game to handle it and they will get chased from the NFL. Fitz can read pressure, adjust protection, take hits and avoid sacks. He has a game that can withstand, if not beat, pressure.
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Was the cheering by Browns fans when CJ went out as bad as it sounded/looked on TV, or was it just those douches by the tunnel where he was being wheeled in?
It was just as likely that Bills fans were calling out to CJ as there was a higher density of us near the Bills' tunnel. I know, I was one of them. Just an acknowledgement of how he has elevated his game and a hope for a speedy recovery. He looked very down as he was carted off and he needed some shout outs, imo.
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Fitzpatrick is a far better quarterback than he is a passer. Some will understand this and probably agree and others won't get it at all.
Fitz Total QBR For 2012
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
The TQBR by ESPN was developed with some assistance from Football Outsiders. The funny thing is that the Football Outsiders QB ratings have Fitz at 17th and the TQBR as of week 10 had him at 27th. I recall the TQBR to have been claimed to be more heavily weighted to clutch play and the Pats(II) and Titans games would therefore be big negatives in what was otherwise pretty decent QB performance. Fitz has to be more clutch the rest of the way assuming that the defense is trending more toward average quality. The remaining games should be closer and he will have to produce in the clutch. IMO, this has been the biggest negative of his tenure here.
The finish to the Titans game might hang around Fitz's neck like skunk on a rope. It's tough to make up for a collapse like that in a home game against an "inferior" opponent.