JESSEFEFFER
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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER
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Ryan Fitzpatrick was objectively better than Sanchez and Cutler last year (two of the "final four" QBs.) This is without much help from the defense, playing behind one of the most inexperienced offensive lines (being pressured on over 20% of dropbacks,) and not having had the benefit of the majority of training camp reps. He obviously had problems in cruchtime, ala Jim Kelly in 1986, but I, for one, think he will be even better in 2011.
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The reason I like Kaepernick is he has a lot of the qualities of a Cam Newton but at a lower price and appears to be a standup young man who has also done well academically. Strong arm, very mobile and from what I've seen is pretty tough, set several NCAA records at Nevada, and supposedly tested well for quick release\decision making and accuracy that was even better than guys like Peyton manning (according to an article by bleacherreport.com). He also had a very good TD to interceptions ratio all four years and his completion percentage increased every year up to 64.9% in 2010 while his sack totals steadily declined (better decision making?).
His stock is rising, not based on hype but on numbers, character, performance, and value. I know th WAC isn't as tough as say the SEC but that's why he isn't a 1st rd pick. Anything can happen but this young man would be my choice in rd 3 or if it sounds like he won't be there then, rd 2. Let him learn from Gailey and Fitzy and he could be dangerous. I'm gonna watch this kid and see where he goes whether we take him or not.
I've been wanting to look into him more. He's rather intriguing. One impression I had was that he looked skinny but then at the combine he looked more solid. The school shouldn't really matter. If Delaware, Alcorn State, Marshall, and Miami of Ohio can produce first rounders then Nevada shouldn't be what "devalues" him.
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There may be zero history of the Bills ever trading out of a top 5 pick, and that was not exactly my point here. My point is that this past decade the Bills have always tried to "out-think" themselves with their first picks of the draft, be it a 1st rounder or lower if they had no 1st rounder, and last year was no exception. This year there are so many great players the Bills seem to have to choose from at #3, that the only way they could screw this up is if they trade down into the 20's for an extra pick. And that's why I predict Nix to do just that! Take a look for yourself if you have such a hard time "getting the post".
2010: C.J. Spiller #9 Overall. Two picks later, the 49ers chose OT Anthony Davis who started all 16 games for them. They needed a tackle, they drafted a good one, and now he starts. Wow, real rocket science there, eh? Well, not Buddy - oh no - Spiller was the "best athlete on his board" so while C.J. spent the year trying to figure out how to follow NFL blockers on a simple off tackle running play, the Bills once again sucked at offensive right tackle!
2009: Aaron Maybin #11 overall. Go ahead and defend that pick. While you are at it, check out Brian Orakpo's stats - chosen 2 picks after Maybin by the Redskins.
2008: Leodis McKelvin #11 overall. He' still working on becoming a good starter in the NFL, but Ryan Clady, drafted one spot lower, has been a starting OT for the Broncos since his first game as a rookie and once again, the Bills still suck at RT to this day.
2007: Marshawn Lynch #12 overall - there are so many great players taken after Lynch in that draft it makes me sick to even waste my time writing them down.
2006: Donte Whitner #8 overall. Why?
2006: John McGargo #22 overall. Words cannot express how bad this pick was.
2005: Roscoe Parrish #55 overall. (No 1st round pick). Not a terrible pick for a late 2nd rounder, too bad they didn't take Vincent Jackson taken after Parrish instead though.
2004: Lee Evans #13 overall. Good pick.
2004: J.P. Lost-man #22 overall. Really really really bad pick.
2003: Willis McGahee #23 overall. Comical waste of a 1st round draft pick.
2002: Mike Williams #4 overall. The biggest bust of all?
2001: Nate Clements #21 overall. Good pick.
Summation; TWO good picks in 10 years of 1st round drafting. That's why I "have my doubts."
1987 Bills trade down with Houston from #3 to #8 and get Conlan. The Oilers take Highsmith and the Bills get Odomes in the 2nd with their extra pick. This kind of trade always make sense if you have any faith in your ability to put a draft board together. The money has gotten so big at the top of the draft that teams are unwilling to trade up for the right to pay some college kid 40+ million. Maybe a realistic rookie wage scale can change that.
Polian also traded for Bennett later because he would not sign with the Colts. It was the 3 way deal with the Rams that involved Eric Dickerson, Greg Bell and some draftpicks being exchanged. Mckellar, Ballard, Seals and Leonard Smith (Brandon trade) were acquired from this years' draft assets. Great draft for the Bills and it started with a move down trade.
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I could easily make the case that Fitzpatrick had a similar year to that of Eli Manning and a better one than Jay Cutler. Some consider those guys to be franchise types. They are certainly paid that way. It's tough to know how much better he can be since my crystal ball is not working lately, but players do get better as they spend time in an offensive system along with their teammates. There are many examples of QBs whose careers took off after 30 to 50 starts and 4 or 5 years in the league. I am willing to wait and see if Fitzpatrick can have that kind of career evolution. He has the leadership skills, toughness, maturity, and smarts to do the job. He just has to make the offense more productive.
That all that being said, I do think that he had a good enough season to be a legitimate plan A but that having a realistic plan B would also be prudent. The fact that Brohm was not tendered tells me the Bills may be thinking that way but this does not equate to a top of the draft pick. Those guys have to play before they earn the job because they "need to develop" and the franchise has to "find out about them." The QB's at the top of the 1st round become plan A from day one and it more often leads to 3 years of futile, and often ugly, football.
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In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such:
Chad Pennington
Mike Vick
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Matt Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow.......
Not sure what your working definition of "franchise" might be but I am not so sure that Sanchez, Bradford, or Stafford have shown enough to know which path their careers will take. They were drafted high, got paid a ton of money, and will start when healthy. The same was true of Carr, Harrington, Boller, Leftwich, et. al.
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2nd Rounders
Drew Brees, Purdue
Quincy Carter, Georgia
Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington
Kellen Clemens, Oregon
Travaris Jackson, Alabama St.
Kevin Kolb, Houston
John Beck, BYU
Drew Stanton, Michigan
Brian Brohm, Louisville
Chad Henne, Michigan
Pat White, West Virginia
Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
3rd Rounders:
Giovanni Carmazzi, Hofstra
Chris Redman, Louisville
Josh McCown, Sam Houston St.
Dave Ragone, Louisville
Chris Simms, Texas
Matt Schaub, Virginia
Charlie Frye, Akron
Andrew Walter, Arizona St.
David Greene, Georgia
Charlie Whitehurst, Clemson
Brodie Croyle, Alabama
Trent Edwards, Stanford
Kevin O’Connell, San Diego St.
Colt McCoy, Texas
Armanti Edwards, Appalachian State
Since 2000, there have only been 2 clear cut starters that happen to be Pro Bowl players, and one potentially decent starter in Kolb. The jury is still out on McCoy and Clausen and whether or not they can become franchise guys. And if Brees were drafted in this years draft at his draft position in 2000, he would have been a 1st round pick because of expansion. The odds of finding your "franchise" QB in these 2 rounds is a paltry 8.3%.
In that same time period the QBs drafted in the 1st round are as such:
Chad Pennington
Mike Vick
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Matt Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Of the 28 QBs selected in the 1st round since 2000, 14 of them are franchise guys, with the jury still being out on Tebow. Obviously, most starters and "franchise" QBs are found in the 1st round, but as a trend, it appears that selecting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round is a waste of a draft pick.
Which leads me to everyone talking about Fitzpatrick being a QB that could get better given how much he improved last year, but the stats don't lie:
2008-09: 21 starts. 20 TDs, 19 INTs, 58.1% completion rate, 5.8 YPC.
2010: 13 starts. 23 TDs, 15 INTs, 57.8 completion rate, 6.8 YPC
Other than a slight bump in TDs, due in large part to the Bills offense only producing six(6) f'cking RUSHING TDs, and a YPC stat that ebbs and flows (for comparisons sake Colt McCoy had a 7.1 YPC last year...do you think he will maintain that over his career?), why are we heralding Fitz, who still has a career 12-23 record, as a guy that can lead this franchise for years to come?
Don't get me wrong...I think Fitz is a good place holder while we groom the potential "franchise" guy that the Bills select with the 3rd overall pick in this year's draft, but if people think he is going to be anything beyond that, they need to get their heads checked.
Of your list, it can be easily shown that Fitzpatrick had a better year than Cutler, Sanchez, and Bradford. His quality of play was very similar to Eli Manning. All this is said without really looking at the quality of the supporting cast that any of these guys works with. Ryan took a big step forward last year and there are many historical examples of QBs that made such an improvement to their game at similar points in their careers. I am not willing to say what a player's limit is nor would I choose to use a word like "never." For those that think, speak and write that way about the future, I say good luck with that because history tends to make you look foolish.
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Selected 24th overall, Rodgers does not apply to my comment.
"In August 2005 at age 21, Rodgers agreed to a reported five-year, $7.7 million deal that included $5.4 million in guaranteed money and had the potential to pay him as much as $24.5 million if all incentives and escalators were met." He was cheap enough to be patient with.
Rivers is more applicable. He was taken at #4 and he did sit two years.
Flutie/Johnson is very applicable. The flawed veteran that can lead the team vs. the younger, unproven, higher paid QB with supposed upside. Why was Flutie benched against the Titans? The pressure to play the higher paid guy will eventually trump any need to play the guy that gives a team the best chance to win. So much so that it will usually happen before they are ready.
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Regardless of what Fitz is now or what he can or will become in the future, he has a shot in 2011 to define the course of his career. In the history of the NFL there have been many QBs that became decent to great at his current experience level. We might have been witnessing his career light coming on in 2010. Or maybe his ceiling is being just a competent caretaker, as some suggest. I don't claim to know either with certainty so I say it would be wise to keep an open mind.
I do know this. If a QB is taken at 3, the economics dictate that they start long before they are ready. Laugh at Flutie/Johnson but a replay is likely. It's Ground Hog's Day all over again. Guys that get 40+ million guaranteed don't sit the bench while they learn. They learn on the job and the play of their teammates suffers as a result. They won't be too patient while waiting for some young QB to put their game together and learn to be a leader. If he proves to be unworthy of his high draft status, that's another 3 years down the drain.
Fitz was hit or sacked about 9 times per game. His combination of presnap reads, protection calls, and quick decisions/ releases gave the offense a chance to move the chains. Taking as few sacks as he did was not an accident. It was a deliberate adjustment to his game. He'd do whatever he could to get rid of the ball and avoid a loss. An intentional grounding call is just a spot foul and loss of down (sounds like a sack to me) so why not just get rid of it and see if the referee will allow it? If Fitzpatrick had taken 7 more sacks instead, his comp% hits 60. He was about 10 to 20 sacks short of what would be normal given the number of hits he took. Trading incompletions for sacks HURTS a QB's passer rating (lower comp% and YPA.) There is nothing in the formula that rewards a QB for avoiding sacks.
The same is true for getting the ball past the sticks on 3rd and long. It's a lower percentage play but the chances of actually converting it are better. There is not a reward in the passer rating formula for being a risk taker on 3rd and long. As Bills fans we have seen our share of ball holding, afraid to pull the trigger, run out of bounds for a 4 yard loss, dump it off to a stationery receiver on 3rd and long, QB play. I, for one, was sick of it. Fitz played a style of game that made his o-line and receivers look good, certainly not bottom-of-the-barrel as we were lead to believe before season. It's a style that helped his team but hurt his rating.
There were two areas of his game that were clearly deficient, IMO. Fumbles on running plays (get the yards but always protect the ball!) and in that 20 yard dead zone that exists between midfield and the high% field goal range. Fitz lead many important, late game drives, that died in this area. It happened so often that I would call it a trend. It's those failures that give his detractors their best ammunition.
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If a running back's role in the offense is just carrying the ball, then, yes there are a multitude of guys that can do that and average 4 yards a carry. To consistently produce explosive 50+ yard plays takes a special talent and that's what the Bills thought they were getting. Time will tell, but I beleive that Chan Gailey has plans for Spiller and we barely got a glimpse of them in 2010.
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The completion % is the last thing I'd look at. It's affected by parameters that are not the same from team to team, the two biggest being weather and protection. Peyton Manning has the BEST circumstances of these two factors. Would anyone not concede that Fitzpatrick dealt with one of the worst combinations of these two factors?
Fitzpatrick was good at avoiding sacks and making 3rd and long conversions both of which hurt completion %. He demonstrated a package of skills that allowed him to deal with and often beat pressure. I think it is the single most important skillset for a QB to have and QB passer rating does not properly quantify it.
Failing to deal with pressure will chase QBs from the NFL (Culpepper, Bledsoe, Losman, Edwards, George, Everett, etc.) while beating it will define success and is my best definition of "it." It's a package of arm, feet, brains, and recognition/reaction that allows a QB to best utilize the time and space he has available. I think Fitzpatrick showed that he has an effective combination of these skills and abilities which means he can get better. He is QB passer rating plus.
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According to his presser, Gailey
Interestingly enough, Gailey (who watches all the film and all the practice) refers to Fitzpatrick as having accuracy
I wonder what he sees (or how he judges) that is different than everyone here who tags Fitz as "inaccurate"?
This hidden part of the game has always intrigued me. The HC knows the play call and if was changed. He knows if a breakdown occurred and who was respoonsible. If a receiver ran the wrong route, missed a sight adjust, or if a protection failure was overcome. I suspect that Fitz has been good at avoiding disaster in the face of multiple breakdowns, made quick reads and gotten rid of the ball to avoid sacks.
In short Chan would know every obstacle that was presented and how Fitz handled it. These post game film sessions and the conclusions the coaching staff draws from them are pivotal to building a team but as fans we are lagely ignorant of them.
I think that Gailey was honest about Brohm's play. He wasn't errant or careless with the ball nor was unaware of what the plays required. The speed of the game was a couple beats too fast for him and those disastrous plays are the result.
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There is much riding on the next 3 for most of the roster. They have many guys that barely have a foot in the NFL door. Be a high draft pick and get big money and you will stick around (McCargo, McKelvin) without justifying it on the field. As a free agent or low draft pick you have something to prove everytime you step on the field. Fitz is the epitome of that. So the OP is a legit question.
Some looking at the normal QB stats are saying that Fitz's play has slipped over the last 7. I say this: The Bills are a Lindell missed 2nd kick and a Steve Johnson dropped TD away from being 5 and 2 in their last 7. I do not think this is a team that could be within a sniff of 5 and 2 if the QB play was substandard.
Some of the quantifiable things that passer rating does not account for that most all football fans would affirm as important to QB play are avoiding sacks and fumbles, converting 3rd downs, being efficient in the redzone, running ability, and taking hits without letting their play suffer. It could be demonstrated that Fitz is a plus in all these areas making him everything his passer rating says he is and more. He is PASSER RATING PLUS.
In these last three games he has a chance to give further evidence of this. If he out plays Henne and Sanchez and thereby denying their teams a playoff spot, we would all take notice. If he stands toe to toe with Brady in a game that means something to the Pats (maybe for the #1 AFC seed)and sent the Hoodie to a post game press conference having to explain why his team lost to the Bills in such an important game, the entire NFL would take notice.
In short, be the difference, lead the team, and make a statement about this team's relevence to 2011.
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In terms of the breakdown of the incomplete throws there are some other categories hidden in the "bad throw" group. "Receiver runs wrong route," " QB makes a throw to avoid a sack," "QB makes a throw to stop the clock" (maybe this is the category "other")
QB rating does little to reward the 3rd and long comnversion rate. Trent's strategy of throwing short, completing the pass or maybe taking a sack on third and long is much more QB passer rating friendly. Taking a chance and throwing the ball 17 yards down the field on 3rd and 15 is not good for the completion%.
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In Fred's case, having broken a bone in his hand in August would have something to do with it. I broke my 4th metacarpal in June and, after having it in a cast for 6 weeks, that hand was mostly useless for another month afterward.
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Here's what I posted to start a thread "Keep an Open Mind":
Lot's of people wanting to say that Ryan Fitzpatrick is or isn't worthy of being the Bills" #1 QB going forward. I cite the following:
1) Quick decisions & quick release = very tough to sack.
2) Stands up in the face of pressure and delivers accurate throws-downfield. I'd like to see the numbers on this but when a pass rusher is coming in unblocked he does not wilt. He's got guts and can take a hit. HE CAN BEAT PRESSURE!!!
3) While he has a few flyers-he very rarely has a misread. Wunderlick score aside, he obviously has a clue.
4) While they haven't won much with him, the losses are looking alot like those they had in 1986, if you catch my point.
5) The offensive line and receivers were supposed to be bottom of barrel. Well they don't look like it with him playing. Raising the level of play of one's teammates is the primary sign of a great player, in my way of thinking.
6) He can make plays in the "other" category. A scramble and a dive for a first down or a key block when a back reverses field. I am waiting for him to closeline a defender after a pick or fumble recovery. I think he'd deliver a blow. He is a football player.
I think the Bills could win 3 or 4 of their last 7 and go into next year looking like an organization that has an idea. Having a smart, tough, quick thinking, gunslinging, humble, team first and calm under pressure QB to lead them isn't so bad.
All this says in my mind that as fans we should let this play out and not let Fitzpatrick's draft round or college team cloud our judgement. Keep an open mind and let his play speak for itself. It's been so long since we have seen consistently productive QB play that it seems many of us have forgotten what it looks like. I think Chan knows it when he sees it.
Fitzpatrick is only 14 months older than Kelly was that 1986 season so there is tread left on those tires. Two USFL seasons and Ryan's 5 years in the league are roughly equivalent in experience although Ryan has never gone through a preseason as "the man." So I agree with the analogy (it's an optimistic one) but it most directly applies to the QB, coach and offense. Hopefully the rest of the pieces fall in line.
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I wonder if Stevie had a TD celebration planned for today's game. If so, I wonder if he was thinking about his celebration while the ball was coming to his hands. Regardless, Chan has mentioned the humble/humbled line twice in two weeks. Both times it was directed to the play of Steve Johnson. The first in reponse to the "Why so serious?" celebration and the second in regards to his 5 or 6 drop day. The first I took as a warning the second as a "I tried to warn you" admonishment.
I get the impression that Gailey is using the adversity that comes with the failure in these close games to teach these guys how to be pros. They may learn faster under these circumstances because the lessons are more painful.
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This play caught a ton of flack. Was it catchable? Yes. Was it high and behind the WR? Yes. Is this a ball that is routinely caught in the NFL? No.
When throwing a slant pass the ball can not slow the WR down and it most certainly cannot be high. That is one of the very simple basics of quarterbacking. This pass was high and did not lead the WR. Being slightly behind the WR allowed the DB to make a play on the ball and resulted in the WR not catching it. It was high which made it a tough catch and the reason the S was able to pick it off. If the ball was leading the WR and at waist height or lower like it should have been, the DB cannot make a play on the ball and even if SJ doesnt catch it, it wouldnt have been picked. That is why I put the blame on this pick on Fitz.
This is why I am always complaining about Fitz's accuracy. This is why I dont feel confident in him being able to take us to the playoffs. This is the same reason why I dont liek Mallet as a prospect.
We are 0-3 in overtime, and dont have a good record in the 4th Qrter either. A poorly placed pass, like this one, like the one vrs KC, like the one vrs Balt, they play a huge part in why we are 2-9. If he cannot take us to the Playoffs, he is not my QB of the future.
ok I have a picture here that I tired to upload but it didnt work? Any advice?
It may have been high or maybe Stevie was supposed to take two more steps up field before the break but cheated his route and blew the timing. We don't know these things for sure. The whole accuracy issue is bogus in my book. Trent was constantly throwing sideways to stationery targets and people were convinced he was poised and accurate. Now we are watching a QB throw the ball down the field to moving targets with plenty of YAC potential but requiring precise timing between QB and receiver. It's football worth watching.
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Any rookie quarterback or even just a young inexperieced one playing on this team and we would still be talking about how bad the o-line and receivers were. The national guys would be saying how the rookie "didn't have a chance" and that Buffalo was not a good situation to develop a guy. Fitz can beat pressure, get the ball out quickly and still get it down field. He is optimizing time and space. This is a rare,conversation changing skill, IMO. If this is true I think we see two or three more wins. The Steelers would be a good one to get.
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Maybe the time out was arranged prior to the snap. "Hey Ed, if we don't get in we want a time out." That would predispose him toward a quick whistle (the whole it's when I thought about blowing it dead not when anyone actually heard it) and then an instantaneous timeout. Must say I was very angry about the call. Might have been in too much of a rant for my wife's and mother's comfort.
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The Steelers represent a huge opportunity for the team and Fitzpatrick. Beating that team would not go unnoticed.
Lots of Steeler fans down here in the Southern Tier and at my workplace. Shutting them up would be sweet.
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Could have easily been talking about the declining Dallas Cowboys he coached in his first go round. That could not have been an easy group to coach. Maybe the worst. Aging superstars with big bank accounts whose best football was behind them and played under the direction of other coaches.
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You gotta wonder why he's been on 3 teams in 5 seasons.
A fair question. I think that in the NFL that if there is a quarterback ahead of you on the roster that has been drafted and/or paid to be "the Man" then your options are limited. He was traded to one team and chose another. As a free agent he must have had other options. As smart as he is, it's not surprising he'd look around and identify the best opportunity. Not surprising he'd pick the Bills-it was a wise choice.
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Finishing strong would legitimize this coaching staff. That would be huge. A win against any playoff contender in a meaningful game especially if it were the Jets or Pats would be a shot across the bow for next year. This would be a way bigger boost to the men in the locker room than a few spots in the draft order. Git 'er done Fitz.
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Seriously...You just don't get it...I really don't give a rats a** what the point is...You can't compare Fitz to Kelly or Manning...It makes you look like you don't understand the intangibles that separate the good from the elite...Granted every elite QB had bad Games...Of coarse they did...But they also have intangibles that CLEARLY separate them from the pack...And since when did anyone around here care what Jerry Sullivan wrote?...
And I missed NOTHING the past 40 years of Buffalo Bills Football...You know what we called the people who were backing Reich over Kelly? Idiots...The exact same thing I'm going to say about anyone comparing Fitz to Kelly, Manning, or any other lock 1st Ballot Hall Of Fame QB...
I really have nothing against Fitz...But no question I don't believe he's good enough to be the long term future of this Franchise at QB...ESPECIALLY if they get a chance to take an elite Prospect like Luck at #1 Overall...Now if for some reason the Bills don't get the chance to take Luck or Mallet I'm fine with Fitz in the meantime...But I'm not going to swept away by him either...He's not an elite NFL QB...And he probably never will be...
This is getting interesting. Yes I can compare his play this year to Kelly's in 1986. Their losses are very similar. Just like I can compare their ages (soon to be 28 for Fitz while Kelly was comparably 14 1/2 months younger. I hold this as an example to refute those convinced the late game failures are evidence of what his future production is to be like. As far as the "immeasurables", he has some going on. I'll start with 99th percentile smart, gutsy, and having the support of the team (he even passed the T.O. test-not easy to do.) He also has no problem standing up and owning his mistakes. Something you'll recall Jim Kelly having a big problem with early in his career. Oops! I just contrasted Fitzpatrick to Kelly. Am I allowed to do that without having my football intelligence questioned?
Poll on whether Fitz is the right guy or not
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by JESSEFEFFER
Neither championship game was a template for the importance of elite QB play..........
Sanchez
20 of 33 for 233, 2TDs and a passer rating of 102.2
Roethlisberger
10 of 19 for 133, O TDs and 2 pics for a passer rating of 35.5
Rodgers
17 of 30 for 244, 0 TDs and 2 pics for a passer rating of 55.4
Cutler
left the game with a knee injury
.....but let's not let the actual facts get in the way of believing what we want to. Just saying.