JESSEFEFFER
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Posts posted by JESSEFEFFER
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The position of the wrist at the moment a baseball is released puts much more strain on the elbow than what a football does. Other pitches made to create different spin and cause additional movement, are often more the cause of elbow problems. QBs would be more likely to suffer injuries to their wrist and shoulder than to their elbow but that burden is more likely the result of cumulative throws made during overly aggressive training than during a game, imo. Being tackled by a 300+ lb defender with the elbow or shoulder first to contact the ground is the biggest threat to a QB's arm joints (think Josh's A/C sprain--non throwing side--suffered vs. Raiders.) This was a landing with full body weight cheapshot, imo, that was not called.
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Without wanting to bother reading their content, I wonder if this is an example of recency bias regarding the :13 debacle or maybe an assessment of the last season in general. All the wins by double digits (talent gets the credit) and most of the losses by one score or less (head coaches blamed for game management.) The other odd thing about last year was how good Tyler Bass was but never got called on to make the difference with a game deciding kick.
I do not sense that 2021 was Sean's best year navigating through the schedule with in-game decision making. Not necessarily consistently bad but consistently less than ideal outcomes. Ex. Josh Allen on a QB sneak vs. the Titans? Should be money.
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Nathan Peterman looked like a Pro Bowl caliber QB in the summer of 2018 too.
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16 hours ago, Nextmanup said:
Well, there hasn't been a "home field advantage" in the NFL for several years now, and not just because of COVID.
That whole thing about crowd noise on the road is proving to be a bit of a myth, at least lately.
I think this is tied most closely to the elimination of the blackout rule. More fans watching their teams on television means less demand for seats = more empty seats and/or more filled by fans of the visiting team. This all means a less hostile venue for the road team.
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19 hours ago, Big Turk said:
I still think it has to do with Allen becoming too hyped at home, even though he plays music to calm himself down, etc...
My basis for thinking this is because in 2020 when there were no fans, the splits were nearly identical, home and away, although he was still slightly better on the road. However, once the fans came back, again he was significantly better on the road, just as he was the prior year...which is pretty clear evidence that he either tries to do too much at home, is too pumped up to try and wow the home fans or there is something else going on. His rookie year he was pretty much even...mostly bad stat wise in both places.
2019 Split
2020 Split(no fans)
2021 Split(fans again)
Career
Don't get me wrong, I love the fact he lives for going into other teams houses, taking their lunch money and then laughing in their faces as they cry for Mommy, but it would be nice to see him get a little closer to his road performances at home on balance...
Also...the "more" primetime the game, the better he plays...improving each timeslot from early to afternoon to night.
Weather, weather, weather. The worst weather he plays in are home games. Usually at least two every year. I am speaking mostly of wind which kills many portions of a passing game. Yes, he can still function better than the opposition QB, but his passing stats take a dive.
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Josh is our very own, NFL comp to Roy Hobbs in the making, the Americanized version of the Greek Hero Myth. Except he's real and we get to watch him become the Best There Ever Was but that almost never was because he almost never got the chance.
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On 3/19/2022 at 7:10 PM, BullBuchanan said:
That's also not really true. If you look at his draft results, he hit on a ton of guys that had NFL careers. Not all of them got resigned here and most didn't turn into superstars, but they didn't bust out of the league either. What hindered his legacy is the QB position, as is the death knell for most GMs. I'd be very interested to know who said what in the decision to pass on Mahomes and Watson and whose call it was ultimately.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htmWhy would the Pegulas let their lame duck GM take the next shot at a franchise QB? That was clearly going to be the next GM's primary mission. That's the way I saw it anyways. The Bills almost screwed that up by making the playoffs meaning Beane needed two trades to get to #7 and draft Josh.
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I would not want to write the NFL story on any of these three. AJE is very quick off the ball and good with his hands. Groot has many great traits and is very inexperienced. He has lots of room to grow yet still made an impact in his rookie year. I'm not as sure about Basham's game, I just haven't seen much of it yet. Calling any of them a bust at this point is much like spiking the ball at the 25. The fact that the Bills let Addison, Obada and Hughes go tells me they think Epenesa, Groot and Boogie are ready to deliver more. It will be a big year in the careers of all 3.
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12 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:
The refs happened.
Always thought the Jags sideline baited the SJ into the call. It's stuck as my go to example of how that can happen.
j
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2 hours ago, GolfandBills said:
Because the media hyped him up to be something he wasn’t and people soak up whatever they are told
I would say that this is somewhat true. He is a punter with one year of experience at the collegiate level and he lacks all the nuances to punting at the professional level. But let's not pretend that it needs to be that big of a challenge. He isn't as skilled as he needs to be but I would not think it will be that difficult to make big improvements before and during his rookie season. He is going to get the coaching and time to do it like never before. It's almost the same "pro ready" vs. "high ceiling" discussion we went through with Josh over the last 4 years.
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First -of- all, much like the rule for life on a family farm, do not give nicknames to players before they make the roster. Second, my suggestion is Matt "The Risin' "Araiza. His walkout song could be two bars from the chorus of Springsteen's song.
kicking-it-san-diego-style-araiza-novak-team-up
If you go to Nick Novak's Twitter feed there are several posted training videos. One handed catches of long snaps, 50+ yard punts with 5.5 second hang time. I think Haack working next to him is likely to experience punter envy just from the sound made when Araiza's foot strikes the ball. He could make punting into funting.
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15 hours ago, QCity said:
Pretty much where I'm at. I like Elam, but trading that 4th didn't seem shrewd. I think we saw the consequences of that by overdrafting Bernard in the 3rd, something that might not have happened if we had that 4th rd pick.
Everyone in the NFL world knew the Bills primary need was CB. The Bills saw only one CB worthy of #25 remaining on their board. If any other CB needy team saw it the same way, they could trade to GET #24 from the Cowboys and snipe the Bills most favored player. The 4th rounder was merely a proactive measure to insure that they got the player they most wanted and expected to play the most snaps in 2022. It would have been a mini disaster to sit back and let that happen.
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21 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:
Why are punters and kickers valued so little in the draft I just don’t understand it
I think it is this. No one keeps a developmental kicker on their roster. Some have been on practice squads since they were expanded but are, of course, subject to claims. So, the kickers that are drafted have to be good enough in their rookie training camp to win the job. Many bounce around year to year while maturing physically and professionally before they claim a job. NFL teams have little patience for rookie kickers costing them wins while waiting for them to refine NFL level skills. Thus, training camp competitions between incumbents and FAs with some NFL experience are often the preferred method. This is probably more true for PK than for punters.
Gary Anderson and Dustin Hopkins are classic Bills examples of this.
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On 4/29/2022 at 10:51 PM, ScorpionZero said:
We're just gonna have to do our due diligence on this one, before we freak out.
A more athletic version of Matt Milano. I got there.
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10 hours ago, HappyDays said:
My dream pick in the 2nd round is Alec Pierce. I would also be happy with Calvin Austin or the best OL left on the board when we pick. I'm good with Breece Hall if he makes it to 57 although I doubt he will. I'm not saying 100% no to a defensive player but would rather take offense now.
I could not see any record of the Bills having shown any interest in him, which is weird to me. Elite traits (RAS 9.9+), good hands, effective blocker, engineering degree in 3 1/2 years, was only a 3 star recruit with mostly MAC offers that worked his way up depth chart at Cincinnati. 6'3". 210 lbs. with a 40" vertical is a crazy tough matchup for a DB. I saw him dinged for not having much YAC but when I watched the number of catches he made where he had to slow down and adjust his route, turn into the defender and go up and get the ball, often for a TD, that's all the explanation I needed as to why. There were nearly a dozen or so catches like that. Not many smoke or bubble screens in his highlights. He was more likely a blocker for those plays.
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I generally appreciate extremely talented athletes who who embrace their opportunities and show passion for their their sport, family, teammates and the communities that support them. When they are inclined to go out of their way to lift others up they enter a new category of humanity for me. Huge negatives are reserved for those who demonstrate a sense of entitlement or who publicly point fingers at those around them in an attempt to deflect criticism from themselves. So, by all these measures Josh would score very well.
But, when the national media starts going overboard in praise of an individual there is a natural, knee jerk reaction on my part to reject the hype.
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13 hours ago, Captain_Quint said:
What are they gonna do, strip them of all their titles??
Probably make them give up their rights to Baker Mayfield and declare him a free agent. That will teach them.
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22 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:
For as good as Josh is in the clutch (he has the ice cold gene), it's weird how many close games Buffalo lost last year.
This season, expect a "regression" back to the mean--i.e. we should win a bunch of close ones.
Those were weird close game outcomes. It's also weird that Tyler Bass was not directly involved in the outcomes. Someone did a preseason list of the 10 most important Bills players to the success of the 2021 season. I thought Bass should definitely be on the list. Good to great team, playing close, important games against strong opponents = FG kicker deciding the outcome. Blowout wins and strange close game losses without Bass being a deciding factor. He always looked ready to go make one but never got the chance to have the ball on his foot with the game on the line. Weird is the word.
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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
I haven't run the numbers, and wouldn't even know how to, but I think this guy is relying on all the studies that show that investing in stadiums don't show a positive return to the state doing the investing.
I think in this case, however, a study would show it's not such a bad deal. It now seems clear that if the state didn't put up the money, the Bills would leave Buffalo. That's because the Pegulas were clear that it made no economic sense for them to build a stadium, and the NFL is insisting, consistent with its stadium policies that apply to all teams, that the Bills get a new stadium. Put those two thoughts together, and if the state doesn't contribute to a stadium, the Bills will leave the state.
So, the financial comparison is between investing in the stadium and not investing and losing the Bills. An $800 million investment at a 3% return brings in $24 million per year. States generally don't do that kind of analysis in looking at projects - for example, they don't refuse to build a highway for $800 million if they can't get $24 million a year back somehow. Instead, they assume that there are a variety of benefits that make having the highway a good thing for the state. Still, if you look at the economics of it, the state loses a lot of money if the Bills leave. First, there's income tax on the player salaries. On a $120 million cap at, say, 8%, that's $10 million a year. And as the salary cap goes up, that tax revenue. In ten years, if the cap is at $200 million, since more of the salaries will be taxed at higher rates, the state's looking at maybe $20 million a year. All that revenue is gone if the Bills leave.
So, just looking at player income tax, the state can expect a decent return on the investment. Front office and coaches' salary probably total another $20 million, which is another couple of million in tax. (Pegulas apparently don't pay NYS income tax.)
Then there's sales tax on tickets. Four percent on 60,000 tickets at, say, $100 apiece. That's $240,000 in sales tax per game, times eight games (to be conservative), there's another $2 million. Again, over a 30-year deal, the ticket prices will go up, so the return will increase. But just in year one, hard numbers, there's a $14 million return on the investment.
None of that counts the indirect benefits of having games there - the additional income tax paid by game-day personnel, restaurant and hotel income and sales taxes, sales tax on Bills stuff. There's a whole collection of indirect tax revenue that disappears when the Bills disappear.
Not to mention the tolls I pay driving through the entire damn state eight games a year! That adds up.
Whether this deal will allow the state to recover every nickel it spends, I don't know, but I think it's pretty clear that having a new stadium and keeping the Bills is closer to a break-even deal than this guy is saying, when compared to having no stadium and no football team in Buffalo.
You even picked out way out of date salary cap figures. It's 208 million this year and likely close to 250 million in two years which is why Beane is spending like he is. Game weekend economic activity for hotels, bars, restaurants, team merchandise etc. is not nothing either. This Chautauqua County resident has very little reason to spend money in Erie County other than on the Bills and occasional BNI airport usage. How much is paid in local and county property taxes by Bills employees? Much of that goes away if the team does. As for the stadium itself, how much economic return will stay local in terms of construction wages and building materials? I hope NYS contractors make money on the steel and cement, plumbing and electrical work. It's not like it's a billion dollars directly paid into the Pegula's pockets. It's not a money making deal for the state or county but I bet it's closer to a zero net exchange as you suggest.
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4 hours ago, eball said:
I am guessing -- but do not know for certain -- that this is probably just CYA language to make sure people don't think they automatically get playoff tickets when they buy season tickets. I bet if you purchase playoff tickets through your ST account they are added to the card.
The use of the future tense indicates to me that it's a change in policy. "...will NOT be loaded on the season ticket card, and the card will not be valid for entry." I do hope you are right.
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23 minutes ago, Greg S said:
I am actually surprised they still do. Given the way the world is today I just figured every team does mobile tickets. Especially post Covid. I know this past season MetLife also went cashless. Everything is scanned now.
They are scanned if they are cards or mobile tickets.
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21 minutes ago, BillsPride12 said:
This has to be a new rule just put in place then because I used my card to enter into the playoff game last season.
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I prefer the cards. I do not trust the performance of my phone in all weather conditions and life events. Drop them on the asphalt and they do not bounce. Apparently, the cards can not be used for entry to any potential home playoff games, which is both weird and disappointing.
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Bills vs. Phins on 9/25
in Tailgate Central
Posted
First, with acknowledgement to BuffaloBillies for our collaborative effort:
Tua needs an "N"
to make his name aquatic
Squish the Tunafish!
Second, I had some airline credit to use so I booked a flight to Miami on 9/23 and will fly back on 9/26. I will take my almost teenage son with me (don't tell anyone--he will miss a half and whole day of school on Friday/Monday) and hope to have a great time with Bills Mafia in enemy territory. Wondering about where to stay as a strategic home base close to where the Mafia will be congregating, otherwise I was thinking of staying close to the airport. Don't plan on a car rental, maybe an Uber or hitch a ride to the game. Maybe there are some well thought strategies to arrange some mass transportation to Hard Rock.